Honus Wagner t206 in Goldin tomorrow (6/21/25) - what will it sell for?
 

My guess is a cool $6m.

And whoever buys it is a genius.

What are your guesses?

3 million 600 thousand is my guess. Yes it’s a Wagner but it’s in tough shape.

I believe it’s already at $4.1 with the buyers premium.

https://goldin.co/item/1909-11-t206-...JkSW5kZXgiOjB9

Images of front and back
 

Front

Back
 

Back

I'm not sure it matters what it looks like. It will be interesting to see where it lands. Maybe somewhere around 5M? Could be more, could be less...

Really great registration on this example.

It's so cool despite the flaws. I'm saying 5.2M to 6.2M. Best of luck to all involved.

Where is the big borders crowd on this one? Those borders look awfully thin to me!

For all it’s flaws it’s a beauty to me
And I think the go fund me page for Leon never happened
Sorry Leon you have to buy it on your own

Would give everything up for 1 but would still fall way way to short

6.6 million is my guess.

My guess is $5.5MM, based on last PSA 1 sale and forecasted CAGR since then.

Would you really give up everything in your collection for one card?

What does everyone think the reserve is? If it’s posted somewhere, I missed it.

Hi

I love my collection and I have been consolidating down for a few years to have fewer cards and higher quality/rarity.
But for the Holy Grail I would gladly trade/sell them all for 1.
But reality is will not happen because my cards may/may not have some value but no where close to what I would need
So I will just enjoy what I got and continue on my addiction (I mean mission) and enjoy my collection

As for the reserve I do not know how it works on Goldin. I like HA Where it tells you the reserve 3 days before.

People act like this sale is somehow indicative of a healthy market for vintage. I don’t see it. Card is probably being bought by some well heeled investors group that doesn’t care much about the “asset” they are buying. Just confident they can turn a profit when they sell it in a few years. Goldin has clearly corners the market on well heeled investors.

No sale. Top bid of $4.15 million. What does Ken Goldin blame it on? Fanatics Fest? Bombing of Iran?

I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't get why this was ever expected to be a $ 5-6 MM card.

That situation at the top border could've easily tipped it from barely a PSA 1 to an A. And then 4.15 million would've seemed like a healthy enough bid.

So this doesn't seem like anything wrong with the marketplace. More like a typical buy the card, not the grade.

4 million plus seems like a solid price to pay for a 1...this coming from someone who is not in the market for one. Most bidders do not love the concept of a reserve, hidden or otherwise. And while I get that the consignor preferred one be used, they might have cost themselves a sale unless of course they told Ken, I need X mil or I am not a seller.

One has to wonder if the top bids were even from the public or internal bids trying to get action on the card and to drive it to where the reserve was met.

Sale or no sale it was good PR for the house.

Ryan’s card, Ryan’s choice. If it goes up from here it was a good decision, if not it wasn’t.

I agree each consignor has a right to do reserve if they choose or “let it ride”.

Especially the higher the value of the card the higher risk/reward.

Amazing what the bidding was without a winner.

And I am sure when and if he decides to sell at auction or in private he will get what he is asking price wait until he gets it

All the other Wagners were strong prices

Does anyone know how Goldin treats reserves? I know some auction houses bid against reserves and some just take the bid to one increment below the reserve so that the next bid exceeds it. I assume that also some auction houses do nothing and just see if the final bid exceeds the reserve.

In their terms and conditions they state that they may bid an item up to just under the reserve.

"vii. Goldin may place bids below the reserve on behalf of the Seller, either consecutively or in response to other bids."

Then do we know if the bid at $4.15 million was a house bid or a third party bidder?

Not since I have been in the hobby has a Wagner gone down but not sure what up from here means. This is a DNS so not sure up or down from here is relevant.

Since GA can bid up to the reserve how many bids did they place and odds are that the high bid was theirs.

Did Goldin state while bidding that the auction had a reserve or was it a silent reserve? If it was a silent reserve and they can bid against it then that is some fishy ass shit. In my opinion at least.

We don't.

