Memorabilia vs Cards and trends...

[Goudey77]

Out of curiosity how have rare and unique sports memorabilia fared over the last 10 years vs the high demand vintage baseball cards?

Did they track about the same in terms of auction performance? Increase over time?

I'm trying to determine if the memorabilia market is "optimized" and riding on historical highs or if they are still undervalued.

Your opinions are appreciated.

[perezfan]

I think it is very undervalued, with respect to Cards. We have not seen the huge and continuous spikes that Cards have realized... nothing like the crazy exponential price increases the Aaron Rookie, Clemente Rookie or '52 Mantle have experienced over past years.

The irony is that so much of the memorabilia is rarer than the vast majority of these "rare" cards. Many are one of a kind pieces, or items that exist in numbers less than the fingers on one hand. I could list infinite examples of this, but will spare you the "novel".

That said, it still floors me that a mass-produced Hank Aaron rookie card can sell for 10 times the amount of one of his Game-used Bats. I cannot rationalize how a relatively common piece of cardboard (seen multiple times in every major Catalog Auction) is worth so much more than an actual piece of lumber he used to accomplish what he did.

I keep thinking it's just a matter of time before collectors catch on to this... but it still hasn't happened.

[Goudey77]

Mark, I think this type of increase in card prices is a relatively new trend that has really shown itself in the last 6 years.

I agree with your thoughts on memorabilia. But the question is has memorabilia ever been hotly desired and seen price spikes like today’s cards?
Is it looked at in the same way? Like your example of Aaron, the card is looked at like an “investment” piece that is obviously driving demand.

I can justify having rare memorabilia all day but there is an old saying that bothers me. Scarcity doesn’t necessarily mean higher prices.
I struggled with this every time I owned a 1 of kind piece.
My collector emotion doesn’t give unto this theory....

Quote:
Understanding the Scarcity Principle
In economics, market equilibrium is achieved when supply equals demand. However, the markets are not always in equilibrium due to mismatched levels of supply and demand in the economy. When supply of a good is greater than demand for that good, a surplus ensues, which drives down the price of the good. Disequilibrium also occurs when demand for a commodity is higher than the supply of that commodity, leading to scarcity and, thus, higher prices for that product

[bgar3]

Agree with ark, very undervalued, both actually and relatively.

[ooo-ribay]

I wonder if the card guys have wives who will only tolerate binders while we memorabilia guys wear the pants in our families?

[conor912]

It’s less the cards are going up than their slabs and commoditization. In my experience, the more easily someone knows they can sell something, the more they are willing to pay for it.

[jbsports33]

Prices have taken a hit on many items - 15-20 years ago there was a fair amount collecting both memorabilia and cards - now it seems most are looking for cards. I agree some really undervalued items out there and if you enjoy items other then cards - you may find some great items!

Jimmy

[Butch7999]

The question, as posed, seems to us too impossibly broad to answer. If it were asked whether card prices
were rising, falling, or stable, the answer might be different for 19th-century cards versus post-war vintage,
or T206s versus modern shiny gimmicks. Similarly, does "memorabilia" mean everything under the sun,
or only autographs, or only photographs, or game-worn uniforms, or bobbleheads, or stadium seats,
or trophies, or... or... or...
Each genre, each niche, seems to have its own set of collectors, and its own market fluctuations,
prices rising, falling, spiking, sinking, usually returning to some more typical level.
Or maybe we misunderstand the question.
Just sayin'.

[Shoeless Moe]

There definitely has not been a drop in memorabilia prices, most areas are either steady or have increased (photos, tickets, etc.).

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

There definitely has not been a drop in memorabilia prices, most areas are either steady or have increased (photos, tickets, etc.).

FWIW, I think that Paul is definitely correct here when it comes to tickets.
Difficult vintage milestone tickets continue to ratchet up in price.
Common tickets are holding their own or losing their pricing strength.
Supply & demand definitely seems to drive pricing.

I may be wrong here, but it seems to me that more collectors are collecting tickets and theme collecting is as popular as ever.

[Mark]

The only memorabilia that I follow closely is pre-war, pro-model bats. It seems to me that high end bats of the big pre-war players, Ruth, Jackson, Gehrig, Cobb, and Wagner, are commanding very strong prices---well into 6 figures. These are legendary players, and I suspect that people who don't collect bats as a hobby-obsession want to own these bats. I have heard people say that demand for bats of less well-known hall of famers is languishing, but the prices of some these bats has been rising. High grade bats of players like Same Rice have been exceeding estimates. In 2019, Goldin sold a PSA 9 Eddie Collins bat for $36K--surpassing the $28 K that Heritage got for a t206 Eddie Collins PSA 9. Even some non-hall of famers’ bats have done well. 3 years ago, there was a Heinie Zimmerman bat that sold for $3750 and a Wildfire Schulte model that went for $13K. That sounds like healthy demand! Still, a t206 PSA 10 of a common player might sell for $50K. Why don’t pre-war bats sell for more? As others have said, it is probably because there are very few pre-war bats to be had, and so there aren’t many of us trying to have them. It’s hard to build a hobby community when only a handful of people can build collections.

