Card prices tipping point?

[skelly]

Fundamental problem with big shows is two fold for buyers- first off, the big dealers have spent lots of time / money to set up. Secondly, my guess is that 70-80% of the dealers don’t really need the money, it’s kinda a social thing with the other dealers. The smaller shows will sometimes find dealers who are more motivated to sell, especially if you are willing to spend a decent amount of money.
My biggest pet peeve is when dealers spend time looking up mainstream cards before quoting a price. I’m not using my phone before I throw out an offer… I don’t need a price on a dealers cards, but I do need a price quote in a reasonable amount of time.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Could be worse: there's one guy on ebay with a bunch of high grade T205s asking like 15-20x a reasonable market price for a lot of cards. Keep listing that PSA 5 Addie Joss with the 95K+ opening bid. One day inflation will catch up.

Lo and behold, the Joss is 30K cheaper today.

[Fred]

Bubble? Needle?

How are comps supposed to work?

Isn't it an average of the latest prices paid? I'm guessing someone can manipulate comps.

Does everyone "buy into" the comps? How do comps work when there are only a few items tracked and the last realized price was because two people bid up the price. Is that a "new" realistic comp?


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[raulus]

Originally Posted by Fred

Bubble? Needle?

How are comps supposed to work?

Isn't it an average of the latest prices paid? I'm guessing someone can manipulate comps.

Does everyone "buy into" the comps? How do comps work when there are only a few items tracked and the last realized price was because two people bid up the price. Is that a "new" realistic comp?


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I think most of us are pretty savvy here, at least in terms of recognizing that comps are an interesting starting point, but far from gospel.

As you noted, there are lots of reasons why comps might be sketchy, just because they're old, they're outliers, or there are very few (if any) data points. Not to mention that everyone always thinks that their PSA 7 is a lot nicer than the other PSA 7s that you're looking at for comps.

I think comps work great for commodity cards that trade all day every day in public places, at least to give you a nice range of values.

For anything that is rare and doesn't sell very often, comps are usually pretty meaningless. You can try to interpolate by looking at adjacent pieces, but often that's a pretty big guessing game as well. In those cases, you're really left with whatever price the buyer and seller decide works for them. It could take a long time before the seller finds a buyer who is willing to pay their asking price, and sometimes the market doesn't clear because the owner can never find someone willing to pay their price.

Or you could just put it up for auction and see what the bidders decide! Although even there, for rare items that are obscure and not currently in high demand, the price might not be all that representative, simply because a lot of the potential buyers might not really be paying attention.

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by Fred

Bubble? Needle?

How are comps supposed to work?

Isn't it an average of the latest prices paid? I'm guessing someone can manipulate comps.

Does everyone "buy into" the comps? How do comps work when there are only a few items tracked and the last realized price was because two people bid up the price. Is that a "new" realistic comp?


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See my previous post, #12.

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by Fred

Bubble? Needle?

How are comps supposed to work?

Isn't it an average of the latest prices paid? I'm guessing someone can manipulate comps.

Does everyone "buy into" the comps? How do comps work when there are only a few items tracked and the last realized price was because two people bid up the price. Is that a "new" realistic comp?


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Comps aren't flawless, but there's enough data on items that frequently change hands to show you whether a seller is reasonable, out of their mind, or somewhere in between.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Brent G.

Comps aren't flawless, but there's enough data on items that frequently change hands to show you whether a seller is reasonable, out of their mind, or somewhere in between.

From its inception 100 years ago, the secondary card market has been fascinating, pure capitalism at its finest. But how long (now?) will it be before AI becomes the price-setter for everything, even the rarest of the rare, using all available public information on supply and interpolating demand based on all sales from all times and even "related" card sales to come up with predicted prices. Of course, dealers and collectors will still have to agree on actual prices for deals to get made, but with the knowledge and consent that anything much outside the parameters set by AI is going off the reservation and into uncharted territory.

[sb1]

Hank,

Only one thing missing from AI, which is a large part of the equation when buying or selling is human emotion, which I don't think AI will be able to factor in.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

From its inception 100 years ago, the secondary card market has been fascinating, pure capitalism at its finest. But how long (now?) will it be before AI becomes the price-setter for everything, even the rarest of the rare, using all available public information on supply and interpolating demand based on all sales from all times and even "related" card sales to come up with predicted prices. Of course, dealers and collectors will still have to agree on actual prices for deals to get made, but with the knowledge and consent that anything much outside the parameters set by AI is going off the reservation and into uncharted territory.

