Never Too Early to Check:

Bored5000 · #1 12-30-2024, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayshum

Fellow Phillies fan here. Rollins looks like a better choice based on traditional stats while Utley looks better using more advanced stats. I agree with you that Utley has the better chance of getting elected, but it wouldn't surprise me if neither did.

I think Utley will get in over the coming years, just based on where his vote started and his momentum. I was surprised he was strong as he was in his first year on the ballot (28 percent) and he is at 47 percent right now in a year when four guys may be elected. The ballot will not always have so many guys will strong HoF cases.

By comparison, Rollins' HoF votes have barely moved. He started at nine percent in 2022, received 14 percent last year and is only at 16 percent this time around on the ballots so far.

Mike D. · #2 12-30-2024, 09:28 AM

One thing to remember is that the vote totals always end up lower, as those voters who don't publish their ballots tend to be the ones who also don't take things like modern statistics into consideration. If I recall, the drop is usually like 5-8%. So, all three of the "likely" candidates should still make it, but it's unlikely Beltran makes it, although he'll get upper 60's or maybe even 70%.

jayshum · #3 01-03-2025, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike D.

One thing to remember is that the vote totals always end up lower, as those voters who don't publish their ballots tend to be the ones who also don't take things like modern statistics into consideration. If I recall, the drop is usually like 5-8%. So, all three of the "likely" candidates should still make it, but it's unlikely Beltran makes it, although he'll get upper 60's or maybe even 70%.

Beltran has picked up 16 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year and only lost 1 so he's definitely trending in the right direction. If he doesn't get in this year, next year is definitely possible.

Mike D. · #4 01-04-2025, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayshum

Beltran has picked up 16 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year and only lost 1 so he's definitely trending in the right direction. If he doesn't get in this year, next year is definitely possible.

Next year is "the class without a new first ballot candidate" too, with Cole Hamels the closest thing to a HOFer who's appearing for the first time on the ballot. That should help anyone who's close. It wouldn't surprise me if both Beltran and Jones make it next year.

KJA · #5 01-07-2025, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Next year is "the class without a new first ballot candidate" too, with Cole Hamels the closest thing to a HOFer who's appearing for the first time on the ballot. That should help anyone who's close. It wouldn't surprise me if both Beltran and Jones make it next year.

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

Mike D. · #6 01-09-2025, 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KJA

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

Based on how well Mauer did, I have to assume Posey goes first ballot, especially if Jones and Beltran get in in 2026.

As a Red Sox fan, I have a soft spot for Lester. Not sure he's a Hall of Fame starter, but I hope he hangs around the ballot a while and voters really think about his case.

packs · #7 01-09-2025, 09:40 PM

I agree. Posey and Mauer's fortunes were probably tied and with Mauer a first ballot I expect Posey to be as well:

KJA · #8 01-12-2025, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Based on how well Mauer did, I have to assume Posey goes first ballot, especially if Jones and Beltran get in in 2026.

As a Red Sox fan, I have a soft spot for Lester. Not sure he's a Hall of Fame starter, but I hope he hangs around the ballot a while and voters really think about his case.

Yeah I think Posey is first ballot. Lester will be interesting, his post season stats are good and he has spent a lot of time there. I think he hangs around on the ballot for sure like Buehrle has been doing.

clydepepper · #9 01-18-2025, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KJA

Those no clear ballot classes are my favorite sometimes, just to see what holdovers can gain ground or get in. The 2027 class should be kind of interesting with Buster Posey as the top candidate followed by Jon Lester.

If or when Posey gets in, there has to be a stronger effort to get Thurman Munson in.

(and Luis Tiant while we're at it!)

.

jayshum · #10 01-03-2025, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bored5000

I think Utley will get in over the coming years, just based on where his vote started and his momentum. I was surprised he was strong as he was in his first year on the ballot (28 percent) and he is at 47 percent right now in a year when four guys may be elected. The ballot will not always have so many guys will strong HoF cases.

By comparison, Rollins' HoF votes have barely moved. He started at nine percent in 2022, received 14 percent last year and is only at 16 percent this time around on the ballots so far.

So far, Utley has picked up 10 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year, but he also lost 5 votes from people who did vote for him last year. For 2 of those voters, they voted for 10 others so Utley apparently got pushed out by some of the new choices such as Ichiro and C.C. However, the other 3 voted for less than 10 and decided to leave Utley off their ballots this year after voting for him last year. Seems strange.

Rollins has picked up 7 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year and hasn't lost any from people who did (so far). If that continues, his overall percent will climb a little, but he's still a long way from being voted in.

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