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  #1  
Old 02-24-2017, 10:24 PM
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Default Aaron Judge

Do you guys think Aaron Judge is a good Investment or is he going to be Adam Dunn 2.0?
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  #2  
Old 02-27-2017, 10:04 AM
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Dunn 2.0 would be a great player! Being in NY will only help and I hope he can cut down on the strikeouts but I can't remember a guy his size ever having great success in MLB. If he shortens his swing and can learn to take walks he will be a stud.
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  #3  
Old 02-27-2017, 02:12 PM
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Michael Conforto has a better shot at the moment (Mets).
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  #4  
Old 02-27-2017, 03:35 PM
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Maybe he will surprise me, but I don't rate him highly at all. As a Yankee fan I'd be ecstatic if he projects out to a Richie Sexson type, but I think that's pushing the boundries of expectations, and that certainly doesn't map out as a player to "invest" in.
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  #5  
Old 02-27-2017, 03:41 PM
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I tend to agree with you. I just don't think he'll develop the ability to walk which really puts pressure on him to hit 30 plus homers a year. Even if he is able to do that we all saw Chris Carter nearly go to Japan due to lack of interest.
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  #6  
Old 02-27-2017, 05:57 PM
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It's not like Judge has put up mind-blowing stats in the minor leagues. Not sure how pretty good minor league hitter maps out to Superstar major league potential. It's not like he's just out of High School either. He's pushing 25 already.

He's about 8 months younger then Mike Trout.
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  #7  
Old 02-28-2017, 07:43 AM
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Yeah I mean max potential would be a Giancarlo Stanton type but Stanton hit 39 homers as an 18 year old. Judge never did anything like that while being much older and having the benefit of college ball.
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  #8  
Old 02-28-2017, 01:36 PM
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yeah I agree with most here and would not go heavy on Judge but Sanchez on the other hand? maybe ....maybe..
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  #9  
Old 02-28-2017, 05:29 PM
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Rob Deer the second. Big guy, big long swing, lots of K's. A sucker for low outside sliders that he can't tell are not fastballs. Brings to mind Dusty Springfield's hit in the '60's--"Wishing and Hoping."

Good luck on that plunge,

Larry
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  #10  
Old 02-28-2017, 05:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigfanNY View Post
yeah I agree with most here and would not go heavy on Judge but Sanchez on the other hand? maybe ....maybe..
The problem with Sanchez is that his track record--minor league stats, with a fairly large sample size--don't reflect anything like that kind of production. Either a short term fluke (a la Ron Swoboda--10 HR's in his first 118 AB while batting .271 during that period in '65), or he had some artificial additive assistance. Sanchez had some decent to good HR stats in the minors over a pretty fair number of years, but nothing remotely resembling a homer per every 10 AB.

Regards,

Larry

Last edited by ls7plus; 02-28-2017 at 05:35 PM.
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  #11  
Old 03-01-2017, 07:24 AM
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I think that's a pretty big reach. Sanchez hit a total of 30 homers last year. He hit 25 homers total the year before accounting for his various minor league stops. I don't see anything out of the ordinary with his production. He of course won't hit home runs at that pace over a full year, but there's no reason not to believe he is a 30 homer guy.
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  #12  
Old 03-01-2017, 08:06 AM
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Sanchez is solid, and he's young with room to grow. Barring injuries he should have a good career.

Catching is a tough position. I'd be happy with Jorge Posada type production out of him at the plate, while being superior to Posada defensively.

Whether that's "investment" level for a modern player is another thing. There's always short term hype..........long term on modern cards, I think the pool of players is really small you'd want to bother with. There will be a bunch of borderline HOF'er guys most people won't care about 15 years from now.......and projecting ANY young player not named Mike Trout out to HOF status is a big reach.......borderline or not.

Baseball is littered with guys who put up big stats the first 5-10 years of their career or so, only to fizzle out too early for collectors to pay too much attention to them years down the line.
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  #13  
Old 03-01-2017, 08:35 AM
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Very true. Just look at David Wright. His career parallels Mattingly almost exactly. Nomar and Joe Mauer are other names that come to mind. On the pitching side I'm sure everyone assumed Johan and Lincecum were destined for all time great statuses too.

