Who will be selected to the MLB HOF next Tuesday

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

right he is a great hitter but lets not kid ourselves, .360 is a shiny number...if its .320..its a great number but not shiny and HOF likes shiny numbers and the .360 is because of coors.

If Walker was great in the postseason (Andy Pettite) that would be something to consider but still hasnt worked for Petite.

however hitting .320 for 12 years is better than 4 shiny .360's or whatever, go and get 3000 hits (shiny number) and end the discussion..

Jake hits are meaningless, Jeter has more than everyone that has ever played but 5 people. There are still people that would not vote for him.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by bnorth

My post is about if Jeter is a HOFer or not. You say also say he is.

Larry Walker has not been voted in for very good reasons and should not get voted in this year. Unless they changed the name to Hall of Above Average.

I know what your post said. I was demonstrating how absurd your thinking is. You say Derek Jeter is a slam dunk Hall of Famer, and anybody not voting for him is a moron, right? Yet Larry Walker is "above average", and not worthy of induction. More on how ridiculous that is below.

Originally Posted by bnorth

A lot of players did some great things a few times. That does not make them a HOFer. Bill Madlock won 4 batting titles does that make him a HOFer?

Larry had 2160 hits, 383 home runs, 1311, RBIs and a .313 batting average. If those are HOF #s there should be a LOT more people in the HOF than there is now.

Well, then, I guess Joe DiMaggio shouldn't be in.

.325 AVG, 2,214 hits, 361 HR, 1,537 RBI.

Might as well boot Hank Greenberg out.

.313 AVG, 1,628 hits, 331 HR, 1,274 RBI.

Hasta la vista, Johnny Mize

.312 AVG, 2,011 hits, 359 HR, 1,337 RBI.

Your thinking is so beyond old, it's comical. Hits, home runs? Really? You do know it's the year 2020, and we have far better methodology to evaluate a player's greatness than counting stats, right?

What exactly did Derek Jeter do that was "great"????

It wasn't hit for power. 260 home runs in 12,602 PAs is pretty weak for the era he played in, even for a shortstop. Nomar Garciaparra was a shortstop, in the same era, and had far greater power.

Jeter 260 HR in 12,602 PA. A homer once every 48.7 PAs.
Garciaparra 229 HR in 6,116 PA. A homer once every 26.7 PA.

Do I need to bring Alex Rodriguez's power numbers into the conversation? No?

Jeter was an average power hitter as far as home runs go. At best, and that's being kind. 15 home runs per 162 games, when he averages 743 PAs per season, is actually pretty terrible. But surely he made up for it with other extra base hits, right? Doubles and triples must be where he added power to his game. After all, he had that speed.

Oh wait, nope. 544 doubles, 66 triples.

There are 26 players with over 3,000 hits since 1919. Jeter's 8th in plate appearances, but 17th in doubles, and 16th in triples. He's 20th of those 26 players in extra base hits, and the guys behind him all have at least 1,400 fewer plate appearances.


Modern era 3,000 hit club members, sorted by singles.

The only modern hitter with over 3,000 hits that had more singles than Jeter's 2,595 is Peter Rose. Rose had 3,288 more plate appearances. So, Jeter had no power. Zero. The great "no brainer first ballot Hall of Famer" was a dink hitter.

What about his walk rate? Surely, if Jeter wasn't loading up on the extra base hits, he was walking, right?

Ah, no.


Modern era 3,000 hit club members sorted by walk rate.

Jeter is 20th of the 26 Modern era 3,000 hit club members in walk rate.

He didn't hit for power, not home runs, or extra base hits.
He didn't walk.

Where's the incontrovertible evidence of Jeter's "greatness". Anybody that dares consider not voting the great Jeter in immediately is a moron.

The numbers would seem to suggest that he's a bit over hyped.

He played 20 seasons. 18 of those would be considered full years; in all he appeared in at least 119 games. That's about 75%.

