Does Jose Bautista piss you off?

[collectbaseball]

Bautista is clearly a beast of epic proportion, but I think it is a little naive to assume that he will "keep up this pace" for some very significant amount of time. You can't just extrapolate his numbers and say he's on pace to hit however many hundreds of home runs over the next three years. Lyle Overbay was on pace for like 170 RBI at some point in the 2004 season. If you really think numbers project like that, I'd like to formally extend an invitation to my fantasy league. Tons of random people go on very hot streaks for half-seasons and seasons. His is bit longer, but it's hard to believe that he will keep it up forever. (That's not to say he will decline significantly, but that I think it would basically be impossible for any human being to keep up his pace).

I've got a few more late bloomers for you to consider: what about someone like Dante Bichette, who didn't have anything really resembling a "good" year until his sixth year in the majors at age 29, and went on to hit 40 homers and bat .340 at age 31? (Granted, that was in Colorado during the steroid era). Gorman Thomas played four miserable years then came back and was a much better hitter (beginning at age 27). Hank Sauer didn't do a whole lot in the minors until he was 29, had a ridiculous year at age 30 in AAA ball, and then came up to the bigs and walloped the ball as a 31 year old.

While it's okay to be skeptical (I think that would've served some of those May 21st doomsdayers well), I think Bautista's probably for real.