Last edited by packs; 03-01-2017 at 08:35 AM.
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  #14  
Old 03-02-2017, 06:51 PM
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Meanwhile (as crickets can be heard chirping over a vast and lonely open space), I invested in Joey Gallo.
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  #15  
Old 03-02-2017, 10:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clydepepper View Post
Meanwhile (as crickets can be heard chirping over a vast and lonely open space), I invested in Joey Gallo.
As I think all these players are good and way to early to
Make an investment but that being said that puts the whole excitement in the collecting a young player. It's a huge swing if you invest in the right player who's cards are relatively cheap but it can easily go the other way lol. If I had to choose right now besides the obvious would be correa. I think the way he is on the field defensively, size, speed and a big bat all outshinesthe players mentioned in this thread. He would be my pick for future HOF.
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  #16  
Old 03-05-2017, 04:35 PM
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Gary Sanchez put on a show today. Do not run on that man.
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  #17  
Old 05-04-2017, 05:10 PM
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I've changed my opinion on Aaron Judge. Watched him quite a bit last year, and he had holes on inside corner fastballs and sliders down and away, chasing the latter out of the zone and down into the dirt. After seeing him several times this year, it appears that he has moved back off the plate, taking advantage of his long arms, so that if a pitch appears inside, it almost certainly is, and he takes it instead of getting jammed or swinging and missing. Now, anything on the inside corner appears to him to be middle/in, or even middle/middle.

He's also far enough off the plate that he can't reach the slider in the lower, outside corner that he used to see as a fastball, and chase it into the dirt. For the most part (one exception last night), he knows he can't even reach it and lays off. If the pitcher hits that low outside corner now with a fastball, you simply tip your cap to him, as doing that is not so easy, and persisting in that attempt, unless the pitcher has really good command, is a very good way to get behind in the count. It's also a very tough pitch to do anything with in any event, unless you are Miguel Cabrera.

Last night, against Toronto, he hit a 450 foot homer over the centerfield fence, and didn't even have to swing that hard to do so. He is also a good fielder with a strong arm. I don't know that he will continue to hit .320 or .330 with 35-40 (or even more?) homeruns, but it does look like he is going to be very good, at this still very early point in his career. Also saw the interview with Eduardo Perez and this seems to be a very smart young man, understanding quite well the hitter-pitcher battle that is at the heart of the game, how they are trying to get him out, and willing and able to adjust.

I don't invest in such young phenoms until they have proved their worth and are in their mid to late 30's downslide, when demand has usually diminished, but he is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Best of luck in your collecting,


Larry

Last edited by ls7plus; 05-04-2017 at 05:14 PM.
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  #18  
Old 05-04-2017, 07:40 PM
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I think Judge has made great strides and adjustments, in terms of his approach at the plate. That is what you want to see in a young player. He's laying off the low outside pitch that got him so much last year. His power to all fields is electrifying. His attitude is affable and humble. He also has an intangible star quality. If he hits 40+ HRs and keeps the average and K's respectable, the pinstripes and the accompanying media stage will combine to make him quite popular.
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  #19  
Old 05-05-2017, 09:18 AM
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I have been completely surprised by Judge's season thus far. He looks like a totally different hitter. The same power is there but he's able to make more of it with his ability to limit his poor swings and stay off the garbage. I did not expect him to be able to do that at all. Don't know if it'll hold up but he's really opened my eyes at least.
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  #20  
Old 05-05-2017, 09:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardspun8 View Post
Do you guys think Aaron Judge is a good Investment or is he going to be Adam Dunn 2.0?
Last year it was Trevor story who got off to a blazing start his stuff was lazor hot
Now you cannot give it away. Give me a dead hall of Famer any day and twice on sundays . you want to gamble Kentucky Derby tomorrow at least it will be over in 2 minutes, verses waiting for a pipe dream
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  #21  
Old 05-05-2017, 12:44 PM
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I certainly under-estimated Judge. I understand he was drafted more as an athlete and on his potential rather then his actual skills at the time, as he came to baseball a little late.

Looks like things finally started to click for him. He always had the pop, but just had problems with the contact.

Still, I imagine it's a short term thing with him. He still got off to a late start, and would have to completely dominate for a long time to pay off if you plan on holding on to his cards. Short term, I guess it will just be a timing thing, much like penny stocks.

