Vintage RC price explosion

[BillP]

I consider myself the average collector of 1950's and 60's all 4 major sports. I have recently been looking to buy a psa graded 4/5/6 63 Rose, 67 seaver, 69 alcindor, 65 namath and 68 ryan. If I had moved on some of these 6-9 months ago, I think I could have purchased most of them at 60% of where prices are now. The alcindor for sure. So where does this market leave the average collector with a reasonable budget? Priced out. Does this mean that the future of buying a 63 or 67 set let's say is beyond the average persons wallet? Probably.
Somewhat discouraging for those that are in this hobby for the joy and collecting aspect rather than gain. Sounds like 1983/84/85 all over again. On another note, my list of wants above were all related to buying graded cards as there are too many fakes that show up and cause trouble. As an example, I own a 62 post FB set. I put this together over a few years and really enjoy it. But recently, I have seen reprints, and quality reprints at that right down to uneven cuts that would throw the average collector off.
I'm venting and I'm glad I own what I own, but I feel priced out.

BillP

[SPMIDD]

I hear your vent and feel your pain! I sold off most of my vintage stuff back in 2013 and just recently started collecting again and the sticker shock is off the charts. As far as grading goes, I buy some graded stuff but I really prefer raw cards so I have to be careful that what I am buying is legit. I am just going to rely on the expertise of this board and ask for guidance when I am going to make a relative large purchase as long as I do not wear out my welcome with the experts. . Also, I still think there are some decent deals to be made if I take my time but that is very hard for me as I like instant gratification most of the time.

[gustomania]

I really can relate to this. However I’m going to spin it another direction.

I’ve always been a Rose fan and always wanted his 63 but never did because the card is flat out ugly. I’ve recently gotten excited and comfortable knowing I really am more happy with a 65, 69 and many others that I feel are just better examples. That’s just me, like today I picked up a 70 Seaver PSA 8 that is really nice. While his 67 is awesome I would rather have 3-4 strong Seaver examples than A low grade rookie (unless it is like a 2 that presents like a 7)

I collect a lot of Koufax and prefer his 1956 to his rookie by far. Matter of fact this year I’ve purchased 2 1956 PSA 7 and a 4.5 Gray that each costly more than his rookie I purchased last year. I love the 56 card and if I ever had to let one go it would be his 55 PSA 2.5 rather than my 1956 Koufax.

That’s just me and my experience take it with a grain of salt.

Originally Posted by BillP

I consider myself the average collector of 1950's and 60's all 4 major sports. I have recently been looking to buy a psa graded 4/5/6 63 Rose, 67 seaver, 69 alcindor, 65 namath and 68 ryan. If I had moved on some of these 6-9 months ago, I think I could have purchased most of them at 60% of where prices are now. The alcindor for sure. So where does this market leave the average collector with a reasonable budget? Priced out. Does this mean that the future of buying a 63 or 67 set let's say is beyond the average persons wallet? Probably.
Somewhat discouraging for those that are in this hobby for the joy and collecting aspect rather than gain. Sounds like 1983/84/85 all over again. On another note, my list of wants above were all related to buying graded cards as there are too many fakes that show up and cause trouble. As an example, I own a 62 post FB set. I put this together over a few years and really enjoy it. But recently, I have seen reprints, and quality reprints at that right down to uneven cuts that would throw the average collector off.
I'm venting and I'm glad I own what I own, but I feel priced out.

BillP

[ullmandds]

Agree with most of the sentiment here...I'm not a big fan of multi player rookie cards. So this crazy price escalation means...focus on 2nd year cards or cards you just like in grades you can afford!!!

[cardsagain74]

Been a nice year for vintage baseball of the '50s and '60s year, but if you regret having to pay up, the price increases are very minimal compared to a lot of other high-end cards.

PSA 9s and 10s of the best '80s rookie cards from the other sports like Gretzky, Lemieux, any '86 Fleer basketball HOFer, and plenty of others have increased 5 to 8 times in value this year.

If this were the late '90s in the stock market, vintage baseball has been like owning longtime utility stocks (while those top '80s high-end PSA cards are the tech boomers)

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by BillP

I'm venting and I'm glad I own what I own, but I feel priced out.

BillP

Bill,

I have read so many posts on here of members complaining about being priced out of the market. I feel your pain. However, there is good news: prices can't keep going up forever. There will be a big market correction someday, but not for a while.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Agree with most of the sentiment here...I'm not a big fan of multi player rookie cards. So this crazy price escalation means...focus on 2nd year cards or cards you just like in grades you can afford!!!