He led the American League in hits twice, and runs once. Well, considering where he batted in the lineup, and the offense he was a part of, I don't know if either of those are at all impressive. In 1999, he led the AL with 219 hits. He also led the AL with 739 PAs. Of those 739 PAs, 677 were from the #2 spot in the order. He hit great that year-a .349 AVG, and had 70 extra base hits, which for Jeter is like having 100. He also had 91 walks, which is by far his career high (by 14). Jeter's OPS+ was 153, with an OPS of .989. He'd never even approach that OPS again. Forget 2006, when he was MVP runner up. 1999 was his best season, with an 8.0 WAR. That was an MVP-type season. That, and his 1998 season, with a 7.5 WAR, are the only two MVP-type seasons Jeter ever had. He only had one other season with even a 6.0 WAR--6.6 in 2009.

In 2012, he led the AL with 216 hits. He had 740 PAs, walking a paltry 45 times. He hit .316 that year, which is pretty good. But of those 216 hits, only 47 were extra base hits. 32 doubles, 15 home runs.

He never led his league in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS. Only had one season of 40 or more doubles. Three seasons with even 20 home runs.

Jeter was a 115 career hitter by OPS. 15% above average. He was a poor fielder. A 115 OPS + doesn't get you into the Hall of Fame. And hitting was his calling card.

His career highs for OPS+

1999 153
2006 132
2000 128
1998 127
2003, 2005, 2009 125

His last seven seasons, 2008-2014, representing 912 games and 4,177 plate appearances, Derek Jeter was a league average hitter with a 101 OPS+.

He got 1,109 of his hits in those seven seasons. He was never good defensively, and was as middle of the road as you can get as a hitter.

Year, number of games played, OPS+

2008, 150, 102 OPS+
2009, 153, 125 OPS+
2010, 157, 90 OPS+
2011, 131, 100 OPS+
2012, 159, 114 OPS+
2013, 17, 52 OPS+
2014, 145, 76 OPS+

Derek Jeter, save for 2009, when he was 25% above league average, and 14% above league average in 2012, was a league average, or below league average hitter.

His last seven seasons, he was worth a combined 14.4 WAR across 912 games. That's 5.63 162 game seasons. He was worth, on average, 2.55 WAR per 162 games played. That's barely Major League starter-worthy.

Jeter hung on, and the Yankees let him, when he was way past his prime, so he could get his 3,000 hits. Jeter for roughly the last 1,000 games of his career was a stat padder.

The only reason he's in is because he got 3,000 hits, and he's "Derek Jeter". Don't give me this shit about how Derek Jeter is a no brainer Hall of Famer. He had two great seasons in 18.

A 5.0+ WAR is considered All Star level. Jeter, in 18 years, only had 6 that were truly All Star level (per BBR):

1999 8.0
1998 7.5
2009 6.6
2006 5.6
2001 5.2
1997 5.0

That's it.

2000 4.6 fringe All Star-level
2004 4.2

Ten full seasons Derek Jeter came in below a 4.0 WAR

This is a no-brainer Hall of Famer? He's beyond even question?

WAR isn't a perfect metric, but for a discussion of this kind, to compare Hall of Famer performance against other Hall of Famers, it's a great tool.

I looked at all Hall of Fame position players starting in 1945. Jeter isn't playing in 2020, so this is, essentially, a snapshot of all Hall of Fame position players from the past 75 years. For a few of these guys that started their careers prior to 1945 (Ted Williams, Enos Slaughter, etc), I used their entire career WAR and games played. Other Hall of Famers, like Joe DiMaggio, did play after 1945, but the majority of their careers came before the end of World War II.

This gives us 73 Hall of Famers. I created an average, games played per WAR. Expressed differently, how many games did it take that player to be worth one win above a replacement-level player?



I then did the same calculation for Jeter, and added him to the list.

This "no brainer, you'd have to be "a moron not to vote for him" was 52nd out of 74 Hall of Famers on this list.

Then, just for shits and giggles, I looked at where Larry Walker, you know, the guy that belongs in the "Hall of Above Average", would fit on this list.

1,988 games played
72.7 career WAR
Rate: 27.3452544

He would be 14th on this list of 74 players. Directly ahead of Rickey Henderson, Johnny Bench, Chipper Jones.

The only guys that were worth 1 win over replacement at a faster rate on this list: Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Jackie Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Eddie Mathews, Roberto Clemente, Frank Robinson, Joe Morgan, Wade Boggs and Jeff Bagwell.

