Cards still being outed on Blowout -- PSA 9 Monte Irvin in the recent ML

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

There are thousands of us in the hobby. You are surely overgeneralizing. Many do not care, and many do.

Peter, sure, some care, but enough to give up on an already slabbed high end card they want? I doubt that.

This whole post is on that psa 9 Irvin. Keep us posted if the buyer send back to the auction. Or if the auction comes out with a statement.

[Johnny630]

A lot of good prospectives on this post, I appreciate what Drew and Snow have to say. They’re keeping it real, it’s the reality of the situation. Sure cards may be trimmed in holders and they may have turned a 30$ into a $30,000 card but what can you do about it other than talk, nothing. It’s the way things are, I go back to a quote once told to me by a wise veteran on the job, he told me, John, you might not like it but some things you just have to accept or it will drive you crazy.

As far as disclosing we are thinking way to highly of people, with the monies these cards are worth in holders, that's sugar pie in the sky fairy tales and daisies.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by Snowman

This is not a rebuilt corner on this 53 Topps Jackie PSA 6. That's not missing paper in the scans. It's a bent corner and the light is reflecting off it in a way that makes it appear like it's missing paper. But it's not. This card has simply been soaked in water and dried flat. That bend would go away just by soaking it in water.

I know and that's why I posted a different image of the card. I despise the card doctors and scammers in the hobby but I think they're getting carried away with some of the so called alterations that they are pointing out on blowout. The only thing you can prove from the scans of the Jackie card is that it received a grade bump. I don't see a bent corner that you're seeing either.

I'm all for pointing out alterations and outing the guy's that are altering the cards but if they don't limit it to definitive proof they lose credibility IMO.

[JustinD]

This is the result of the investors beginning to outnumber the collectors. A quick perusal of Blowout Forum (flipper central) will net you a an 80/20 positive thought level on card doctoring. The history is backseat to the profit margin.

Sadly as technology progresses this is what I believe will kill the hobby and many more. I envision a 15-20 window before advancement steps up to repair or create such perfect replicas that they will be virtually indistinguishable from original. The TPGs will be rendered useless and it money for purists will possibly flip to low mid grades in the oldest holsters possible. Who knows, but technology will kill history

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Peter, sure, some care, but enough to give up on an already slabbed high end card they want? I doubt that.

This whole post is on that psa 9 Irvin. Keep us posted if the buyer send back to the auction. Or if the auction comes out with a statement.

When Brent offered refunds for cards that had been outed, plenty of people sent theirs back because they didn't want them. I suppose some could have been motivated by fear the card would be tainted for a future sale, but I would bet a lot that many genuinely did not want them. Don't underestimate how some of us, particularly of a certain age, grew up in a hobby where trimming and recoloring were viewed as unethical, and altered cards were vile.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by JustinD

This is the result of the investors beginning to outnumber the collectors. A quick perusal of Blowout Forum (flipper central) will net you a an 80/20 positive thought level on card doctoring. The history is backseat to the profit margin.

Sadly as technology progresses this is what I believe will kill the hobby and many more. I envision a 15-20 window before advancement steps up to repair or create such perfect replicas that they will be virtually indistinguishable from original. The TPGs will be rendered useless and it money for purists will possibly flip to low mid grades in the oldest holsters possible. Who knows, but technology will kill history

Speaking of the future, if it’s so easy to create a high grade card today, I would expect the pop numbers will start rising dramatically, and prices should fall, because the supply should easily outstrip demand. Particularly if you can spin $50 into $30,000 with so little effort and relatively few skills.

With any luck, the doctors will put themselves out of business by driving down the price for their work.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Speaking of the future, if it’s so easy to create a high grade card today, I would expect the pop numbers will start rising dramatically, and prices should fall, because the supply should easily outstrip demand. Particularly if you can spin $50 into $30,000 with so little effort and relatively few skills.

With any luck, the doctors will put themselves out of business by driving down the price for their work.

What? They've been at this for decades. Do you see prices declining?

