Out of Touch

[Yoda]

I have been batting about .090 on recent auctions where I have been active. Always hopeful that a new AH might be of interest, I checked out Rabbit Hole to see what was on offer, bidding etc. and must confess I was a bit underwhelmed by their offerings.
Of particular note, was the Ruth Leaf, a well-loved graded 1, which opened, to me at least, at a very high 1k and is already 2k.
This marketplace is for me fraught with peril. I don't know who I am bidding against; well-heeled collectors, collecting clubs, private equity funds, AH's, Amazon or the Good Lord himself.
I am basically a wholesaler, trying to build decent consignments to offer up to a few select AH's. That is proving near impossible, with exponential price records set with every auction.
The sports card market has become one for the big boys. Money has made most of the cards I seek out of reach. I did retail and made out well, but I am too old to try that again. Perhaps I am perpetually stuck in the 2000 card world and still
think that way. The cards haven't changed but the market certainly has.
Finally, I believe the stock market is overbought and likewise the card market. Apologies for the lament.

[4815162342]

John, you missed an opportunity for a great thread title.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

John, you missed an opportunity for a great thread title.

'Brother, you best listen to me right now.'

[raulus]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

John, you missed an opportunity for a great thread title.

The cardboard is too damn high!!!

[raulus]

Sounds like you're primarily buying from AHs so that you can re-sell through other AHs?

If so, then I agree that you're not likely to find many deals that you can flip that way. I could see a twist on that strategy working, if you were looking to buy obscure stuff that might get overlooked at auction, and then turn around and market it through some other venue, like eBay BIN or some fixed-price marketplace.

There's no question that the everything rally these days sure makes most assets seem crazy expensive, whether we're talking about stocks or real estate or bitcoin or even gold. But while the music is playing, you kind of have to get up and dance, unless you want to sit on all of your cash and just be patient while everything keeps going nuts, in the hope that someday the music will finally stop.

[Brent G.]

I think we're in the midst of another buying frenzy similar to 2020-21. Like then, people are spending more time (and money) in the hobby to avoid looking at the god-awful world outside ... I know I am. There's also an increasing number of educated buyers going after the best of the best. What's different this time is this isn't propped up by free money from the U.S. government.

[Kutcher55]

Originally Posted by Brent G.

I think we're in the midst of another buying frenzy similar to 2020-21. Like then, people are spending more time (and money) in the hobby to avoid looking at the god-awful world outside ... I know I am. There's also an increasing number of educated buyers going after the best of the best. What's different this time is this isn't propped up by free money from the U.S. government.

Yep I concur.

[brunswickreeves]

There’s definitely been a fascinating shift in buying and selling since Covid. I’ve dialed in my PC focus to keep resources and time laser focused. I’m also increasing time and energy on maximizing my own core competencies to create the economics possible for the cards I love. Reason being is that:

eBay: Buyers have more competition than ever to win under radar auctions, thus driving up prices. Buyers are also facing elevated prices for BIN items, given a proliferation of business sellers maximizing profit, vs individual sellers less knowable about their collection’s value or happy to sell for some profit and to a help a collector fulfill a mission. Thus non professional buyer’s flipping of cards may be less profitable and require significantly more time on the platform to find and snag gems.

eBay: Sellers pay higher fees (unless registering as a storefront), pay tax in some cases, and have to wait sometimes weeks after a sale for money to hit their bank, after their sold card meanders down the new eBay authentication path and then gets repackaged and sent to the buyer.

AH: More total number of auctions each year drive increasing costs of iconic cards (eg 52 Topps Mantle or CJ Jackson). Greater competition of more ‘investors’ and ‘speculators’ also drives up prices, sometimes even causing one to bid against themselves. Sellers are also turning more to AHs to maximize their card’s exposure and profit, reducing availability on eBay.

Seller websites, FB, IG: Growing presence on social media may be rising card prices through greater awareness, being part of a collector group, and FOMA.