But yeah. Derek Jeter is a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer, and Larry Walker's not even worthy of being in Cooperstown.

From 1994 to 2004, 11 seasons, Larry Walker had a 1.036 OPS, hitting .331 with a slash line of .422 OBP/.614 SLG/1.036.

For those 11 years, his OPS+ was 148.

Derek Jeter's best year ever by OPS + was 153. His second best was 132.

Larry Walker, for 11 years, was nearly the offensive force that Derek Jeter was for his best year.

Walker's career 141 OPS+ is better than Vladimir Guerrero's. Better than Alex Rodriguez's. Better than Duke Snider's. Better than Reggie Jackson's. Better than Chuck Klein's. Better than Ken Griffey Jr's. Better than Al Kaline's.

And that "Hall of Above average" comment? You're either being purposely disingenuous, you're hopelessly obtuse, or, you're just plain ignorant as to baseball history. Larry Walker is a little better than "above average".

In the history of Major League Baseball, there have been 12 men to finish their careers with a lifetime .310 AVG, 350 home runs and 1,000 RBI.



Larry Walker is one of those men.

Larry Walker was a better player than Derek Jeter, in every single facet of the game. Jeter rode his .310 lifetime average, and 11,195 career at bats, to 3,000 hits and Cooperstown, even when, for the last seven years of his career, he was league average as a hitter and dreadful as a defensive shortstop. Does a "great teammate" make his team carry him for seven seasons?

And Walker was a lifetime .313 hitter. The one thing that Jeter did truly well--hit the ball safely--Larry Walker did better!

Walker walked 913 times in 8,030 career PAs. An 11.37% rate
Jeter walked 1,082 times in 12,602 career PA. An 8.6% rate.

Jeter had 870 career extra base hits in 11,195 at bats.
Walker had 916 career extra base hits in 6,907 at bats.

Fielding?
Jeter 5 Gold Gloves
Walker 7 Gold Gloves

There is no argument to be made that Derek Jeter was a better player than Larry Walker. None. Jeter played a lot longer, so he got 3,000 hits when any other team would have dumped him after a God awful 2010 where he was worth 1.7 WAR. But Jeter had 2,926 hits, and everybody loved "Jetah".

Unfortunately for Walker, he didn't get to wear the pinstripes, and play on a loaded Yankees team. Unlike Jeter, Walker had the good sense to retire before he embarrassed himself.

Walker's last two seasons in the Majors:

2004 (age 37): 82 games, .298 AVG, 17 HR, 47 RBI .424 OBP/.589 SLG/1.013 OPS 154 OPS+
2005 (age 38): 100 games, .289 AVG, 15 HR, 52 RBI, .384 OBP/.502 SLG/.886 OPS 130 OPS+

In his second-to-last season, at age 38, Walker had a 154 OPS+. That's better than the best season Derek Jeter had in his 20 year career.

Jeter 1999-.989 OPS, 153 OPS+
Walker 2004-1.013 OPS, 154+

Your narrative is untenable. If Derek "no power, no walk, no glove" Jeter is a Hall of Famer, than Walker, who bests him in every conceivable metric statisticians have to assess a player's performance, deserves to be in as well, and anybody who doesn't see it is a moron.

[packs]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

"Everyone else" didn't hit .360 because that's still awful tough to do, regardless of when or where. No one is denying that he was a great hitter. The point is that the numbers are still highly exaggerated because all the great Rockies hitters' home/road splits look like that.

And I know he was a really good outfielder too. His defensive WAR numbers don't show his skills (compared to Arenado), but I should probably give him more of the benefit of the doubt for that.

Walker is, at minimum, very close to HOF standards. but it seems unlikely that his numbers would've gotten him in had he not played for the Rockies. It's a close call.

Just for reference, here are Walker's home / away splits from his MVP season. Wouldn't this have been an MVP season for any player?


