Modern Era HOF Ballot: Who do you think should get in?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

Ya'll need to make up your mind, one side says WAR overrates defense and says Andruw Jones isn't a HOF'er then the other says it underrates defense and claims Simmons isn't.

According to the number, without you assigning arbitrary, biased values to it, both are HOF'ers.

I don't need to make up my mind. Andrew Jones absolutely is a Hofer to me. When you are a better defensive C.F. than Willie Mays and bring the offense he did, you should be in. It is kind of my point, his WAR is on the low side for HOF.

Same for Munson and Freehan. As elite defensive catchers, I have them above a below average catcher who brought slightly better offense but only 18% above average and 2-6% better than those great defensive catchers.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by rats60

I don't need to make up my mind. Andrew Jones absolutely is a Hofer to me. When you are a better defensive C.F. than Willie Mays and bring the offense he did, you should be in. It is kind of my point, his WAR is on the low side for HOF.

Same for Munson and Freehan. As elite defensive catchers, I have them above a below average catcher who brought slightly better offense but only 18% above average and 2-6% better than those great defensive catchers.

But as a catcher he was 26% above average. Thus even better than those "great defensive catchers". Also, note that Munson was a below league average hitter over the year and a half that ended his career. He was likely already on the downslope and that career OPS+ would have been well below 110 when all was said and done.

That said, I do believe Freehan is a HOFer and am willing to listen on Munson.

Tom C

[the 'stache]

First of all, 19 seasons????

He played 2 games in 1968.
He played 5 games in 1969.

You'd deducted those from his 21 years.

He played 82 games in 1970.
He played 76 games in 1986.
He played 73 games in 1987.
He played 78 games in 1988.

Those 6 "seasons" he played a combined 316 games. That's 1.95 seasons. He played in 2,456 games. That's slightly over 15 seasons of actual play time.

He's 10th all-time in JAWS for catcher, and all 9 ahead of him, except for Joe Mauer, are in Cooperstown. Average JAWS for a Hall catcher is 43.9. His is 42.4. His WAR is 50.1. Average WAR for the 15 Hall of Famer catchers is 53.4. Only four catchers in baseball history have a WAR of over 60: Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Pudge Rodriguez and Carlton Fisk.

Look at his 7 year peak. Average 7 year peak for a Hall of Fame catcher is 34.4. Simmons 7 year peak is 34.6.

From 1974 to 1980, his 162 game averages: .298 AVG, 81 runs scored, 174 hits, 35 doubles, 21 home runs, 101 RBI, .374 OBP/.477 SLG/.852 OPS. 134 OPS +. That's fantastic production from the catcher position. Yogi Berra, who is in the Hall, had the exact same 134 OPS + during his best seven year stretch from 1950 to 1956. Simmons had an .852 OPS, while Berra's was at .866.

WAR7 of great catchers (top seven seasons. Need not be seven years in a row)

Gary Carter, HOF 48.3 WAR
Johnny Bench, HOF 47.1 WAR HOF
Mike Piazza, HOF 43.1 WAR
Ivan Rodriguez, HOF 39.7 WAR
Joe Mauer, 38.5 WAR
Carlton Fisk, HOF 37.5 WAR
Yogi Berra, HOF 37.0 WAR
Mickey Cochrane, HOF 36.9 WAR
Buster Posey 36.2 WAR
Ted Simmons 34.6 WAR
Bill Dickey 34.2, HOF WAR
Roy Campanella, HOF 32.9 WAR

What about a guy like Buster Posey, who a lot of people are already discussing as a future Cooperstown enshrinee? (I think it's premature, obviously). Between 2010 and 2017, which is really seven seasons, as Posey only played 45 games in 2011, he had an OPS + of 136. Simmons OPS + at his 7 year peak was 134.
Thurman Munson? His peak 7 year OPS + was 121, from 1970 to 1976. His 7 year peak WAR? 37.0.

Simmons, again, essentially, played 15 seasons. His top 12 seasons, by WAR: 5.5, 5.5, 5.2, 5.2, 4.9, 4.5, 4.0, 3.6, 3.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.3. Those 12 seasons, the lion's share of his career, he averaged more than 4 WAR per season. 5 WAR is All Star level. 5 seasons, by WAR, he was All Star level. Another he was a half point from, and another a point from.