[Yoda]

Nic, you are right; a lot of the cards I go after are with AH's, but also buy from Ebay, B/S/T, private trades. My current business model is busted. Obscurity is a great idea, but how do you explore obscurity.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Nic, you are right; a lot of the cards I go after are with AH's, but also buy from Ebay, B/S/T, private trades. My current business model is busted. Obscurity is a great idea, but how do you explore obscurity.

Here’s an example of a recent win for me based on an obscure issue. Picked this hand cut beauty up a few years ago for $1,829. Subsequently bought a nicer looking one, so this one was available to sell. I’ve been trying to sell it on eBay for a while, without success, so moved it a few months ago over to the new REA marketplace. Just sold a couple of weeks ago for $17,500. After REA’s 5% cut, I netted $16,625. Just got my check today! There are only 3 graded by PSA, and since I still have another one, I was willing to part with this one.

Of course, the government will take $6k of my profits here, so it’s not quite as extreme as it would seem before taxes, but still worked out pretty well for me.

[Snapolit1]

I see most high end cards going through the roof and most other stuff not going up or just a little. My memorabilia sales in 2025 have been nothing to write home about, and some have been downright disasterous.

Sort of like real estate in my neighborhood. The million dollar listed homes are going off a $1.5M, and the $380,000 homes are selling for basically $380,000.

Maybe a lot of people are sitting on crypto profits. I just don't understand where all this money is coming from. All I hear is bitching about how expensive everything has gotten.

[steve B]

I've been in that same rut multiple times since the late 70's. I get used to prices, cant find "bargains" anymore and have a slump and work on other hobbies. Then something gets me back into it, a bargain found or something new learned, and suddenly I have to get used to a whole new price structure.

Still haven't gotten used to vg T206 commons being almost 100

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I see most high end cards going through the roof and most other stuff not going up or just a little. My memorabilia sales in 2025 have been nothing to write home about, and some have been downright disasterous.

Sort of like real estate in my neighborhood. The million dollar listed homes are going off a $1.5M, and the $380,000 homes are selling for basically $380,000.

Maybe a lot of people are sitting on crypto profits. I just don't understand where all this money is coming from. All I hear is bitching about how expensive everything has gotten.

Define "high end"; that covers a lot of territory.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Hey John:

I feel the same way as you do in many respects and I assume that we are talking about vintage and not modern cards. First off, I have to agree that most/all of the cards that I REALLY want for the PC have gotten completely out of reach today. As far as buying to resell these days, I believe you can break things down into three categories. If you’ve got “big bucks” to spend (5-6 figures), a lot of money can be made right now in this overheated market, as the premium cards continue to set records (this could all change tomorrow but I am only speaking for today). If you have the funds to make 4-figure purchases regularly, the key is to buy high eye-appeal cards maybe 10-20% below comps and resell at around 20-30% above comps, highlighting the “premier for the grade” aspect. This only works if you DON’T HAVE TO sell them very quickly in order to recoup the money to keep this process going. Finally, if you’re on more of a shoestring budget, you need to buy mostly at card shows, squeeze the seller out of every last dollar that you can and resell as close to comps as you can get. Outside of these strategies, I don’t see this being a very lucrative endeavor these days. I continue to try to do this for a living and am only still around because of the giant head start that I had from my 2004-2014 collection.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Hey John:

I feel the same way as you do in many respects and I assume that we are talking about vintage and not modern cards. First off, I have to agree that most/all of the cards that I REALLY want for the PC have gotten completely out of reach today. As far as buying to resell these days, I believe you can break things down into three categories. If you’ve got “big bucks” to spend (5-6 figures), a lot of money can be made right now in this overheated market, as the premium cards continue to set records (this could all change tomorrow but I am only speaking for today). If you have the funds to make 4-figure purchases regularly, the key is to buy high eye-appeal cards maybe 10-20% below comps and resell at around 20-30% above comps, highlighting the “premier for the grade” aspect. This only works if you DON’T HAVE TO sell them very quickly in order to recoup the money to keep this process going. Finally, if you’re on more of a shoestring budget, you need to buy mostly at card shows, squeeze the seller out of every last dollar that you can and resell as close to comps as you can get. Outside of these strategies, I don’t see this being a very lucrative endeavor these days. I continue to try to do this for a living and am only still around because of the giant head start that I had from my 2004-2014 collection.

