Will this stock market madness affect cards?

[Shoeless Moe]

Coronavirus - 4,300 dead

WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that.

Take advantage of the over-reactors. Now is the time.

[JollyElm]

I'm buying up all the Gregg Jefferies rookie cards I can find. Soon, I will be in the money!!!!!!!

[Santo10Fan]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I'm buying up all the Gregg Jefferies rookie cards I can find. Soon, I will be in the money!!!!!!!

Hoping those 175 Rashaan Salaam rookies I bought off my uncle will spike soon

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Santo10Fan

Hoping those 175 Rashaan Salaam rookies I bought off my uncle will spike soon

Still have my box of Steve Balboni, Kevin Maas, and Joe Charboneau...the stuff dreams are made of.

[Leon]

I am thinking my cards are a bit better than my stocks at this point. The stock market is a freaking yo-yo.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Coronavirus - 4,300 dead

WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that.

Take advantage of the over-reactors. Now is the time.

There was also a time in the late 30s when WWII had a death toll of 4,300. If you don't recognize that the toll from the virus is likely to be in the millions before the end of the year then you maybe haven't run the numbers. It appears to be lethal in at least 1% of cases and is likely to infect over 1 billion people.

More to the point, people as a species recover from anything shy of extinction, but my understanding is that WWII actually was bad, recovery notwithstanding.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

There was also a time in the late 30s when WWII had a death toll of 4,300. If you don't recognize that the toll from the virus is likely to be in the millions before the end of the year then you maybe haven't run the numbers. It appears to be lethal in at least 1% of cases and is likely to infect over 1 billion people.

More to the point, people as a species recover from anything shy of extinction, but my understanding is that WWII actually was bad, recovery notwithstanding.

I am not an expert on health but infecting nearly 15% of the global population seems pretty extreme. Ohio is trying to suggest that 100,000 people have it and those numbers are wildly inflated according to many medical experts so I am hopeful your estimates are too. By the way so far 13 have tested positive so that is a long way from 100,000.

[Dpeck100]

This doesn't exactly look like a give away.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-...AAAOSwGg5eXaOd

This sale makes me sick because I remember when this card was just breaking a grand.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/11413708634...p2471758.m4704

A BGS 9.5 Jordan brings 21k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-1987-F...gAAOSwKFNeG9oG

PSA 2 Mantle goes for over 20k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-...MAAOSwz2VeXZu1

The hobby isn't slowing down. There are so many collectors that aren't worried about the stock market and it doesn't influence their purchase decisions. I have long argued that hard assets are very attractive to many because regardless of price you still own it.

The wrestling card niche that I am involved in saw explosive auction prices on the last batch of cards that were auctioned off this week. Shockingly high prices. They aren't multi thousand dollar cards but some up 400% or more from prior comps.

Not everyone gets killed when the market falls. I had my biggest trade ever last week and I am kicking myself for not making the same trade yesterday that would have been incredible today. If I want to go hard after a card I am in my best position ever financially and there will be no impact from this virus on my bidding.

Cash flow is king so the issue will be employment trends and in my view this is a multi month issue and the country will come roaring back.

Most of the best cards don't come available frequently and so it is doubtful they will be offered during this time and so even if prices were to dip they won't on the best stuff.

I posted a handful of higher profile cards and I don't see any issues with their prices.

[Goudey77]

David, I agree the good stuff will hold strong. It’s the modern basketball flippers I’m worried about. That Clemente and Mantle were good buys. Thought they’d go slightly higher but still within range.

[drcy]

i was told that the virus can live on hard surfaces, but not cardboard.

[Exhibitman]

FWIW, which admittedly is not much, my eBay sales are still about average.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Goudey77

David, I agree the good stuff will hold strong. It’s the modern basketball flippers I’m worried about. That Clemente and Mantle were good buys. Thought they’d go slightly higher but still within range.

These modern flippers have bid cards up six fold in many cases. When something goes parabolic and finds itself on the other side it can be viscous on the downside.

I think we need to look at cards in the aggregate and the game is far from over.

My little niche is not indicative of the overall card market but there are zero deals to be had. Every item that has any perceived value is highly contested.

When I see Jordan PSA 9's in some cases going for 10k it is hard to suggest the market is soft.

My largest client has a lot of business in China. It died for two months and has come roaring back overnight. If this is the case as most expect in the US it isn't long enough of a slump to hurt the market.

If someone has to sell during this environment perhaps it is soft but the reality is most of the high profile cards from every genre are in strong hands. I get constant emails asking me to sell cards but the reality is I have no interest. This means higher prices not lower prices. When you control such a large amount of the available inventory it means even higher prices.

The people shouting for lower prices don't own the cards. It is that simple.