AI has to start with existing data. And its results are only as good as the data it's using. Unless it's hallucinating and just pulling crap out of its hat, in which case it's worse than worthless.

I can see technology being further refined to get faster and better at giving us pricing ranges on commodity cards that trade frequently. I don't see it getting better at giving us good pricing on rare stuff that rarely trades. For this group, the day that we all cede our judgment about the value of our own cardboard to some computer is unlikely to ever arrive.

[Tim Kindler]

I've been going to card shows and card shops and buying "old" cards since 1979 since I was 7 years old.
As Scott B. essentially stated (at least what I interpreted) earlier in this thread, is that the economy rises and falls over time like a roller coaster, but the card market never crashes.
I agree. I just have never seen Vintage, Prewar, 19thC. - whatever you want to call it, but "old" cards just never have seemed to go down, at least in the last 46 years of my collecting lifetime.
I also think these areas of collectables and cards only get more valuable every time there is a work stoppage in baseball. They are already talking about a work stoppage in 27 in MLB.
If this does occur, I predict the prices of "old" cards will only ZOOM much higher!

I just continue to buy what I love, and in the condition that I can afford from dealers and fellow collectors who are willing to work with me on pricing and talk baseball and card history with me.

Happy collecting everyone!
Tim Kindler

[rand1com]

Comps will be used when available to negotiate prices to buy or sell.

If they are recent and fairly close (say low $750/High $900 with more in that range), then a nearer the middle price would be a good starting point. If a dealer has the card priced at $1200, forget trying to negotiate and move on. If priced at $900, negotiation might just work but don't expect to get the $750 price.

I have been a dealer for 35 years and I can assure you I rarely expect or get my asking price unless the card is literally on fire. It is a starting point. I also never price where I can sell at half of the asking price and make any money.

An item you likely cannot find again is another situation. I will price it based on the fact that no one else has one for sale.

In that case, it is "shoot for the moon" and hope to find the one buyer willing to pay that price.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by sb1

Hank,
Only one thing missing from AI, which is a large part of the equation when buying or selling is human emotion, which I don't think AI will be able to factor in.

Sure, but that human factor is available to AI in the results of all the history of past transactions it has to go by, and I think it's estimating prowess will become more refined. In that sense, it could become the ultimate "comp," but deals will still be made by people until someone puts AI to work buying things that it decides are undervalued and flipping them.

[Ray Van]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Sure, but that human factor is available to AI in the results of all the history of past transactions it has to go by, and I think it's estimating prowess will become more refined. In that sense, it could become the ultimate "comp," but deals will still be made by people until someone puts AI to work buying things that it decides are undervalued and flipping them.

I can assure you this is already happening, albeit early stages and not fully refined.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Of course, dealers and collectors will still have to agree on actual prices for deals to get made

I'm guessing that dealers and collectors will become far too lazy to do this themselves, instead relying on AI bots to barter on their behalf.

I really don't like the way the world is heading.

[BioCRN]

AI is only as good as your data set. Even looking at PSA "sold" prices on cards you'll find autograph graded lumped in with regular cards and for some reason cards that aren't even the card you're supposed to be looking at.

For example...PSA 3 "auction prices realized" for 53 Topps Satchel Paige has a couple Pokemon cards on Page 1 of the recent returns...and this is a common issue across many cards.

https://www.psacard.com/auctionprice...ige/179278?g=3

That should be a nice mess all around if they train on that data.

[gregndodgers]

I remember when Ruth Goudey’s cost $100. Now they are tens of thousands of $$$. Over the past 50 years, houses have appreciated 7% per year on average. Many vintage (and modern) are better than that.

Card prices are going up because they always have. Now that baby boomers are empty nesters, they have disposable income to buy what they couldn’t before.

So high prices are here to stay. Get used to it. Bubble will not burst. It never has.

[brunswickreeves]

And probably back when Ruth’s were $100 they seemed very high priced. Same when 52 Topps Mantles were $3,500. It’s interesting the shift in mindset of prices, when a Ruth is now 100X and Mantle is 10X from the aforementioned prior prices. However, typical 99%er’s incomes in the past 30-50 years haven’t gone up 10-100X.

[gregndodgers]

Yes, had an opportunity to buy a nice 52 Mantle for $3k back in the early 90s. Went to several card shows where he was signing autographs for around $50. But Mantle was never my thing.

I am first and foremost a collector, but have recently began thinking of cards as investments. So if you look at it that way, the price is just a number. I cannot afford the very best in the hobby, but I can get close.

