A Mantle Price Bubble?

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by MattyC

No one has a crystal ball.

Right, that is why I said "I do think it is a bubble", instead of " I know...".

Originally Posted by MattyC

But just curious, how can any of us know the specific financial situation of buyers? How can anyone tell if buyers of this card are "stretching themselves too thin?" Most guys I know who have one are quite solvent. Then we have guys like Bill and my brother in other threads, who are prudently saving up.

This seems like quite an assumption.

It is an assumption.

It is an assumption based on the psychology of people "keeping up with the Joneses". What I mean by stretching "themselves too thin" is by not being diversified, this one card can end up being worth more than someone's car or a year's worth of rent/mortgage payment, or aprox 2 months salary (based off $8k for mantle to the 2012 medium household income). So if this is over 10% of someone's total assets and an emergency comes up this card is going to be sold.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

What I mean by stretching "themselves too thin" is by not being diversified, this one card can end up being worth more than someone's car or a year's worth of rent/mortgage payment, or aprox 2 months salary (based off $8k for mantle to the 2012 medium household income). So if this is over 10% of someone's total assets and an emergency comes up this card is going to be sold.

So is your assumption that the majority of owners of this card are people with median 2012 household income? That's where I guess I respectfully differ and see a fissure in the logic. I'd contend that the majority of owners of this card, especially the best-looking examples, are not going bust anytime soon. Also, by extension that same logic would apply to any card worth in excess of 8k. Above all, this hypothetical overextended collector may just as possibly have other cards to sell first.

I think the vast majority of the owners of this card or other $8k+ collectibles are "The Joneses," as opposed to those merely trying to keep up.

[GregC]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think the vast majority of the owners of this card or other $8k+ collectibles are "The Joneses," as opposed to those merely trying to keep up.

First off, great topic. Matt, you really nailed every point I would have made both in regard to the reasoning behind the #311 climbing in value and the man himself.

I for one am after a #311 and just recently purchased a great 51B. Believe me, if I fall on hard times that 51 is the last to go. I'd likely sell my body before my Mick. I might even auction off my woman if I had to, my 51 is really well centered!

[Bestdj777]

I don't think the bubble will burst but I could see it leveling back out as the demand decreases again. I think a lot of the price increase recently had to do with the economy recovering a bit and the increase in discretionary funds.

For what it is worth, if I ever really needed the cash, my 52 Topps Mantles would likely be some of the first to go. They are expensive, but any time you want you can go on eBay and pick up a 51 Bowman or 52 Topps Mantle. Yes, you may have to wait for the perfect eye appeal (if that is your thing) or price, but you can find them. It could take a year plus to replace some of the other cards, if you are lucky...

[phabphour20]

Question for you guys... I got a lead on a '51B that is currently slabbed as a BVG 4. It has some of the best eye appeal I have seen on a 51B. Nicely centered, good color, etc. But it has a small crease about .5" in from the bottom right corner.

My buddy is asking $3500 which feels rich, but it is a really nice example of the card. Is BVG more lenient on creases than PSA? PSA says in a 4 that a "light crease may be visible." I prefer my cards in PSA holders for several reasons.

I feel like $2500 is the right price for this card, but then I am not sure what kind of premium to put on a centered card that gets dinged for a crease that, in my opinion, doesn't take away from the overall eye appeal of the card. I have always wanted one of these for my collection but don't want to overpay terribly in case I ever need the cash.

Any thoughts?