[G1911]

I can’t imagine paying $30,000 for a common card of Monte Irvin, altered or not. I spent $3 on my copy, I have a hard time seeing as how removing the creases and giving it sharp corners would increase my enjoyment 10,000 times the current level of enjoyment.

If ‘collectors’ didn’t require validation and a label on a 1-10 scale this fraud would not me so immense and profitable. People’s ego’s needing the highest number is inevitably going to produce astonishing levels of fraud when it is so easy to create the items they are paying silly amounts of money for.

How many of us gave up this grading sham once we realized just how fake most of these cards are and the utter incompetence (at best) of PSA to detect it? It seems to mostly be people who never bought in in the first place, people against the fraud but continuing to participate in the game anyways, and people who just don’t care or actively cheerlead or defend fraud.

[Yoda]

With PWCC now under new management, applying new standards to both bidders and consigners, and, hopefully, severing relations with known 'fixers', I hope the integrity of their auctions will improve. At a minimum, when receiving a highly graded vintage card, they should do their own due diligence and check Blowout to see if the submitted card has been outed.

[BobbyStrawberry]

When I see a 70+ year-old card in a PSA 9, I assume that it's been altered.

And it's absolutely nuts to me that someone would pay $29,950 more for a card that barely looks any better than the 5 just because someone looked at it and slapped a higher number on the label.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

What? They've been at this for decades. Do you see prices declining?

Which probably is a sign that it can’t be that widespread and/or easy to do.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Which probably is a sign that it can’t be that widespread and/or easy to do.

Don't you wish.

Among other things we are not talking about a static demand and supply curve, but huge outward shifts in the demand curve over time. As more and more examples of iconic cards have been graded over time, e.g. the 311, prices should be declining under your theory independent of doctoring or not. Not so.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Don't you wish.

Put your economist hat on. When something is easy to do and you can make bank, then everyone will rush in and start doing it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Put your economist hat on. When something is easy to do and you can make bank, then everyone will rush in and start doing it.

There are many card doctors. Trust me. Look at all the ones exposed on Blowout and they missed or could not pin down several of the most important ones.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Put your economist hat on. When something is easy to do and you can make bank, then everyone will rush in and start doing it.

Some people may actually have morals and not do it even though they could.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Some people may actually have morals and not do it even though they could.

That’s a good possibility, although I’m not convinced that’s a factor here.

I would submit 3 hypotheses:

1) maybe it’s not that easy to do, or at least the success rate is low.
2) the sheer number of cards and issues out there means that even with widespread doctoring, the doctors struggle to meaningfully raise the relative number of high grade cards.
3) it’s not really all that well known by the general population as a route to riches.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Yoda

With PWCC now under new management, applying new standards to both bidders and consigners, and, hopefully, severing relations with known 'fixers', I hope the integrity of their auctions will improve. At a minimum, when receiving a highly graded vintage card, they should do their own due diligence and check Blowout to see if the submitted card has been outed.

Why does that apply only to PWCC/Fanatics?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

That’s a good possibility, although I’m not convinced that’s a factor here.

I would submit 3 hypotheses:

1) maybe it’s not that easy to do, or at least the success rate is low.
2) the sheer number of cards and issues out there means that even with widespread doctoring, the doctors struggle to meaningfully raise the relative number of high grade cards.
3) it’s not really all that well known by the general population as a route to riches.

2 and 3. Not 1. Also as I posted before, constant outward shifting of the demand curve means increased supply won't reduce price.

[G1911]

As to the ease of trimming, it's super easy and I did it myself.

If you take a stack of cards, of basically any year and any set, there are natural size differences. I'm opening a box of 2022 Heritage High Number right now, lining up the cards from the last 3 packs on my desk, so that the bottom edge of the card is against the flat surface of the desk, I can discern with my poor and glaucoma ridden eyes that the cards are very slightly different heights. This provides the margin by which one may trim the card without leaving much evidence. Even to this day card production is not so good that the size tolerances are not perceptible to the human eye.