EDIT: the transition to investor occurs when a collector buys his / her first $1,000 card. Prior to covid, it seemed ridiculous to buy cards over that threshold amount, but now I do it regularly.

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by gregndodgers

I remember when Ruth Goudey’s cost $100. Now they are tens of thousands of $$$. Over the past 50 years, houses have appreciated 7% per year on average. Many vintage (and modern) are better than that.

Card prices are going up because they always have. Now that baby boomers are empty nesters, they have disposable income to buy what they couldn’t before.

So high prices are here to stay. Get used to it. Bubble will not burst. It never has.

Gen Xers like myself are part of that surge since 2020 — many have paid off student loans and other debt and have that disposable income as well.

Curious, to those who were in the business during the housing crash through the Great Recession — what happened to card values/sales during that time?

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Brent G.

Curious, to those who were in the business during the housing crash through the Great Recession — what happened to card values/sales during that time?

Totally anecdotal input here...more of a buyer than a seller during this period, though I did both

There was a noticeable blip of downward prices in 2008 during the baseball season, but it was closer to a stagnant market rather than a time for great deals for those that had the money to spend.

The stagnant market lasted through 2011-2012 before I noticed prices rising a bit.

What's happened between Fall 2019 and current day is it's own beast. It's been a wild ride.

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by gregndodgers

Yes, had an opportunity to buy a nice 52 Mantle for $3k back in the early 90s. Went to several card shows where he was signing autographs for around $50. But Mantle was never my thing.

I am first and foremost a collector, but have recently began thinking of cards as investments. So if you look at it that way, the price is just a number. I cannot afford the very best in the hobby, but I can get close.

EDIT: the transition to investor occurs when a collector buys his / her first $1,000 card. Prior to covid, it seemed ridiculous to buy cards over that threshold amount, but now I do it regularly.

Are you looking to invest in a centered affordable(ish) PSA 1?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by gregndodgers

So high prices are here to stay. Get used to it. Bubble will not burst. It never has.

…Except when it goes awesomely, disastrously, epically wrong, as it did for the 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth. Sold at auction with REA in 2023 for $7.2 million and resold by Heritage this year for $4.02 million.

On the one hand, I have nothing but schadenfreude for the rich guy who lost over $3 million on the sale,



on the other hand,



My take on this debacle is that when you get into really rarified territory with any card, there are only a few buyers with the bank and the interest to chase it, and if they aren’t in the auction, watch out below. I guess he should’ve bought invidia stock.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Brent G.

Gen Xers like myself are part of that surge since 2020 — many have paid off student loans and other debt and have that disposable income as well.

Curious, to those who were in the business during the housing crash through the Great Recession — what happened to card values/sales during that time?

I think we also had a crash around mid-90s, post junk wax boom.

[gregndodgers]

I bought many investment grade cards in the early 2000s that weathered the housing crisis and recession. They did not drop in value but they didn’t go up much either. Now they’ve all gone up a billion percent!

Investing in vintage is more of a long term thing like blue chip stocks. I also invest in modern RCs. That’s more like day trading.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by raulus

I think we also had a crash around mid-90s, post junk wax boom.

1993-2000 were kinda dark times for hobby interest in baseball cards compared to the boom that preceded it.

Pujols and Ichiro showed up 2001 to save us. That was a fun wakeup era for the hobby. It's not comparable to the junk wax era or this current one, but it was nice to see the hobby pop a bit.

[gregndodgers]

I bought a lot of cards in 1993. Had the Derek Jeter foil SP RC in PSA 9. But losing the 1994 season and no World Series that year to the strike hurt the hobby. Who can forget watching replacement players cross the lines and play for major league teams? A forgettable black mark on the sport for sure. It took a long time to recover. Then 911 and the sadness that followed.

I went to the Philly show in 2002 or 2003, and I got hooked on the hobby again. Bought many great vintage cards at that show and others. Still have some of them. For me, those large east coast shows, Philly, Chantilly, White Plains, are what kept the hobby alive during some dark times.

My recollection is that by 2004, there were many small card shops around the DC area too and the hobby was alive and well.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

…Except when it goes awesomely, disastrously, epically wrong, as it did for the 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth. Sold at auction with REA in 2023 for $7.2 million and resold by Heritage this year for $4.02 million.

