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#1
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I don't get the insane Julio Rodriguez Hype
That was a very nice season by a 22 year old, don't get me wrong. But it wasn't other-worldly. .853 OPS and we're all losing our minds? Really?
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#2
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How did you feel about Griffey after his first season? Is it always hype?
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#3
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He had a 147 OPS+ which was Top 10 in all of MLB, as a 22 year old rookie, that pretty special.
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#4
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Definitely over-hyped, as most young players are these days.
Potential though to be a very good player. He kind of choked in the Playoffs last year, but again he is young, so we'll see. Griffey Jr was only 19 his first season, Rodriquez was 22. 3 year difference is pretty big. No way I compare him to Jr at this point. But again he could/should be a very good player. Just over-hyped at the moment. |
#5
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He’s a generational talent playing centerfield for Seattle. Why not talk about him in relation to Griffey?
Last edited by packs; 02-26-2023 at 04:16 PM. |
#6
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Don't make me hop in the wayback machine and bring up our disagreement of the value of Corey Dickerson
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#7
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Who wasn’t hyped in your opinion? Meaning who did you hear about see play and think it was the real thing? If not Julio.
Griffey was a god before he was a MLB superstar too. There’s a reason he was the first card in 89 UD. He hit 264 that year. People had a feeling they knew what they were looking at though. Last edited by packs; 02-26-2023 at 04:28 PM. |
#8
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I hope Rodriquez succeeds but his season was good but agreed over hyped
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#9
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Every year lately someone gets overhyped because flippers are looking for the next Mike Trout hobby darling. Luis robert, Jared Kelenic, Wander Franco etc. and every year someone overpays and gets left holding the bag when everyone moves onto the next prospect
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#10
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He had a great rookie year and certainly looks like a great player, but this is baseball, who the hell knows what the future holds. Some like him have gone on to be great players, many have not.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 02-26-2023 at 05:07 PM. |
#11
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Quote:
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#12
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Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 02-26-2023 at 05:25 PM. |
#13
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As do guys who end up with a nice career but not a HOF one. Strawberry, Gooden, Eric Davis, Canseco, Mattingly, I could go on.
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#14
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the strawberry topps traded rookie was a biiiig deal, there is the new artificial scarcity now with the modern that was not present during the old days of boggs and gwynn days..
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#15
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The 86 Donruss Canseco was the biggest thing on earth for a while.
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#16
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Yeah but I was asking who you think wasn’t hyped. What I’m getting at is whether or not it’s possible to be the next big thing without being criticized over expectations.
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#17
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Lebron James certainly was worth all the hype...however what is the ratio and remember a lot of these hyped cards will end up being worth 99% less 5 years later than what they sell for in the first year Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 02-26-2023 at 06:20 PM. |
#18
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It is an oddity of modern collecting that if Rodriguez has a really good next 10 years, appears on the Hall of Fame path, etc....his rookie cards will likely be LESS expensive than they are right now.
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#19
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Rice was at only 120. One year of good numbers may mean something or may not. |
#20
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Pete Alonso was 148. Dick Allen 162. Jose Abreu 173.
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#21
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exactly so many other factors...what city he plays in how many championships any huge individual feats like 60 home runs etc Dude can hit .320 with 25 homer a year and 20 steals on average for 10 years and cards tank
Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 02-27-2023 at 10:42 AM. |
#22
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I think the issue is that you guys are trying to fit the pre-war model of collecting into the modern model and it's never going to be the same game.
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#23
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I think J-Rod is pretty darn good. He's likely to lead off for an absolutely stacked Dominican team in the World Baseball Classic, which should be fun.
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#24
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Hey. He's gotta be pretty good if he can make already packaged Topps cards out of what looks like cookie dough.
( courtesy of the marginally imaginative minds at MLB network). .
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#25
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well pre war people sell a wide variety of cards , and very few lose 99 percent of their value, so thats the issue with the model. Seems more like a pyramid scheme for the julio rodiq types. the last one holding the bag when the music stops is in trouble..
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#26
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I agree he looks good but also his super expensive cards can fall in value...he can be great and still have huge loss of value in cards....
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#27
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#28
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Flipping lottery ticket winnings before they devalue isn't collecting.
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#29
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sort of like buying meme stocks..... Gamestop and Amc, its a different form of stocks buying in the past you can argue i guess is the same argument being made of modern v vintage.. i think you got it right how you said it
Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 02-27-2023 at 04:07 PM. |
#30
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matt olson
will likely have a better career when all said and done that Julio...
Fred Mcgriff harold baines...look out for a marginal HOF player to join you.... |
#31
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All you can do with any very talented player is watch and wait. See if he stays healthy, see if he develops a weakness other teams can exploit, see if he has the mental resiliency to wait out slumps, see if he can stay patient at the plate, etc.
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#32
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right and then thins out 99% of these guys...yet every there there are 2-3 rookies that their cards sell as 'cant miss' guys
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#33
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But why does it bother you?
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#34
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I guess you directed that to person that started the thread, doesnt bother me
'I don't get the insane Julio Rodiquez Hype' |
#35
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You said you were critical of the prices paid for his cards. But why be critical of what people pay for cards that you're not interested in buying?
