Will there be a post-war card again like the 52 Mantle ?

[chalupacollects]

No, never again... the card companies long ago ruined that...maybe a 1 of 1 Mike Trout auto rookie 4 color patch card graded gem mint 10. If that even exists... and if he is in top 5 all time in top offensive categories and unanimous HOF first time ballot.... lol

[Leon]

Not baseball but...

Jordan rookie

.

[RaidonCollects]

I think it could happen. The '68 Ryan/Koosman and the '89 UD Griffey are already very popular, but not as much as the Mantle. Mickey Mantle defined the 1950s and 60s for baseball, and until someone else does that, there will not be another '52 Mantle. Also, I think that even with manufactured scarcity there can still be huge demand for some cards, take the 2008 Topps Kershaw for example.

Just my thoughts

Owen

[irv]

Originally Posted by RaidonCollects

I think it could happen. The '68 Ryan/Koosman and the '89 UD Griffey are already very popular, but not as much as the Mantle. Mickey Mantle defined the 1950s and 60s for baseball, and until someone else does that, there will not be another '52 Mantle. Also, I think that even with manufactured scarcity there can still be huge demand for some cards, take the 2008 Topps Kershaw for example.

Just my thoughts

Owen

The Ryan RC is already there. Only 1.2 or 1.5 CDN for this one!
http://www.ebay.ca/itm/1968-Topps-17...item2387fdcdbe

[steve B]

I doubt there will be another 52 Mantle sort of situation anytime soon. It's got all the things that make for a really expensive collectible.

It's not common at all, but not so rare that someone couldn't find one.
The subject is incredibly popular, even across generations.
Bonus for the subject being possibly the biggest star from the biggest media market, And that he was that star at just about the perfect time.
It's got a good backstory, maybe not as good as the Wagner, but the fewer produced/not necessarily available everywhere/Excess unsaleable inventory being dumped off a trash barge by the company is a pretty good one.

Today there's too much access to the players for them to be as revered as the players in the 50's.
The PED era leaves most of us with just a bit of doubt/mistrust.
Cards are widely collected, so most get saved as opposed to thrown out.
Companies just don't usually operate in ways that would lead to a great backstory, and if for some reason they did we're all too jaded to find it amazing.

Imagine if Mantle had played for Kansas City, and was regularly in the paper for drinking too much and saying crass things, and the High numbers had hung around the warehouse for a decade or two until they got sold to the Christmas racks makers. No matter how great he was his card would be just another star card.

[nat]

"Imagine if Mantle had played for Kansas City..."

...the Yankees would have traded Johnny Hopp (or whomever) for him, and everything else would be unchanged.

[Jenx34]

Just to add to what others have said....

There can't be another card like the '52 Mantle because:
1. Cards have been somewhat commoditized (is that a word?). There are printed values so the awareness of even every day non-collectors is there? How many people try to sell their baseball card collections and think they are sitting on a lot of money before ultimately realizing the junk era wasn't going to be their retirement?
2. Piggybacking off that, many people see baseball cards as an investment now. It's no longer a hobby. What Beckett and PSA have done to the hobby is kill the casual hobby part of it. For many that's not a bad thing, but it changed everything.
3. I'm not into modern cards at all, but it does seem interest is higher than it has been in a long time. But that interest is in how many autos, relics, etc you find, and the rest are throw aways. That may not be a ton different from earlier years... We were all looking for the superstars when we opened packs, but we weren't looking so that we could turn around and sell that autographed card for $1,000 right out of the pack.
4. I also wonder what so many options will do to the business 10-15 years ago. How many different cards can Topps make? Topps, Topps Chrome, Stadium Club, Finest, Allen & Ginter, Gypsy Queen, Archives, Heritage, Definitive Collection, Fire, Gold Label, Topps Now, Bunt, Museum Collection, Bowman, Bowman Chrome, Platinum... Hell my head hurts now. Will too many options cause confusion over what to collect and ultimately lead to people losing interest or will one of these become that Holy Grail if a player becomes a superstar?
5. Lastly, as someone else pointed out there is too much access. Too much baseball on TV. There is no longer any mystery about a player. Word of mouth details about players lives is now photos and social media put out immediately. Even though everyone know who Mickey Mantle was, it was still rare to be able to see him play unless you were in an American League city. How often could you watch the Yankees on TV in the 50's? With no mystery, I believe, nothing like the '52 Mantle can happen again.