I am wondering about post-war, modern bat collecting. It was my impression that values have been going up, but not exponentially. Is the market for Arron and Mays bats flat? Or is it just that they haven’t been going through the roof in the manner of baseball cards?

I think that cards have an allure because nearly every boy collected them, they come in sets that can, in principle, be readily completed, and because it’s easy to get started collecting them because they are plentiful. Almost anyone can get a 1968 Topps Aaron. If you have some money, you can pursue better and better versions and rarer cards. But with bats, I would guess that there are only a few dozen Aaron or Mays bats to be had, and it’s not cheap or easy to begin collecting those bats.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Mark

I think that cards have an allure because nearly every boy collected them, they come in sets that can, in principle, be readily completed, and because it’s easy to get started collecting them because they are plentiful. Almost anyone can get a 1968 Topps Aaron. If you have some money, you can pursue better and better versions and rarer cards. But with bats, I would guess that there are only a few dozen Aaron or Mays bats to be had, and it’s not cheap or easy to begin collecting those bats.

Agreed.

The hobby is built around cards. Everything else is a niche. The hobby psychology is tied to cards. Has there ever been a "black swamp" find of bats, pennants, jerseys etc.? Who gets excited over a cache of game used bats found in the attic of this old house? Over the decades there have been plenty of finds of cards. Maybe it has to do with the picture on the front and stats on the back. Perhaps the collective is always on the hunt for the next big find. Cards were available to everyone, buy a pack and see what is unearthed. A collection of cards is far more portable, than bats, jerseys, pennants, fans (ok pin guys, pins are portable as well). Bats, jerseys, pennants and other memorabilia are cool as heck, but few collectors (Halper excluded) had the foresight to collect memorabilia by the truckload. The market for cards is just bigger than the other collectibles. For most, cards are the gateway drug to the insanity of collecting.


I always amazed at the non-card memorabilia on this site that collectors managed to save. Check out the pennant or man cave thread, there are some incredible items there.

[hcv123]

Some of these points have already been mentioned

1) Basic supply and demand and I would sadly have to argue that there are is a lot greater demand for the "hot" rookie cards of the games greats than let's say a game used bat form any of them - in part that begs the question why? Onto #2


2) The 3rd party grading companies (love them or hate them) and the ease of finding up to date pricing (think Ebay history, PSA database, VCP, etc) in addition to the fact that there are ongoing regular sales of most of these cards make it easy for less experienced collectors to enter this market. That I'm aware of there is no "one stop" source for a history of memorabilia sales? Bottom line information is alot easier to find for cards than for memorabilia creating a much easier entry into the market.


3) A lot of collectors I would argue are drawn in some way because they were exposed to baseball cards in some way as a kid so they come back looking to build on a piece of their childhood.

That's all I've got for now.

[Snapolit1]

Memorabilia is undervalued as compared to cards, and I see the prices as largely flat the last 2-3 years. Last night I was watching Heritage for the Gehrig Luckiest Man ticket stub that was on the block. I've seen a few of these the past few years and then all went around 30k, which is what last nights did. There are 7 or 8 of them graded. (Maybe another 7 or 8 ungraded?) From one of the most historic sporting events in American history. Yet some Jeter or Trout mass produced card will sell 4x that. Is very odd to me. Yet, there is nothing intrinsically cool about a ticket stub. In fact it's pretty damm boring. So I get that part of it. I don't collect bats, balls and gloves but to my mind there are literally thousands of them for sale every month. Some truly amazing pieces but many pretty pedestrian.

Fact that certain pieces of memorabilia are scarce or one of a kind likely ends up cutting against them at the end of day for creating a vibrant market.

[TaxMechanick]

I agree with Butch7999 on this one! It depends on what area of sports memorabilia.

On the memorabilia side, I collect mostly 19th century and turn-century say pre-1912 display memorabilia (baseball, boxing, other sports, and even Political Campaign and Americana), more focused on what would be referred to as "smalls" (or relatively smalls).