Using the modern tools and trimming methods, which I don't want to fully state but 'if you know you know' and they are not to hard to find. They require no expensive or unusual tooling or particular skill. I took some 1990 Score football and micro trimmed them last year. I chose these because they are worthless, I have them sitting around, and the border design lends itself to make a sizing difference more easily discernible to the human eye with the white striping pattern, so they are more difficult to shorten without it being noticed. After handling the cards a bit to produce slight corner wear at the top and bottom, I micro trimmed them. Didn't even need to practice or anything before I produced cards I knocked down to EX-MT and then cut to perfect corners and normal size, without any way to really see they were trimmed.

Edge coloring can help ID a vaguely recent trimming, among other things, but especially with modern cards, it's nigh impossible without before and after scans to have a high success rate at the identification.

[Peter_Spaeth]

By the way, from Blowout, several low pop 9s including a pop 2 were in the same PSA sub as the Irvin, but have not been put up for sale yet. Stay tuned. The best is yet to come.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

2 and 3. Not 1. Also as I posted before, constant outward shifting of the demand curve means increased supply won't reduce price.

Riffing on this theme a bit more, what’s to keep a relatively amoral group like organized crime from setting up their own card doctoring operation to supplement their other economic activities?

They certainly wouldn’t have any moral objections. They have an army of low-skilled labor at their disposal. And enough capital to buy the equipment and training to set up shop.

You could imagine an army of buyers trained to sift through auctions to find raw and low or mid grade pieces ripe for grade bumps with a little doctoring. All those cards end up funneled off to some warehouse where a sweatshop filled with card doctors labors day and night with their tools and a little training to improve those cards for superior grading. If they wanted to skip the learning curve, they could even hire one of these existing doctors to manage the operation. Or if they wanted to skip paying for it, they could squeeze him to give up his secrets.

The thought is a little terrifying, as thousands of cards per day could be doctored and pushed through grading, and out onto an unsuspecting hobby. Before you know it, the number of high grade copies for every issue and every player would swell to the point that supply might finally exceed demand. Might take a lot since demand is so deep. But when that point finally arrived, the prices would inevitably fall.

And if you’re worried that a domestic group would worry about detection by law enforcement, then there’s nothing to prevent international groups in Russia or North Korea or Sicily (or all of them together) from setting up such an operation.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Wut? Or perhaps, whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat? Sarcasm perhaps?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

2 and 3. Not 1. Also as I posted before, constant outward shifting of the demand curve means increased supply won't reduce price.

I disagree about point #1. At least for some of these cards. The bottom left corner on that Monte Irvin has been completely rebuilt. Paper stock and top layer/paint. This is not some amateur job. This is the work of an expert. You could probably count on one hand the number of people in the hobby who are capable of performing an alteration like this.

If we're talking about trimming, then sure. A lot of people have paper cutters. But even at that, I don't think you can just grab a random vintage card, take a slice off of it, and get a 9 nowadays. If that were the case, these pop reports would indeed be blowing up. But that isn't happening.

Perhaps it is worth pointing out that during his interview with that podcast, Mathis talked about buying up several PSA 9s of a card that he wanted a 10 for with one of his registry sets and sending them all to a card doctor in hopes that just one of them could be turned into a 10. They weren't just grabbing random cards, like 5s or 6s, and cutting them up and getting 10s. They were looking for near-perfect cards and trying to make very minor improvements. This tells me that nobody within even his well connected circle of highly skilled card doctors was capable of performing an alteration like the one we see on this Monte Irvin card.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I disagree about point #1. At least for some of these cards. The bottom left corner on that Monte Irvin has been completely rebuilt. Paper stock and top layer/paint. This is not some amateur job. This is the work of an expert. You could probably count on one hand the number of people in the hobby who are capable of performing an alteration like this.

If we're talking about trimming, then sure. A lot of people have paper cutters. But even at that, I don't think you can just grab a random vintage card, take a slice off of it, and get a 9 nowadays. If that were the case, these pop reports would indeed be blowing up. But that isn't happening.

