The future of Mike Trout

[Peter_Spaeth]

He's been OK this year so far but not his usual spectacular self. Are we seeing the next Albert Pujols -- an absolutely unreal first ten years followed by another ten years at a much reduced level -- or will he turn it around and stay among MLBs handful of best players for at least a few more years?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He's been OK this year so far but not his usual spectacular self. Are we seeing the next Albert Pujols -- an absolutely unreal first ten years followed by another ten years at a much reduced level -- or will he turn it around and stay among MLBs handful of best players for at least a few more years?

We're never again seeing the version of him from 7-10 years ago, but I think he will produce better than Pujols down the stretch of his career.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

We're never again seeing the version of him from 7-10 years ago, but I think he will produce better than Pujols down the stretch of his career.

Agreed. Guy played like a first ballot hall of famer and more for the first half of his career and will play like a really good player for his second half. Not a bad gig if you can get one.

[packs]

I think he has another MVP in him. I guess it can be said this season is his "worst" season statistically but he's still pretty good with his 132 OPS+. I think he snaps out of it too and ends the season hitting closer to 280 than 250.

[mrreality68]

Great player and I think he will keep producing but not at his Prime Levels but his years will still be better than most players

The Key is health. As long as he stays healthy he will keep producing

Just a shame his first year in the playoffs is this year(if they make it as they are playing well but on the bubble)
Would love to have seen him in the playoff in years past.

[Seven]

He's talked this year about the fact that he knows he's not performing like his usual self, and he thinks it's a mechanical issue. It's funny because a "down" year for Trout, is better than most of baseball produces at their best. I'll reserve judgment until the season is over, on his overall performance.

I'm not concerned with his future, I think if he put together two to three years in a row of this, then that would be a cause for concern. However we've seen with plenty of players them having an off year, only to storm back and put up numbers like they normally do. One recent example of this that I can think of is Goldschmidt.

I don't think he has much time left in Centerfield. Maybe a move to a corner outfield spot is in order, or eventually first base. I'd say to DH him more, but Ohtani currently occupies that spot, and that won't change unless the Angels lose him in free agency.

EDIT:

Looking at his numbers, assuming he has his health for the rest of his contract, he could join the elite group of 3000 hits and 500 Homers. Perhaps even more home runs, if he's able to keep his power performance up.

[philliesfan]

I hope his future is in Philly.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by philliesfan

I hope his future is in Philly.

Agreed I would take him on my team even with his “down year”

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by philliesfan

I hope his future is in Philly.

He signed a 10 year deal with the Angels in 2019.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He signed a 10 year deal with the Angels in 2019.

I think he's an Angel for life, unless they really don't come close to winning anything within the next five or so years and they trade him to a contender to give him a shot at winning a ring, at the tail end of his career.

[philliesfan]

I know about the contract. But via trade maybe. I do not think he would block a trade to the Phils.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by philliesfan

I know about the contract. But via trade maybe. I do not think he would block a trade to the Phils.

Trout for Harper!!

[JustinD]

Just hasn’t been the same since the back injuries started and I definitely think the best is well behind him. I see his career taking a similar path as Miguel Cabrera for the future.

[frankbmd]

Those of you who are not getting old need to learn more about aging.

I'm lucky though for I hit as many dingers at 75 as I did at 35 --- Zero

[maniac_73]

Should probably give it another year before making a judgment call. A lot of the greats have had down years and bounced back.


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[G1911]

I doubt he has a Pujols trajectory. Pujols was below leave average bat for half of his Angels stint; a truly worthless player considering he was a 1B/DH below league average. The second half of his career would have been half as long if he wasn't named Albert Pujols and was treated based on performance. Unlike Pujols, Trout remembers the age he claims to be and even in this bad season is 32% over league average bat while not being a 1B/DH.