It doesn’t make a difference if it was the AH placing the highest bid or another bidder, all that matters is that if the AH was involved at all, who knows if a second real bidder ever even entered the picture so either way the high bid wouldn’t even exist because the sole real bidder wouldn’t be bidding against themself. Even if the AH was not involved at all and never placed a bid, all it takes is a “hobby friend” to get involved and the end result is the same. The best way to avoid this whole scenario is for the AH to not allow reserves and every card simply goes to the highest bidder. The idea that a consignor has the safety net of a reserve or hidden reserve so they don’t have to sell their card if they are not happy with the price defeats the whole purpose of an auction. Then sell your card with a Buy It Now price. Why be given the best of both worlds, make sure you don’t leave any money on the table using a fixed price sale while not having the risk of receiving a disappointing price at auction, whichever works out better for you. Because, to get a high-end card like this, AH’s will fall all over themselves and do ANYTHING to get the consignment. A lot of competition out there you know.

So the bottom like is that with all the oooohing and aaahing the past few weeks about amazing sky high bids …… none of us have any clue how many of them were placed on behalf of the consignor. Lovely. But please keep expressing your amazement at the bids.

Since it didn't reach the reserve it is likely to have been a house bid.

But the bid before that would have been someone’s that then would have triggered the house bid correct?

If only there was an auction company that did business this way...

Of course that's an easier attitude to have when your big items are around $50k, but we won't change that policy just to get into the "big time."

I think they can all be AH bids.

Their terms and conditions specifically mention that they can post consecutive bids. It's possible, though unlikely, that there were no real bids at all!

Considering that the card only goes up from past valuations, I guess it's safe to say that it will fare better in the future. It's a pretty nice item to have to hang on to for a bit longer.

Like any other asset--it only goes up till it doesn't.

Did it go up in a no sale? I would maintain it did not, especially not knowing what the highest binding bid was.

My card. I was only willing to sell it if I got my price, thus the reserve. My contract reserve was substantially higher than where it ended. We discussed at length whether we start the auction at my reserve or whether we run a process, etc. Ultimately, we decided to start the bidding at $2mm.

I think Goldin did an amazing job marketing the card. In the end, the card is not yet worth what I am willing to part with it at. I don’t intend to comment further.

+1 Great Card!

Agree with you. Minimum bid at the lowest price you would accept is the way to go. Nobody can question anything then. To the contrary, I’ve never seen a sports AH start an auction with a minimum bid as high as yours would have been. They will always sell the point that it is better to get multiple bidders involved. Thus, the door is wide open then for any type of manipulation that can possibly happen.

One question, do we know definitively whether VCP picks up that auction result in their data. Maybe Bobby can answer that?

They shouldn't--the number is meaningless

When you have this level of the card, there is only a slim, slim base of actual potential buyers who can and would want to spend that kind of money on an asset that is not as easily liquid at a price and time said wealthy investors would want.

To me too risky to put this kind of money on said asset at this time with us equities and real estate potentially going lower in the upcoming couple of years.

Any bidding process that allows the AH the right to bid on the consignor's behalf, regardless of the reserve being disclosed at the outset of bidding, is an invitation for manipulation. Why? Because under such a system bidders have no way of knowing if any particular bid was placed by the AH on the consignor's behalf or was bid by a genuine third-party bidder prepared to purchase based on that hammer bid. Disclosure by the AH of any reserve can somewhat reduce the likelihood of future manipulation, at least at that price level where the reserve has been disclosed and reached, and the bidding has reached a level around what the market expected the item to fetch pre-bidding. However, even in that instance, a bidder would still run the risk that the only reason the reserve was reached was because a prior bid had been induced based on the false assumption by that bidder that he/she was bidding against a real third-party bidder and not the AH.

I respect the fact that you are not willing to sell until you reach your price. My issue is that you appear willing to sell only under a bidding system that allows the AH to manipulate the market to allow it to reach your price. Take the case at hand -- the just-completed Goldin auction. Suppose, say, your reserve was a hammer price of $5M, and, say further, that all bids in excess of $3M were placed by the AH, until the bidding reached $4.9M. And then, at that level, a bid was finally placed at $5M to take it to your $5M minimum, at which point the auction ended. How do we know the person who placed that $5M bid would have been willing to do so if he/she knew he/she was the only bidder above $3M? Humans bid in part based on their perception about what other bidders would be willing to pay. Yes, I get it the AH rules in the fine print disclose that AH bidding on the behalf of the consignor is allowed. But, as evidenced by the discussion in this thread alone, many bidders do not read/understand the full implications of what this means.