Perhaps it is worth pointing out that during his interview with that podcast, Mathis talked about buying up several PSA 9s of a card that he wanted a 10 for with one of his registry sets and sending them all to a card doctor in hopes that just one of them could be turned into a 10. They weren't just grabbing random cards, like 5s or 6s, and cutting them up and getting 10s. They were looking for near-perfect cards and trying to make very minor improvements. This tells me that nobody within even his well connected circle of highly skilled card doctors was capable of performing an alteration like the one we see on this Monte Irvin card.

Fair enough. Some of the work is highly skilled.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Wut? Or perhaps, whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat? Sarcasm perhaps?

Maybe?

Setting aside the morals and just putting my economist hat on, it seems like the natural progression. If it’s really easy to do, requires little skill, training, or capital, with an army of drones to take up the work, and you can make tens of thousands of dollars on each card, then organized crime would seem like the perfect fit. Those groups are certainly interested in making a quick buck, and it’s hard to imagine their code of honor would frown on such an enterprise.

And yet it doesn’t happen, or hasn’t yet.

Perhaps for one of the reasons that I speculated above. Perhaps for others.

I’m certainly inclined to guess that a big reason is that it’s not as easy as it might seem to us. Travis has suggested as much, and I have no reason to doubt he’s wrong.

[Peter_Spaeth]

You know best. i must be wrong about the extent of it, you've convinced me. I'll just have to discard everything I've learned and heard from all my sources for decades now, damn. Not. PS you seem to be trying to convince yourself that most of your high grade cards are OK. If you feel safe, great.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You know best. i must be wrong about the extent of it, you've convinced me. Not. PS you seem to be trying to convince yourself, good luck with that.

I’m really not sure what I believe. Just trying to make a little sense of it through the economic lens. Haven’t quite been able to square the circle just yet. And maybe we never will.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

I’m really not sure what I believe. Just trying to make a little sense of it through the economic lens. Haven’t quite been able to square the circle just yet. And maybe we never will.

Do what suits you, I know what I know, facts are facts. Even if it were hard, and most of it isn't, think how many cards even a single person could alter if that was his sole occupation for, say, three decades. You do the math, then multiply it by all the card doctors out there, and then add in all the ones doing routine stuff. It adds up.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Do what suits you, I know what I know, facts are facts.

Cool cool.

I’m just trying to better understand the facts.

I promise I still despise the concept of card doctors, and I sincerely hope nothing in my collection is doctored.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I hope so too.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I hope so too.

Sadly, given the fact that much of my collection is high grade postwar, it sounds like the odds are good that some or even most of what I have should be under suspicion, even if it’s not on any lists (yet).

I think that sort of a dawning realization is less than fun to consider. I’m probably still halfway in the denial phase and halfway in the bargaining phase of the grief process.

[raulus]

My first double post. I guess I’m a member of the club now.

[Beercan collector]

I’m to the point where I think I’d enjoy viewing a complete PSA 6 1953 set With all the touched corners , rough cuts and fuzzy borders than looking a chopped up PSA 8-9 set

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

My first double post. I guess I’m a member of the club now.

I don't know what you've bought, or what it looks like, or from whom, so hard to comment. I went through this on a much smaller scale a very long time ago and downgraded most big ticket cards I had, because I didn't want to deal with the cloud of all the card doctoring. It was prevalent even back then. But I wasn't iinto very deep at the time. I hope you find a way to deal with it all, it does suck, no question.

[Peter_Spaeth]

By the way even now, with settling for lower grades than I used to on most stuff and a great deal of due diligence on any significant card I buy, I am sure altered cards have gotten through. But so far I can tolerate that relative risk, if the alternative is not to collect.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

When Brent offered refunds for cards that had been outed, plenty of people sent theirs back because they didn't want them. I suppose some could have been motivated by fear the card would be tainted for a future sale, but I would bet a lot that many genuinely did not want them. Don't underestimate how some of us, particularly of a certain age, grew up in a hobby where trimming and recoloring were viewed as unethical, and altered cards were vile.