Almost nobody is likely to be as good in their age 31-40 seasons as they were in their 21-30 seasons in physical male prime. That's not a Pujols trajectory, it's normal.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I doubt he has a Pujols trajectory. Pujols was below leave average bat for half of his Angels stint; a truly worthless player considering he was a 1B/DH below league average. The second half of his career would have been half as long if he wasn't named Albert Pujols and was treated based on performance. Unlike Pujols, Trout remembers the age he claims to be and even in this bad season is 32% over league average bat while not being a 1B/DH.

Almost nobody is likely to be as good in their age 31-40 seasons as they were in their 21-30 seasons in physical male prime. That's not a Pujols trajectory, it's normal.

As has been discussed, Pujols' counting stats were enhanced because he hit behind Trout who kept racking up absurd on base percentages. And I would push back the expected age of decline to 35 or so, I think countless non users have still been in their primes in their early 30s.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As has been discussed, Pujols' counting stats were enhanced because he hit behind Trout who kept racking up absurd on base percentages. And I would push back the expected age of decline to 35 or so, I think countless non users have still been in their primes in their early 30s.

Well yes. My Division comes from the stipulations of the OP, two halves of a career. If we are talking about 2 halves of a career ones early 30’s are not a half. If you’d like to cut a career into fourths or eighths instead then obviously things will look different. That, if you are cutting in half, the half constituting ones 20’s is likely to be better than the half constituting ones 30’s is difficult to debate.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Well yes. My Division comes from the stipulations of the OP, two halves of a career. If we are talking about 2 halves of a career ones early 30’s are not a half. If you’d like to cut a career into fourths or eighths instead then obviously things will look different. That, if you are cutting in half, the half constituting ones 20’s is likely to be better than the half constituting ones 30’s is difficult to debate.

Pujols, though, dropped off dramatically once he hit the second half, and at least so far it seems Trout is doing the same. So my question really was is the same thing going to happen to Trout? Granted, normal careers involve a more gradual tapering.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Pujols, though, dropped off dramatically once he hit the second half, and at least so far it seems Trout is doing the same. So my question really was is the same thing going to happen to Trout? Granted, normal careers involve a more gradual tapering.

Yes I get the question. As I said, I think the answer is no. Pujols trajectory is much more extreme than normal for a star player, and is probably influenced by his age being significantly inaccurate. Pujols himself couldn’t keep his story on his age straight and appears to be about +3 years older than he is. As I said, Pujols trajectory is highly abnormal if you take his most frequently claimed age to be accurate. As I said, there is no reason to think that Trout will have a Pujols trajectory rather than a normal decrease in production in his 30’s.

[mrreality68]

Injuries risks his future as always

And last night he gets a freak wrist injury

I hope it is not serious and I hope he does not lose to much time

[Peter_Spaeth]

Right on cue, unfortunately. I am surprised there is no word yet.

[Swadewade51]

He'll come back hit 9 hr in 9 games and the Angel's will go 0-9

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Fracture. 3-7 weeks is being reported.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Fracture. 3-7 weeks is being reported.

More details but expected to be out passed the trade deadline

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout suffered a fracture of the hamate bone in his left hand during Monday's game against the San Diego Padres (SD 10, LA 3), the Angels announced. Trout suffered the injury when he fouled back an 0-1 pitch from Nick Martinez in the seventh inning. Hamate fractures typically require surgery and come with a 3-7 week recovery.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by G1911

I doubt he has a Pujols trajectory. Pujols was below leave average bat for half of his Angels stint; a truly worthless player considering he was a 1B/DH below league average. The second half of his career would have been half as long if he wasn't named Albert Pujols and was treated based on performance. Unlike Pujols, Trout remembers the age he claims to be and even in this bad season is 32% over league average bat while not being a 1B/DH.

Almost nobody is likely to be as good in their age 31-40 seasons as they were in their 21-30 seasons in physical male prime. That's not a Pujols trajectory, it's normal.

