The future of Shohei Ohtani

[Peter_Spaeth]

Can anyone remember his last home run?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Can anyone remember his last home run?

August 23rd, was his last home run, Peter. I'm wondering if his torn UCL is contributing to his approach to the plate at all. Or if he's simply, going through the motions, knowing that the Angels won't make the playoffs and that he'll be somewhere else next season.

[bk400]

Since the injury, he's had 38 plate appearances, during which he had 8 hits, including 3 doubles and a triple, and 10 walks (4 intentional). He also stole 3 bases. OBP of 474 and OPS of 938. Wonder if he's taking something off his swing, while still producing at a reasonably high level.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bk400

Since the injury, he's had 38 plate appearances, during which he had 8 hits, including 3 doubles and a triple, and 10 walks (4 intentional). He also stole 3 bases. OBP of 474 and OPS of 938. Wonder if he's taking something off his swing, while still producing at a reasonably high level.

I'm not sure that not hitting a Home Run in 28 bats is indicative of anything--he's been hitting the ball hard, its just been in play.

But who knows.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

I'm not sure that not hitting a Home Run in 28 bats is indicative of anything--he's been hitting the ball hard, its just been in play.

But who knows.

Any idea what Ohtani's longest stretch without a home run was this season before now? When Harper played most of last season after his elbow injury, he still hit for power so it seems like the injury itself shouldn't cause a home run drought, but if Ohtani has altered his swing because of it, there could be a connection to a power outage. However, over a long season, it could just be a brief anomaly.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Any idea what Ohtani's longest stretch without a home run was this season before now? When Harper played most of last season after his elbow injury, he still hit for power so it seems like the injury itself shouldn't cause a home run drought, but if Ohtani has altered his swing because of it, there could be a connection to a power outage. However, over a long season, it could just be a brief anomaly.

There was a period of time this year, where Harper was hitting the ball hard, but wasn't driving it into the seats. He's seemed to have made the proper adjustments and now that's no longer an issue however.

EDIT:

Figured I'd make an edit instead of a double post, granted it's Nightengale who isn't the most reliable, but he's reporting Ohtani might undergo TJ Surgery in 10 days.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...y/70757037007/

[bk400]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Any idea what Ohtani's longest stretch without a home run was this season before now? When Harper played most of last season after his elbow injury, he still hit for power so it seems like the injury itself shouldn't cause a home run drought, but if Ohtani has altered his swing because of it, there could be a connection to a power outage. However, over a long season, it could just be a brief anomaly.

I read somewhere that he went the last 22 games last season without a home run. I believe that his current "drought" is the longest he's had this season.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Seven

There was a period of time this year, where Harper was hitting the ball hard, but wasn't driving it into the seats. He's seemed to have made the proper adjustments and now that's no longer an issue however.

EDIT:

Figured I'd make an edit instead of a double post, granted it's Nightengale who isn't the most reliable, but he's reporting Ohtani might undergo TJ Surgery in 10 days.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...y/70757037007/

Yes, Harper definitely did not hit for much power following his initial return fromTommyJohn surgery, but he definitely got his power stroke going in August.

It wouldn't surprise me if Ohtani has surgery before the season ends. The Angels are out of the playoff race so may as well have it done to minimize the amount of time he misses in 2024 with whatever team he ends up.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bk400

I read somewhere that he went the last 22 games last season without a home run. I believe that his current "drought" is the longest he's had this season.

Ohtani had 30 straight at bats over a span of 8 games from August 4th through the 12th without a home run. His UCL tear was announced on the 23rd.


Yes, he ended last season with 22 straight games without a homer.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Ohtani had 30 straight at bats over a span of 8 games from August 4th through the 12th without a home run. His UCL tear was announced on the 23rd.


Yes, he ended last season with 22 straight games without a homer.

He missed starts or exited early starting in early August, I think, so that's probably when he sustained the injury. I think it's pretty clearly affected his power but still perhaps a sample size thing.

[cgjackson222]

https://twitter.com/zh_sho_o_sy0Z2z/...826032510?s=20

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He missed starts or exited early starting in early August, I think, so that's probably when he sustained the injury. I think it's pretty clearly affected his power but still perhaps a sample size thing.

This article says he sustained the injury when pitching on August 23rd. I don't know if you can pitch with a torn UCL.

The article also says he may avoid Tommy John:

Balelo explained that when Ohtani sustained his UCL tear in 2018, the tear was at the top of his UCL. But this time, it’s at the base of his UCL and there’s no damage to the repaired UCL from the initial surgery. Balelo, though, wouldn’t get into specifics about the options for Ohtani surgery-wise. There is an operation with a shorter recovery time that involves using an internal elbow brace, but it’s unclear whether that’s on the table.