I have picked up numerous pieces of extreme or otherwise rare and interesting items in recent years at relatively flat prices or even 50% of or less, to say 75% or so of what items were selling for say 10-12+ years ago. The reason, there are just less collectors that care about this kind of material. As others have said, or perhaps inferred, more folks are focused on cards, and it is more about the commodity and perceived investment, rather then a love of the history of the game or sport or history.

Also as many have said over and over again, you should buy and enjoy what you like, which is what I do. Although, I certainly do understand the heard mentality more typical to collecting cards, that it feels good in seeing consensus approval (pat on the back), and perhaps monetary consistency and even appreciation. There is a certain non-comfort to knowing what you have has none or little by way of comps to suggest any kind of firm values. The flip side of that is that there is a comfort in at least you believing that what you are purchasing is at good value, and furthermore believing that if it is of that value to you, it must be of similar or more value to someone else, at least at some point.

I do agree, the passing of time may bring more collectors and resulting appreciation in popularity and love for the artifact and recognizing its value... or perhaps not, as appreciation may continue to be relegated to a small pocket of collectors. Either way, enjoy what you have, and in your search of it.

Of additional note, as I have said above, many of the items I have are extremely or otherwise rare, and perhaps one-of-a-kind items in some instances. Accordingly, who is to adequately say what value it is, as it changes hands so infrequently, or not at all for a long period of time. When I purchase it, it is worth it to me what I pay for it. To someone else... who knows what it is worth, at any given time? I could go on and on, but I'll stop here.

Other areas of memorabilia have a more defined history of comp values, which can be tracked over time... i.e. autographed items, game used items either coupled with or not coupled with autograph, tickets & stubs, etc.

Thanks for listening, and all please stay safe and well.

Glenn Mechanick

[1880nonsports]

A post!!! You must be working in the house :-)

[TaxMechanick]

Yes indeed Henry; I have been working from home since mid March, and going strong!

Best as Always,
Glenn

[GaryPassamonte]

Hi Glenn. It's been awhile.
I think in many instances, an item's extreme rarity crushes its demand. Some things are virtually not obtainable and because of this they become less desirable. Kind of distorted economics for a nonessential commodity.

[TaxMechanick]

Hey Gary,

It is great hearing from you! It looks like I will not be seeing you in AC, unless, perhaps (postponed from July/August to) December show pans out.

Yup, I certainly agree. Even on the card front, sometimes I hear (i.e. Leon has said to me) that "it is too rare for its own good"!... the story of my life!

Best,
Glenn

[GaryPassamonte]

Many times I'm in the same boat, Glenn. We collect what we like and like what we collect. That's why we've been around so long!

[Hankphenom]

As a memorabilia guy myself, I don't really see that side of the hobby as any kind of weak sister (or some such expression) to cards, or to autographs for that matter. The top pieces go for millions like the top cards, there have been hundreds of items sold for six figures just like the best cards and autographs, and there are very active markets with healthy prices for every area of memorabilia I follow. Perhaps some niches have lost appeal over time and prices have dropped, but look at what happened to photos during that period, for example, and I could only wish that collectors would lose interest in the great old pennants, pins, ad pieces, notebooks, tickets, and all the other "oddball" or "3D" things that get me excited and their prices would take a sudden plunge so I could buy a lot more.

[JeremyW]

Great pieces bring great prices. Cards or memorabilia. Ruth seems to still be the king.

[bigfanNY]

The question supplies a good part of the answer. There is a fairly well defined market for a large number of cards. Especially graded cards. The price difference between buy and sell prices within a range is known. And these cards are relatively liquid. A person can turn an Aaron rookie into cash within a few days. And liquidity is an important part of any market. Most folks sleep better when they know that if something was to happen they could sell their assets. Many Memorabilia pices ( And I collect mostly Memorabilia) are not as liquid. Takes time to sell at Auction etc. And not as portable. ( Sceen from Accountant where he has Action #1 and some rare cards that fit in a backpack in case he has to run.
For me Game used items and large display pieces might not be as marketable but I collect what I like.
J

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by JeremyW

Great pieces bring great prices. Cards or memorabilia. Ruth seems to still be the king.

+1 for both. The question of the thread is how does memorabilia track with cards, and I would answer that historically they have trended closely, from my observation over many years. Whatever ups or downs are happening overall to cards, I would say the same is probably happening in general to memorabilia, also. I doubt if there has ever been any great divergence between them.

[sayheykid54]

Personally, I would much rather own a truly rare one-of-a-kind piece of memorabilia. IMO the prices for authentic quality vintage memorabilia is under priced.