Home: 384 average, 20 homers, 68 rbis, 460 OBP, 1.169 OPS
Away: 346 average, 29 homers, 62 rbis, 443 OBP, 1.176 OPS

He also put up a 30/30 season that year. As far as I know Coors Field has never equated to an advantage in stolen bases.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by packs

Not sure. I'm not doubting that Coors Field isn't prone to inflated numbers, but suggesting that just anyone could have done what Walker did by virtue of playing there isn't true. He was exceptional and much better than anyone else on the team.

Almost his entire prime was spent in Colorado, but look what he did with it. An MVP, three batting titles, 5 out of 7 of his gold gloves were won there. He isn't just some guy hacking away in Colorado. The team was full of people like that; Dante Bichette, Andres Gallaraga, Vinny Castillo. Larry Walker was heads and shoulders above them and that's why he's the only one with a HOF case.

Also, just to illustrate how much better Walker was than any other homer happy Rockies player, in the three years Walker hit 360 or better, he was the ONLY player on Colorado to put up an OPS over 1.000.

Derek Jeter career OPS on the road: .801.
Larry Walker career OPS on the road: .865.

Doesn't matter where Walker was, home or away, he was a better offensive performer than Derek Jeter, by a wide margin. And he was better defensively.

[packs]

I really do like the Fenway Park comparison. Just for fun, I took a look at Jim Rice's numbers. He played his entire career at Fenway and was supposedly one of the most feared hitters of his era:

Career Numbers:
Home: 320 average, 208 homers, 803 rbis, 374 OBP, 920 OPS
Away: 277 average, 174 homers, 648 rbis, 330 OBP, 789 OPS

But no one really ever says "he was a Boston player" about anyone.

[the 'stache]

Walker was playing at an All Star, near-MVP level before he ever got to Colorado. Funny how people fail to see that, as it doesn't fit with the whole "Coors made Walker" line of thought.

In 1992, Walker finished 5th in the MVP while an Expo (something Jeter did 3 times in 20 years), hitting .301 with 23 HR and 93 RBI, slashing .353 OBP/.506 SLG/.859 OPS. That was good for a 141 OPS+ in a down year for hitting. He won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger.

In 1994, his last year in Montreal, the strike shortened season where the Expos were 74-40, and robbed of a chance to play in the World Series, Walker was magnificent. .322 AVG, 44 doubles, 19 HR, 86 RBI, .394 OBP/.587 SLG/.981 SLG, 151 OPS+. Walker was worth 4.7 bWAR in '94. If Montreal had played in all 162 games, at that rate, Walker's WAR would have been 6.7. A 7.0 WAR is considered near-MVP caliber.

Walker's best WAR by season, with that adjustment:

1997 9.8 MVP
2001 7.8 24th in the MVP (LOL at that)
1994 6.7
2002 6.1
1998 5.7
1992 5.4
1999 5.1

Look at his Hall of Fame Statistics:



Black Ink, which awards points for leading the league in offensive categories, is a bit low. Ok. I would point out that Derek Jeter's Black Ink score is 10.

Gray Ink counts top ten appearances. His score would be a little lower as he didn't play nearly as long as many Hall of Famers.

Hall of Fame Monitor and Batting Standards he is way over the Hall of Fame threshold.

And JAWS? There are 26 Hall of Fame right fielders. Walker ranks tenth in JAWS. He's behind Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Reggie Jackson and Harry Heilmann.

That's some select company.

And look at his similarity scores.



Duke Snider, Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize, Vladimir Guerrero and Chuck Klein. Are you kidding me?

How can Walker not be a Hall of Famer?

[bnorth]

OK Bill you convinced me Larry Walker should be in the tourist trap built for the sole purpose to attract visitors to a town. Now if you could just convince the voters that put people into that tourist attraction.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by packs

Just for reference, here are Walker's home / away splits from his MVP season. Wouldn't this have been an MVP season for any player?


Home: 384 average, 20 homers, 68 rbis, 460 OBP, 1.169 OPS
Away: 346 average, 29 homers, 62 rbis, 443 OBP, 1.176 OPS

He also put up a 30/30 season that year. As far as I know Coors Field has never equated to an advantage in stolen bases.

You're right. I've looked at Walker's home-road splits for his time in Colorado. There was no pattern. None. You could have spit out a spreadsheet, stuck it in HAL 9000's input slot, and he would have blown his mainframe trying to predict future splits. It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen. Well, almost.