“Multiple doctors looked at this and said this is the best-case scenario for the situation we're in,” Balelo said. “The ligament itself and the graft that was put in with the ligament in 2018 is still intact, no problems. And that’s a real positive to take away from this.”

Balelo added that Ohtani will be ready to serve as DH to start the 2024 season, even if he gets an operation on the elbow. Ohtani had surgery on Oct. 1, 2018, and didn’t make his season debut in ‘19 until May 7, but Balelo said this time is different because of where the tear is in his elbow. But there is a chance Ohtani has the surgery before the end of the season to make sure he’s ready for the start of next season as a hitter.

Also, this video seems to show he might be in pain just from swinging a bat (or he slipped?)

[jayshum]

Apparently he's not playing Monday because of an oblique injury from batting practice so that's probably what's seen in the video posted above.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Apparently he's not playing Monday because of an oblique injury from batting practice so that's probably what's seen in the video posted above.

He is listed as day to day with an oblique injury.

He is still putting up some amazing numbers with his bat and speed.

Perhaps with this 2nd injury he should just shut it down the rest of season or take some extra days off to let his body recover

[mrreality68]

First not pitching and now been out 6 games as a DH

Feel bad both for him and their fans.

They thought they had him for at least the final 2 months to set records and attract fans to the game and now nothing and no trout.

[Peter_Spaeth]

And now Trout may want out and the Angels are open to trading him.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And now Trout may want out and the Angels are open to trading him.

Better late than never!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Better late than never!

I didn't read the stories but the headlines are weird, the Angels saying they are open to trading him IF he requests it. Sending a message maybe?

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I didn't read the stories but the headlines are weird, the Angels saying they are open to trading him IF he requests it. Sending a message maybe?

Angels in tear down mode. They're practically begging Trout to request a trade at this point.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Angels in tear down mode. They're practically begging Trout to request a trade at this point.

If in fact he is still basically intact, what a great opportunity for him to move to a contending team for the back end of his career. He could be Pujols in reverse in that respect.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If in fact he is still basically intact, what a great opportunity for him to move to a contending team for the back end of his career. He could be Pujols in reverse in that respect.

That’s the thing. IS he intact? Trout hasn’t played close to a full season since 2019 (I don’t count 2020).

He hasn’t played an actual full season since 2016.

I think the Angels would trade him for any close to top 100 prospect, and not much else, if that team was willing to pick up his salary for the next 7 years.

They want HIM to ask for the trade, so they can save face with all the fans who can’t already tell the team is itching to dump him.

I think they’ll have a hard time finding a team who will take Trout off their hands, unless the Angels throw a lot of salary relief money in the pot…..and a lot more then the 30 million the Yankees got from the Marlins for Stanton.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

That’s the thing. IS he intact? Trout hasn’t played close to a full season since 2019 (I don’t count 2020).

He hasn’t played an actual full season since 2016.

I think the Angels would trade him for any close to top 100 prospect, and not much else, if that team was willing to pick up his salary for the next 7 years.

They want HIM to ask for the trade, so they can save face with all the fans who can’t already tell the team is itching to dump him.

I think they’ll have a hard time finding a team who will take Trout off their hands, unless the Angels throw a lot of salary relief money in the pot…..and a lot more then the 30 million the Yankees got from the Marlins for Stanton.

Hope springs eternal in baseball. He's a first tier HOFer and he's still only 32. Someone will take him.

[mrreality68]

I think Trout would still get a good return in a trade. However, I agree with his health concerns they will not get as much as they could if he was healthier. I think he will produce for several more years but not at the Trout level we have seen from years past. And with his injury history he will not age well. But he will still be above most players for the next 3 years or so just a matter of how many games he will play.

Would still love to see Trout and Ohtani on other teams and see them getting chances to play in meaning full games in a playoff race and into the playoffs

[packs]

The question is what do you give up for a guy with his issues. I don't see a Top 100 prospect haul like the Nationals got for Soto. I'm thinking the return would be closer to what the Mariners got for Griffey. A middle of the pack decent future major leaguer like the Mariners got in Mike Cameron.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Yankees would sell a good bit of the farm for Trout, wouldn't they? Especially if the Angels paid some of the salary, which I think they will have to

[John1941]

I will be furious if the Yankees get Trout. IMO he is over the hill in addition to being unable to stay healthy. The Yankees DO NOT need more big-contract oft-injured sluggers. And as for selling the farm they don't have much to sell.