I look at some of the prices people pay for vintage high population graded cards and I think they are crazy)

[mcgwirecom]

Originally Posted by Scott Garner

FWIW, I think that Paul is definitely correct here when it comes to tickets.
Difficult vintage milestone tickets continue to ratchet up in price.
Common tickets are holding their own or losing their pricing strength.
Supply & demand definitely seems to drive pricing.

I may be wrong here, but it seems to me that more collectors are collecting tickets and theme collecting is as popular as ever.

I agree with Scott. There are MANY more people who entered ticket collecting. It is my main focus and 5 years ago I din't know too many folks collecting. Now there are facebook pages where I sell more tickets than on Ebay!

[Huysmans]

To gauge the comparison between memorabilia and card sales/values, you have to first a) contemplate what type of "memorabilia" you're considering - game-used items will of course always maintain higher values compared to "generic" memorabilia, and b) recognize cards as simply what they are - pieces of cardboard that are an industry onto themselves.

Those stating that memorabilia prices traditionally trend closely with cards are with all due respect, completely wrong. While game-used items, just like vintage cards, continue to rise in value, and are currently now reaching appropriate value in the market, generic memorabilia values are arbitrary, with numerous examples of items actually selling for less now than 10 and even 20 years ago. Many memorabilia item values are cyclical, with some areas burgeoning (as Scott mentioned with ticket collecting), while others are extremely lagging (19th century items such as Heubach figurines, figural napkin rings, ceramic mugs/plates, etc have monotone values and have not risen over time).

Also, as mentioned previously, card collecting is an industry onto itself. There are numerous collectors who just love cards and card collecting and have very little to no reverence for baseball or sports in general, including any "memorabilia", game-used or otherwise. This is how as Mark stated, we have a hobby where generic pieces of cardboard that just happen to have a player's image sell for more than any item that player actually used. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE cards, but this is the only way to rationalize their exorbitant values compared to actual historical memorabilia items.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Huysmans

To gauge the comparison between memorabilia and card sales/values, you have to first a) contemplate what type of "memorabilia" you're considering - game-used items will of course always maintain higher values compared to "generic" memorabilia, and b) recognize cards as simply what they are - pieces of cardboard that are an industry onto themselves.

Those stating that memorabilia prices traditionally trend closely with cards are with all due respect, completely wrong. While game-used items, just like vintage cards, continue to rise in value, and are currently now reaching appropriate value in the market, generic memorabilia values are arbitrary, with numerous examples of items actually selling for less now than 10 and even 20 years ago. Many memorabilia item values are cyclical, with some areas burgeoning (as Scott mentioned with ticket collecting), while others are extremely lagging (19th century items such as Heubach figurines, figural napkin rings, ceramic mugs/plates, etc have monotone values and have not risen over time).

Also, as mentioned previously, card collecting is an industry onto itself. There are numerous collectors who just love cards and card collecting and have very little to no reverence for baseball or sports in general, including any "memorabilia", game-used or otherwise. This is how as Mark stated, we have a hobby where generic pieces of cardboard that just happen to have a player's image sell for more than any item that player actually used. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE cards, but this is the only way to rationalize their exorbitant values compared to actual historical memorabilia items.

Although I feel a bit silly even pursuing this matter, which is something like arguing the number of angels on the head of a pin, with all due respect, most of what you just said is ridiculous. I will certainly agree that the game-used area generates the really big numbers like the best cards, but the original proposition specified only "rare and unique" memorabilia trends vs. card trends. Awards do pretty well, too, should they be in a separate category, also? But your main point, that generic memorabilia hasn't gone anywhere while cards were rising in value must have taken place in a different universe than the one I have lived in. I'm not a 19th century collector, but even those items you mentioned, do they really go for what they did 35 or 40 years ago when cards started to take off? And please cite some of the other "numerous examples of items that sell for less than they did 20 years ago." Everything I can think of in the memorabilia realm I've collected and dealt in since then now sells for multiples--in some areas many multiples--of what it did back then. Photos? Ad pieces? Pennants? Pins? Tickets? Player notebooks? How do you think Negro League stuff has done compared to cards, percentage-wise, over that period? I'll give you bobbin head dolls--not that they're not still in great demand, I just think it turned out everyone had a box of them in the closet. Of course, cards are the 800-pound gorilla in the hobby, and why shouldn't they be? There were billions printed, they were every kid's first collecting passion, and they lend themselves to formal organization, cataloguing, and grading like the other gigantic collecting arenas of stamps and coins. Autographs would come second for many of the same reasons. But memorabilia some kind of neglected stepchild compared to those? No way, it's huge in its own right, and growing in popularity, just about every area of it. In my opinion, it will continue to hold up with those others just fine.

