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#1
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: peter chao
This is another friendly thread on the grading of vintage cards. There are three parts to this question: 1) What percentage of vintage cards are graded by any co.? 2) Of the graded T-206 cards what is the percentage of high grade cards that have been graded? and 3) What percentage of high grade (PSA 8 or higher) T-206 cards are in non-PSA/SGC holders? |
#2
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: MVSNYC
i'll repost some earlier info that i posted in a thread a few weeks ago comparing the number of high grade T206's vs. T205's...you can do the math yourself and figure out percentages... |
#3
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: peter chao
I don't think you can imply that T-205s are a lot more rare. Remember, noone is going to get '87 Topps cards graded. I'm just saying that T-206s have always been more valuable, that may be the reason that more of them have been graded. But it does appear that there are way fewer high-grade T205s. |
#4
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Matt E.
Peter has become Jack Barry from the movie Quiz Show. |
#5
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: MVSNYC
"Of the graded T-206 cards what is the percentage of high grade cards that have been graded?" |
#6
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: leon
No one except those 31,652 graded. Not one more.... |
#7
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: peter chao
It's the legal eagle part of me. Jeff L. and many others have the same approach. We just want to separate the wheat from the chaff. Basically, we want to get to the true facts, so we critically approach the facts. |
#8
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Rob Dewolf
It's the legal eagle part of me. |
#9
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: T206Collector
Uh, T205's were only produced in 1911. T206's were produced for three years from 1909-11. Based on those cold hard facts alone, you would expect three T206 cards to every 1 T205 card -- and that was by the end of 1911 alone. |
#10
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: E, Daniel
I think I'd rather call Corbin Bernsen first. |
#11
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Joe D.
i do notice striking similarities between your posts and jeff L's posts. |
#12
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Richard Masson
I'm just sitting here coming to grasp with the concept of there being 30,000 graded 1987 Topps cards somewhere. Wow. |
#13
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Joann
I think I'm getting lost in the dizzying world of high grade cards here. |
#14
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
Peter, when your ancestors came to our country did they change the spelling of their surname from Chaff to Chao? |
#15
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: dennis
peter and to others interested in ???'s with no real answers on graded cards here is a link to the psa set registry. |
#16
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Gilbert Maines
Link yields: |
#17
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: dennis
thanks gil i think it's OK for now.try link |
#18
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Gilbert Maines
Works real fine. Thanks, I don't go there often. |
#19
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Steve Murray
Where is that number coming from? There are 5 1987 Registry sets none of which are more than 23% complete. |
#20
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: john/z28jd
Its probably from Bonds and McGwire cards as when they were both putting up big numbers tons of their cards were getting graded and the 87 topps set is the first non-updated/traded issue for them |
#21
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
The 31,652 number comes from the PSA population report for 1987 Topps. There are a total of 10,748 PSA 9's and 3,081 PSA 10's graded. More than half of the graded cards consist of Barry Bonds rookies (10,499), and Mark McGwire rookies (8,511). A few other star and rookie cards constitute the bulk of the remaining graded cards, each with populations in the hundreds. Many of the common cards have a graded population of only 1, but every card appears to have been graded at least once. |
#22
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Steve Murray
That makes sense. |
#23
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: peter chao
Grading '87 Topps doesn't make a lot of sense to me. What are you going to do? Spend $10 to grade a .05 Topps common? Suppose it grades a PSA 8, then it will be worth .10 then you would only lose $9.90, however, I suppose the upside is you get closer to completing your registry set. For most of us it would not be an upside. |
#24
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: MVSNYC
peter- you actually started a good thread, let's stay on topic here... |
#25
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
Technically 1987 Topps is off topic even for the 'post-war' forum. But it's an interesting question about the cost-effectiveness of grading. I have paid grading fees that were many times the value of the cards in question, mostly for my son's collection (which spans the range from T206 to 2007 Topps), just because we wanted to have the cards authenticated and protected. Sometimes these cards were listed on the PSA set registry and sometimes not. |
#26
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Fred C
Eric, did you say that there were 87T cards with pops of "1"? For those "pop report" fans wouldn't that make those cards some of the "rarest" out there? Could you imagien possessing a card with a pop report of "1"? |
#27
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: JK