[Volod]

Originally Posted by nat

"Imagine if Mantle had played for Kansas City..."

...the Yankees would have traded Johnny Hopp (or whomever) for him, and everything else would be unchanged.

Hah, KC was a long-time NY farm team - even after it putatively joined the majors - so, the Yankees would have just brought him up by demoting a couple of marginal players to the A's. If he had been found by another team before the Yanks, that team's owner likely would have turned him over for a case of cracked bats. Roger Maris was an example of that process.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Leon

Not baseball but...

Jordan rookie

.

Interesting thought. Jordan is the only player (other than perhaps Tom Brady) since Mantle who has dominated like Mantle (one of just seven players in all of baseball history who created more than 200% of the runs created by a league average player in the course of his entire career (with the others being Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Gehrig and Joe Jackson--Mays and Aaron, in comparison, were each in the 180% range); 12 pennants won in his first 14 years, and seven WS championships). On the negative side regarding the '86-87 Fleer: print run has been estimated at 200,000.

Highest regards,

Larry

PS: Jordan probably is the only athlete since Mantle to have made a similar impact on the professional sports scene.

[RaidonCollects]

Just adding to my previous statement, the Mantle card had so many different factors which contributed to the cards' fame.

1. He was a superstar, everyone knew his name by the mid-50s.
2. Iconic design ('52 topps).
3. Relative level of scarcity (while there are rarer early mantle cards like the '52 Berk Ross, the 52 Mantle's popularity was immensely boosted by it's notoriety for being tougher than many other 52 cards).
4. Interesting stories about the card, such as the tale of the NYC Harbor '52 high# cases (even if it may be made up).
5. Made in a important year for the player (most of the time a rookie, or in this case a year off being a rookie).

An example of a card that comes fairly close is the Billy Ripken 89 Fleer, which fits into 1, 3 and 4 (less so 1, but he was still a very noteworthy player).

The chances of this all happening again in the near future are quite low, but I think it is entirely possible.

Just my thoughts,

Owen

[rats60]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Interesting thought. Jordan is the only player (other than perhaps Tom Brady) since Mantle who has dominated like Mantle (one of just seven players in all of baseball history who created more than 200% of the runs created by a league average player in the course of his entire career (with the others being Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Gehrig and Joe Jackson--Mays and Aaron, in comparison, were each in the 180% range); 12 pennants won in his first 14 years, and seven WS championships). On the negative side regarding the '86-87 Fleer: print run has been estimated at 200,000.

Highest regards,

Larry

No one cared about how many runs Mantle hypothetically created. No one was playing fantasy baseball in 1952. If it was Willie Mays or Eddie Mathews on the Yankees, hitting 500 Hrs and winning 12 pennants and 7 championships in 14 years, their card would be the million dollar card and Mantle would be much less.

It is the first major set for a company making baseball cards for 65+ years aligning with a 2nd year card of the star of the greatest dynasty in baseball history.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by rats60

No one cared about how many runs Mantle hypothetically created. No one was playing fantasy baseball in 1952. If it was Willie Mays or Eddie Mathews on the Yankees, hitting 500 Hrs and winning 12 pennants and 7 championships in 14 years, their card would be the million dollar card and Mantle would be much less.

It is the first major set for a company making baseball cards for 65+ years aligning with a 2nd year card of the star of the greatest dynasty in baseball history.

They care about analytics now, and have a great deal since Bill James began to publish his Baseball Abstract in the '80's. Come on in out of the 1950's--in addition to Mantle's superiority over Mays and Aaron during the time they were all active (which goes to quality, rather than quantity established through longevity), it certainly didn't hurt that Mantle's teams won the pennant in 12 of the first 14 years of his career, or that he averaged a home run every 12-point something times at bat FOR TEN, YES TEN, YEARS! And for educational purposes, Mantle's runs created are certainly not "hypothetical." James' arrived at a formula for predicting the number of runs a team would score by an extremely thorough mathematical consideration of both positive and negative events in relation to run scoring which was proven to be incredibly accurate. He then concluded that there was no reason the same formula could not be applied to individual players. wRC+ performs a similar function, while OBPS comes close to doing the same thing in a somewhat shorthand manner.

