Mantle or Others?

[Tomi]

Asking just out of curiosity and nothing else. If you guys had $30,000 and you had to invest in cards long term, do you buy the perfectly centered 52 Topps Mantle in the highest grade you can or do you buy RC's of Mays, Aaron, Clemente, etc. that amount to $30,000? A couple of collector friends of mine said the 52 Mantle and I agreed, but just curious how many here would go with the other RC's over the Mantle. Would you put all your eggs in one basket or no.
I know there are many single cards for $30,000 that would be a good buy but I ask about the 52 Mantle because of it's status in the hobby. Let's just say post-war cards only in this situation.

[Seven]

30K would probably get you (on a good day) a decently nice 52 Mantle in the PSA 3 Range, if we're going by recent sales of course. It's a tough call, I think Mantle will always have some buying power because of the name and the fact that the 52 Topps is so iconic, and as time goes on, I don't see why the prices wouldn't go up.

That being said you could get some very nice Mays and Aaron Rookies for that price, and not to sound morbid, but I'd wager once they both pass on we'll see a brief surge in their RC prices.

[GasHouseGang]

Historically since I've been collecting, it's always been Mantle over nearly anyone else that played during that time frame.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

I would get a slightly lower grade Mantle, freeing up money to purchase some of the other players mentioned as well.

[investinrookies]

52T Mantle all day long, no question in my mind. However, not just any 52T mantle, it must be centered with good registration, which will be very hard to find especially in the 30k range.

[thecomebacker]

Originally Posted by investinrookies

52T Mantle all day long, no question in my mind. However, not just any 52T mantle, it must be centered with good registration, which will be very hard to find especially in the 30k range.

Agree with him. You won’t be able to find a perfectly centered 52 Topps Mantle for 30k anymore even if it is a PSA 2.5 unless you hit one of those hidden treasures in an estate sale or something. Nice 52 Mantles shot up like mad during Covid. Anything nicely centered (not perfect) with nice eye appeal is probably 40k and up now. The same card was probably 25-30k at the beginning of the year. You’ll still be able to get a nice 52 for 30k, but probably won’t be as nice and centered as you were hoping. Either way 52 Topps Mickey all day and night over the others.

[todeen]

Its always harder to buy the more expensive card. Buy the Mantle. Then pick off the others when you can, or if you're interested.

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[investinrookies]

Originally Posted by thecomebacker

Agree with him. You won’t be able to find a perfectly centered 52 Topps Mantle for 30k anymore even if it is a PSA 2.5 unless you hit one of those hidden treasures in an estate sale or something. Nice 52 Mantles shot up like mad during Covid. Anything nicely centered (not perfect) with nice eye appeal is probably 40k and up now. The same card was probably 25-30k at the beginning of the year. You’ll still be able to get a nice 52 for 30k, but probably won’t be as nice and centered as you were hoping. Either way 52 Topps Mickey all day and night over the others.

Centered 52T mantles have become next to impossible to find and very few are perfectly centered. When a nice centered example does pop up it normally commands a huge premium over the average prices for the grade, in most cases at least double if not more. The 52T mantle is THE card to get and defines the hobby, if your going to pony up the cash for one it makes the most since to be patient and save more money for a centered copy. As I’ve said and it’s mentioned above, a nicely centered example will cost you well over 30K if you can even find one. Don’t look for a specific grade just go for centering and overall eye appeal which make that card in my opinion.


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[investinrookies]

A couple nice 52T Mantles up at PWCC...the SGC 4 is especially nice with that centering. To my point in my last post, that thing is going to go way over the average price, so hard to find like that. The 6.5 is also nice with good centering better than most, but the SGC 4 is a thing of beauty....

[Tomi]

This one just sold for $38K with the BP at Heritage last month.

[investinrookies]

Originally Posted by Tomi

This one just sold for $38K with the BP at Heritage last month.

that one has decent centering

[jchcollins]

If you are buying purely for investment and a collection of any sort to enjoy more than one card is not a concern, then yes - go for the '52 Mantle. There are others which might do as well as an investment piece, but hard to think of a single card apt to do better.