So, looking at his best seven seasons, compared to other great catchers throughout history, he was hardly a "compiler". But his lifetime stats, as a catcher, should warrant another look.

2,472 hits. Among catchers, only Ivan Rodriguez' 2,844 are higher.
483 doubles. Among catchers, only Rodriguez' 572 are higher.
1,389 RBI. Among catchers, only Yogi Berra's 1,430 are higher.

Calling him a strong Hall of Fame candidate is not at all a stretch.

Originally Posted by rats60

Yet you think Ted Simmons is a Hofer? It took him 19 seasons to accumulate 50 WAR. About 2 1/2 WAR per season is very average. Thurman Munson would be far more deserving, 46 WAR in 9 1/2 seasons, almost 5 per season. I would take Bill Freehan over Simmons and his 44 WAR in 14 seasons plus 5 gold gloves and 2 top 3 MVP finishes.

He is easily the worst candidate on that list. He never finished top 5 in MVP voting. At least those other guys all had short peeks, won MVP awards, top 5 finishes, gold gloves. If you are going to elect a marginal candidate, it should be someone who was great for a short period, not a compiler who wasn't very good at compiling.

I never heard anyone ever say Ted Simmons was a Hofer during his career. Tiant yes, Trammell yes, Morris yes, Murphy yes, Parker yes, Mattingly yes, Garvey yes, Munson yes, Whitaker yes, Tony Oliva yes, Dick Allen yes and now with 96 WAR Beltre yes.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

But as a catcher he was 26% above average. Thus even better than those "great defensive catchers". Also, note that Munson was a below league average hitter over the year and a half that ended his career. He was likely already on the downslope and that career OPS+ would have been well below 110 when all was said and done.

That said, I do believe Freehan is a HOFer and am willing to listen on Munson.

Tom C

From 1970-1980 when Simmons was 26% above average offensively, he accumulated 44.9 WAR. Over the same period Thurman Munson accumulated 45.6, despite playing 160 less games. Munson died in a plane crash on Aug 2, 1979 and missed the last 2 months of 1979 and all of 1980. Still with that advantage, he was worse than Munson. From 1980-1987, Simmons played 8 more seasons. He was below average offensively and below average defensively, but accumulated another 5 WAR. So, by sticking around as a bad player, he is now supposed to be a HoFer while Munson's career was too short to be inducted. That is what I mean by Simmons was a compiler.

[the 'stache]

Simmons had a peak on par with other second-tier Hall of Fame catchers, and had some of the best career stats of any of them. I'm not saying the guy is a slam dunk inductee, but I think he definitely deserved better than the 3.7% of the vote he received in 1994.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

First of all, 19 seasons????

He played 2 games in 1968.
He played 5 games in 1969.

You'd deducted those from his 21 years.

He played 82 games in 1970.
He played 76 games in 1986.
He played 73 games in 1987.
He played 78 games in 1988.

Those 6 "seasons" he played a combined 316 games. That's 1.95 seasons. He played in 2,456 games. That's slightly over 15 seasons of actual play time.

He's 10th all-time in JAWS for catcher, and all 9 ahead of him, except for Joe Mauer, are in Cooperstown. Average JAWS for a Hall catcher is 43.9. His is 42.4. His WAR is 50.1. Average WAR for the 15 Hall of Famer catchers is 53.4. Only four catchers in baseball history have a WAR of over 60: Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Pudge Rodriguez and Carlton Fisk.

Look at his 7 year peak. Average 7 year peak for a Hall of Fame catcher is 34.4. Simmons 7 year peak is 34.6.

From 1974 to 1980, his 162 game averages: .298 AVG, 81 runs scored, 174 hits, 35 doubles, 21 home runs, 101 RBI, .374 OBP/.477 SLG/.852 OPS. 134 OPS +. That's fantastic production from the catcher position. Yogi Berra, who is in the Hall, had the exact same 134 OPS + during his best seven year stretch from 1950 to 1956. Simmons had an .852 OPS, while Berra's was at .866.