[packs]

I would not be interested in Trout as a Yankees fan. We already have to deal with Stanton. We've had to deal with Donaldson and Hicks and Ellsbury and Pavano and on and on.

No thank you. Not again.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by packs

I would not be interested in Trout as a Yankees fan. We already have to deal with Stanton. We've had to deal with Donaldson and Hicks and Ellsbury and Pavano and on and on.

No thank you. Not again.

+1 agree for all his greatness Trouts best years are behind, health a concern for last several years, and a contract that is huge.
I also do not see the Angels eating any of trouts contract but could be wrong.
And if someone gets him with a middle package could be a steal of a deal for a year or so if he can get a year or 2 of relative health. When he is healthy he still puts up some nice numbers

[BobbyStrawberry]

So Yankee fans don't want Trout...fair enough. Maybe Uncle Uncle Stevie can pay up and bring Trout to Queens. And hopefully Ohtani too

[bk400]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

So Yankee fans don't want Trout...fair enough. Maybe Uncle Uncle Stevie can pay up and bring Trout to Queens. And hopefully Ohtani too

Uncle Stevie can have Trout, but please leave Ohtani alone. If the baseball gods are smiling down on us fans, then it will be Ohtani to the Dodgers.

[mrreality68]

hopefully Uncle Stevie stays away from Trout.
First he would have to trade away some assets and is just begin to rebuild the farm system and he would have to take over that contract on a great player that is getting up their in age and related health issue.
If fully healthy I would love to have him on my team but because of the health concerns I would prefer to stay away
Stevie better Sign Alonso to a long term contract and not trade him

[Peter_Spaeth]

Alonso looks more and more like Adam Dunn. BA .222 right now.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Alonso looks more and more like Adam Dunn. BA .222 right now.

You are right Peter. With his batting average he is.

But the game has changed now where batting average is the outlier andpower numbers is what it about.

except for the special players like Acuna, Othani, Judge etc most players that put up 25 plus homers have high high strike outs and low averages.

But Alonso is hitting the homers over 40, hitting in RBI's over 100 and not many are near those number in the league and Alonso is been consistent with those types of numbers.

He is not a super star like some others and not putting up Olson, freeman numbers etc but he would be very very hard to replace his consistency and his production

For example
Most homers since 2018 190. 4th in all of MLB
Most RBI's since 2018 485. 11th in all of MLB.
most Runs since 2018 392. #31 in all of mlb

not bad for someone who is not hitting for average

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

You are right Peter. With his batting average he is.

But the game has changed now where batting average is the outlier andpower numbers is what it about.

except for the special players like Acuna, Othani, Judge etc most players that put up 25 plus homers have high high strike outs and low averages.

But Alonso is hitting the homers over 40, hitting in RBI's over 100 and not many are near those number in the league and Alonso is been consistent with those types of numbers.

He is not a super star like some others and not putting up Olson, freeman numbers etc but he would be very very hard to replace his consistency and his production

For example
Most homers since 2018 190. 4th in all of MLB
Most RBI's since 2018 485. 11th in all of MLB.
most Runs since 2018 392. #31 in all of mlb

not bad for someone who is not hitting for average

As Alonso's Rookie season was 2019, if you look at numbers since when he was a Rookie, they are even more impressive:

#1 in Home Runs with 190 (2nd best is Olson with 174)
#1 in RBIs (666 to Olson's 650)
#9 in Slugging
#14 in OPS
#14 in Runs

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

As Alonso's Rookie season was 2019, if you look at numbers since when he was a Rookie, they are even more impressive:

#1 in Home Runs with 190 (2nd best is Olson with 174)
#1 in RBIs (666 to Olson's 650)
#9 in Slugging
#14 in OPS
#14 in Runs

wow, Dumb of me. But I was using 2018 because of many of the other top hitters.
But wow that is even more amazing.
I can deal with a lower batting average(still would prefer near .250) but with that consistency and production the Mets would be insane to lose him. Hard to replace those types of numbers

[D. Bergin]

So far, Alonso's strongest suit is his availability. Hasn't missed many games at all in his career.

That's worth a lot of money to any team right there...as long as he generally keeps up what he is doing offensively.

I'd like to see him cut down on the strikeouts and up the walks a bit...but I don't see a lot of players improving in those categories once they reach their late 20's.

They are what they are at this point, and that hole in their swings usually just gets bigger as they age.

Apparently he's a much better 1st baseman then Dunn, because it's stunning how much his defense kills Dunn's WAR numbers, looking at his baseball reference page.