Me personally, it's about the cards. Not that I can afford a '52 Mantle anyway, but if I could I would have misgivings about spending it all just on one card.

[investinrookies]

A very nice and well centered SGC 4 52T Mantle went for nearly 58K last night. Goes to show how serious collectors will pay up for a nice copy of this iconic card. As stated before, the well centered copies command huge premiums.

[samosa4u]

For $30,000 USD, you should try to pick up the nicest Leaf Jackie you can find. PSA 2 examples are already nearing $10,000 USD and one day they will be going for double. My generation is really going to drive up the price of this card.

[jayshum]

Wow. I hadn't realized what the Leaf Robinson was going for now. I bought a PSA 1 about a year ago for $1600. It was rough but not the worst 1 out there.
I just checked eBay and a 1 with significant paper loss on the back and heavy creasing sold for $3500 2 weeks ago. Another 1 that doesn't look too bad just sold for almost $5K a few days ago. Unbelievable. I'm glad I pulled the trigger on mine when I did.

[investinrookies]

The leaf robinson rc is quickly becoming if not already one of those cards that transcends the hobby, a must have. In a few years it will be to the level of a 52T Mantle, I believe that now.

[Exhibitman]

Babe fucking ruth!

[ALR-bishop]

Originally Posted by investinrookies

The leaf robinson rc is quickly becoming if not already one of those cards that transcends the hobby, a must have. In a few years it will be to the level of a 52T Mantle, I believe that now.

Come back and let us know if you still believe it then 😊

[Gary Dunaier]

Originally Posted by investinrookies

The leaf robinson rc is quickly becoming if not already one of those cards that transcends the hobby, a must have. In a few years it will be to the level of a 52T Mantle, I believe that now.

What made you arrive at that opinion?

I'm not trying to "challenge" you or imply that you don't know what you're talking about. This is the first that I'VE heard about it, and maybe it just reflects that I don't follow the vintage ballcard hobby as closely as many here on the Net 54 do, but what you said is news to me.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Gary Dunaier

What made you arrive at that opinion?



I'm not trying to "challenge" you or imply that you don't know what you're talking about. This is the first that I'VE heard about it, and maybe it just reflects that I don't follow the vintage ballcard hobby as closely as many here on the Net 54 do, but what you said is news to me.

I'm not certain it will rise to the level of 52T Mantle that quickly, but I agree that Robinson is very important to a younger generation. His story is taught in schools, Mantle is nobody to kids who know little about baseball. All Robinson cards will increase rapidly in price as younger generations gain meaningful employment. That Robinson movie that came out 5 years ago, with a rap and hip hop soundtrack...I had soccer kids who would never ever play baseball talking to me about Jackie Robinson.

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[rats60]

Originally Posted by Gary Dunaier

What made you arrive at that opinion?

I'm not trying to "challenge" you or imply that you don't know what you're talking about. This is the first that I'VE heard about it, and maybe it just reflects that I don't follow the vintage ballcard hobby as closely as many here on the Net 54 do, but what you said is news to me.

It has tripled in value over the last year and is now the most valuable normal print run rookie card, passing the 51B Mantle. Only the 52T Mantle is more popular and expensive among cards with a normal print run. Mantle's popularity is based on being the star of 50s Yankees when card collecting became popular. Those kids grew up and drove the price of that card with their disposal income. As that generation dies off, it is up to further generations to drive demand, but they have no personal connection to that card.

Robinson's legacy is more lasting as the player who broke the color barrier. He has appeal that goes beyond sports and kids who collected cards. I wonder how much the current BLM and social justice movement has in the current run up in price and these things are not going away. There is also the potential for generations of minorities who have been depressed economically to see more disposal income because of these movements. It has been joked that card shows are a bunch of overweight old white men. What happens if they start to look more like America?

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by rats60

It has tripled in value over the last year and is now the most valuable normal print run rookie card, passing the 51B Mantle. Only the 52T Mantle is more popular and expensive among cards with a normal print run. Mantle's popularity is based on being the star of 50s Yankees when card collecting became popular. Those kids grew up and drove the price of that card with their disposal income. As that generation dies off, it is up to further generations to drive demand, but they have no personal connection to that card.