This practice of AH bidding is something I have been railing about for many years. IMO, it is nothing less than legalized fraud, rationalized that it is okay to con somebody as long as you give notice ahead of time (via the fine print in the AH rules) that you are trying to con him/her.

In outlining all of this I am not saying you are bad person, or did anything (i) AHs do not encourage or (ii) that the great majority of potential consignors would not be willing to do. But to me the system stinks and should be changed.

1. Read the rules before creating an account
2. Read the rules before placing a bid
3. Only bid what you’re actually willing to pay
4. Never forget rules #1-3

This statement is incorrect. I did not use Goldin bc of their “bidding system”. Indeed, that was not even a consideration for me. Rather, I used Goldin bc i have had a lot of success with them on prior sales (never a reserve), I knew Ken would market the heck out of it (and he did), and because Joe is a friend and I trust him. This is the only card I ever consigned with a reserve (to Goldin or anyone), and bottom line is the card is not yet worth what I need to part with it.

Isn't this how most of the major auction houses conduct their auctions in regards to reserves? Sotheby's, Christie's, Bonham's, collectible car auctions, etc?

FWIW, I think the consignor did right by his card. He entered the auction in earnest to find it a new home with someone whom valued it more than he did. That didn’t happen this time, so the card remains with the person whom values and cherishes it most.

Really, Rob? I’m not seeing many Net54’erd consigning vintage baseball cards to Sotheby’s, Christie’s, Bonham’s, etc. I couldn’t afford to pay the shipping cost alone in a Christie’s auction.

How is this any different from me just asking my best friend to push my card into the millions and stop just a dollar before the undeclared reserve price. Lets see if we can get someone in the hook and reel him in. No one would be defending that as ethical. Why is it any different if the auction house is doing it. I’d say it’s even worse.

Even though it says in the fine print that this could happen, me as the bidder of course has no idea whether or not it’s a legitimate bidder on the other end.

I would think any bid on an auction that is not intended in good faith to win an item is a fraudulent bid.

I believe that this is the way that some auction houses in our hobby do it too, such as Mile High Card Company, SCP, etc.

I am not saying that I like this method, but it seems to be very common within the auction business and the norm with the big international houses. It not like Goldin is alone.

I think all auction house bids should show up as such in a bid history.

Not much difference, in terms of the impact but in one case the house is telling you that is what is happening and in the other it lacks the disclosure. In my opinion there is a lot of both instances going on in these auctions. Know what you want to pay and be willing to walk away empty handed.

Your own words -- "We discussed at length whether we start the auction at my reserve or whether we run a process, etc."

The "process" here I would characterize as market manipulation. None of this would be the case if you started at your reserve as you had the option to do. Ken advised you correctly. The process, which, yes, many AHs employ, is intended to induce third-party bids that were made only because of the belief the prior bid was a "real" (i.e,, not AH bid). So, you stood a better chance of realizing your minimum sell price by this method than by simply starting at your reserve.

I take you at your word that you did not use Goldin because they employ such a bidding system. As noted, many other AHs employ the same system. The question is the next time you look to sell it, assuming you sell it at auction, will you be willing to either sell with an AH that does not bid on the behalf of the consignor, or in the alternative start the bidding at your reserve price?

Not much experience myself with big AH’s but im lil bit shocked at this and it doesn’t sit right with me .

As for the auction results that too has me a bit shocked! When was the last time a T206 Wagner did not sell ? What happened here seems like a big “L”


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It would also be cool to know how much it costs to put a reserve on a card like that. It sure couldn't have been free to run the auction and not sell it.

A card like that brings eyes to an auction even if it doesn't sell. Most auction houses would pay to have it in their auction.

Enough said.

100%

Great question Ben. In this case, Goldin charged me nothing to put a reserve, which is another reason I went with them. As mentioned, there was no way I was letting this go unless I got my number, so I would not consign without a reserve. This is the first time I ever put a reserve on a consignment, so I do not have a ton of experience on the matter. It is my understanding that some AHs charge the consignor the BP on the reserve amount if the card is not sold, some AHs charge a fee, some AHs do not allow reserves, and some allow them without a charge; I expect its all part of each consignment negotiation.