[MattyC]

Centered 5s have been changing hands in the 5k zone. I know two centered 4s that sold at 4k and 4250. One was my brother's posted around here somewhere, if you want to compare. Maybe it was March pickups? Or you can PM GregC for a scan of his 4. So 2500 would be along the lines of highway robbery if it had great centering and eye appeal, no vertical print lines. FWIW, I think your buddy's ask is on the money leaning toward generous assuming it crosses. If he's your homie, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and then establish a fair price based on where it ends up in a PSA slab, given your preference. I'd buy as many nice 4s at 2500 as were offered to me. At 3500 if you ever wanna sell a 4 that looks like GregC's for example, I will give you cash.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Centered 5s have been changing hands in the 5k zone. I know two centered 4s that sold at 4k and 4250. One was my brother's posted around here somewhere, if you want to compare. Maybe it was March pickups? Or you can PM GregC for a scan of his 4. So 2500 would be along the lines of highway robbery if it had great centering and eye appeal, no vertical print lines. FWIW, I think your buddy's ask is on the money leaning toward generous assuming it crosses. If he's your homie, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and then establish a fair price based on where it ends up in a PSA slab, given your preference. I'd buy as many nice 4s at 2500 as were offered to me. At 3500 if you ever wanna sell a 4 that looks like GregC's for example, I will give you cash.

I hear what you are saying for sure. I'm gonna meet up with him and look at it again today. Maybe I can work him down to $3k... I'll emphasize the crease...

$2500 is the price that makes me happy, but I know some times I need to get uncomfortable if I really want to own a beautiful card.

Maybe he'll let me photograph it and I can get some better advice.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by phabphour20

I hear what you are saying for sure. I'm gonna meet up with him and look at it again today. Maybe I can work him down to $3k... I'll emphasize the crease...

$2500 is the price that makes me happy, but I know some times I need to get uncomfortable if I really want to own a beautiful card.

Maybe he'll let me photograph it and I can get some better advice.

I agree, you will have to be prepared to go north of that comfort price; everyone would love to have a nice 4 for $2500, but that is just not a realistic expectation for the card in 4-grade. I hope you can get for that, it would be a deal for the ages. But even looking at VCP (while keeping in mind that many of the better examples I've seen have sold privately), the lowest sale on current record was $2639-- and it was for this pretty grotesque example below. For reference I've also attached pictures of all the other examples that sold between $2639 and $2950. All others have been over $3000. Given these facts, I can't fathom a nice 4 selling for anything below $3500. The seller could pretty easily get $4000 with some patience, if it's centered well...

As the scans below bear out, the PSA 4 51B Micks that sell below 3k tend to have extremely poor centering and focus.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I agree, you will have to be prepared to go north of that comfort price; everyone would love to have a nice 4 for $2500, but that is just not a realistic expectation for the card in 4-grade. I hope you can get for that, it would be a deal for the ages. But even looking at VCP (while keeping in mind that many of the better examples I've seen have sold privately), the lowest sale on current record was $2639-- and it was for this pretty grotesque example below. For reference I've also attached pictures of all the other examples that sold between $2639 and $2950. All others have been over $3000. Given these facts, I can't fathom a nice 4 selling for anything below $3500. The seller could pretty easily get $4000 with some patience, if it's centered well...

As the scans below bear out, the PSA 4 51B Micks that sell below 3k tend to have extremely poor centering and focus.

The pricing is a bit different for the BVG 4s than the PSA ones. If it were PSA I probably would have taken him out at 3250 already and called it a day. I am worried about the cross since it has a small crease. EDIT: I just checked the BVG data on VCP and the numbers are quite stale. Given the subject of this thread, I can probably assume $2600 would not be the average today...

But I just looked at it again... centered with no print lines. Just the crease taking away from it.

[GregC]

Here you go. I paid around $4k and still think it was a fair price. $3500 for a centered 51B, even one that crossed to a PSA 3 would be fair. Low and mid grade examples of this card rarely lack the dreaded vertical lines and almost always have major centering issues.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by GregC

Here you go. I paid around $4k and still think it was a fair price. $3500 for a centered 51B, even one that crossed to a PSA 3 would be fair. Low and mid grade examples of this card rarely lack the dreaded vertical lines and almost always have major centering issues.

That is beautiful. I'd basically be trading centering and photo quality for corners and the crease. Usually I am happy making that trade.

Anyone have a picture where the vertical lines are very pronounced? I find they sometimes don't come through in a scan.

Edit: These are really bad... eBay 51

[ALR-bishop]

Article is from 12-28-52 NYT