Robinson's legacy is more lasting as the player who broke the color barrier. He has appeal that goes beyond sports and kids who collected cards. I wonder how much the current BLM and social justice movement has in the current run up in price and these things are not going away. There is also the potential for generations of minorities who have been depressed economically to see more disposal income because of these movements. It has been joked that card shows are a bunch of overweight old white men. What happens if they start to look more like America?

I tend to agree with this.

Mantle just doesn’t have any claim to importance other than having been the most popular player for a few years when a lot of baby boomers were kids and collected cards.

He isn’t Robinson who broke the color barrier.

He isn’t Ruth who revolutionized the game.

He isn’t seriously mentioned when arguments about the best player ever come up. Its hard to even make the case that he was the best player in his own time.

He didn’t set any major records.

It really does seem like his relative popularity in the hobby has nowhere to go but down once all the people who loved him when they were kids pass on and future generations ask themselves why this guy is so key.

[Tomi]

Are you guys serious? His popularity will go down once his fans start to pass on? Maybe go on baseball reference and see the stats Mantle led the league in his career. The guy was an absolute monster. Even with a broken down body and missing games he still was a league leader. Legendary post season HR's and 7 WS championships. Cobb and Ruth seem to getting more and more popular all the time and their fans have been dead for a long time.

[davidan]

Originally Posted by Tomi

Are you guys serious? His popularity will go down once his fans start to pass on? Maybe go on baseball reference and see the stats Mantle led the league in his career. The guy was an absolute monster. Even with a broken down body and missing games he still was a league leader. Legendary post season HR's and 7 WS championships. Cobb and Ruth seem to getting more and more popular all the time and their fans have been dead for a long time.

+1 my thoughts exactly. Mantle will always be a solid bet and an icon.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Tomi

Are you guys serious? His popularity will go down once his fans start to pass on? Maybe go on baseball reference and see the stats Mantle led the league in his career. The guy was an absolute monster. Even with a broken down body and missing games he still was a league leader. Legendary post season HR's and 7 WS championships. Cobb and Ruth seem to getting more and more popular all the time and their fans have been dead for a long time.

Go look at Ted Williams. He missed 5 years in the military, yet Black Ink Williams 122, Mantle 62. Williams used to be more than both Mantle and Robinson and now he is less. No one is saying that Mantles are going to drop, but Jackie catching him is definitely realistic.

[Exhibitman]

We should not conflate fame of specific players transcending the sport and impacting value of the cards with the fame of specific cards in the hobby transcending the player and impacting the value. Ruth, Gehrig, Robinson, Jordan, Ali, those guys transcend the sport. If you look at them in terms of global card issue diversity, there is no contest: Muhammad Ali has cards issued in every corner of the world, and Jordan is a distant second.

I don't think Mantle does, but Mantle's 1952 Topps card transcends the player within the hobby. it has been the marquee postwar baseball card for 40 years--the major boom in price started in around 1980--and is likely to remain so. It may very well be overtaken in terms of value by the MJ or LeBron RCs in the future because of the younger skew of their fans, the international sport market, and the demise of actual Mantle fans.

[Tomi]

Originally Posted by rats60

Go look at Ted Williams. He missed 5 years in the military, yet Black Ink Williams 122, Mantle 62. Williams used to be more than both Mantle and Robinson and now he is less. No one is saying that Mantles are going to drop, but Jackie catching him is definitely realistic.

He missed three years to military not five but still played a year longer than Mantle (19 yrs. to 18 yrs.)He would be treated differently if he won titles and had a long and successful post season career, but never won anything. You could also put Stan Musial on the list also, very little respect for his accomplishments compared to others.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by rats60

Go look at Ted Williams. He missed 5 years in the military, yet Black Ink Williams 122, Mantle 62. Williams used to be more than both Mantle and Robinson and now he is less. No one is saying that Mantles are going to drop, but Jackie catching him is definitely realistic.

I think Jackie catching Mantle's cards, outside the 52 is very realistic as well. I think Mantle's name will still be relevant, even as some time passes because of how often Trout's compared to The Mick.

I think the black ink argument is a little disingenuous to Mantle at least in terms of what we know of stats today, but that's a different argument, the only player in a post war era to mirror peak Ted production was Bonds and he did it with a little extra help. But both are arguments for a different discussion!