At the same age Albert Pujols was 48% above league average and the next season he was 38% above league average. So right now Trout is below Pujols levels and is now injured again. After that, Pujols had 4 more decent seasons before falling off badly So let's see what Trout does the next 6 years in comparison to Pujols before saying no. And the way he keeps getting injured, Trout may never come close to Pujols counting numbers or longevity. Below league average is still better than out of the league.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by rats60

At the same age Albert Pujols was 48% above league average and the next season he was 38% above league average. So right now Trout is below Pujols levels and is now injured again. After that, Pujols had 4 more decent seasons before falling off badly So let's see what Trout does the next 6 years in comparison to Pujols before saying no. And the way he keeps getting injured, Trout may never come close to Pujols counting numbers or longevity. Below league average is still better than out of the league.

Well obviously if we wait to see what actually happens, that will be more accurate than guessing. No shit. That is true everywhere in every scenario all of the time. We know this. It’s a prediction thread.

The odds that Trout performs as badly as Pujols did in his second half is low. Pujols is a historically huge decline outside the normal decreasing route. Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely? No.

A well below league bat and playing DH is not better than out of the league. That’s negative value to the team, not positive. He wasn’t a net negative from 2013-2016, just pretty bad. From 2017-2021 he was a negative actively hurting his team.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Well obviously if we wait to see what actually happens, that will be more accurate than guessing. No shit. That is true everywhere in every scenario all of the time. We know this. It’s a prediction thread.

The odds that Trout performs as badly as Pujols did in his second half is low. Pujols is a historically huge decline outside the normal decreasing route. Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely? No.

A well below league bat and playing DH is not better than out of the league. That’s negative value to the team, not positive. He wasn’t a net negative from 2013-2016, just pretty bad. From 2017-2021 he was a negative actively hurting his team.

The only thing more astonishing to me than how bad Pujols really was for those 5 years was how good he suddenly became again in 2022 especially towards the end when he needed some completely improbable productivity to reach certain milestones and somehow delivered. I will never be convinced he wasn't getting some grooved pitches in there.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The only thing more astonishing to me than how bad Pujols really was for those 5 years was how good he suddenly became again in 2022 especially towards the end when he needed some completely improbable productivity to reach certain milestones and somehow delivered. I will never be convinced he wasn't getting some grooved pitches in there.

Oh yes. Pujols was a sandbagger in So Cal until the end was in sight and he needed a few more dingers.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by rats60

At the same age Albert Pujols was 48% above league average and the next season he was 38% above league average. So right now Trout is below Pujols levels and is now injured again. After that, Pujols had 4 more decent seasons before falling off badly So let's see what Trout does the next 6 years in comparison to Pujols before saying no. And the way he keeps getting injured, Trout may never come close to Pujols counting numbers or longevity. Below league average is still better than out of the league.

LOL, Trout has ZERO chance of getting even close to Pujols counting numbers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bnorth

LOL, Trout has ZERO chance of getting even close to Pujols counting numbers.

You are correct sir. Let us not forget Trout only played in 114 games in 2017, 134 games in 2019, 36 games in 2021, and 119 games in 2022. Not to mention 2020 though he was healthy. Those are huge swaths of games and likely stats already missed. He was well off the pace even before this latest.

[packs]

I think you can pick any player you want and say they won't come close to Pujols counting stats. Not sure how much about performance can be gleaned from something like that.

There are only three other players with 700 homers, for example.

[mrreality68]

They are both great players and both future HOFers some of Pujols down years were still better than many in MLB just compared to his prime they were not to his standards.

Trout in many was is the same way. He is not yet trending down as fast as Pujols and is still putting up good numbers but as mentioned earlier his health is the issues and misses chunks of games to often in to many years

He had the surgery on Wednesday and now it is just recovery time. But he will miss a large number of games. Then as usual he will come back and produce and the overall year will look respectable but never healthy enough to get the games to get the overall stats (BESIDES WAR) as Pujols did. (but 101.6 career for Pujols is still fantastic) and trout may pass it in the coming years but I will take Pujols on my team in his prime and beyond

[RCMcKenzie]

Upside-- Griffey Jr., Bagwell

Downside-- Victor Martinez, Michael Young, Joe Mauer

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

Upside-- Griffey Jr., Bagwell

Downside-- Victor Martinez, Michael Young, Joe Mauer

Agreed

Spot on

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't follow. If he never comes to the plate again, Trout has far surpassed those three players, and is already an easy HOF pick.