[Republicaninmass]

The ebayers have begun trying to strike a chord

"Due to the world's condition, I really shouldn't be buying cards, but I'd offer you half of you asking price"

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I get constant emails asking me to sell cards but the reality is I have no interest. This means higher prices not lower prices. When you control such a large amount of the available inventory it means even higher prices.

The people shouting for lower prices don't own the cards. It is that simple.

Simple economics control card prices. Supply and demand set the market price. We’ve had a bull market for over a decade. This prosperity time has increased 401k values and disposable income. Investors and collectors have used this disposable income to purchase cards. This strong demand for cards has increased prices.

If we are entering a recession, 401k values will fall. Moreover, some people will lose their jobs. Those that do not have jobs will not have disposable income to spend on cards. Those that do not lose their jobs will save for a rainy day in case they lose their jobs. They will choose not to spend their disposable income on cards.

The demand will significantly decrease. When this occurs, the prices will fall. Those that have large inventories (supply) have two options. One: they can stop selling and try to ride out the storm. However, who knows how long the recession could last. It could take years for a recession to play out and then years for the prices to return to pre-recession levels. Two: they can sell into the weak demand at lower prices.

Basic economic laws disagree with your premise that higher prices will prevail. Good luck.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

If someone has to sell during this environment perhaps it is soft but the reality is most of the high profile cards from every genre are in strong hands. I get constant emails asking me to sell cards but the reality is I have no interest. This means higher prices not lower prices. When you control such a large amount of the available inventory it means even higher prices.

The people shouting for lower prices don't own the cards. It is that simple.

That doesn't make much sense. At best, you don't sell the cards at the price you want because no one is willing to pay that much. Which means your "prices/values" are imaginary. eBay "museum sellers" have a similar philosophy: "My card is worth $10,000. No one's willing to pay half that much, but it's worth $10,000 because I say so." Market values are identified prices realized, which means buyers and what they are willing to pay most definitely are part of the value equation.

[MULLINS5]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

This doesn't exactly look like a give away.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-...AAAOSwGg5eXaOd

This sale makes me sick because I remember when this card was just breaking a grand.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/11413708634...p2471758.m4704

A BGS 9.5 Jordan brings 21k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-1987-F...gAAOSwKFNeG9oG

PSA 2 Mantle goes for over 20k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-...MAAOSwz2VeXZu1

Two of the four of those are PWCC and their data cannot be trusted. The other two were a one bid and a BIN, which too are not very good examples.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by MULLINS5

Two of the four of those are PWCC and their data cannot be trusted. The other two were a one bid and a BIN, which too are not very good examples.

You have been a sky is falling guy for the ten years I have been online.

I have been very bullish on cards and I am quite comfortable with my track record.

[Frank A]

Gold and silver have been thought to be a great investment for years. Gold and silver have not moved in price for many years. Up a few dollars, down a few dollars. Baseball cards however have continued to climb. I'll stay with cards. Frank

[MULLINS5]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

You have been a sky is falling guy for the ten years I have been online.

I have been very bullish on cards and I am quite comfortable with my track record.

My words may have been misconstrued, but I've never been a sky is falling kind of person (not that there's anything wrong with people like that). Not in hobbies or life in general. Trading cards for me is a hobby. I am a collector. Not an investor, meaning I don't go into a sale hoping the card goes up in value. Future prices have no impact in my buying.

Given all that's come out in the past couple years (been out there longer, but really coming to light thanks to BODA) regarding illegal shilling and fraudulent grading, why pay (fake) premiums for manufactured (low pop) rarity?

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

You have been a sky is falling guy for the ten years I have been online.

I have been very bullish on cards and I am quite comfortable with my track record.

Well ya, an 11 year bull run fuelled by QE and debt has made most bulls look good. Let’s see how all assets perform when cash dries up and people start losing their jobs.

Fwiw I think the underlying fundamentals are decent. And that when demand comes back, the recovery will be dramatic. I am in buy mode myself ( not cards, equities). But this summer is going to be brutal and recession is a guaranty. Don’t underestimate how much of consumer spending is debt financed - HELOCS, credit cards. People are soon to find out they are not as rich as they thought.

[Goudey77]

What data cannot be trusted? You mean the sale results?
Because I can confirm as the buyer that one of those sales is the real deal.

Originally Posted by MULLINS5

Two of the four of those are PWCC and their data cannot be trusted. The other two were a one bid and a BIN, which too are not very good examples.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Goudey77

What data cannot be trusted? You mean the sale results?
Because I can confirm as the buyer that one of those sales is the real deal.

Exactly.

Patrick spouts off like he knows what he is talking about. He has been doing it for ten years online.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Coronavirus - 4,300 dead

WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that.

