How Rare is Rare?

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

A recent poster stated:

"The BEST thing about our hobby is that being "rich" does not mean that someone can just walk in and obtain whatever cards he wants to own.

Bill Gates might WANT to own some of the rarest one-of-a-kind cards... but since they are NOT for sale... his MONEY doesn't mean jack squat".

Although I am sure that this is true, I frequently encounter cards which are described by what I percieve to be knowledgable individuals as "Rare".

My question is: if Bill Gates wanted to sink a million dollars into unspecified rare baseball cards (to compliment and diversify his portfolio, no doubt) how long do you think it would take for a reputable dealer to assemble that amount of rare cards?

Suppose he wanted to purchase $10 Mil. - how long would it take to assemble sufficient unspecified rare cards?

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Posted By: Scott

...that he needs a Herpolsheimer Ping Bodie.

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Yeah Scott, but he probably wants to buy rare cards in volume, in the hopes of a discount. How many identical truly rare cards do you have?

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Posted By: Scott Elkins

the last day of a Mastronet auction to acquire those cards! As for your discount - there are no discounts on the truly rare cards (at least from people who know what they have). There are only premiums above and beyond SCD.

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

If you can pick up $1-10 mil. of rare cards in one day, then in my estimation, rare cards are common.

If this is so, then the characteristics which make a rare card desireable goes beyond the actual population of the card, and by necessity becomes subjective.

Unless Im getting ahead of myself here - doesn't that subjectivity pose an uncontrollable element of risk?

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Posted By: warshawlaw

but no card I have is beyond a sufficient price. If some gazillionaire wanted to pay me an unholy sum for the rarest card I have, I'd take it even if I knew the odds of replacing it were close to insurmountable.

Anyone out there with seven figures and a burning desire for exhibit cards??

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Posted By: leon

Some cards are not for sale and can't be had....for any price (almost). Take a look at some of the websites linked on this board and you will see some. I think that's part of what makes collecting cool. For any amount of money another type card collector can't complete the ACC "t" set.....unless I feel like it later

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Posted By: Jay Miller

I think the point is that what makes a card rare is an extremely low population of existing specimens. This is in contrast to valuable where there is a considerable discrepancy between supply and demand. To assemble a $10 million portfolio of rare cards is certainly doable. What is probably not doable is assembling a $10 million portfolio of specific rare cards. In other words, in the universe of say $100 million in rare cards (don't argue with the number it is just for illustrative purposes) some percentage of the owners of those cards would be willing to sell those cards at a price. Similarily, some percentage would not sell their cards at any price. My guess is that someone could assemble $10 million of those rare cards without having to pay more than 2X value(not catalog).

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Posted By: Scott

...that in this hobby wealth can buy power. Fortunately I don't collect rare type cards, so I'm not at the mercy of some of you collectors who can do the "price is no object" thing - you guys can keep redistributing your discretionary income between yourselves.

If Lee won't sell me a beat-up t206 for $15, I just go to the next bowling alley employee.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

My guess is Bill Gates is thrifty, and wouldn't be interested in buying cards at 3x market value. Your better bet would be Paul Allen.

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Posted By: Judge Dred

I don't think that I'd turn down an insanely ridiculously high offer for a any card I had. Don't get me wrong, it doesn't mean that I don't care about my collection, it just means that I could probably use the money to purchase many other items to take the place of the rare item that was sold.

A rare item wouldn't become more rare because it was sold at such a high price but the list of people that would have the means to procure that item would probably be reduced which would make a legitimate buyer for the item more "rare" (not the card).


The $10M question - could someone spend that much on rare cards - Yes, it all depends upon the willingness of people to sell their cards. If there were a lot of hold outs (sellers that would only take top $$) then the $10M could be gone quickly, if the buyer was frugal then it may take a while to spend that amount.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

I notice that there are sometimes different and legitimate price levels with some rare non-card memorabilia. Sometimes there are 2 or 3 people willing to buy an item in a certain high price range as they have a specific desire for the item (Not talking the "It pictures my uncle" interest). Once these 2-3 have bought their item, the price drops as all the others may want it but not as avidly as the first three. So folks 1-3 buy an item at $500, and people 4-20 buy it under $150 .... In other words, there can be great and legitimate collector interest for an item, but the interest is held by 3 collectors not 300 ... The fact that a rich guy enters the market and pays richly for a T206 Ty Cobb may have no effect on the value of the T206 Cobb you hold in your hand.