WAR7 of great catchers (top seven seasons. Need not be seven years in a row)

Gary Carter, HOF 48.3 WAR
Johnny Bench, HOF 47.1 WAR HOF
Mike Piazza, HOF 43.1 WAR
Ivan Rodriguez, HOF 39.7 WAR
Joe Mauer, 38.5 WAR
Carlton Fisk, HOF 37.5 WAR
Yogi Berra, HOF 37.0 WAR
Mickey Cochrane, HOF 36.9 WAR
Buster Posey 36.2 WAR
Ted Simmons 34.6 WAR
Bill Dickey 34.2, HOF WAR
Roy Campanella, HOF 32.9 WAR

What about a guy like Buster Posey, who a lot of people are already discussing as a future Cooperstown enshrinee? (I think it's premature, obviously). Between 2010 and 2017, which is really seven seasons, as Posey only played 45 games in 2011, he had an OPS + of 136. Simmons OPS + at his 7 year peak was 134.
Thurman Munson? His peak 7 year OPS + was 121, from 1970 to 1976. His 7 year peak WAR? 37.0.

Simmons, again, essentially, played 15 seasons. His top 12 seasons, by WAR: 5.5, 5.5, 5.2, 5.2, 4.9, 4.5, 4.0, 3.6, 3.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.3. Those 12 seasons, the lion's share of his career, he averaged more than 4 WAR per season. 5 WAR is All Star level. 5 seasons, by WAR, he was All Star level. Another he was a half point from, and another a point from.

So, looking at his best seven seasons, compared to other great catchers throughout history, he was hardly a "compiler". But his lifetime stats, as a catcher, should warrant another look.

2,472 hits. Among catchers, only Ivan Rodriguez' 2,844 are higher.
483 doubles. Among catchers, only Rodriguez' 572 are higher.
1,389 RBI. Among catchers, only Yogi Berra's 1,430 are higher.

Calling him a strong Hall of Fame candidate is not at all a stretch.

You don't get to cherry pick stats. Simmons played 15 games in the minors in 1970. He was on the roster the rest of the time. Not being good enough to play still counts against him. He played 19 seasons. If he had played more those last 3 seasons, his WAR would be even worse, it works in your favor that he played fewer games.

Ted Simmons WAR is 192nd for position players. That is not a strong HOF candidate. WAR clearly undervalues catchers. Johnny Bench leads catchers with 75, right above Lou Whitaker with 74.9. Bench was a 1st ballot Hofer, Whitaker couldn't get 5% and fell off the ballot (and I will agree that Whitaker deserves serious consideration). Bench and Whitaker did not bring the same value to their team.

We have all the offensive numbers, but how do you value defense, in particular for a catcher? He handles more chances than any other player. He catches every pitch that isn't hit. He calls the pitches. He is the defensive quarterback. When you try to compare catchers with WAR, WAR7 and JAWS, that flaw is magnified. In the case of Simmons, he was a slightly below average catcher, so using numbers that don't punish him for his lack of defense and don't reward other catchers for their superior defense, in particular Munson and Freehan for HOF. Or in your comparison with other Hofers. It gives a false impression that he was better than he really was.

Listing counting stats compared to other catchers just confirms that Simmons was a compiler. He played for 8 seasons as a below average offensive players, as well as being below average defensively. During those 8 seasons, he compiled 5 WAR. If that isn't a compiler, then what is?

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by rats60

You don't get to cherry pick stats. Simmons played 15 games in the minors in 1970. He was on the roster the rest of the time. Not being good enough to play still counts against him. He played 19 seasons. If he had played more those last 3 seasons, his WAR would be even worse, it works in your favor that he played fewer games.

Ted Simmons WAR is 192nd for position players. That is not a strong HOF candidate. WAR clearly undervalues catchers. Johnny Bench leads catchers with 75, right above Lou Whitaker with 74.9. Bench was a 1st ballot Hofer, Whitaker couldn't get 5% and fell off the ballot (and I will agree that Whitaker deserves serious consideration). Bench and Whitaker did not bring the same value to their team.