Corey, I will 100% consign to Goldin again, but I expect this is the last and only card I put a reserve on. I will also bid with Goldin -- I know what I am willing to pay and I will bid to that point. That said, I too do not like when the AH can place house bids. I think that sucks. Many/most AHs have the right to do this and I expect many do.

For the Mona Lisa (Honus) the auction houses should pay the consigner virtually ALL of the buyer’s fee (if not more!!!!). It’s the best advertising an auction house can get.

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Ryan, do you anticipate any traction for a potential private sale because of this? I would think once the market knows a Wagner is available that it would generate some private discussion. Is there a lock out period where you would have to compensate Goldin if sold privately?
You don’t have to answer but am curious how that would go.

The good news is you get to enjoy your Wagner a bit longer.
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Correct. This environment must definitely affected the price.

Has there ever been such a high profile card up for "auction" at the major houses (where the reality was much closer to an overpriced BIN situation, so it didn't come close to selling?)

Hope this never becomes more of a norm. Not a good look for the industry.

REA Baltimore News Ruth last year

I thought that sold - could be wrong

No lock out period and I dont know who any of the bidders were. The card is always for sale, if I get my number. However, considering Goldin marketed the heck out of it and it did not get my number, I doubt someone will now pay privately what it didn't sell for publicly. As an aside, my number was, I thought, strong but reasonable. Indeed, all but one of the predictions earlier in this thread are above (or around) my contract reserve.

I appreciate you openness in answering questions about this auction.

It did. I don't know what Baltimore News Ruth he's referring to.

My mistake. I was thinking about the Dunn from the same set that didn’t sell.

Manipulation is a really loaded concept. It implies some sort of nefarious act. i don't think that's right. Goldin did nothing wrong. With respect to reserves, Goldin's rules are crystal clear on the point:

"All lots have a minimum bid designated in the catalog and the on-line listing. Certain lots may also have a reserve, which is the confidential price below which the lot will not be sold. The reserve may be greater than the minimum bid. At 10 p.m. eastern time on the day before the auction is set to close, a lot which has an unmet reserve will state “reserve not met’ in the individual lot page online. If the bidding does not meet the reserve at the close of the auction, the lot will be designated as “a pass, reserve not met".

If reserves are legal and the AH follows the law, it is fair, just part of the business. Nothing to see here, folks.

Also, not everything has to be an outright sale to be useful. We've learned that there is a ceiling on what a Wagner will bring in rough condition.

Curious what others think about the impact the reserve might have had on bidding activity for this piece.

My experience has been that a reserve will tend to have a chilling effect on the end of the auction. Once bidders see a reserve is in place, they have a tendency to give up, probably assuming that the reserve will not be met, so there’s no point in continuing to bid.

I’ve seen similar situations where the exact same card at the exact same auction house failed to meet the reserve at $200k, and then a month later sold for $400k with no reserve, simply because the action on the last day was so fast and furious with no reserve, and died with the reserve in place. And no, there wasn’t any big economic change in the interim, where we went from being fearful to being greedy within that window. So the economy can’t be the answer. And the 1-month interlude also wasn’t during the COVID frenzy where everything doubled every month.

All of which is a long way of wondering whether Ryan might have gotten his desired price without the reserve. Naturally, we’ll never know for sure. But it’s an interesting thought exercise, as well as a fascinating aspect of how bidders approach auctions.

Here's a complex, detailed analysis of your well-stated opinion there:

I totally agree! :cool:

I would add that auction format works well because the bidders feel like they are the ones who are determining price. When there is a reserve, I think psychologically, they feel there is no deal to be had and they are not the ones determining the price paid.

I understand why it was used or is used but I think it tends to limit what people will otherwise end up bidding, almost making certain the item does not sell. May as well be a store listing on eBay that sits for eternity.

No one was saying that the use of a reserve is market manipulation or something nefarious. It's clear that the discontent is mostly about the shill bidding that might be correlated to it.

And no, we haven't learned what the ceiling on that Wagner might be (given the points that Raulus and Lorewalker just brought up)

Bingo. I think we are foolish to assume this card would always go up.