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Posted By: Scott Elkins

doesn't happen every day! It happens around 4 times a year - Mastronet's Premium Auctions. And, yes, the cards (for the most part) are that rare! Sure there are several that are not rare in lower grades, but are in 8's or better and bring big bucks.

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Scott, I understood your statement about the "one day". Thank you for your observations and clarification.

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Leon: Thank you for your correction of my misstatement. Specifically:

"If this is so, then the characteristics which make a rare card desireable goes beyond the actual population of the card, and by necessity becomes subjective".

In the example which you offer:

"For any amount of money another type card collector can't complete the ACC "t" set.....unless I feel like it later"

Having a unique type t-card certainly is a logistical position in which the card is clearly of objective value; since the completion of a type set of tobacco cards is keyed on obtaining an example each type. That is, if I understood you correctly, there exists one or more tobacco sets represented by a single card.

I hadn't considered that (and similar) situations. Thank you. As you are well aware, I am an aspiring novice in this area of the hobby. And although I may share an interest in the considerations of this segment, I do not imagine that I will ever become a player in this field.

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Posted By: leon

I guess first of all I should apologize for coming off as "smug". I think I caught a little bit of drift from Runscott...but that's ok...I still love him (or "you" as you are readin this Scott, I hate when folks talk about us like we aren't reading what they write)..... and the love is in a manly sort of way . I am already taken, sorry Scott. There has been much board debate about "unique" cards and are they really part of a set or not, and thus included on want lists etc... I think Glen has some good observations on that subject. Of course I am referring to the ACC #'d T231 Fans Cigarette card of Baker that I have. And as Glen readily admits there is, or has definitely been, another one known from the set. There are exactly 2 that have ever been known from the set. Unless there was MS Photoshop or something around 20 years ago then then the Bigbee Xerox copy represents the 2nd copy of a T231 known. I am mainly going over this for new board members as it's been discussed many times before. I am not aware of any other ACC catalogued set that has as few total "known" cards in it.....Your analysis way of thinking is great. Before the '70's, and all I did then, and some I still do now- to my brain, I might have been as calculating as you are.... take care

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Posted By: Scott

The board dynamics here are fantastic. In "real" life, the odds of me striking up a friendship with you, or a lawyer, or a Canadian college student, are about zip. So all of this is good. We are bound together by a mutual interest and it's helping most of us by getting us to interract with and learn about people that otherwise are quite different from us...of course, this also includes a few total lunatics.

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Posted By: Matt Goebel

Sorry to interrupt the love-fest, but this thread has raised the following question in my mind. Say Bill Gates (or Paul Allen) decides he wanted to get into rare baseball cards and he wants to put together the following collection of 25 cards in EX-MT if possible within the next month:
N167 HOFer
G&B HOFer
Gypsy Queen large HOFer
Kalamazoo Bats individual HOFer
Four Base Hits Mike Kelly
Old Judge Anson in uniform
Just So Cy Young
Henry Reccius Wagner
E107 Wagner
E107 Mathewson
T206 Plank
T206 Wagner
T210 Old Mill Joe Jackson
E271 Darby Cobb
Boston Garter Joe Jackson
Boston Garter Cobb
Washington Times Cobb
Sporting News Ruth
Baltimore News Ruth
1917 White Sox team issue Joe Jackson
1923-24 Billiken Oscar Charleston
1932 US Caramel Fred Lindstrom
Zeenut DiMaggio w/coupon
1950-51 Toleteros Josh Gibson
1961 Topps Dice Game Mickey Mantle

My question is can he do it and what would it cost him?