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Tomi

He missed three years to military not five but still played a year longer than Mantle (19 yrs. to 18 yrs.)He would be treated differently if he won titles and had a long and successful post season career, but never won anything. You could also put Stan Musial on the list also, very little respect for his accomplishments compared to others.

Williams spent most of 1952-53 in the Korean War. He only played 43 games total those 2 seasons and those 5 seasons were in his prime. Williams won the Triple Crown in 42 and 47 on both sides of his 3 years in WW2 as well as AL MVP in 46. He led the AL in OBP/SLG/OPS+ in 1951 and 1954 on both sides of his Korean War service. Mantle played over 100 more games in his career because of Williams 5 years in the military.

Ty Cobb never won a championship and didn’t perform up to his standards in the postseason. That hasn’t hurt his card prices. Williams went to a down franchise that hadn’t won anything in 20 years. The one year they did make the series, Williams hurt his elbow and played injured in the Series. It is hard to hold that against him, it is a team sport. Also, lack of postseason success isn’t hurting Mike Trout Card values either.

On the other hand, Mantle ended up on a franchise that was in the middle of 5 WS Championships in a row and had won 13 in 28 years when he joined them. Then, before the 1955 season, Arnold Johnson, one of the owners of Yankee Stadium, bought the A’s with the help of the Yankees ownership and turned them into a Yankees farm team. The Yankees proceeded to win 9 AL pennants in 10 years. The 1961 Yankees considered one of the best teams of all time had 10 players Johnson had “traded” to the Yankees. Mantle’s rings mean a lot to Yankees fans of 51-62, but in the long run they won’t to those not alive during that time.

Stan Musial has 3 rings, 3 MVPs and better numbers than Mantle, but his cards are even cheaper. When I started collecting in the 60s, Williams and Musial were the guys everyone wanted most, now not so much. It can happen to Mantle also.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Seven

I think Jackie catching Mantle's cards, outside the 52 is very realistic as well. I think Mantle's name will still be relevant, even as some time passes because of how often Trout's compared to The Mick.

I think the black ink argument is a little disingenuous to Mantle at least in terms of what we know of stats today, but that's a different argument, the only player in a post war era to mirror peak Ted production was Bonds and he did it with a little extra help. But both are arguments for a different discussion!

Tomi said to go look at baseball reference and see all the times Mantle led the league. Black ink is the measure of leading the league, so it is a valid point. I don’t know what other stats you want to bring up, but WAR Williams 121.9 Mantle 110.2 even though Mantle played 109 games more. OPS + Williams 191 Mantle 172 despite Williams spending 5 prime years in the military. Any other “modern” stats I should use?

The point is the 49 Leaf Jackie catching the 52 Mantle. The populations are similar with a few more Mantles graded, 1695 to 1354, but numbers at higher grades 6+, 7+ & 8+ very similar. So, if Jackie’s demand reaches Mantle levels, it will. Mantle is never going away, it doesn’t mean others can’t match his popularity and the dramatic rise in Jackie’s popularity make that a real possibility.

[MattyC]

Hi Tomi,

I did just what you proposed. Spent 34k on a dead centered 52T. It has more than doubled since that day.

An SGC 4 dead centered on eBay just closed at 58k before any sales tax, as a latest reference.

Can't go wrong with any great, "blue chip" iconic player you love, and most of them have "that" key card which other collectors/investors in that player will want.

For my money, I love baseball and so I collect lots of the greats. But all the guys I know in their 30s today grew up like I did (I'm 43) revering that 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle image.

And we will be buying for several decades to come.

Edit to add: the 49 Bowman Jackie is also a very cool early Jackie card and for many one of his "must haves." Might be able to get a nice PSA 1 Mick and a nice 49 Bowman Jackie!

Warmest Regards,

Matt

[Seven]

Originally Posted by rats60

Tomi said to go look at baseball reference and see all the times Mantle led the league. Black ink is the measure of leading the league, so it is a valid point. I don’t know what other stats you want to bring up, but WAR Williams 121.9 Mantle 110.2 even though Mantle played 109 games more. OPS + Williams 191 Mantle 172 despite Williams spending 5 prime years in the military. Any other “modern” stats I should use?

