A Mantle Price Bubble?

[Delray Vintage]

I have seen 1952 Topps prices double in the past 5 years. I am the beneficiary since I have a PSA 6 which I bought for 18k. I am just wondering why this dramatic rise? I know it is always supply and demand. It seems collectors are holding them, as the REA auction did not have a quality mantle for sale this year. The 51 Bowman PSA 8 is going crazy at Memory Lane. Is this just all those wealthy Yankee fans who must have the early Mantles? Just wondering what you guys think. Will the bubble burst or will price rises continue at higher grades?

Bob

[ALR-bishop]

Bob--beyond the current supply versus demand for the card you mentioned, I do not know what else would be causing the increases you noted. I am not a Yankees fan ( a Cardinals guy) but I have 2 of them, a function of my compulsion to include all recognized variations with all my Topps sets.

There have been several recent thread in here with folks stating their intention to pursue this card. If you are a post war collector in general this seems to be the most "got to have it" card, and there seem to be a lot of 52 set collectors as well

[MattyC]

Good topic. I believe there is no "bubble," when it comes to 51B and 52T Mantles. Simply put, these are two of the most widely desired cards in the hobby, and they also both happen to be incredibly hard to find with great eye appeal.

Someone who has managed to get their hands on a really nice eye appealing 52T or 51B Mantle tends to know how special and desirable a card they have, and it tends to be a cherished piece that will only sell in crisis, death, or when exiting the hobby altogether.

By almost anyone's measure, even when including pre-war cards, the 52T Mantle is likely the #2 or #3 card in the hobby (for example, PSA ranks it #2, one spot after the Wagner and one before the Ruth RC).

Also, as collectors who were young boys in the mid 1980's-- when the 52T card was cementing its iconic status-- enter their prime earning years, they are seeking to obtain it. So we are seeing a fresh new wave of buyer join the men in their 50s, 60s, and 70s who desire the card.

I think the 52T Mantle has appeal that goes way beyond the Yankee fan base; it is perhaps the most recognizable card in the hobby, the one even non collectors have seen. It is basically the standard-bearer of cards.

I also think the prices of truly elite eye-appealling 51B and 52T Mantles will continue to surge. If a dead centered, solid blue background PSA 6 #311 shows up, I believe it will sail pass 50k at auction. Essentially, those without one want one, and those with a decent one dream of having a really nice one. Who knows what any mid-grade 51B with perfect centering and no vertical lines would fetch at auction.

The demand for the #311 card in particular is just enormous, end of the day. Between Mantle collectors, HOF player collectors, 52 Topps Set collectors, Top Sportscard collectors, and random collectors in between, it's a card on everyone's list. And if one has it, it's probably the last one they'd sell in an emergency.

[bn2cardz]

As someone that thinks it is way too overvalued now and has no intentions of getting one (at least prior to a 51 Bowman) I do think it is a bubble. Too many people are stretching themselves thin to get one and as people need funds to buy a house or pay medical bills it will be the first one to be sold and there are an abundance of them out there.

[MattyC]

If these hypothetical owners do sell them, there will be plenty of people (like myself) ready to buy them and hold them for long periods of time. And if people do sell, by the same logic there will be a waiting and hungry group of buyers (be they stretching themselves too thin or be they wealthy) ready to bid competitively on the card. So the mere act of anyone selling in no way ensures a drop in price. Unless, of course, all these hypothetical broke owners somehow go bust on the same day. And even then, the amount of ready buyers would support or drive up the price. Look what happened with a much, much less desired item: the 1975 Mini unopened hoard that flooded the market via REA years ago. Prices dropped for a moment, and now boxes have doubled since then.

No one has a crystal ball so there's no right answer here, but just curious, how can any of us know the specific financial situation of buyers? How can anyone tell if buyers of this card are "stretching themselves too thin?" Most guys I know who have one are quite solvent. Then we have guys like Bill and my brother in other threads, who are prudently saving up.

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Too many people are stretching themselves thin to get one...

This seems like quite an assumption, unless one has financial records of various buyers. I certainly haven't seen many great looking, centered examples of the #311 card being offered up by owners in recent years, who have gone bust to pay bills and now need money. Most of what is auctioned are the standard, tilted or OC or background-issue plagued examples.

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

...it will be the first one to be sold...

This statement also seems to presume what collectors have in their collections; one could just as easily take the counterpoint, that the #311 would be the last card a collector would sell. This would be in keeping with the safe bet that it is a collector's centerpiece. A collector may choose to sell all his "satellite" pieces well before parting with the heart of his collection.

Also, I always have had a problem with the notion of a collectible being "overvalued." People are paying what they are paying. These are the prices the card costs now. In the present, in this moment, each individual #311 is neither under nor overvalued. There is just simply what an owner paid. Now, some may think prices will go up, or will go down. But then we have to deal with the fact that because these are cards, each individual #311 is unique. It is always strikes me as folly when people try to codify or generalize the card market, or the market for all examples of a certain card. Cards aren't exactly like stocks or real estate. Because each #311 is unique despite a TPG sticker, each example will be more or less desirable to certain buyers.

Many variables can seemingly point to a downturn in one instant, with an ugly #311 selling for less than the previous sale, then the very next day a gorgeous example can surface and shatter the last sale. In this instance, is the card going up or down?

The answer is that it is all about the specific example of the card in question. One cannot group OC #311s or beaten-up, heavily creased #311s and the elite #311s, which are quite rare-- especially relative to demand. There is definitely not an abundance of elite, eye-appealing #311s out there. Middling examples I would agree are much more readily available

[Sean1125]

I don't think anyone should ever put "Mickey Mantle" and "overvalued" in the same sentence unless the words "will not ever be" are in between them.