Phil, great advise and pretty much what I am unsuccessfully trying to do now. The number of cards I have been the underbidder are just the cards you refer to. Sniping, I suppose, is the answer, and my air defenses are weak. Like you, I sort of survive on preCovid purchases, purchased when prices seem high but sane.
All I know is that I have not taken on any debt to buy cards and worry about those that might be heavily leveraged to take on acquisitions they only plan on flipping in a couple of months. Markets ebb and flow but sometimes the dam bursts.

[Exhibitman]

Some things that work for me, at least in terms of commerce:

Beat the bushes. I hit every antique show, flea market, yard sale and estate sale I can find. I don't always find stuff but sometimes I do.

Broaden your reach. Maybe you study up on nonsports and try to make money there.

Obscurity means lack of price transparency. I look for categories of items where pricing is not easily understood.

Price discipline is paramount when purchasing. It is a numbers game. I have a price and that's it. If the seller says no, I walk (or at least I should; still licking my wounds over a bad deal at the show in August).

Follow Mr. Keeler's advice (thread needs a card anyway)



I hit 'em where they ain't. If there is a surge in excitement over Mantle, buy Aaron. If T206 has an extreme year, buy T205.

In the collecting arena, I used to just grab whatever caught my eye. Now, what works best for me is to try and go after only very specific cards for specific reasons. Like, I wanted to complete my E254 Tinker-Evers-Chance, so I went after a Chance in LOTG. I went to the National looking to upgrade some specific cards.

[bmattioli]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Some things that work for me, at least in terms of commerce:

Beat the bushes. I hit every antique show, flea market, yard sale and estate sale I can find. I don't always find stuff but sometimes I do.

Broaden your reach. Maybe you study up on nonsports and try to make money there.

Obscurity means lack of price transparency. I look for categories of items where pricing is not easily understood.

Good advise.. Gotta dig everywhere..

[OhioLawyerF5]

There are more collectors in the hobby than ever before. Collectors tend to pay market price for cards as they are planning on keeping them. The more collectors in the marketplace, the less room for flippers like yourself to make easy money. And frankly, I think it's for the best. The fewer flippers and middlemen trying to make a buck between the owner of a card and the collector who will end up with it long term the better for collectors.

[ALBB]

Yea, everybody looking for a deal, or a steal of a deal, or hustling around,, looking under " rocks" ....... me Id rather go the lazy way...sit on my butt...trying to win stuff off Ebay !

[Kutcher55]

People continue to return to the hobby. I’m 52 and my close high school buddy got back into vintage this year. I’m sure he’s not the only one. Much like during Covid times when the world turned sideways people take comfort in vintage sports cards to help cope with the increasingly scary outside world. The markets also play a role in this. Where there was a lot of free money floating around during Covid and lower income workers were impacted more negatively than people who could work remotely, now you have a year where the markets are all climbing like crazy. Who knows how long that will last but you have to think it’s driving prices up. Also this feeling that the dollar is weakening drives people to put money into other assets, like gold and like baseball cards.

[JJ McGraw]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

There are more collectors in the hobby than ever before. Collectors tend to pay market price for cards as they are planning on keeping them. The more collectors in the marketplace, the less room for flippers like yourself to make easy money. And frankly, I think it's for the best. The fewer flippers and middlemen trying to make a buck between the owner of a card and the collector who will end up with it long term the better for collectors.

Couldn’t agree more as a collector. But auctions , as we all see, are a crazy place right now. Even here on the BST , I see a lot of high end cards in the categories I follow and not much middle of the road. Facebook groups and eBay tend to be the places to get deals , but with eBay, you must factor in the tax and shipping , which can add $20 to the price. I got back into the hobby last fall and am very glad I did, having to relearn the current overall “lay of the land” since I had stopped. And even though that was barely a year ago, I’d hate to be re-entering right now, especially without the knowledge and insight I’ve gained since then. It’s still the greatest hobby and hunt will never be anything but thrilling and rewarding……a collector has to figure out what works for them…..and,of course, their pocket book.