Also, don't forget. Big guys like him get hurt. He seems athletic now, but it's only a matter of time before back and knee issues kick in and he gets relegated to DH or 1st Base duty.

I'd be happy if he could be our Jay Buhner for the next 5 years or so. Luckily the Yankees didn't trade him for Ken Phelps before he finally blossomed.
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  #22  
Old 05-05-2017, 01:08 PM
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His cards have really shot up. I looked yesterday and was shocked to see his 2013 Bowman sells for like $400 raw now. I remember considering buying one when it was $40.
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  #23  
Old 05-10-2017, 01:55 PM
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Love watching this kid player play. Night and day from the player last season. Slumping a bit from the hot start, but I don't feel that will last long. He is helping in the field and showed off the arm throwing out Billy Hamilton at second the other night. Future is bright for him.

Mike
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  #24  
Old 05-11-2017, 04:08 PM
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Saw a couple of his games in the last few days. They are starting to get him out consistently with pitches breaking down and in (circle changes from righties; sliders from lefties), with a high fastball or two mixed in. Will have to see if he adjusts. I still wouldn't buy him in any event until he has proven his worth over a large major league sample size, is in his 30's down-slide phase, and the speculative and transient demand has migrated to the newest, latest and greatest hot item!

Best of luck and joy in your collecting,

Larry

Last edited by ls7plus; 05-16-2017 at 04:34 PM.
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  #25  
Old 05-16-2017, 01:47 PM
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Well to the OP I hope you did not listen to us and purchased in bulk 2013 autographed Judge cards back when you posted this. I could not pull the trigger and only have one Rookie Judge auto (Cost $27) and another Woulda Coulda Shoulda story ... GOOD CALL ..
J
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  #26  
Old 05-16-2017, 04:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by packs View Post
His cards have really shot up. I looked yesterday and was shocked to see his 2013 Bowman sells for like $400 raw now. I remember considering buying one when it was $40.
Ah, the nature of the new card market for up and coming phenoms! Initial demand is primarily speculative and transient, with card dealers bursting at the seams to take advantage of that "must have" urge within us. Better to wait until they are in their mid to late 30's downslide and this type of demand will have moved on to the latest and greatest. Their cards will still be out there, and likely much cheaper (see the Topps 1990 No-Name on Front Frank Thomas rookie for comparison purposes. When first discovered and subsequently popularized in the early '90's, Beckett had it for $1600 in near mint. By 2009, a NrMt to Mt example could be had for less than $600. Just a few months ago, however, one in PSA 3 went for over $2K on ebay. Moral of the story? Buy when demand is lowest, but before the player makes the HOF).

Good luck in your collecting,

Larry
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  #27  
Old 05-16-2017, 04:33 PM
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Saw Judge hit a 457 footer last weekend versus the Astros to dead center. Mantle type power (almost) with Wheaties box, all-American good looks. Hope he makes good, as it would be great for the game!

Best wishes,

Larry
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  #28  
Old 05-17-2017, 07:59 AM
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He's got a really good story too. I hadn't realized he was adopted. I hope he partners with some foundations to help out other kids in his situation. We need more Curtis Grandersons and Adam Joneses in the game.
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  #29  
Old 05-17-2017, 08:14 AM
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If you guys haven't seen it, Judge made an appearance on Jimmy Fallon the other day where he put on a pair of glasses and spoke with Yankee fan who did not recognize him. Pretty funny.

Mike
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  #30  
Old 05-17-2017, 03:20 PM
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He's got a really good story too. I hadn't realized he was adopted. I hope he partners with some foundations to help out other kids in his situation. We need more Curtis Grandersons and Adam Joneses in the game.
Didn't know that! He was very down to earth, humble and unassuming in his recent interview with Eduardo Perez. A definite credit to the game!

Happy Collecting,

Larry
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  #31  
Old 05-22-2017, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by yankeesjetsfan View Post
If you guys haven't seen it, Judge made an appearance on Jimmy Fallon the other day where he put on a pair of glasses and spoke with Yankee fan who did not recognize him. Pretty funny.

Mike
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXhSZjMYIk
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  #32  
Old 06-12-2017, 03:56 PM
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Looks like Mantle in his prime from the right side after this weekend--3 HR's, including a 495-footer Sunday (yes, Mantle did hit the ball that hard and far)! Hope he keeps it up, as he is really a high quality guy.