[TaxMechanick]

I agree with the point Brent made:
Excerpt:
Many memorabilia item values are cyclical, with some areas burgeoning (as Scott mentioned with ticket collecting), while others are extremely lagging (19th century items such as Heubach figurines, figural napkin rings, ceramic mugs/plates, etc have monotone values and have not risen over time).

This is the point I previously made. These are exactly the kind of items I was referring to, and including, i.e. sheet music; cigar labels, boxes and artwork; (not all, but many) pinbacks, etc.

Please show me where these items have gone up over the last 20 years.... monotone values is probably being conservative, as most of these items have gone down in prices realized, and in some cases significantly down...

The point made by others applies here... Memorabilia is a general term, which must be narrowed and more specified in comparing to card values... yes, in comparing a positive trend on items as game used items, autographs, tickets, etc. No, in comparing any sort of positive trend on certain areas of display memorabilia, i.e. 19th century & turn-century material.

I'm really not that upset; I'm just pointing out the reality, as this monotone or perhaps negative valuation trend on 19th century display material has provided me and others who appreciate this kind of stuff with a great buying opportunity.

With note to above, one may come back with 19th century "card" material "in general" (except for the best of the best) has not kept up with "cards" as a general population. This is true, but I believe this memorabilia area on items as discussed above have fared even worst.

To all, please stay safe and well.

Best,
Glenn Mechanick

[Hankphenom]

I'm not upset, either, I just don't see it. You come up with a few areas that supposedly are flat: Heulbach figurines, "boxes and artwork" (?), cigar labels, sheet music--not exactly prolific areas of the hobby, I would submit--and ignore the hundreds of other categories that have risen considerably in value. How about photos and Negro League, to name just two very large subsets of memorabilia, how have they done in the last 20 years? As for pinbacks, just like cards the great ones have jumped while the common and mundane haven't. What's a nice Cobb P1 going for these days! But that's it for me here, I'd rather focus on the positive: it's a great hobby, all areas have prospered, lots of new collectors coming in all the time--remember the great collapse that was going to take place when baby boomers got old and younger folk weren't going to give a shit about Mickey Mantle? Collect what you like, and don't let anyone tell you that stuff is somehow not up to snuff with cards or anything else--if it excites you, that's all that matters.

[Huysmans]

Originally Posted by TaxMechanick

I agree with the point Brent made:
Excerpt:
Many memorabilia item values are cyclical, with some areas burgeoning (as Scott mentioned with ticket collecting), while others are extremely lagging (19th century items such as Heubach figurines, figural napkin rings, ceramic mugs/plates, etc have monotone values and have not risen over time).

This is the point I previously made. These are exactly the kind of items I was referring to, and including, i.e. sheet music; cigar labels, boxes and artwork; (not all, but many) pinbacks, etc.

Please show me where these items have gone up over the last 20 years.... monotone values is probably being conservative, as most of these items have gone down in prices realized, and in some cases significantly down...

The point made by others applies here... Memorabilia is a general term, which must be narrowed and more specified in comparing to card values... yes, in comparing a positive trend on items as game used items, autographs, tickets, etc. No, in comparing any sort of positive trend on certain areas of display memorabilia, i.e. 19th century & turn-century material.

I'm really not that upset; I'm just pointing out the reality, as this monotone or perhaps negative valuation trend on 19th century display material has provided me and others who appreciate this kind of stuff with a great buying opportunity.

With note to above, one may come back with 19th century "card" material "in general" (except for the best of the best) has not kept up with "cards" as a general population. This is true, but I believe this memorabilia area on items as discussed above have fared even worst.

To all, please stay safe and well.

Best,
Glenn Mechanick

Well said Glenn

This has allowed me as well to buy items that I couldn't afford previously.
And yes some areas of collecting are now getting their due like others have mentioned... but it's just that... they're NOW getting their due. I don't think literally any of these areas of memorabilia have kept pace with cards over time as the OP asked.

[Mark]

Originally Posted by bigfanNY

The question supplies a good part of the answer. There is a fairly well defined market for a large number of cards. Especially graded cards. The price difference between buy and sell prices within a range is known. And these cards are relatively liquid. A person can turn an Aaron rookie into cash within a few days. And liquidity is an important part of any market. Most folks sleep better when they know that if something was to happen they could sell their assets. Many Memorabilia pices ( And I collect mostly Memorabilia) are not as liquid. Takes time to sell at Auction etc. And not as portable. ( Sceen from Accountant where he has Action #1 and some rare cards that fit in a backpack in case he has to run.
For me Game used items and large display pieces might not be as marketable but I collect what I like.
J

This is a good point, and it is well-stated. Thanks.