He was the number 3 prospect in all of baseball heading into the season. Then he made the All Star team, won ROY, a Silver Slugger and finished 7th in MVP voting. Who else would be hyped if not that player? Last edited by packs; 02-28-2023 at 03:25 PM. |
#36
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ROY sure doesnt mean top tier player.. again its question of degree.....terrific prospect but at any price for the card? My opinion is that people are paying too much for this type of player as a ponzi type scheme where the people at the bottom end up losing their money....it happens in stock market too...I would be critical of people buying Gamestop stock at 300, but it doesnt bother me.. I can send you a list of former ROY or former number 3 prospects if you would like that did not pan out at all who had huge pedigree and its more likely than not that they do not meet elite status that people are paying for.... Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 03-01-2023 at 05:57 AM. |
#37
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I don't mind at all what people do with the money they earned.
My only fault is that the prospect market is a grift. 99% of these prospect prices during a release year will come at a long-term loss even if the kid becomes a HoF player. There is no way to maintain the hype for a full career anymore as the prospecting has eliminated the excitement of getting a long term win. In my mind, it's lose-lose. Much better to play the injury game and buy at a low on an off year and bet on a full recovery.
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#38
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No matter what he does, his cards will drop in price. That's the modern game. Juan Soto cards have dropped. Bryce Harper cards have dropped. Ohtani cards have dropped. It's just a silly game where new propsects are hyped to ridiculous impossible levels by people who run breaking websites and auction houses, dubious bidding groups run prices up to the stratosphere, and then like a game of musical chairs the musc stops and a lot of bagholders have no idea what just happened. Like a ponzi scheme, it's good going if you get in at the right time, but basically 99% of folks end up losing big time. I've seen the same cycle ovr and over. A few years ago there were insane prices for Bo Bichette cards.
With respect to the hype machine, helps if you have a cool or unusal name or nickname. Best prospect of all time could come long named Joe Smith or Bob Jones and, believe me, his prices aren't gong anywhere. Bobzu Smith yes. Bob Smith no. Could call it the Zion Effect. Or the Jasson Dominquez effect. Last edited by Snapolit1; 03-01-2023 at 08:29 AM. |
#39
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Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 03-01-2023 at 10:32 AM. |
#40
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I don't really think you guys are following the modern market. The examples of Juan Soto and Bryce Harper aren't really apt comparisons. Julio Rodriguez was supposed to be included in the original 2022 Topps Chrome product release. However, he and three other players were held out of the product due to manufacturing issues. The only way to obtain the Julio Rodriguez short print rookie was to try to pull it from 4 card silver packs released after the fact. This base rookie sells for over a thousand dollars but it's because it's nearly impossible to pull. The same is true for his Logofractor rookie. His Gilded Collection rookie has to be ripped from a $600 product and even then there are only 199 of them. So, premium product plus short printed rookie. This card also sells for a thousand and above. There isn't really an apt comparison for Julio other than his contemporaries whose cards had the same print runs. Right now only Spencer Torkelson, Hunter Greene and Bobby Witt had the same print runs but they're all lesser players, except maybe Witt. But his cards sell well too. You call it hype but there were actually a few unique and contributing factors to the high prices being paid for a flagship base Topps Chrome rookie and other rookies that fall under the short print umbrella. Last edited by packs; 03-01-2023 at 12:55 PM. |
#41
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I live in WA. JRod resurrected a fan base that has been quietly waiting for joy. Their specialty hats are selling out. I missed the AS hat I wanted, when I knew I should have ordered first thing. JRod is the next King Felix, next Ichiro, next ARod. He is the face of the franchise. In addition, another post highlights how difficult it is to get the Topps Chrome RC out of the silver packs, and the Logofractor that was selling for $800 in December doubled in price in February. That's absurd, but the electricity is real in WA, and fans are excited for playoff baseball and the AS Game in 2023. Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk
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#42
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I bought this Ohtani rookie auto in 2019 after it was announced he was hurt and wouldn't pitch that year. I rode the wave and bought low for only $250.
Two seasons later he won the MVP and finished 2nd last year. This card runs over 2K easy now. Was Ohtani's hype inflated? I would say no and I would also say the market's tendency to shun anyone who doesn't immediately live up to their expectations worked in my favor this time: [ |
#43
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and its a big net loss to people overall... |
#44
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Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 03-01-2023 at 01:29 PM. |
#45
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Today, if you ask me who you should be buying it's JRod and Ohtani at the MLB level and if you want to prospect the next guys, my money is only being spent on Elly de la Cruz, Jordan Lawler and Jackson Holliday. |
#46
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#47
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What bag? I have $275 invested in Elly and Jordan Lawler and $250 invested in Holliday. I expect a tidy return. Elly and Lawler should be up at the end of this year, if not sooner. And Holliday is already playing in spring training games after graduating high school this summer.
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#48
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#49
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It's true that you CAN buy the most expensive parallels of any individual player but you don't HAVE to. I buy base auto and if graded I avoid 10's because if I buy a PSA 9 and submit it on a different day, who knows anyway.
I just bought a raw Holliday first bowman auto this morning for $257. I remember when I was hemming and hawing over paying $150 for Juan Soto's first bowman auto after that came out. I'm not looking to make that mistake again. I do agree that there's a lot of money being wasted. I'm not interested in buying Gunnar Henderson, for example. He plays third base and there's very little chance he'll be as good as Manny Machado is, and Manny Machado doesn't really sell. So, no thank you for me there. Same with Adley Rutschman. Sure, he'll probably be good. But he probably won't be better than Buster Posey and Buster doesn't sell so well either. So I stay away. Last edited by packs; 03-01-2023 at 01:53 PM. |
#50
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So then
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