Graded vs. Raw Rant.......

[homerunhitter]

I think another way to look at it is, and for example only, if you have two nolan ryan 1968 topps rookies cards that are in the exact same condition, one is slabbed and graded by psa and the other is raw, go to a card show and try to sell both of them, which one do you think will get you more one. raw or graded?...... exactly! i think most people only like raw cards when they are buying them in hopes of getting graded to turn around and flip for a profit.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

I think another way to look at it is, and for example only, if you have two nolan ryan 1968 topps rookies cards that are in the exact same condition, one is slabbed and graded by psa and the other is raw, go to a card show and try to sell both of them, which one do you think will get you more one. raw or graded?...... exactly! i think most people only like raw cards when they are buying them in hopes of getting graded to turn around and flip for a profit.

I get what you are saying but the real question is how much did you pay for the raw Ryan and how much can you sell it for. Then how much did you pay for the graded Ryan compared to what you will sell it for. I would bet at a card show as long as you are a dealer and not trying to sell to one the profit margin percentage wise is pretty close.

I do agree the real money is getting raw cards into high grade PSA slabs.

[homerunhitter]

very fair points Ben. I agree with you my friend. I think every situation for everyone is difference as you pointed out how much one has invested in a card either raw or graded makes a huge difference. i guess thrown into the factor is, 20 years ago if you went to a card show raw was EVERYWHERE. nowadays if you go to a card show everyone seems to be walking around with a pelican box of slabs! also, every case has nothing but slabs, i dont think i even saw much raw cards at all. at the end of the day i believe it comes down to what each person feels comfortable with but if ebay completed sales, current card shows, card shops and various message board chatter is any indication, the hobby is trending toward graded cards as the future. i know... not what us old farts or traditional long time collects want to hear or are use too, but it is what it is, the young new collecting dollar generation is voting and they are voting for graded cards! it is evident everywhere!

[Exhibitman]

I guess it depends on where and in what you deal. What I have seen on whatnot is that most cards are sold raw, even the more expensive ones, but we are not talking 1933 Goudey Ruths. Also, eBay is a huge raw card market. I run collector grade baseball at $0.99 starting price auctions and some of them get very solid prices. There is always a market for collector grade cards for collectors who work with a budget, even in a recession. When I do shows, the boxes of modestly priced raw cards are what sell consistently. Last show I did was in August and I sold yards of them, literally. I had to go back to the office after first day and reload my sorting boxes because I got cleaned out the first day. You wanna see the perpetually busy tables at the National, look for the pickers' booths.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I guess it depends on where and in what you deal. What I have seen on whatnot is that most cards are sold raw, even the more expensive ones, but we are not talking 1933 Goudey Ruths. Also, eBay is a huge raw card market. I run collector grade baseball at $0.99 starting price auctions and some of them get very solid prices. There is always a market for collector grade cards for collectors who work with a budget, even in a recession. When I do shows, the boxes of modestly priced raw cards are what sell consistently. Last show I did was in August and I sold yards of them, literally. I had to go back to the office after first day and reload my sorting boxes because I got cleaned out the first day. You wanna see the perpetually busy tables at the National, look for the pickers' booths.

Great points, and also exemplifies how the hobby is and will continue to be doing well, even should the higher-end, higher-priced graded card market ever suffer and start coming down. The collector base is there, and will continue to be there, for at least quite some time to come.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BobC

Great points, and also exemplifies how the hobby is and will continue to be doing well, even should the higher-end, higher-priced graded card market ever suffer and start coming down. The collector base is there, and will continue to be there, for at least quite some time to come.

Even in 2008-2009, and that was the worst time I can recall in terms of activity.