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Posted By: Judge Dred

"Paul" or "Bill" would be lucky to find the Kelly 4BH and a lot of the other cards. It boils down to the bottom line and if "money is no object". Then it would be all relative to what people (that owned those cards) considered a reasonable offer. I would think that most people might sell an N167 HOF card in nice condition if someone were to pony up a quarter million or even a million dollars. Something else to consider in this hypothetical is that "Paul" or "Bill" probably wouldn't be doing the negotiating, they'd probably use one of the auction house gurus to locate the material because who else might know who owns most of this stuff.

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Posted By: Andy Baran

I think someone could come pretty close, but there are a couple of cards on the list that may not be available at any price. The Just So Tobacco Cy Young and Henry Reccius Wagner come to mind. The owners of these cards simply don't need the money, whatever the price. Also, not all of those cards even exist in EX-MT condition.

I will go on record and say that I have an N167 Ewing, E107 Wagner, and E107 Mathewson that would each immediately become available at $250,000 each if anyone was crazy enough to spend that kind of money.

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Posted By: Scott

Gates wouldn't be able to locate most of those cards, because he's not a vintage card collector.

A better question would be, what if YOU all of a sudden had Bill Gates' wealth - could you do it? and how much? Given what I know about you, and the fact that you have the knowledge to put together such a list, I would say "yes", you could locate the cards and settle on prices within a month.

Everything has a price.

If any of those cards have only one known owner, and that owner is extremely eccentric and/or even wealthier than your "Bill Gates self", the situation then becomes a touch different.

...and here's some virtual love

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Posted By: Matt Goebel

I guess Andy sort of hit on the crux of my question. If these cards were all available at $250,000 then it would take just over $6 million for Bill (or Paul or the hybrid of me and their money) to put together the collection. I know you were being facetious Andy, but the point is that your cards could be had at a certain price - what about $50,000 each or $100,000 each?. The Just So Young or Reccius Wagner are different because they are unique (as far as I know), but I would think they could be had at some price like $1 million which is still chump change for this buyer.

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Posted By: john/z28jd

I agree that theres cards that cant be had at any price,some people arent driven be the temptation of having more money.I dont have a great collection and definitely dont have alot of money but theres cards of mine that cant be bought UNLESS the person who buys them from me is willing to sell them back to me for less without the cards leaving my hands,then you can buy any card,or personal item i have

That decision tho might be more difficult for people who actually have one of a kind cards and are actually getting the offers

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Posted By: warshawlaw

Would it change things if the buyer granted an irrevocable option to the seller to repurchase the card at the time the buyer wanted to sell it or at his death? Would that make you willing to sell a "unique" card?

As far as what I'd do with the money, I'd keep it very quiet, would use several dealers to locate the cards, and would attend every show in sight for a year or two. After all, finding the cards is half the fun, isn't it?

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Posted By: Jay Miller

Two points: First, some of the cards on the list are scarce, not rare. The Sporting News Ruth card is definitely not rare and neither is the Wagner. Second, at the end of the day, even though we all love our collections, these are just little pieces of paper. After thinking about it some more my guess is that virtually every card on the list is available at a price, most alot less than we would delude ourselves into thinking it would take.

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Yes, finding the cards is half the fun; but looking for the cards is very little of it - for me.

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Posted By: Andy Baran

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Posted By: barrysloate

I agree completely with Jay. Everyone's collection is available at some price. Most or all is replaceable, and it is just stuff. If you offer enough money, I'll get you the Just So Cy Young. The number would have to be astronomical, to be sure, but if someone says his collection is not for sale and Bill Gates offers a billion dollars for it, everyone on this board would get on the first plane to hand deliver it to him. You could use the money to buy three mansions, ten cars, and a better baseball card collection than you started with. Stuff is stuff.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Just to clarify, before I get swamped with emails, the owner of the Cy Young has not offered it. I was speaking metaphorically. I'm just saying there is some price in the universe where all material things are for sale. Please don't ask me what he wants for it. Thank you.