Agree. I picked up the Bench and T Perez second year cards in November. I'm very happy with both. Hoping to pick up a Rose All Star RC soon.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[cesarcap]

It does feel like a bubble. I told someone looking at hoops stuff, this feels like a few years ago when high end mid 80's rc cards went down, and he was surprised. But then later came back to me (I presume after researching)and said I guess cards do go down...

[Gorditadogg]

One good thing about the prices is it has encouraged more people to sell so there are a lot of nice cards in the market.

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[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by gustomania

I’ve always been a Rose fan and always wanted his 63 but never did because the card is flat out ugly. I’ve recently gotten excited and comfortable knowing I really am more happy with a 65, 69 and many others that I feel are just better examples. That’s just me, like today I picked up a 70 Seaver PSA 8 that is really nice. While his 67 is awesome I would rather have 3-4 strong Seaver examples than A low grade rookie (unless it is like a 2 that presents like a 7)

+1.

A lot of vintage RC's have gotten stupid expensive just within the last year, including Rose. I had one in 2019, a nice PSA 5. It was cool to own for a while, but like you said - I decided I really just didn't like the card. It's a ton of cash for floating heads... If it had been a $200 RC or something I probably would have kept it, but I decided for that kind of money I'd rather have other Mantle cards or other HOF'ers or something. So I sold it, and now about a year later probably could have been selling it for at least $300 more in a PSA 5 than what I got. That's nuts. I like Rose too, but am making do right now with a nice '66 Topps and a few of his early 70's cards in decent shape.

As for the rest, also very true that 2nd year cards and other early issues are certainly proving to be quite the bargain over the rookie cards. With Seaver, I have his '68 All-Star RC raw in what would probably be about EX-MT, which is an insane value when comparing it to the '67 high number. Earlier this year, I had a chance to get a Clemente RC in probably about the 3 range after I sold off some prewar HOF'ers that I was no longer interested in. I decided to upgrade my '56 Mantle instead, and it's like boom - that window closed. What I would have spent on a lower grade Clemente wasn't possible even just a few months later. No regrets for me, but it is crazy to see how this year has gone. I would imagine like previous bubbles - prices may settle at some point, but I doubt they will drop entirely / revert to 2018 prices or anything for the marquee RC's of the 50's like Aaron, Banks, Clemente, Koufax, Gibson, et al., and then Rose, Seaver, & Ryan in the 60's.

[ullmandds]

I can't justify the cost of the rose rookie...I much prefer the 64'...but in my collection resides a nice autographed 64' kahns!!!!

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I can't justify the cost of the rose rookie...I much prefer the 64'...but in my collection resides a nice autographed 64' kahns!!!!

That's nice!

[SPMIDD]

I agree that second year cards are the way to go if the rookie card is out of the question due to price. I have used that strategy in the past and I have a bunch of them myself. As far as the Rose rookie goes, I think the floating head card is awesome and am thankful that I have one in my collection but I might be a bit biased since I am such a Reds fan.

[hcv123]

Baseball cards like many other "commodities" are ultimately supply and demand driven markets. When demand outpaces supply there is upward price pressure. When Supply outpaces demand there is downward price pressure.

It is not a simple straight line, but for the purposes of this response, I will keep it simple.

Barring a massive find, the supply of vintage cards is relatively finite and not going to change. So the argument has to be made that there has been a significant spike in demand driving the price appreciation. The real key as to what happens to prices moving forward is going to be tied to where all this new demand is from and what happens with it moving forward. With the amount of mainstream coverage that has been received, don't discount the possibility that demand can still increase! That said, if demand decreases - so too prices will follow.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by gustomania

I really can relate to this. However I’m going to spin it another direction.

I’ve always been a Rose fan and always wanted his 63 but never did because the card is flat out ugly. I’ve recently gotten excited and comfortable knowing I really am more happy with a 65, 69 and many others that I feel are just better examples. That’s just me, like today I picked up a 70 Seaver PSA 8 that is really nice. While his 67 is awesome I would rather have 3-4 strong Seaver examples than A low grade rookie (unless it is like a 2 that presents like a 7)

I collect a lot of Koufax and prefer his 1956 to his rookie by far. Matter of fact this year I’ve purchased 2 1956 PSA 7 and a 4.5 Gray that each costly more than his rookie I purchased last year. I love the 56 card and if I ever had to let one go it would be his 55 PSA 2.5 rather than my 1956 Koufax.