Take advantage of the over-reactors. Now is the time.

Kudos, sir, for what has to be the most spectacularly asinine analogy of all time! I had to walk away and come back to see if I was reading it correctly.

So what you're saying is, as long as the coronavirus doesn't break that 75 million dead threshold, we're "over-reacting" and the world will be "fine"??

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

Kudos, sir, for what has to be the most spectacularly asinine analogy of all time! I had to walk away and come back to see if I was reading it correctly.

So what you're saying is, as long as the coronavirus doesn't break that 75 million dead threshold, we're "over-reacting" and the world will be "fine"??

YES OVER-reacting is an understatement. Saturday there were 58 dead, today 70.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

12 deaths in 2 days???? Please you get that on a normal day. This is a virus, yah a little stronger obviously, but it will come and go.

How did we have 80,000 die in the US in 2018, and no one over-react then? Media didn't care, now they do.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/...deaths-winter/

Please read that article dated 2018 and explain to me how 80,000 died in 2018, in the US, and today Corona is at 70, and it's mass panic time, seems odd doesn't it?

Remember when the media had Hillary as a shoo in the White House. They can make you believe a lot, if they say it, it must be true right? I personally have no affiliation to either party so my speak isn't politically related like most are in the media. I can live with Trump or Biden. May the best man for the job win.

Viruses kill people each year.

70 dead since this broke in MID FEBRUARY.....and I think like 60% of these are from that one nursing home, who I'm sorry to say but once you are 80-90 there's a lot of stuff that can kill you.

PLAY BALL!!!!

[bobbyw8469]

How did we have 80,000 die in the US in 2018, and no one over-react then? Media didn't care, now they do.

Bingo. We have a winner!! And if you don't know why the media cares now, in an election year, then I can't help you.

[earlywynnfan]

My comment wasn't about if we are overreacting or not, nobody really knows. I question your analogy because:

1) Comparing the beginning of this, or any, world issue to the final result of the worst era in human history is weak, and

2) Anybody who would say something like this:
"WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that."

is some kind of F'in' Idiot!!

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

YES OVER-reacting is an understatement. Saturday there were 58 dead, today 70.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

12 deaths in 2 days???? Please you get that on a normal day. This is a virus, yah a little stronger obviously, but it will come and go.

How did we have 80,000 die in the US in 2018, and no one over-react then? Media didn't care, now they do.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/...deaths-winter/

Please read that article dated 2018 and explain to me how 80,000 died in 2018, in the US, and today Corona is at 70, and it's mass panic time, seems odd doesn't it?

Remember when the media had Hillary as a shoo in the White House. They can make you believe a lot, if they say it, it must be true right? I personally have no affiliation to either party so my speak isn't politically related like most are in the media. I can live with Trump or Biden. May the best man for the job win.

Viruses kill people each year.

70 dead since this broke in MID FEBRUARY.....and I think like 60% of these are from that one nursing home, who I'm sorry to say but once you are 80-90 there's a lot of stuff that can kill you.

PLAY BALL!!!!

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

My comment wasn't about if we are overreacting or not, nobody really knows. I question your analogy because:

1) Comparing the beginning of this, or any, world issue to the final result of the worst era in human history is weak, and

2) Anybody who would say something like this:
"WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that."

is some kind of F'in' Idiot!!

I'll stand by it. Sorry if I'm not politically correct for you. I know if you say anything that isn't soft-served these past few years you get the stink eye. It was just a comparison to all these people crying the sky is falling, it isn't people.

The world has survived plagues, civil wars, WORLD WARS, terrorism, what have you. This will be in the rearview mirror before long. Don't get your panties in a bunch.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

I'll stand by it. Sorry if I'm not politically correct for you. I know if you say anything that isn't soft-served these past few years you get the stink eye. It was just a comparison to all these people crying the sky is falling, it isn't people.

The world has survived plagues, civil wars, WORLD WARS, terrorism, what have you. This will be in the rearview mirror before long. Don't get your panties in a bunch.

I agree. China was ground zero and according to the CDC, their death toll as of Monday morning was 3,218. Cases there are slowing so it appears they are beginning to recover. Not saying I know for certain, but I think the death toll in the USA will be less than that, and this thing should be about over by the middle of June. That will stress the stock market, with lower earnings and companies struggling for cash, but if you hang onto your cards, I'm thinking by Christmas or earlier their value will be intact. For the quality vintage stuff anyway.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

[drcy]

Recent reports say that UK health officials fear that possibly up to 80% or Britains will get it over the upcoming year. With a 1% death rate, that would mean approx. 500,000 British would die.

Just something I read. Don't pretend to be an expert.