Further examination isn't necessary to blow apart this whole notion that "Walker was made by Coors". During his MVP season, he was better on the road. Sure, his home average is better (.384 vs .346--he's still playing out of his mind both at Coors, and anywhere else). If you look at his OBP as expressed as everything but his AVG, he's more disciplined on the road.

Home .460 OBP - .384 AVG = 0.76 of OBP from walks, HBP. 36 BB in 350 PA = 10.3% walk rate.
Away .443 OBP - .346 AVG = 0.97 of OBP from walks, HBP. 42 BB in 314 PA = 13.4% walk rate.

And look at the power variance.

30 2B/4 3B/20 HR at home. .709 SLG
16 2B/0 3B/29 HR on the road. .733 SLG

His isolated power metric was through the roof anywhere he hit.

In 1995, his OPS was 1.131 at Coors, .845 on the road.
In 1996, his OPS was 1.248 at Coors, .523 on the road in only 83 games.
In 1997, his OPS was 1.169 at Coors, 1.176 on the road.
In 1998, his OPS was 1.241 at Coors, .892 on the road.
In 1999, his OPS was 1.410 at Coors, .894 on the road.
In 2000, his OPS was 1.062 at Coors, .770 on the road in only 87 games.

At this point, 1997 looks like an outlier on the road. He still hits well away from Coors (.850 to just under .900 is still All Star caliber). Then 2001 comes.

In 2001, his OPS was 1.256 at Coors, .965 on the road. 20 HR at home, 18 on the road.
In 2002, his OPS was 1.124 at Coors, .917 on the road.

Very few players are going to OPS over 1.000 on the road. There are those rare guys who put up nearly identical numbers everywhere:

Willie Mays
Home: 1,490 games, 335 HR, .302 AVG, .387/.567/.953
Away: 1,502 games, 325 HR, .301 AVG, .382/.549/.931

That's sick.

Stan Musial
Home: 1,524 games, 1,815 hits, 252 HR, .336 AVG, .427/.582/1.009
Away: 1,502 games, 1,185 hits, 223 HR, .326 AVG, .407/.537/.944

That's a 65 point variance.

Mickey Mantle
Home: 1,213 games, 266 HR, .305 AVG, .428/.569/.997
Away: 1,188 games, 270 HR, .291 AVG, .413/.545/.958


I think the variance that is seen with a good number of today's hitters is due to the drastic changes in environment from one park to another. Think about a National League hitter until recently, that might have, in two weeks time, played in Coors Field, Candlestick, Chavez Ravine, Bank One Ballpark, and Miller Park.

A hitter might deal with thin air, wind blowing in from San Francisco's bay, artificial turf, natural grass, or a retractable roof in Phoenix or Milwaukee. I would think that's a lot of adjusting. It's only natural a hitter would be more comfortable in their home park. But Walker has demonstrated he can hit for power anywhere. And his fielding will play anywhere.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by packs

Just for reference, here are Walker's home / away splits from his MVP season. Wouldn't this have been an MVP season for any player?


Home: 384 average, 20 homers, 68 rbis, 460 OBP, 1.169 OPS
Away: 346 average, 29 homers, 62 rbis, 443 OBP, 1.176 OPS

He also put up a 30/30 season that year. As far as I know Coors Field has never equated to an advantage in stolen bases.

You're right. I've looked at Walker's home-road splits for his time in Colorado. There was no pattern. None. You could have spit out a spreadsheet, stuck it in HAL 9000's input slot, and he would have blown his mainframe trying to predict future splits. It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen. Well, almost.

Further examination isn't necessary to blow apart this whole notion that "Walker was made by Coors". During his MVP season, he was better on the road. Sure, his home average is better (.384 vs .346--he's still playing out of his mind both at Coors, and anywhere else). If you look at his OBP as expressed as everything but his AVG, he's more disciplined on the road.

Home .460 OBP - .384 AVG = 0.76 of OBP from walks, HBP. 36 BB in 350 PA = 10.3% walk rate.
Away .443 OBP - .346 AVG = 0.97 of OBP from walks, HBP. 42 BB in 314 PA = 13.4% walk rate.