[Seven]

Trout's career seems to be mirroring someone who he was compared to quite often in his 20's, Mickey Mantle. It's unfortunate, but History does indeed repeat itself.

In terms of his counting numbers, assuming a decent bill of health, over the last 7 years of his contract, I would think he easily surpasses 500 Homers. 3000 hits is possible, but he would essentially have to play 150+ games every year from next year until the end of his current deal, in 2030.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't follow. If he never comes to the plate again, Trout has far surpassed those three players, and is already an easy HOF pick.

WAR, not the be all and end all I understand, agrees with Peter. Trout is already pretty darn elite and certain way above the floor guys here. Heck, he’s actually at or above the ceiling guys.

[G1911]

I assumed the comparison is a joke but we have a +1 for it. I’d love to read a rational argument as to how Mike Trout and Michael Young are comparable performance players.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I assumed the comparison is a joke but we have a +1 for it. I’d love to read a rational argument as to how Mike Trout and Michael Young are comparable performance players.

Ah maybe it sailed right over my head.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Carter08

WAR, not the be all and end all I understand, agrees with Peter. Trout is already pretty darn elite and certain way above the floor guys here. Heck, he’s actually at or above the ceiling guys.

3 MVPs, 3 2nds, and probably deserved to win 4 or even 5.

[RCMcKenzie]

Michael Young played almost all 162 games each season in his prime. Here are their current career numbers. I am showing traditional stats. Trout looks better in the advanced stat comparison. I am joking in the sense that these numbers are far, far closer than many fans buying Trout cards realize. Trout will need to grind until 2030 to reach Mantle's numbers.

[packs]

I'm guessing the Bagwell comment had to do with his seasons after age 31?

Otherwise it's truly a mystery as to why his name would be brought up.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by packs

I'm guessing the Bagwell comment had to do with his seasons after age 31?

Otherwise it's truly a mystery as to why his name would be brought up.

That's what I'm assuming, In terms of how Trout might age?

Honestly we can speculate until we're blue in the face, we have no idea what might happen. I remember thinking David Ortiz was cooked after 2008, and he went on a pretty solid run afterwards. Similarly I thought Miguel Cabrera found his groove again, after his 2016 season, and he fell off a cliff. Time will tell, with Mike Trout.

[RCMcKenzie]

If someone's favorite movie is Smokey and the Bandit, I'm not going to be able to convince them that Five Easy Pieces is better, but it's still fun to debate.

Trout has a long way to go and a short time to get there, to catch Baggy.

Kiner is a comp if Trout decides to retire this offseason.

[Peter_Spaeth]

IMO Kiner is not the best comp, because counting numbers have to be considered in context. Also Trout has 20 points on him in batting average. That said, Kiner may be a better hitter than he usually gets credit for, being often mentioned as one of the least deserving HOFers. He isn't that bad.

[RCMcKenzie]

Kiner was a great player. Attendance is part of the grade. Like Kiner, the Angels can finish in last place with or without Trout.

It's why I brought up the movie analogy. It's like political opinion to say it's not a comp.

[packs]

At 31 years old Trout has nearly twice the career WAR of Kiner and a higher career WAR than Bagwell. His OPS+ is almost 30 points higher than both Bagwell and Kiner as well.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Seven

Trout's career seems to be mirroring someone who he was compared to quite often in his 20's, Mickey Mantle. It's unfortunate, but History does indeed repeat itself.

In terms of his counting numbers, assuming a decent bill of health, over the last 7 years of his contract, I would think he easily surpasses 500 Homers. 3000 hits is possible, but he would essentially have to play 150+ games every year from next year until the end of his current deal, in 2030.

Big assumption and His health history does not make that seem realistic

[Seven]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Big assumption and His health history does not make that seem realistic

The 3000 hits? I would agree, it's a long shot at this point, unless if he did what I outlined.

500 Homers? He would pretty much have to replicate the current season, he is having 7 more times, which I think he's capable of doing.