For your information, Eddie Mathews is ranked as the second greatest third baseman of all time (third by Bill James, behind Schimidt (#1) and Brett (#2)) and may well have become number one but for a significant shoulder injury he suffered in 1962. He had 370 HR's before he was 30, prior to that injury.

Study the game's history (reading about it should be enjoyable and not work), which becomes even richer as SABER and analytics advance with time, and learn something! You might even want to watch a little "MLB Now" on your cable network, a show which devotes quite a bit of time to baseball analytics. The latter will have an even greater, not lesser, impact over time.

Regards,

Larry

[rats60]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

They care about analytics now, and have a great deal since Bill James began to publish his Baseball Abstract in the '80's. Come on in out of the 1950's--in addition to Mantle's superiority over Mays and Aaron during the time they were all active (which goes to quality, rather than quantity established through longevity), it certainly didn't hurt that Mantle's teams won the pennant in 12 of the first 14 years of his career, or that he averaged a home run every 12-point something times at bat FOR TEN, YES TEN, YEARS! And for educational purposes, Mantle's runs created are certainly not "hypothetical." James' arrived at a formula for predicting the number of runs a team would score by an extremely thorough mathematical consideration of both positive and negative events in relation to run scoring which was proven to be incredibly accurate. He then concluded that there was no reason the same formula could not be applied to individual players. wRC+ performs a similar function, while OBPS comes close to doing the same thing in a somewhat shorthand manner.

For your information, Eddie Mathews is ranked as the second greatest third baseman of all time (third by Bill James, behind Schimidt (#1) and Brett (#2)) and may well have become number one but for a significant shoulder injury he suffered in 1962. He had 370 HR's before he was 30, prior to that injury.

Study the game's history (reading about it should be enjoyable and not work), which becomes even richer as SABER and analytics advance with time, and learn something! You might even want to watch a little "MLB Now" on your cable network, a show which devotes quite a bit of time to baseball analytics. The latter will have an even greater, not lesser, impact over time.

Regards,

Larry

Again, no one cared about any of that garbage you posted. They cared about the Yankees winning 7 championships and 12 pennants plus Mantle hitting a bunch of home runs, including 18 in the world series. That is why the 1952 Topps Mantle was the most important post war card long before Bill James and Baseball Abstract. I have a master's degree in statistics so you don't need to lecture me.

[clsports]

There are some very scarce cards being made today that are virtually unknown to most collectors. The problem being that there are waaaay too many cards being made recently that these cards get lost in the masses and are basically ignored. Someday, there may be a demand for one of these modern rarities and the collectors will take note and drive values up, but there are a lot of factors involved to make that happen if at all.

I like the Jordan rookie because that falls into the category of a completely ignored junk card that exploded in popularity years later. People realized how limited it was, but that card was unique in that had no competition and stands on its on merit. (Other than the Star rookies).

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by rats60

Again, no one cared about any of that garbage you posted. They cared about the Yankees winning 7 championships and 12 pennants plus Mantle hitting a bunch of home runs, including 18 in the world series. That is why the 1952 Topps Mantle was the most important post war card long before Bill James and Baseball Abstract. I have a master's degree in statistics so you don't need to lecture me.

Well, it appears that you are not at all inclined to use it. The SABR and analytical movements are growing in strength and provide mathematical evidence with an ever-growing degree of certainty as to the relative ranking of players over various eras. Employing derogatory terms like "garbage" to such truly invaluable evidentiary matters brings to mind the old adage: "play the fool and people will certainly treat you as one." More and more books are being written based on SABR findings and analytical assessments, and that trend will with virtual certainty continue. Baseball card collectors read these books too. Only an ostrich lives its life by perpetually sticking its head in the ground.

Best of luck in your collecting,

Larry

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by Leon

Not baseball but...

Jordan rookie

.

I agree that the '86 Fleer Jordan card is the modern '52T Mantle. There are tons of Fleer Jordan cards out there, but there is always a market for that card; PSA alone has graded over 16,000 '86 Fleer Jordan cards.

For modern collectors, the Jordan image on that card is every bit as iconic a post-war card as the '52 Topps Mantle.