I never saw Dunn play 1st base, but I saw Jason Giambi play 1st base for years...and Dunn's defensive metrics make Giambi look like a Don Mattingly or Keith Hernandez in comparison....and Giambi was a baaaaaad 1st baseman. Maybe he just looked awful to me after years of being spoiled by Don Mattingly and Tino Martinez...but he's the one who made me think that a good 1st baseman in under-rated in both defensive metrics and fans always claiming the worst fielders get put there because it's such an easy position....which I call bullshit on.

I grew up playing baseball, and the only two positions that scared me to play were catcher and 1st baseman. Maybe because I was a little kid, but I wanted no part of either one.

[BobbyStrawberry]

I'm glad someone mentioned Matt Olson. He is putting up unreal numbers this year:

.281/.388/.619 with 51 HR, 116 R, 128 RBI

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I'm glad someone mentioned Matt Olson. He is putting up unreal numbers this year:

.281/.388/.619 with 51 HR, 116 R, 128 RBI

Acuna, Freeman, Betts and Olson are all having sensational seasons.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Acuna, Freeman, Betts and Olson are all having sensational seasons.

Agreed! Mookie got off to a slow start (for him) but has been fantastic. He and his infield eligibility have been carrying my fantasy team down the stretch

[Peter_Spaeth]

His minor league cards show him as a second baseman. Trivia -- what HOF outfielder's RC shows him as a second baseman?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

His minor league cards show him as a second baseman. Trivia -- what HOF outfielder's RC shows him as a second baseman?

Yes, but I don't believe he ever played there in the majors until this season.

Good question...without knowing the era I probably won't get it...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Yes, but I don't believe he ever played there in the majors until this season.

Good question...without knowing the era I probably won't get it...

No clues yet.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No clues yet.

Ooh, is it Ed Delahanty?

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

His minor league cards show him as a second baseman. Trivia -- what HOF outfielder's RC shows him as a second baseman?

Are you talking about Yastrzemski's Rookie card? There are probably others.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Are you talking about Yastrzemski's Rookie card? There are probably others.

Yes.

[mrreality68]

This says it all

[Peter_Spaeth]

Call me old school but hard for me to get worked up about a guy batting .220.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Call me old school but hard for me to get worked up about a guy batting .220.

you are correct his batting average is bad but he is a career .253 batting average.
And this current era of baseball is more about power than average. And this is sadly the era when strike outs are very high amongst most baseball players and no one really cares.
Adam Dunn always gets blasted for his high strike outs and you do not year those some things nowadays

Matt Olson has 155 strikeouts(10th overall) on the season with weeks to go. Kyle Schwarber has 190 strikeouts(1st overall)

Peter alonso has 128(48th overall)

Almost all the top home run hitters this year accept the True Top Players have high strikeouts and below average batting average

[Peter_Spaeth]

Baseball has never loved guys like Dunn, Kingman, Rob Deer, Gorman Thomas, and so on and so on with high HRs, high Ks and low BA. Jeff you say it's more accepted now but is it? The overall impact should still be the same, whether you measure it by WAR or something else.

[G1911]

What gets me is that strikeouts are treated as if they are meaningless for a batter, a not very significant measure and it's okay to rack up 150-200 of them.

Yet, they are treated as very important, one of the most important measures, for a pitcher.

As this is a direct adversarial relationship, this doesn't make sense. If a particular outcome of a plate appearance is really important positively for a pitcher, it is really bad for a batter and vice versa.

I don't so much care that we either go back to not liking batter strikeouts or not, but this should be consistent.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Baseball has never loved guys like Dunn, Kingman, Rob Deer, Gorman Thomas, and so on and so on with high HRs, high Ks and low BA. Jeff you say it's more accepted now but is it? The overall impact should still be the same, whether you measure it by WAR or something else.

I don't know that we can lump Pete Alonso into the group of high strikeout/low average folks you mentioned, just yet.

His career WAR of 17.6 in 4.5 seasons is already almost as high as the career totals for Dunn (17.9), Thomas (19.8), and is higher than Kingman (17.3), Deer (13.8).

This got me thinking though, so I put together the below table to compare and added a few other sluggers (Howard, Kiner, Ortiz, and Thome).

A few things jumped out: Alonso's Strikeout to At-bat rate of 26% is lower than most others. But his walk rate is per Plate Appearance is lower than all of them except Kingman.

His HR/AB is the highest, and is actually even higher this year at 8.9%.

What I fear is that because he is a very large man, he may not age well. And he started his career relatively late, getting to the majors at age 24. Thome is a large man who aged well, but many think he did Roids. Same for Ortiz.