Regards, Larry
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  #33  
Old 06-12-2017, 05:56 PM
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Unbelievable what this kid is doing. I would have traded him for a serviceable starter 6 months ago. Hitting for a high average and OBP to while playing solid defense. Glad I was wrong.

It's like he just learned to hit recently. In hindsight it makes sense as baseball was never really his first sport until he got drafted.

Could Judge, Severino, Sanchez be the next Petitte, Jeter, Posada? Aaron Hicks a late blooming Bernie Williams?
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  #34  
Old 06-12-2017, 11:11 PM
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I am loving watching this kid play ball. His mental approach, oppo power, personality, star power. My kids love him, too. Been having as much of a blast collecting his cards lately. He has quite the bright future, on the Yankee stage.
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  #35  
Old 06-13-2017, 07:55 AM
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I wonder if it kills Cano to see Judge rise as high as he has. There's no doubt being a Yankee adds to his star while Cano, probably the best second baseman of his generation, languishes in Seattle.
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  #36  
Old 06-13-2017, 10:42 AM
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I wonder if it kills Cano to see Judge rise as high as he has. There's no doubt being a Yankee adds to his star while Cano, probably the best second baseman of his generation, languishes in Seattle.

I doubt Judge bothers him, but the fact that Castro and Gregorius are doing so well from the middle infield positions might bother him a bit.

Not just the young guys already up, but the Yankees have made some incredible trades the past several years, picking up Gregorius, Castro, Aaron Hicks and Tyler Clippard for what amounts to a bag of rocks.

Adam Warren and Gleyber Torres for loaning out Aroldis Chapman for a few months.

A part of me wishes they had kept Andrew Miller, though they got some nice future talent in return.
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  #37  
Old 06-13-2017, 11:06 AM
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I just mean that Cano would be the face of the Yankees right now if he were still with the Yankees. I wonder if it bothers him that Judge is Mr. Yankee while he's not really anyone to the baseball world right now. He was the heir apparent after Jeter.
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  #38  
Old 06-13-2017, 11:20 AM
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I just mean that Cano would be the face of the Yankees right now if he were still with the Yankees. I wonder if it bothers him that Judge is Mr. Yankee while he's not really anyone to the baseball world right now. He was the heir apparent after Jeter.

Yeah, hard to turn down the security of a 10 year contract I imagine. As much as I would have liked the Yankees used their money to keep Cano instead of signing Ellsbury, I'm glad they didn't try to match the Mariners ridiculous offer.

In less then a few years they will probably be happy to be able to unload his contract for a Top 500 Single A prospect.
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  #39  
Old 06-13-2017, 01:16 PM
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I don't miss Cano...pretty sure he didn't do it the right way if you know what I mean. Judge seems to be the right guy at the right time...and there doesn't seem to be any doubt that the guy is as natural as they come.


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  #40  
Old 06-13-2017, 01:38 PM
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What does that mean? Cano has the sweetest swing since Griffey if you ask me. You're saying he's cheating? Why?
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  #41  
Old 06-13-2017, 01:48 PM
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What does that mean? Cano has the sweetest swing since Griffey if you ask me. You're saying he's cheating? Why?


It means that I have my suspicions he cheated. And I don't miss him. Happy with Didi and Starling...and will be happy with Torres or Mateo. Love what the Yankees have done to make over this team...and they did it quickly. And they seem to have done it right.


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  #42  
Old 06-13-2017, 01:50 PM
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I agree with the rest of your sentiment but I really have a hard time understanding why you think he cheated. I'm sorry he's gone. Cano could have been on the wall of retired numbers with a plaque in the outfield and I would have been happy to see it.

BUT, I am still happy with the crop of infielders they have in the minors and the emergence of Judge. It's great that the Yankees have that guy again.
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  #43  
Old 06-13-2017, 02:01 PM
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I agree with the rest of your sentiment but I really have a hard time understanding why you think he cheated. I'm sorry he's gone. Cano could have been on the wall of retired numbers with a plaque in the outfield and I would have been happy to see it.



BUT, I am still happy with the crop of infielders they have in the minors and the emergence of Judge. It's great that the Yankees have that guy again.