Peter, I also agree it is unethical, but I am a realist and this era of card collecting is total different than 10 or 20 years ago. We are in a brave world here.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Beercan collector

I’m to the point where I think I’d enjoy viewing a complete PSA 6 1953 set With all the touched corners , rough cuts and fuzzy borders than looking a chopped up PSA 8-9 set

I don't collect sets, but this is basically where I landed as well some time ago.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't know what you've bought, or what it looks like, or from whom, so hard to comment. I went through this on a much smaller scale a very long time ago and downgraded most big ticket cards I had, because I didn't want to deal with the cloud of all the card doctoring. It was prevalent even back then. But I wasn't iinto very deep at the time. I hope you find a way to deal with it all, it does suck, no question.

If you’ve got time to waste and wanted to check out my higher grade more valuable stuff, a lot of it is here with my Mays set:

https://www.psacard.com/psasetregist...timeset/290520

A little more here with my McCovey set:

https://www.psacard.com/psasetregist...timeset/333139

Most of the items have pics attached, so you can dig down into the details if you’re so inclined.

Most of it was acquired in the last 10 years. Hundreds of different sellers online with eBay, including lots of other more traditional AHs, and a handful of reputable dealers offline. Certainly no single source, but lots of different places, including some AHs that I later learned are less loved around here, although it seems like most of the AHs have their fair share of detractors around here.

Your approach seems like a big step. But if you believe in it enough, then it makes sense.

[Beercan collector]

Love that 54 Mays 8.5 With the rough cut ,
Kudos to the grader

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by raulus

If you’ve got time to waste and wanted to check out my higher grade more valuable stuff, a lot of it is here with my Mays set:

https://www.psacard.com/psasetregist...timeset/290520

A little more here with my McCovey set:

https://www.psacard.com/psasetregist...timeset/333139

Most of the items have pics attached, so you can dig down into the details if you’re so inclined.

Most of it was acquired in the last 10 years. Hundreds of different sellers online with eBay, including lots of other more traditional AHs, and a handful of reputable dealers offline. Certainly no single source, but lots of different places, including some AHs that I later learned are less loved around here, although it seems like most of the AHs have their fair share of detractors around here.

Your approach seems like a big step. But if you believe in it enough, then it makes sense.

I have not looked at the collection and even if I did I am not sure what can be deduced from scans of cards in holders. Card altering is pervasive in the hobby. If you really want to get a perspective on it, as I did at one point, read the numerous threads on blowout. If you are mainly into high grade I would say that is an area more prone to altering but as has been demonstrated altered material is making its way into all grades. It seems to be simply about the economics of it. If a card can be improved and the bump in grade justifies the cost of grading, time and effort, then that card will likely be altered by someone. Some collectors don't care because the holder cleanses the alteration and those collectors seem (right or wrong) to conclude the holder validates the card.

You can go to all kinds of steps to avoid altered stuff but unless you know for sure who submitted it and you know for sure that person is not someone who alters cards, you simply have to take another leap of faith.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I have not looked at the collection and even if I did I am not sure what can be deduced from scans of cards in holders. Card altering is pervasive in the hobby. If you really want to get a perspective on it, as I did at one point, read the numerous threads on blowout. If you are mainly into high grade I would say that is an area more prone to altering but as has been demonstrated altered material is making its way into all grades. It seems to be simply about the economics of it. If a card can be improved and the bump in grade justifies the cost of grading, time and effort, then that card will likely be altered by someone. Some collectors don't care because the holder cleanses the alteration and those collectors seem (right or wrong) to conclude the holder validates the card.

You can go to all kinds of steps to avoid altered stuff but unless you know for sure who submitted it and you know for sure that person is not someone who alters cards, you simply have to take another leap of faith.