We have all the offensive numbers, but how do you value defense, in particular for a catcher? He handles more chances than any other player. He catches every pitch that isn't hit. He calls the pitches. He is the defensive quarterback. When you try to compare catchers with WAR, WAR7 and JAWS, that flaw is magnified. In the case of Simmons, he was a slightly below average catcher, so using numbers that don't punish him for his lack of defense and don't reward other catchers for their superior defense, in particular Munson and Freehan for HOF. Or in your comparison with other Hofers. It gives a false impression that he was better than he really was.

Listing counting stats compared to other catchers just confirms that Simmons was a compiler. He played for 8 seasons as a below average offensive players, as well as being below average defensively. During those 8 seasons, he compiled 5 WAR. If that isn't a compiler, then what is?

I'm sorry but that's a bit of a stretch.

There were six years where Simmons was "below average"...as in OPS+ below 100. Those seasons were:

1970 OPS+ 74 (age 20)
1981 OPS+ 87 (first year in AL)
1984 OPS+ 61 (terrible year)
1986 OPS+ 88 (36 year old former catcher with 144 plate appearances)
1987 OPS+ 93 (37 year old former catcher with 200 plate appearances)
1988 OPS+ 71 (38 year old former catcher with 123 plate appearances)

Munson likely would have surpassed Simmons in career WAR had he lived. While he was clearly on the downslope of his career, he likely would have had another 10 WAR over the rest of his career, at a minimum. Unless you give credit for years that he never got to play, however, Simmons is the better HOF candidate.

You also want to paint Simmons as a compiler, while bemoaning the fact that Munson never got the opportunity to compile. That seems a bit odd to me.

Gary Carter's final six seasons were pretty bad. Was he a compiler as well? How about Pudge Rodriguez? His final seven seasons were abysmal. Carlton Fisk's last three years were bad. It isn't just a Ted Simmons thing.

Tom C

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I'm sorry but that's a bit of a stretch.

There were six years where Simmons was "below average"...as in OPS+ below 100. Those seasons were:

1970 OPS+ 74 (age 20)
1981 OPS+ 87 (first year in AL)
1984 OPS+ 61 (terrible year)
1986 OPS+ 88 (36 year old former catcher with 144 plate appearances)
1987 OPS+ 93 (37 year old former catcher with 200 plate appearances)
1988 OPS+ 71 (38 year old former catcher with 123 plate appearances)

Munson likely would have surpassed Simmons in career WAR had he lived. While he was clearly on the downslope of his career, he likely would have had another 10 WAR over the rest of his career, at a minimum. Unless you give credit for years that he never got to play, however, Simmons is the better HOF candidate.

You also want to paint Simmons as a compiler, while bemoaning the fact that Munson never got the opportunity to compile. That seems a bit odd to me.

Gary Carter's final six seasons were pretty bad. Was he a compiler as well? How about Pudge Rodriguez? His final seven seasons were abysmal. Carlton Fisk's last three years were bad. It isn't just a Ted Simmons thing.

Tom C

just ignore him, he can't stand to admit that Simmons was twice the player that Garvey was and will pitch a completely irrational toddler fit at the mere mention of such

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

just ignore him, he can't stand to admit that Simmons was twice the player that Garvey was and will pitch a completely irrational toddler fit at the mere mention of such

Nah.

I disagree with him on a few things but he also makes some good and valid points. The back and forth is fun for me and has remained respectful. No problem here.

Tom C

[Moyni]

I did a video on this topic. Thought I would share it with my friends at Net54.

https://youtu.be/sIWk-TuyVlI

[dgo71]

Pretty happy for Trammell. I think Morris however is one of the worst choices in years.

[earlywynnfan]

Still no Stan Hack, eh?

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

I think a lot of these guys don't get in because they didn't have the Baseball equivalent of a 'Heisman' moment...something that sticks in your memory forever...like Flutie's Hale Mary.

Of course the have to have the good stats over a prolonged period of time...as Baseball is 'a marathon, not a sprint', but the biggest moments are what is recalled decades later.

Kirk Gibson had THE MOMENT but not the lengthy career...but, IMO, that's exactly the kind of truly Legendary Moment I'm referring to.

Grinders do get in, but they are Eddie Murrays, not Harold Baines.

Jack Morris HAD a MOMENT as described above, Ted Simmons, left out by a single vote, did not.
.