The point is the 49 Leaf Jackie catching the 52 Mantle. The populations are similar with a few more Mantles graded, 1695 to 1354, but numbers at higher grades 6+, 7+ & 8+ very similar. So, if Jackie’s demand reaches Mantle levels, it will. Mantle is never going away, it doesn’t mean others can’t match his popularity and the dramatic rise in Jackie’s popularity make that a real possibility.

I'm not disagreeing on either point really. From the few books I've read and articles I've seen on advanced metrics, wRC+ for offensive production is very good. Calculates for a neutral park environment. Williams still has the edge over Mantle, but Williams has the edge over everyone Post War. I was saying black ink has a habit of underrating players at times because, you could have a fantastic all around player that might not lead the league in every offensive category.

Regardless concerning your second point, the next decade or so is where I think we see how this argument plays out. Will be interesting to see.

[investinrookies]

Originally Posted by rats60

The point is the 49 Leaf Jackie catching the 52 Mantle. The populations are similar with a few more Mantles graded, 1695 to 1354, but numbers at higher grades 6+, 7+ & 8+ very similar. So, if Jackie’s demand reaches Mantle levels, it will. Mantle is never going away, it doesn’t mean others can’t match his popularity and the dramatic rise in Jackie’s popularity make that a real possibility.

This and thanks for clarifying.

[bswhiten]

My prediction - 52T Mick will sell for more for at least the next 50 years.

[mrmopar]

Personally, I hope this is the case. I have never cared for Mantle all that much.
I have a few of his cards (56T was a must have) and always felt he was overpriced even when I was a kid. Mays, Aaron, Clemente, all seemingly better players overall, yet they have sat 2nd fiddle to the mighty Mick. I guess loving the Dodgers and hating the Yankees will do that to your mindset though. Oh, and I have a Leaf Robinson and no 52 T Mantle.

Originally Posted by rats60

It has tripled in value over the last year and is now the most valuable normal print run rookie card, passing the 51B Mantle. Only the 52T Mantle is more popular and expensive among cards with a normal print run. Mantle's popularity is based on being the star of 50s Yankees when card collecting became popular. Those kids grew up and drove the price of that card with their disposal income. As that generation dies off, it is up to further generations to drive demand, but they have no personal connection to that card.

Robinson's legacy is more lasting as the player who broke the color barrier. He has appeal that goes beyond sports and kids who collected cards. I wonder how much the current BLM and social justice movement has in the current run up in price and these things are not going away. There is also the potential for generations of minorities who have been depressed economically to see more disposal income because of these movements. It has been joked that card shows are a bunch of overweight old white men. What happens if they start to look more like America?

[cardsagain74]

I have never gotten the popularity of the '48 Leaf set. It looks like children made the drawings and designed the cards, with the Robinson being especially awful (what is going on with the darker shade of his neck and lots of his face)?

Even in black and white, the Bowman '48s are so superior. Especially since Berra and Musial are so underappreciated.

[Neal]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I tend to agree with this.

Mantle just doesn’t have any claim to importance other than having been the most popular player for a few years when a lot of baby boomers were kids and collected cards.

He isn’t Robinson who broke the color barrier.

He isn’t Ruth who revolutionized the game.

He isn’t seriously mentioned when arguments about the best player ever come up. Its hard to even make the case that he was the best player in his own time.

He didn’t set any major records.

It really does seem like his relative popularity in the hobby has nowhere to go but down once all the people who loved him when they were kids pass on and future generations ask themselves why this guy is so key.

I disagree completely. At the very least, his popularity remains the same. If Mantle becomes less popular in the hobby, the others follow.

Answering the OP .... I'd buy the best 52 Topps Mantle I could find. A close second would be a three pack of Jackie, 54 Aaron, and the Babe.

[investinrookies]

Nice 52T Mantles continue to set higher prices, an SGC 6 just sold for nearly $112k at hunt today. Centering and registration were good, the nicer examples are setting a new tier of pricing well beyond the current VCP averages and rightfully so for the card that defines the hobby.