And look at the power variance.

30 2B/4 3B/20 HR at home. .709 SLG
16 2B/0 3B/29 HR on the road. .733 SLG

His isolated power metric was through the roof anywhere he hit.

In 1995, his OPS was 1.131 at Coors, .845 on the road.
In 1996, his OPS was 1.248 at Coors, .523 on the road in only 83 games.
In 1997, his OPS was 1.169 at Coors, 1.176 on the road.
In 1998, his OPS was 1.241 at Coors, .892 on the road.
In 1999, his OPS was 1.410 at Coors, .894 on the road.
In 2000, his OPS was 1.062 at Coors, .770 on the road in only 87 games.

At this point, 1997 looks like an outlier on the road. He still hits well away from Coors (.850 to just under .900 is still All Star caliber). Then 2001 comes.

In 2001, his OPS was 1.256 at Coors, .965 on the road. 20 HR at home, 18 on the road.
In 2002, his OPS was 1.124 at Coors, .917 on the road.

Very few players are going to OPS over 1.000 on the road. There are those rare guys who put up nearly identical numbers everywhere:

Willie Mays
Home: 1,490 games, 335 HR, .302 AVG, .387/.567/.953
Away: 1,502 games, 325 HR, .301 AVG, .382/.549/.931

That's sick.

Stan Musial
Home: 1,524 games, 1,815 hits, 252 HR, .336 AVG, .427/.582/1.009
Away: 1,502 games, 1,185 hits, 223 HR, .326 AVG, .407/.537/.944

That's a 65 point variance.

Mickey Mantle
Home: 1,213 games, 266 HR, .305 AVG, .428/.569/.997
Away: 1,188 games, 270 HR, .291 AVG, .413/.545/.958


I think the variance that is seen with a good number of today's hitters is due to the drastic changes in environment from one park to another. Think about a National League hitter until recently, that might have, in two weeks time, played in Coors Field, Candlestick, Chavez Ravine, Bank One Ballpark, and Miller Park.

A hitter might deal with thin air, wind blowing in from San Francisco's bay, artificial turf, natural grass, or a retractable roof in Phoenix or Milwaukee. I would think that's a lot of adjusting. It's only natural a hitter would be more comfortable in their home park. But Walker has demonstrated he can hit for power anywhere. And his fielding will play anywhere.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by bnorth

OK Bill you convinced me Larry Walker should be in the tourist trap built for the sole purpose to attract visitors to a town. Now if you could just convince the voters that put people into that tourist attraction.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the final vote. Honestly, I'm surprised Walker has come to the final ballot. I might be giving the voters too much credit, though.

But what do I know? I'm still miffed that Dick Allen isn't in the Hall. He doesn't have the counting stats of a guy that played for two decades. And I know he was frigid with the media, and that creates backlash. And he wasn't a terribly good fielder. But he could absolutely mash.

When you've had a career of 1,759 games, and your career OPS+ is the same as Willie Mays and Frank Thomas, one point better than Hank Aaron, Joe DiMaggio and Mel Ott, and two points better than Manny Ramirez (with the steroids!) and Frank Robinson--how the heck are you kept out?

He's got the 19th highest OPS+ in baseball history.

[1952boyntoncollector]

well he is in now..76 percent of vote..needed 75..

so he got in.....real good player....with harold baines there...makes sense for what their voters would do i guess... i wouldnt want baines in there..but i agree Walker is better than baines HOF wise for me

now its curt schlling's turn..

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Jake hits are meaningless, Jeter has more than everyone that has ever played but 5 people. There are still people that would not vote for him.

apparently there was one person that didnt vote for him

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

well he is in now..76 percent of vote..needed 75..

so he got in.....real good player....with harold baines there...makes sense for what their voters would do i guess... i wouldnt want baines in there..but i agree Walker is better than baines HOF wise for me

now its curt schlling's turn..

Oh god....don't even get us started on Harold Baines.

There should be shame in the fame for something that lame.

[packs]

Congrats to Larry!

I still don’t think Schilling gets in. Next year is the year if he’s going to do it. Pretty weak field. But don’t see him overcoming his personality.

