T206 Set in Mile High

[lowpopper]

http://www.milehighcardco.com/1909_1...-LOT82912.aspx


Asking the T206 pros... how would you calculate the value of the entire set without having to add up every single card?

If you are a seasoned vet, let's hear some estimates!

[Rhotchkiss]

The T206 set is 520 cards, all PSA graded with an average grade of 4.4.

First thing I would do is go to VCP and search the T206 set with common backs. According to VCP, the set in a PSA 4 (based off most recent sales of 520 cards) is $267,820. Then I run the same search but in a PSA 5, which gives us $486,747, but we need to reduce that by $119k to attribute for the Plank, so the revised PSA 5 value would be about $367k.

Considering things are moving so fast, making a number of VCP comps no longer accurate, I would tend to lean more to the PSA 5 set value in VCP, even though the average grade is 4.4.

Next I would look at the grades of the key cards and adjust accordingly (the Green Cobb is a 3, the red a 5, the batting a 3.5 and the bat on a 3, with the Cy Youngs in a 5, 4.5, 4, the Johnsons in 5s, etc). Bottom line, I do not think the HOFers are generally 5's and probably average closer to a 4, especially with two main Cobbs be a 3 and 3.5, respectively. So I would probably doc the value about $30k, getting me to a rough value of about $340k.

Then, of course, there is some value to being able to buy a complete, 520 card set, already all graded by PSA and currently on the registry, and I think this value offsets the downward adjustment just made because of the HOFers.

Thus, I would roughly put the value of the set at $370k -- at least that's the over/under and I would expect it will sell within 10% (above or below) of that amount, so $330k - $400k.

The set is at $319k, including buyer's premium, at the time of this post.

BTW - In July of 2020, I bought a 513-card registry set with an average grade of 5.76, albeit missing a few key HOF cards, like a green cobb and cobb bat on, for $310k, all in. I see that comp as supporting the conclusion that the Mile High set will likely fall within the range set forth above, maybe on the higher end.

BTW +1 -- The Mile High T206 set is totally awesome and whoever gets it should be totally psyched. It will be worth double in 5 years. Grading fees on that set alone is likely worth 10% of the final hammer price

[atx840]

Fantastic input Ryan!

[mrreality68]

Great insight from a pro and great breakdown

Now let’s see where the hammer falls


And equally amazing is the Doyle is already at $639k with the buyers premium with some time to go.

[lowpopper]

thanks rich. this is exactly what i was looking for

[ALBB]

I tend to think it will go closer to 450

[trambo]

Ryan is on point. I valued it and think the break value is around $280. I didn't account for backs or adjust values really but was curious as to how an average card in the set would trade. My guess before it started is in the $350-$400k range as I think a t206 520 will command a premium for those who actually want to buy one w/o building it.

We'll see how it lands and I'm sure many people on this board are interested there!

[Rhotchkiss]

Currently a hair under $379k w/ BP, ten minutes into extended bidding

[Casey2296]

I love this sub, the experience and knowledge from members is priceless.

[Rhotchkiss]

Closed at just under $391k with buyers premium. Strong

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Closed at just under $391k with buyers premium. Strong

Good call Ryan, your estimate was pretty much right on the money!

[atx840]

Fantastic pickup for the winner! Great call on the value Ryan.

[JimC]

Speaking of strong, how bout that Doyle?

[babraham]

Originally Posted by JimC

Speaking of strong, how bout that Doyle?

Right!?

And the Charlie Sheen Wagner and the PSA Auth Plank.
Great auction for a T206 fan.
It was fun to watch at least, since I'm certainly not a bidder at those prices.

[Rhotchkiss]

I have a spreadsheet I created about 5 years ago that I use for every auction. This spreadsheet tracks the current price and next bid of cards I want in active auctions and also estimates/values what I think the card is “worth”. I prioritize, using colors, the “must haves” (bold green) and the “really wants” (lighter green) from the balance of the cards I am following on the spreadsheet. As the auction goes on, I color code each card on the spreadsheet - green means under priced, blue means within 10% (higher or lower) of my estimated value, and red means more than 10% of my estimated value. The idea is that I should go after the cards I have highlighted in green, whose values are reflected in green or blue; this would ensure that I don’t overpay.