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Posted By: leon

I think you were safe at about a billion. I would even sell Mr. Kelly for a tad bit less than that.....and I will bet my good friend Jay M. might even sell Mr. Anson for half that much.....

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Posted By: Jay Miller

Leon, not wanting to tip my hand but I'de sure have to give that some careful thought.

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Posted By: barrysloate

One of the things I've learned in my 22 years in the hobby is that things you think will never show up again do show up again. Even another Four Base Hits of Kelly could reside somewhere; and if not that, there is no shortage of great and rare things to buy. That's why when collectors tell me they would never sell their best pieces for any amount, I'm always skeptical. I've seen many untouchable collections come on the market. So when someone offers you far too much for something, my advise is to give it some serious thought. You can find something equally great and even have a little change left over. Just my three cents.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

It is all just stuff. Besides, half the fun is finding it.

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Posted By: david

i my conversations with tik about four bases hits he lead me to believe that the kelly is actually the least rare of the known cards

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Posted By: Jay Miller

There are two Kellys known. Nothing could be that much rarer. What is the sound of the cuckoo clock--tik, tik

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Posted By: davidcycleback

The reality is that unless Bill Gates or Paul Allen are very knowledgeable about cards (which they aren't, as far as I'm aware), they'd have no inkling whatsoever what Pre-War cards are the ones to buy. If some billionaire wanted to start collecting baseball memorabilia, he'd probably buy something like a Barry Bonds home run ball or a Mickey Mantle jersey. Or, in Paul's case, the Portland Trailbazers. Your Nadjas and Uzits and Pinkertons are likely safe from Bill Gate's big money, because he likely doesn't have the knowledge required to make quality choices. And I'm sure if Bill was already collecting T207s and Turkey Reds on eBay and at shows, we'd know it. Keith Olberman's ebay name is common knowledge.

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Posted By: Bill Cornell

For what it's worth, when Paul Allen decided to collect rock & roll memorabilia for the EMP museum in David's hometown, it took him no time to acquire one of the best collections in the world. Copeland did the same thing with baseball stuff in the late 80's. Barry's point about everything being for sale at some price is absolutely correct.

Bill

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Posted By: davidcycleback

As far as Gates goes, I hear his hobby is playing bridge with Warren Buffett. Doesn't sound like someone about to seach your 10 cent Topps commons box.

Though I've never been (though I might go now, after this thread), I've heard positive opinions on Allen's Rock 'N Roll museum, including that it is a great place to take kids. You can play your own music in studios. I've walked by (right next to the Space Needle), and it's the freakiest building you ever saw. It looks like a melted plastic toy.

I'm not looking to sell anything I collect (I'm not anticipating a phone call from Bill Gates asking if I take credit cards. I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.). But, considering Paul Allen builds museums in my hometown, I would definitely apply to be curator of the world's first Willie Mays/Gia Carangi Museum ... I noticed there's a vacant lot on a corner a few blocks from where I live. Perhaps that's where it's going.

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Posted By: Scott

...of game-used Walt Bussey memorabilia, you would be in deep trouble...and at my mercy. If someone could put that bug in Mr. Gates ear please.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

But odds are one of us will see the inside of an insurer's checkbook. What if your cards were "liquidated" by a peril (fire, earthquake, etc.) and you were insured and your insurer actually paid off at full market value? Would you start again? How would you do it? What would you focus on--would you rebuild your collection or try a new area of collecting? Could you overcome the pressure of your spouse to spend the money on meaningless crap like food, clothing, shelter, your kid's college fund or retirement accounts?

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Posted By: Josh K.

So, ah, just what is Olberman's ebay name?

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Posted By: Richard Masson

He paid up and accumulated many items in high grade (using the company pension fund?). Despite having started at an ebb point in the market in the mid-80s, he sold in the Sotheby's auction in 1991 and realized a loss. If he had held on to now, it would be a four-bagger.

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Posted By: Don J.

Don't be so sure that Paul doesn't collect high end vintage baseball material ... I thought Keith O's ebay name at one time was Merkle923.