I’ve read several of the blowout posts, so I have a pretty good grasp on the situation, although it’s been a hot minute since the last time I last dug into a post.

I certainly fear that there’s a distinct possibility that some of my pieces might be doctored, although in the absence of more specific knowledge, it’s hard to know which pieces might be suspicious or worthy of further investigation, other than the higher value ones are naturally more likely to be tempting to a doctor who might take a former mid grade piece and transform it into a higher grade piece.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If you haven't done so, start with the database at Tiffany Cards, not necessarily to search for your specific cards, but to see if they are adjacent to outed cards and therefore likely submitted by the same folks who subbed outed cards. It's at least one point of information.
https://www.tiffanycards.com/tiffany-cards

https://www.tiffanycards.com/altered-card-database/cert

[Lorewalker]

Another thing that can be done is to check VCP to see if that card sold previously and if it was from a suspicious source. Short of knowing someone who has a great eye for detecting alterations or being able to do that yourself, this is about as good as you can do. We all might have to accept that we have altered cards in our collections. You can drive yourself nuts to the point where you no longer enjoy collecting.

[Peter_Spaeth]

PSA cert lookup also sometimes identifies prior sales. It would tell you, for example, if the initial sale was in PWCC. I understand it is not 100 percent reliable, but again, it's data.

[Casey2296]

I agree with previous posts where the hobby may lead, Psa 10 collectors are a different world, rare card and pre war collectors strive to a 4 grade at best. I would always be suspect for any grade higher. Big borders, tobacco stains, and used edges will become the premium cards for cards in the future.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by raulus

I’ve read several of the blowout posts, so I have a pretty good grasp on the situation, although it’s been a hot minute since the last time I last dug into a post.

I certainly fear that there’s a distinct possibility that some of my pieces might be doctored, although in the absence of more specific knowledge, it’s hard to know which pieces might be suspicious or worthy of further investigation, other than the higher value ones are naturally more likely to be tempting to a doctor who might take a former mid grade piece and transform it into a higher grade piece.

Figured I would catch up on some of the BO threads on card altering and a post that was tonight will definitely interest you.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=8105

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Figured I would catch up on some of the BO threads on card altering and a post that was tonight will definitely interest you.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=8105

That was pretty lame of corndog to do this. Zero evidence of Raulus's card having actually been altered, but he posts it anyway? This is precisely the kind of stuff that causes people to roll their eyes at BODA. At some point, these guys will jump the shark for everyone. For me, it happened a long time ago. Perhaps for others, this post did the trick.

Note, the timing was not coincidental. This was a personal attack for reasons I don't know.

[Johnny630]

Think about it this way...people with a lot of money whom are registry guys that are chasing that 9 or 10 for their registry set, some guys want to be or got to be number one, big wallets sometimes equate to big big egos. I hate to say this but I know a few that do not care if a card has been deemed altered by BOA or not if it's there and they can buy it and it will boost them up on the registry it's theirs, it does not bother them. I have also heard from one gentleman whom is high up on the registry that he feels that as long as PSA still has an active cert on his card it's good regardless of what BOA or whomever says. He said that blowout is just jealous they cant own 9's 10's in the 30-50's like he can. Ego's and Money is what really kicked this Hobby into a new gear. Right, Wrong or Indifferent it's just the way it is.

I hate that these cards and guys get away with trimming and adding color but it is what it is.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Figured I would catch up on some of the BO threads on card altering and a post that was tonight will definitely interest you.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=8105

Maybe the post changed since it went up? I'm just seeing a helpful post to encourage us all to check our cards against the database.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by raulus

Maybe the post changed since it went up? I'm just seeing a helpful post to encourage us all to check our cards against the database.

You can see he edited it at 4:58 AM....early riser and all...

As for the subject, if you buy an old vintage card in a 7 or above, you better do some due dillegence first.

This is also why I focus on lower grade cards with unusally big borders. There is less of a chance of trimming.

This card isn't trimmed, and to me, looks like a card should look from over 100 yrs ago....



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