[Jenx34]

I'm not sure if my take is unique, but I'll add my thoughts anyway.
On Graded cards
Personally my collection, outside of sets, which I am very limited in, when I buy a raw card it either goes into the pile to be graded or to be sold. I'm talking Vintage. If a card is worthy of keeping (with few exceptions), it should be graded. For preservation, primarily, but not just that. I generally like cards with a certain level of eye appeal and that tends to bottom at around a 4 or higher. Granted, my '53 Topps Paige is a 2.5 and one of my favorite cards, so it's not all black and white. I was always a corners guy so sharp corners and great color were more important than centering. That has begun to shift, but not all the say, so now I find the minimum quality of card I prefer a little higher grade than before. In general, I typically would buy 50's and 60's cards in the 4-6/7 range and 70's in the 6-9 range (more on 70's later)

On Buying Raw Cards
Again, establishing that I am a bit of a condition snob and do plan to get most keepers graded. Most raw cards I find at a show or LCS, and Ebay (separate discussion), are not the quality they are sold as, at least not relative to a graded card scale. My biggest issue is with my eyes. In most places I'm viewing raw cards, the lighting is not proper, there isn't a good background, etc. I carry a handheld magnifying glass, but still it's not the same looking at it as when I'm at home using the proper lighting and tools. Almost every time I get a card home and find flaws I didn't see when buying. By all of the threads/comments I see on various sources, of people complaining about the grades they get from PSA/SGC, I suspect that I am far from the minority in that my eyes can't catch enough in a live situation. So I will buy raw cards, but I am very hesitant and guarded when doing so. I know some don't care if a card is EX vs. NM if it looks good. I'm not wired that way. If I am going to pay NM pricing, I want to know that it is at least that. Too many cards are overpriced, and I suspect more for the reasons above than dishonesty. In general, we all think our cards are better than they probably are. And that's probably the biggest reason grading cards became a thing in the first place. The same reason coins, comic books, etc. are graded. There has to be a way to separate a very nice looking item from an elite item.

On Grading 70's Cards
I believe what most are missing here is the effect of Father Time. 1970's cards are now entering the 50 years old range. While you can find nice EX-EXMT examples, I submit there are FAR fewer examples that would grade in the 7-9 range, especially earlier in the decade). I really believe that buying stars in the 7-9 range right now is a great spot for upcoming growth. Think about it. The 70's are 2 decades behind the 50s and one behind the 60s and have great stars to collect. In 10-20 years from now, people will look back on that decade and remember it fondly and with nostalgia, just as they do the 50's and 60's now. As the OP said, it's easy to find EX+ condition in those cards. But is it really easy to find true NM and above condition and know they'll be kept that way? So I do think 70's graded cards are a good thing, at least in terms of the stars and in higher grades. I also agree that getting a card graded that's EX and gets a 5 probably isn't worth doing. Yet, anyway.

[homerunhitter]

here is a question that I saw on another message board.

for those that like graded vintage, do you prefer PSA or SGC?

[Exhibitman]

Whichever is cheaper if the cards are comparable. As a collector, it is a blondes or brunettes question.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

here is a question that I saw on another message board.

for those that like graded vintage, do you prefer PSA or SGC?

I'm fine with either. To me, the card inside the holder is the important thing.

I'm typically buying cards in the $50-$500 range, if that data makes a difference.

[homerunhitter]

Good to see that both graded and raw are in demand!

[homerunhitter]

But now hearing that fake graded cards are flooding the hobby now.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

But now hearing that fake graded cards are flooding the hobby now.

Fake or altered?

And just how flooding is flooding?

Certainly there are reports about graded altered cards (with number grades) being ubiquitous. I think there's room to debate precisely how ubiquitous they are. And we each have our theories, which tend to run the gamut.

Graded fakes seem less likely to be flooding in. My sense is it's more of a trickle, at least relative to the overall volume of graded cards.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

But now hearing that fake graded cards are flooding the hobby now.

Could you be more vague?

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

But now hearing that fake graded cards are flooding the hobby now.

Fake cards in genuine holders (the TPG graded a fake)

...or...

Cards in fake holders (someone manufactured a counterfeit slab)?


EDITED to add: I'm asking the group, not just the anonymous user who apparently spotted some flooding.

[homerunhitter]

any new updates to this thread? thanks