That’s just me and my experience take it with a grain of salt.

Totally agree with your sentiment regarding Rose and Seaver's cards. I'd add Nolan Ryan and Johnny Bench to that list. I'm sure there are others. Perhaps even Schmidt, though the blow on that one is softened because I liked Ron Cey, too.

[mintacular]

The other way to "get around" this is to drop your desired grade 1 to 2 grades and you will be in the ballpark of what you originally wanted to spend.... Just a thought....

[Exhibitman]

If for your PC, what's the difference what the label on the slab says? As long as you like the cards, thats what counts. My big postwar RCs are usually lower grade because I don't want to pay a premium for a plastic tomb. Some are even raw. I've even sold off the ones I got into early and taken the profit and replaced them with low grade examples at a fraction of the price. Funny thing is that as the higher grade prices have gone out of the ballpark, the lower grade ones have run up too. Case in point: I bought a 1954 Aaron RC in VG condition a few years ago to replace a PSA 7 I sold and the most recent sales prices have been 500% of what I paid.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

If for your PC, what's the difference what the label on the slab says? As long as you like the cards, thats what counts. My big postwar RCs are usually lower grade because I don't want to pay a premium for a plastic tomb. Some are even raw. I've even sold off the ones I got into early and taken the profit and replaced them with low grade examples at a fraction of the price. Funny thing is that as the higher grade prices have gone out of the ballpark, the lower grade ones have run up too. Case in point: I bought a 1954 Aaron RC in VG condition a few years ago to replace a PSA 7 I sold and the most recent sales prices have been 500% of what I paid.

I've very much embraced this mentality. If it's for my PC, as long as it presents nicely, and I'm happy with it, I care very little about the grade.

Quite honestly, as long as I can definitely prove the card is authentic I prefer it to be unslabbed.

And to echo what a few have posted here, it's certainly a thing with supply and demand. As long as the pandemic, and sporadic lockdowns continue here in the states, the card prices will remain strong. I think 50's and 60's vintage will come back down to earth somewhat, as people exit the hobby to pursue the things they did when they could still go outside and on vacation and what not. However barring another major crash, I don't think we'll see pre 2018 prices.

[Tere1071]

When I started my 53 Bowman color set in December of 2019 the prices were more or less reasonable for the majority of the singles. On eBay, the asking prices of late have become more expensive but I keep seeing the same cards posted over and over at the same prices so perhaps there's some resistance.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Been a nice year for vintage baseball of the '50s and '60s year, but if you regret having to pay up, the price increases are very minimal compared to a lot of other high-end cards.

PSA 9s and 10s of the best '80s rookie cards from the other sports like Gretzky, Lemieux, any '86 Fleer basketball HOFer, and plenty of others have increased 5 to 8 times in value this year.

If this were the late '90s in the stock market, vintage baseball has been like owning longtime utility stocks (while those top '80s high-end PSA cards are the tech boomers)

Wow! I have an OPC Lemieux RC PSA 9 that I couldn't sell here for 1k. It looks like it is 5500-6500 now.

[jb67]

Originally Posted by rats60

Wow! I have an OPC Lemieux RC PSA 9 that I couldn't sell here for 1k. It looks like it is 5500-6500 now.

I remember that card. I almost made a trade for it but instead ended up with your Dr. J. PSA 8 rookie. I think you ended up with the Bench rookie. If I remember correctly we did a trade and some cash involved. On the bright side I did get that Dr. J. to bump to an 8.5.

[Stampsfan]

I do wonder when we ever get back to normal, if the extra cash will be put back into other things. I am lucky enough to have season tickets to our local NHL club, plus our CFL team. I'm saving thousands with no fans in the stands. Add in no travel and lots of time on my hands, I have added a few decent items to my collection.

Eventually, I believe there will be a few less eyeballs following auctions and thus a few less bidders. While there may not be a huge drop, I think there will be, at minimum, a levelling of prices. For lower grade cards of items such as 1979 OPC Gretzky, there will be so many PSA 4's or equivalents that pricing on that type of product will not sustain.

[Exhibitman]

You never know. Past experiences with big price runs is that they fall off but not to previous levels. The PSA 8 Dr. J RC ran up to nearly $10K over the summer and is back down to the $4K range now. It was about $1200 before this started. I don't think we are going to see it back down there absent a really catastrophic outside event that crushes the economy.