Sean

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Sean1125

I don't think anyone should ever put "Mickey Mantle" and "overvalued" in the same sentence unless the words "will not ever be" are in between them.

Sean

Mickey Mantle is overvalued. His numbers in baseball don't equate to his value in cards. If his aren't overvalued then every other player has undervalued cards.

Don't believe me just compare his numbers to Musial or even better Mays.

Mays:
Black Ink Batting - 57 (21), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 337 (8), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 376 (5), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 76 (2), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (1st), 156.2 career WAR/73.7 7yr-peak WAR/115.0 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

Mantle:
Black Ink Batting - 62 (15), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 272 (17), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 300 (15), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 65 (22), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (4th), 109.7 career WAR/64.7 7yr-peak WAR/87.2 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by MattyC

No one has a crystal ball.

Right, that is why I said "I do think it is a bubble", instead of " I know...".

Originally Posted by MattyC

But just curious, how can any of us know the specific financial situation of buyers? How can anyone tell if buyers of this card are "stretching themselves too thin?" Most guys I know who have one are quite solvent. Then we have guys like Bill and my brother in other threads, who are prudently saving up.

This seems like quite an assumption.

It is an assumption.

It is an assumption based on the psychology of people "keeping up with the Joneses". What I mean by stretching "themselves too thin" is by not being diversified, this one card can end up being worth more than someone's car or a year's worth of rent/mortgage payment, or aprox 2 months salary (based off $8k for mantle to the 2012 medium household income). So if this is over 10% of someone's total assets and an emergency comes up this card is going to be sold.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

What I mean by stretching "themselves too thin" is by not being diversified, this one card can end up being worth more than someone's car or a year's worth of rent/mortgage payment, or aprox 2 months salary (based off $8k for mantle to the 2012 medium household income). So if this is over 10% of someone's total assets and an emergency comes up this card is going to be sold.

So is your assumption that the majority of owners of this card are people with median 2012 household income? That's where I guess I respectfully differ and see a fissure in the logic. I'd contend that the majority of owners of this card, especially the best-looking examples, are not going bust anytime soon. Also, by extension that same logic would apply to any card worth in excess of 8k. Above all, this hypothetical overextended collector may just as possibly have other cards to sell first.

I think the vast majority of the owners of this card or other $8k+ collectibles are "The Joneses," as opposed to those merely trying to keep up.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

As someone that thinks it is way too overvalued now and has no intentions of getting one (at least prior to a 51 Bowman) I do think it is a bubble. Too many people are stretching themselves thin to get one and as people need funds to buy a house or pay medical bills it will be the first one to be sold and there are an abundance of them out there.

I agree the allure of owning either one of these cards could spread somebody thin. That's what I am making sure I do not do. I have been working the last few months to rebuild my savings before I buy anything. I'm nearly at the point where I'm completely happy with that. Then, going forward, I'll add more to my savings, and budget a certain amount for my collection each month. I will be taking a set amount for Mick's '52 Topps card, putting that aside, and then working on all my other wants from whatever is left.

It might take me darned near forever to get it, but I think saving for it over time is the smart way to do it.

There's always going to be demand, but sometimes fortune favors not the bold, but those who are patient.

[Brianruns10]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

I have seen 1952 Topps prices double in the past 5 years. I am the beneficiary since I have a PSA 6 which I bought for 18k. I am just wondering why this dramatic rise? I know it is always supply and demand. It seems collectors are holding them, as the REA auction did not have a quality mantle for sale this year. The 51 Bowman PSA 8 is going crazy at Memory Lane. Is this just all those wealthy Yankee fans who must have the early Mantles? Just wondering what you guys think. Will the bubble burst or will price rises continue at higher grades?

Bob

Logically one would think the Mantle shouldn't be so expensive. It was a double print. The Eddie Matthews is far, far scarcer, yet worth only a fraction.

The key to remember is that the Mantle transcends the hobby. It's a symbol of value and rarity. It's an American icon, right up there with Coca Cola and Norman Rockwell. There are many who seek this card for its notoriety, and as an investment.

So while the card has a larger population relative to other high numbers in the 52 series, there is also a much larger group of people who want it, to the exclusion of the other cards in the set. Some might buy the Mantle and nothing else, just to say they've got one. So the ratio of available Mantles to interested buyers is significant, hence the higher price.

[MattyC]

Two quick anecdotes...

So one time a few years back I was in the office of a big baller, pitching for a project. Somehow we got around to our mutual love of baseball. I mentioned I collected cards. His response: "One day I'm going to get myself a 52 Mantle."

I was just in Las Vegas, at a restaurant bar with some friends. I had a picture of the 52 Mick on my phone, and some guys a few feet over warmly commented, "Hey! It's The Mick!" I asked them if they collected cards. One's response: "No, but I remember that card from when I was a kid. That's the famous one."

[Brianruns10]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Two quick anecdotes...

So one time a few years back I was in the office of a big baller, pitching for a project. Somehow we got around to our mutual love of baseball. I mentioned I collected cards. His response: "One day I'm going to get myself a 52 Mantle."

I was just in Las Vegas, at a restaurant bar with some friends. I had a picture of the 52 Mick on my phone, and some guys a few feet over warmly commented, "Hey! It's The Mick!" I asked them if they collected cards. One's response: "No, but I remember that card from when I was a kid. That's the famous one."

Exactly. I'd wager more people than not, if shown that card, would know that it's the valuable one.