Well, in the last two years, a few things have happened: (1) almost every card becomes red and sells for 10%+ more than I valued it, and (2) I no longer look for well-priced cards, but rather just chase the ones I really want no matter price, unless/until they get stupid expensive and I walk.

My point is, I used to be pretty good at valuing cards. In the last two years, however, I have not been good at all!! I got lucky valuing the t206 set- it is a rare time an old method worked in this crazy market!

Honestly, I am not surprised by the Wagner or Plank. Wagner will only continue to go up - it is the ultimate trading card and it transcends the hobby. The Doyle, which is beyond rare (I think only 9 known, and one is in a museum), is the key to a 524-card t206 set. You simply must have it if you want to complete the most iconic trading card set of all time.

The Plank, however…. Wow!!! Looks like Plank is now a minimum $100k card. I think it deserves to be, but I am a t206 junky so biased.

T206 kicked serious butt last night and Brian/Mile High should be very proud bc they just shattered records for t206

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I have a spreadsheet I created about 5 years ago that I use for every auction. This spreadsheet tracks the current price and next bid of cards I want in active auctions and also estimates/values what I think the card is “worth”. I prioritize, using colors, the “must haves” (bold green) and the “really wants” (lighter green) from the balance of the cards I am following on the spreadsheet. As the auction goes on, I color code each card on the spreadsheet - green means under priced, blue means within 10% (higher or lower) of my estimated value, and red means more than 10% of my estimated value. The idea is that I should go after the cards I have highlighted in green, whose values are reflected in green or blue; this would ensure that I don’t overpay.

Well, in the last two years, a few things have happened: (1) almost every card becomes red and sells for 10%+ more than I valued it, and (2) I no longer look for well-priced cards, but rather just chase the ones I really want no matter price, unless/until they get stupid expensive and I walk.

My point is, I used to be pretty good at valuing cards. In the last two years, however, I have not been good at all!! I got lucky valuing the t206 set- it is a rare time an old method worked in this crazy market!

Honestly, I am not surprised by the Wagner or Plank. Wagner will only continue to go up - it is the ultimate trading card and it transcends the hobby. The Doyle, which is beyond rare (I think only 9 known, and one is in a museum), is the key to a 524-card t206 set. You simply must have it if you want to complete the most iconic trading card set of all time.

The Plank, however…. Wow!!! Looks like Plank is now a minimum $100k card. I think it deserves to be, but I am a t206 junky so biased.

T206 kicked serious butt last night and Brian/Mile High should be very proud bc they just shattered records for t206

well said and those were super strong prices at the auction even the 1915 CJ Joe Jackson 3 going for over $75K. Thought those types of prices were only for the 1914's.

[chriskim]

Cant wait to see the 3rd t206 "player" that reach $1M mark. It should either be a high grade Plank or Ty Cobb back.

[babraham]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

well said and those were super strong prices at the auction even the 1915 CJ Joe Jackson 3 going for over $75K. Thought those types of prices were only for the 1914's.

Yes, I was going to say the same thing. I was bidding on the CJ Jackson but then it went way high in extended bidding.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by chriskim

Cant wait to see the 3rd t206 "player" that reach $1M mark. It should either be a high grade Plank or Ty Cobb back.

Didn't one of the Lucky 7 Cobb back cards sell for over a million dollars?

[Jdoggs]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Closed at just under $391k with buyers premium. Strong

Your collection is amazing do you plan to one day display it at the National or other event?
If not safe and safe deposit box is good and can view on flickr.

[Madi$on18joshua]

[AMAZING!!! you nailed it!!!! I just set an reminder for 5 years from now! I wonder if you get that correct too!

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Jdoggs

Your collection is amazing do you plan to one day display it at the National or other event?
If not safe and safe deposit box is good and can view on flickr.

Thank you! No plans to display it, although that would be fun.

[mrvster]

Agreed!!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by babraham

Yes, I was going to say the same thing. I was bidding on the CJ Jackson but then it went way high in extended bidding.

Everything went high! It's hard to pay 4k for something when 3 yrs ago it was 500 dollars....
.