Never Too Early to Check:

[KJA]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Next year is "the class without a new first ballot candidate" too, with Cole Hamels the closest thing to a HOFer who's appearing for the first time on the ballot. That should help anyone who's close. It wouldn't surprise me if both Beltran and Jones make it next year.

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by KJA

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

Based on how well Mauer did, I have to assume Posey goes first ballot, especially if Jones and Beltran get in in 2026.

As a Red Sox fan, I have a soft spot for Lester. Not sure he's a Hall of Fame starter, but I hope he hangs around the ballot a while and voters really think about his case.

[packs]

I agree. Posey and Mauer's fortunes were probably tied and with Mauer a first ballot I expect Posey to be as well:

[Mike D.]

Just had my look at the returning candidates publish:

Cardlines Guide To The Returning Candidates On The 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

[clydepepper]

I came up with 387 total ballots and 291 needed to be elected, but now, upon re-checking, there may be 391 total ballots (derived from .324/127)(pct. of total votes known/votes known)- in which case, 294 would get them in.


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[jayshum]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

I came up with 387 total ballots and 291 needed to be elected, but now, upon re-checking, there may be 391 total ballots (derived from .324/127)(pct. of total votes known/votes known)- in which case, 294 would get them in.


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The Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker site lists an estimate of 392 ballots with 294 needed for election. There's no way to know exactly how many ballots are actually returned until the results are released, but I think their estimate is usually pretty close.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by jayshum

The Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker site lists an estimate of 392 ballots with 294 needed for election. There's no way to know exactly how many ballots are actually returned until the results are released, but I think their estimate is usually pretty close.

Thanks...I see it now.

[KJA]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Based on how well Mauer did, I have to assume Posey goes first ballot, especially if Jones and Beltran get in in 2026.

As a Red Sox fan, I have a soft spot for Lester. Not sure he's a Hall of Fame starter, but I hope he hangs around the ballot a while and voters really think about his case.

Yeah I think Posey is first ballot. Lester will be interesting, his post season stats are good and he has spent a lot of time there. I think he hangs around on the ballot for sure like Buehrle has been doing.

[jayshum]

With a week to go until the official announcement, 38.5% of the votes have been counted. Right now, Ichiro and C.C. appear to be locks (Ichiro for sure).

Billy Wagner has picked up 8 votes from returning voters and lost none. Last year, he missed by 5 so as long as he doesn't lose any votes from anyone, he should just get in.

Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones have both picked up a number of votes while only losing a few, but it looks like they are both on pace to miss induction but by a smaller number than last year considering that the unreported voters usually end up bringing down the percentage for most candidates. It's possible either (or both) could just squeak in, but if I had to guess, I'd say neither will. With no real first ballot candidates next year, I think they both get in next year.

[Mike D.]

I still think he misses out, but with 146 ballots public (39.8%) Beltran ticks up to 80.1%. He could end up VERY close!

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I still think he misses out, but with 146 ballots public (39.8%) Beltran ticks up to 80.1%. He could end up VERY close!

Beltran is on pace to pick up about 50 votes, and last year he missed by 69. I agree that it will be close, but that's why I said in my previous post that I don't think he gets in this year.

[Seven]

While I always look forward to seeing the results from the tracker, The Hall of Fame has lost a lot of credibility in my eyes. Some of the greatest players to ever play the game are not in it.

And while I'm not condoning what players like Bonds and Clemens did, I think it's a bit hypocritical to have Bud Selig in the Hall of Fame. He certainly didn't care about them used PED's when it was generating millions upon millions of dollars for his team/the sport.

Furthermore if you draw the line at someone getting injected with a substance but condone someone as morally deplorable as Cap Anson has been allowed to stay in the Hall of Fame, then I really don't know what to say anymore.

[egri]

Originally Posted by KJA

Yeah I think Posey is first ballot. Lester will be interesting, his post season stats are good and he has spent a lot of time there. I think he hangs around on the ballot for sure like Buehrle has been doing.

Also a Sox fan with a soft spot for Lester. I don't think he gets in from the writers, I think he'll hang around on the ballot and the Veterans Committee (or whatever they're calling it these days) will ultimately put him in. His narrative (rookie season derailed by cancer, beats it, comes back the following year to win the clinching game of the World Series, throws a no-hitter the following year, then is a big part of the 'Boston Strong' team and the curse-breaking Cubs) will carry a lot more weight with them than the writers.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by egri

Also a Sox fan with a soft spot for Lester. I don't think he gets in from the writers, I think he'll hang around on the ballot and the Veterans Committee (or whatever they're calling it these days) will ultimately put him in. His narrative (rookie season derailed by cancer, beats it, comes back the following year to win the clinching game of the World Series, throws a no-hitter the following year, then is a big part of the 'Boston Strong' team and the curse-breaking Cubs) will carry a lot more weight with them than the writers.

Same situation as a Sox fan. The BBWAA voters are typically behind the times by about a decade and a half when it comes to pitchers...it'll be interesting to see what a Hall of Fame pitcher looks like after the last of the old(er) school guys like Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw retire and get elected.

[KJA]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Same situation as a Sox fan. The BBWAA voters are typically behind the times by about a decade and a half when it comes to pitchers...it'll be interesting to see what a Hall of Fame pitcher looks like after the last of the old(er) school guys like Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw retire and get elected.

Looking at the pitchers still going beyond those 3 and Greinke. I'm not even sure who goes in after them, I assume Gerritt Cole gets 200 wins, maybe gets 3000k's or gets close and maybe makes the HOF. Chris Sale maybe has a couple more good seasons and has a chance.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by KJA

Looking at the pitchers still going beyond those 3 and Greinke. I'm not even sure who goes in after them, I assume Gerritt Cole gets 200 wins, maybe gets 3000k's or gets close and maybe makes the HOF. Chris Sale maybe has a couple more good seasons and has a chance.

Yes, Cole and Sale are probably the two most likely. Maybe deGrom has a late-career string of health, but that feels unlikely. Beyond that is anyone's guess.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by KJA

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

If or when Posey gets in, there has to be a stronger effort to get Thurman Munson in.

(and Luis Tiant while we're at it!)

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