There have been hints of steroid use dating back to 2012. I truly believe the Yankees were happy to see the Mariners offer ridiculous money, allowing them to "let him walk away." I'm not saying he wasn't/isn't a fantastic player...I just believe that there is an awful lot of smoke that he cheated. This was really one of the first times that the Yankees showed restraint and I think that was in no small part due to their concerns for why he was playing as well as he was...


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  #44  
Old 06-13-2017, 02:09 PM
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That seems way off base to me. The Yankees didn't let him walk away. They got priced out when they gave a huge contract to Ellsbury instead. I think you're revising history a little bit. They wanted to sign Cano too, just not for the years or the dollars. It's my opinion Cano got miffed when they gave the years and dollars to Ellsbury but not him. At the time the Yankees were desperate to unseat Boston and signing away their premier player at the time made sense. But I don't think for a second they didn't want to sign Cano.

Also, of the two of them, only Cano is living up to the money. 2 time all star and 2 top 10 MVP finishes. Can't name anything Ellsbury has done.

Last edited by packs; 06-13-2017 at 02:11 PM.
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Old 06-13-2017, 02:18 PM
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You're presupposing that I don't think he's a good player...he is a great player. I just believe that there was concern that he was tainted. And so it was easier to go after Ellsbury, hurt the Sox, and distance themselves from Cano. To your point, the Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


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Old 06-13-2017, 02:21 PM
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Jeez, if anybody was cheating it was Jacob Ellsbury for that one outlier year he used to get his big contract.

Take that one year out of his career and he's essentially an injury prone Brett Gardner, at twice the cost of Gardner.
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Old 06-13-2017, 02:26 PM
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Like I said, Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


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Old 06-13-2017, 02:36 PM
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Quote:
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That seems way off base to me. The Yankees didn't let him walk away. They got priced out when they gave a huge contract to Ellsbury instead. I think you're revising history a little bit. They wanted to sign Cano too, just not for the years or the dollars. It's my opinion Cano got miffed when they gave the years and dollars to Ellsbury but not him. At the time the Yankees were desperate to unseat Boston and signing away their premier player at the time made sense. But I don't think for a second they didn't want to sign Cano.

Also, of the two of them, only Cano is living up to the money. 2 time all star and 2 top 10 MVP finishes. Can't name anything Ellsbury has done.
In 2013 Ellsbury hit 9 HR with 53 RBI and a .298 BA. He had a nice year, but he was not their premier player. Ortiz and Pedroia were.
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Old 06-13-2017, 05:32 PM
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There have been hints of steroid use dating back to 2012. I truly believe the Yankees were happy to see the Mariners offer ridiculous money, allowing them to "let him walk away." I'm not saying he wasn't/isn't a fantastic player...I just believe that there is an awful lot of smoke that he cheated. This was really one of the first times that the Yankees showed restraint and I think that was in no small part due to their concerns for why he was playing as well as he was...


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If you read the book on A-Roid that came out a year or so ago, there is a reference to a text from Yankee management to A-Roid that Cano needs some 'roids. That, coupled with his initial fall-off in production upon reaching Seattle (which he attributed to stomach problems, if I recall correctly--yeah, right!), is what triggered the hints. I simply believe that that is one genie you never, ever get entirely back in the bottle. At least with the grueling 162-game schedule, + spring training + playoffs. Lenny Dystra, stated in his book that he found that his body could not stand up to the strain, simply picked a physician out of the phone book (sure he did!) and asked for something to help him cope. The doctor prescribed anabolic steroids, and Dystra is very straightforward about it. I really don't know if the situation I still believe persists (does anyone really think Starling Marte was the only one using the steroid he tested positive for?) is good or bad--it is just the way it is.

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Old 06-13-2017, 05:41 PM
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Like I said, Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


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What in the world do they do with Ellsbury when he comes back? Michael, the main NY broadcaster, has taken to referring to Hicks as "Hank Aaron" Hicks. Sure Ellsbury is better in the field, except perhaps for his arm, but I frankly don't see where Ells is going to play--certainly Gardner and Judge aren't going anywhere. Ellsbury is worth about a third of his salary, if that, and no one would take him in a trade.

Best wishes,

Larry

Last edited by ls7plus; 06-13-2017 at 05:41 PM.
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