Peter, |
#28
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
Ha ha very funny Fred. Obviously for 1987 Topps, 'Pop 1' doesn't equate to 'rarity', it means that only one has been submitted so far. There are of course millions of ungraded ones out there, and there always will be. And as JK points out, new submissions will be motivated by the possibility of getting a '10', which does carry significant value (despite the fact that PSA has bestowed this rating on over 3000 1987 Topps cards to date, including over 700 Bonds rookie cards). |
#29
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Richard Masson
I'm going to get my pallet of vending cases slabbed...but first I have to lay down the corner on the wooden base. |
#30
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Jim Dale
While its possible (as the post with the link to the ebay auction dictates) that a common '87 card in PSA 10 can get $40 its not that normal. I happen to really like collecting Ozzie Smith PSA 10 cards and do buy some of the mid 80's early 90's cards that are graded PSA and have gotten many of them below $9 including shipping charges - several have populations of 10 or less in that grade. |
#31
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
PSA has graded a total of 81,321 T206 cards and 17,308 T205 cards (4.7 to 1 ratio) |
#32
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: peter chao
Initially, I posed several questions, and a lot of useful information has been posted. One question I'm still curious about is whether a lot of T206 cards were graded by companies other than PSA and SGC. The data on BGS grading was useful. |
#33
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
Peter -- oh, ok. I would guess that most BGS-slabbed cards will be sold to people who collect BGS-slabbed cards. I'm sure there will be attempts to cross them over to PSA or SGC as well, to get a better return at time of sale, but I have no idea how many. |
#34
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: peter chao
Eric, |
#35
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
Actually the way to really estimate the number of ungraded cards of a particular type that exist (borrowing some reasoning from software reliability engineering, which is how I used to make my living), is to track changes in the rate at which new cards are being graded over time (i.e. the first derivative of the cumulative curve). If the rate drops steeply over time, that means that the underlying population of ungraded cards is relatively small, and that those remaining are getting graded fairly rapidly. Similarly, if the rate is relatively constant over time, or declines very slowly, we can deduce that the underlying population of ungraded cards is relatively large. (Of course I am only talking here about the population of cards that eventually will be graded; there is undoubtedly some size population of cards that never will be.) I don't suppose I will be undertaking this analysis myself however, at least not in this lifetime. |
#36
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: peter chao
Eric, |
#37
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: barrysloate
I read this thread and got a splitting headache. What are we talking about? |
#38
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
I was talking about trying to figure out how many ungraded cards of a particular type exist, and in particular how many new graded examples of high grade cards in sets such as T206 and 1933 Goudey we can expect to be added to the populations in the future. |
#39
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: pas
I have no clue. Too much chaff. |
#40
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
The issue is, if you pay thousands of dollars for say, a high grade T206 common card because you believe it to be 'low pop', you would be upset if a year later you discover that the population of the card has doubled. People make buying decisions based on population figures ("for common cards, it's all about the pop" I heard), so you want to know if those figures are stable. That's the question I was trying to address. If that's not important to you, screw it. |
#41
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: peter chao
Eric, |
#42
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
Peter C., what I have done is compare population reports for sets I am interested in at different points in time, say once every six months. That gives me an idea how much the populations of cards in different grades are changing over time. I have found this useful when looking at high grade low pop 1933 Goudey cards, for example. For T206 cards (HOFers only), I ignore population reports entirely, since I collect them in middle grades and they are all plentiful enough in those grades that it doesn't matter (except Plank and Wagner of course). |
#43
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Larry
However, there were many Board members that thought that 75% of high grade T206s have already been graded. If that is the case, then the no. of high grade T206s cards being <graded by PSA should be dropping virtually every year. |
#44
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Martin Neal
I located an older Psa t205 population report dated January 9th, 2006. Hope this helps. |
#45
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% of Graded Vintage Cards
Posted By: Eric Brehm
Thanks Martin, I'd say that shows a significant increase in graded T205 cards in the last 21 months: a 24% increase for grades 6-9, and a 41% total increase for all grades. I find it a bit surprising that there have been that many new cards graded in that time period. It's hard to extrapolate from just a couple of data points, but I would think that the grading of T205's has a ways to go before it levels off. |
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