A Mantle Price Bubble?

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by phabphour20

I hear what you are saying for sure. I'm gonna meet up with him and look at it again today. Maybe I can work him down to $3k... I'll emphasize the crease...

$2500 is the price that makes me happy, but I know some times I need to get uncomfortable if I really want to own a beautiful card.

Maybe he'll let me photograph it and I can get some better advice.

I agree, you will have to be prepared to go north of that comfort price; everyone would love to have a nice 4 for $2500, but that is just not a realistic expectation for the card in 4-grade. I hope you can get for that, it would be a deal for the ages. But even looking at VCP (while keeping in mind that many of the better examples I've seen have sold privately), the lowest sale on current record was $2639-- and it was for this pretty grotesque example below. For reference I've also attached pictures of all the other examples that sold between $2639 and $2950. All others have been over $3000. Given these facts, I can't fathom a nice 4 selling for anything below $3500. The seller could pretty easily get $4000 with some patience, if it's centered well...

As the scans below bear out, the PSA 4 51B Micks that sell below 3k tend to have extremely poor centering and focus.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I agree, you will have to be prepared to go north of that comfort price; everyone would love to have a nice 4 for $2500, but that is just not a realistic expectation for the card in 4-grade. I hope you can get for that, it would be a deal for the ages. But even looking at VCP (while keeping in mind that many of the better examples I've seen have sold privately), the lowest sale on current record was $2639-- and it was for this pretty grotesque example below. For reference I've also attached pictures of all the other examples that sold between $2639 and $2950. All others have been over $3000. Given these facts, I can't fathom a nice 4 selling for anything below $3500. The seller could pretty easily get $4000 with some patience, if it's centered well...

As the scans below bear out, the PSA 4 51B Micks that sell below 3k tend to have extremely poor centering and focus.

The pricing is a bit different for the BVG 4s than the PSA ones. If it were PSA I probably would have taken him out at 3250 already and called it a day. I am worried about the cross since it has a small crease. EDIT: I just checked the BVG data on VCP and the numbers are quite stale. Given the subject of this thread, I can probably assume $2600 would not be the average today...

But I just looked at it again... centered with no print lines. Just the crease taking away from it.

[MattyC]

Sounds like it would land in a PSA 4. Maybe even 4.5 on a good day. Would have to see it. Again, if he's your buddy and you want certainty, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and go from there.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Sounds like it would land in a PSA 4. Maybe even 4.5 on a good day. Would have to see it. Again, if he's your buddy and you want certainty, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and go from there.

Yeah, not that good of a buddy... we've just done a lot of business together in the past.

He said he is very firm. I can think of better things to own right now, I'll probably move on.