[marcmandel]

Yoda, oh, wise one. Rather than me risking the wrath of many and a flooded inbox for what I'm about to offer up as a suggestion for salvation, please reach out to me privately, and we'll chat. I may have a solution that will prove a winner for what you're looking to do. I'm at marc@wowmoments.us and we'll talk there, then. Thnx.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I am basically a wholesaler, trying to build decent consignments to offer up to a few select AH's.

The issue is…EVERYONE is trying to do this.

Every day more people move into the hobby to try to do stuff like this, making it harder and harder.

[Exhibitman]

"Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded". Yogi Berra

Basically, the current trends reward incumbents, those lucky (or prescient) enough to have man caves packed with vintage cards bought back in the day. Everyone else has to find stuff in the wild or pony up.

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Basically, the current trends reward incumbents, those lucky (or prescient) enough to have man caves packed with vintage cards bought back in the day. Everyone else has to find stuff in the wild or pony up.

Yes, this^^^ I wish I was buying up pre-war cards in the 1970s. I suppose it's all relative. There are cards that I picked up in 2019 that have gone up a lot since then.

Finding a bargain is hard...it's always been hard. But with more people in the market it's harder. Occasionally, I find great bargains in an auction while lots of people are chasing the high end items. But I have to follow hundreds of items to just get one. It makes collecting slower but that's the game.

The OP is trying to trade into market inefficiencies. That's called arbitrage. With lot of market participants and an efficient market, arbitrage opportunities are few and far between.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Yes, this^^^ I wish I was buying up pre-war cards in the 1970s. I suppose it's all relative. There are cards that I picked up in 2019 that have gone up a lot since then.

Finding a bargain is hard...it's always been hard. But with more people in the market it's harder. Occasionally, I find great bargains in an auction while lots of people are chasing the high end items. But I have to follow hundreds of items to just get one. It makes collecting slower but that's the game.

The OP is trying to trade into market inefficiencies. That's called arbitrage. With lot of market participants and an efficient market, arbitrage opportunities are few and far between.

That's exactly where I find myself; playing the arbitrage game with diminishing opportunities and reduced returns.
Thanks for all the positive input. Much appreciated, and I will refocus my energies and capital in a different direction. And, Nic, I loved your bit with the Mays Hire's card; a win/win and shows that the veil of obscurity can be pierced.

[gunboat82]

I've always been a bit out of touch, but lately I feel like I'm on a different planet. The latest Clean Sweep auction has made me question all of my everything I thought I knew about current values. Some of the cards -- in particular Ruths and Gehrigs -- are already priced higher than I thought they'd be after the 22% premium is added. I think some of these are going to set sales records for low-grade copies with average to below-average eye appeal.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

The OP is trying to trade into market inefficiencies. That's called arbitrage. With lot of market participants and an efficient market, arbitrage opportunities are few and far between.

Agreed. This is exactly why I started collecting tickets and feel there is real upside in most other card-adjacent items, like photos, game-used, unopened, autos, etc. Those markets are much more fragmented- they are less understood and there is less information (price guides, grading data, etc), which leads to fewer participants. However, as cards continue their run, people priced out or looking for other opportunities will start buying the closest alternatives, which I think are tickets and photos. And, as more people buy those alternatives, more information is collected, collated, and distributed, and the more reliable that market becomes, thus attracting more participants, including “investors”, and it continues to build from there.

The upside is in the card-adjacencies. And, frankly, they are cooler than cards in many ways.

“People will come Ray. People will most definitely come”. Terrance Mann

[Swadewade51]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Agreed. This is exactly why I started collecting tickets and feel there is real upside in most other card-adjacent items, like photos, game-used, unopened, autos, etc.

We've seen you posting some huge tickets recently, are you going to dip your toes into photos and other adjacencies as well?

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