[howard38]

/

[seanofjapan]

I'm really glad to see Larry Walker got in, it was well deserved (for reasons the stache laid out above).

I think some other guy got in too, but who cares? Walker Walker Walker!!!

[dgo71]

Originally Posted by packs

I still don’t think Schilling gets in. Next year is the year if he’s going to do it. Pretty weak field. But don’t see him overcoming his personality.

He gained 9.1% of the vote this year and needs only 5% of the vote next year. With no slam dunk candidates entering the ballot in 2021 you can pencil Schilling in now as a sure-fire Hall of Famer. I definitely see the case against him but barring a Twitter implosion over the next 12 months I don't see a scenario that he doesn't get in.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

well he is in now..76 percent of vote..needed 75..

so he got in.....real good player....with harold baines there...makes sense for what their voters would do i guess... i wouldnt want baines in there..but i agree Walker is better than baines HOF wise for me

now its curt schlling's turn..

Harold Baines doesn't even belong in the same breath as Larry Walker. Completely inappropriate comparison.

Baines 38.7 bWAR in 2,830 games. He accrued 1 WAR every 73.82 games.
Walker 72.7 bWAR in 1,988 games. He accrued 1 WAR every 27.34 games.

Baines doesn't deserve in the Hall of Fame. Walker clearly does.

[Jim65]

Todd Helton fans are doing cartwheels today.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by packs

I really do like the Fenway Park comparison. Just for fun, I took a look at Jim Rice's numbers. He played his entire career at Fenway and was supposedly one of the most feared hitters of his era:

Career Numbers:
Home: 320 average, 208 homers, 803 rbis, 374 OBP, 920 OPS
Away: 277 average, 174 homers, 648 rbis, 330 OBP, 789 OPS

But no one really ever says "he was a Boston player" about anyone.

And it doesn't seem like the hallowed OPS+ number actually accounts for it enough either.

Using the career numbers of Boggs and Gwynn again:

Boggs OPS: .934 home .781 road .858 total

Gwynn OPS: .859 home .835 road .847 total

Yet both have the same career OPS+ per season.

[packs]

Originally Posted by dgo71

He gained 9.1% of the vote this year and needs only 5% of the vote next year. With no slam dunk candidates entering the ballot in 2021 you can pencil Schilling in now as a sure-fire Hall of Famer. I definitely see the case against him but barring a Twitter implosion over the next 12 months I don't see a scenario that he doesn't get in.

Not quite though. He needs 5% more next year and the same exact showing for that 5% to matter. I think 12 months is a lot of rope for a guy like him too.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by mr2686

I heard that also, but always thought (but it has never been confirmed) that it might be Reggie Jackson. I base that only on his last year with Oakland and playing with the Roid Boys, as well as it looked to me like he was a bit bigger. Like I said, pure speculation.

I'm a lot bigger than I was in my 20's and 30's too, and it has nothing to do with PEDs. Unless they've categorized cheeseburgers and donuts as PEDs...

[Runscott]

I'm so glad Walker got in. I think he deserved it for the reasons others have cited, but on top of that he's going to be one of the Hall's best living members. Just a really great guy...even though he's Canadian!

I'm happy about Jeter purely for selfish collector reasons. I have the home plate that he scored his first run on in 2014, along with a ball from the game that he signed.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Harold Baines doesn't even belong in the same breath as Larry Walker. Completely inappropriate comparison.

Baines 38.7 bWAR in 2,830 games. He accrued 1 WAR every 73.82 games.
Walker 72.7 bWAR in 1,988 games. He accrued 1 WAR every 27.34 games.

Baines doesn't deserve in the Hall of Fame. Walker clearly does.

i said Baines is not as good as Walker so we are in agreement on that

However, Walker is a HOF and so is Baines.......

there should be a separate wing for first ballot HOFs..perhaps there is? I never been there

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Just a really great guy...even though he's Canadian!

Ok, now that made me laugh!!!

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Ok, now that made me laugh!!!

Bill- I am continually in awe of the depth of your research!!

Thank goodness you never listened to anyone calling you a stats nerd, or saying 'get a life'.

Your work is so very valuable to what makes this site so appealing to me.


Thanks Bill!


.