But maybe the '23 auction was the outlier. Would 4M for the Ruth be considered any kind of disaster in that case? Has it sold for that much or more otherwise? It's hard for me to see that kind of money as anything but a wowser.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

But maybe the '23 auction was the outlier. Would 4M for the Ruth be considered any kind of disaster in that case? Has it sold for that much or more otherwise? It's hard for me to see that kind of money as anything but a wowser.

That's because you didn't lose $3 million. I don't think anyone spends a lot on any collectible and thinks: "gee, I hope this loses 40% of its value in the next two years."

[Seven]

Originally Posted by gregndodgers

Yes, had an opportunity to buy a nice 52 Mantle for $3k back in the early 90s. Went to several card shows where he was signing autographs for around $50. But Mantle was never my thing.

I am first and foremost a collector, but have recently began thinking of cards as investments. So if you look at it that way, the price is just a number. I cannot afford the very best in the hobby, but I can get close.

EDIT: the transition to investor occurs when a collector buys his / her first $1,000 card. Prior to covid, it seemed ridiculous to buy cards over that threshold amount, but now I do it regularly.

Hell I remember before the Covid boom, PSA 1 Mantles were going for anywhere between 10-12.5K. I thought to myself "well it's obtainable for me, eventually." Now? No shot. Going to have to wait well into my twilight years if I want that card.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

That's because you didn't lose $3 million. I don't think anyone spends a lot on any collectible and thinks: "gee, I hope this loses 40% of its value in the next two years."

What do I care about that person? And I'm sure that's chump change to them, anyway. You really think this result, or the previous result, was indicative of anything? A bubble, a bursting of a bubble, whatever? How about just one guy speculating on a high-profile card, now he's gone so it lands where it would have the first time without him? That's all it says to me.

[gregndodgers]

One thing I do now is trade cards. Remember we did this in the 70s! I have built up a cache of hundreds of raw vintage HOF cards of Aaron, Mantle, Mays, etc that are all well centered with very light, if any, corner wear. These are extremely liquid assets. So I propose trades with other collectors for their pre war cards that I want, and quite often we are able to make deals. It saves my cash to buy other cards I want.

EDIT: many shows have trading sessions after the show!

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by gregndodgers

One thing I do now is trade cards. Remember we did this in the 70s! I have built up a cache of hundreds of raw vintage HOF cards of Aaron, Mantle, Mays, etc that are all well centered with very light, if any, corner wear. These are extremely liquid assets. So I propose trades with other collectors for their pre war cards that I want, and quite often we are able to make deals. It saves my cash to buy other cards I want.

EDIT: many shows have trading sessions after the show!

I’d love to work some trades with you if you have cards that you’re looking for

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

What do I care about that person? And I'm sure that's chump change to them, anyway. You really think this result, or the previous result, was indicative of anything? A bubble, a bursting of a bubble, whatever? How about just one guy speculating on a high-profile card, now he's gone so it lands where it would have the first time without him? That's all it says to me.

I think you’re right about it being a unique situation.

At the same time, about the time that everyone insists that prices only go up is a sign that we’re due for some nice declines. And I suspect many of us would welcome some declines.

[sb1]

I believe the BN Ruth was entirely a matter of someone(actually two counting the underbidder) paying too much the first time around. The recent sale was much more indicative of true value. It is just a one off in a market that is otherwise pretty healthy and steadily moving forward.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by sb1

I believe the BN Ruth was entirely a matter of someone(actually two counting the underbidder) paying too much the first time around. The recent sale was much more indicative of true value. It is just a one off in a market that is otherwise pretty healthy and steadily moving forward.

I agree with this.

Although the BN Ruth sales made for some nice Internet click-bait, we're still just talking about one card. It would be foolish to infer anything over the two sales of that one card. Now, if Ruth cards across the board dropped 40% over the past two years, that would be an entirely different conversation.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by raulus

About the time that everyone insists that prices only go up is a sign that we’re due for some nice declines. And I suspect many of us would welcome some declines.

I was interested in the posts detailing the periods in the 90s, aughts, and teens when prices of cards stalled or even backtracked some. We tend to forget about those. At the same time, like everything else in our lives, prices of our collectibles has indisputably made a steady march upward since about 1970 or so. I'm not sure this has been more on a percentage basis than cars, houses, candy bars, gold, electricity, cheeseburgers, etc., etc., etc., but the graph would look quite similar, I'm sure. Is the recent run-up on the top-tier items a bubble? Is gold? Are stocks? I have no clue. Clearly, there is a sh*tload of money floating around the world (see "Debt, U.S. Treasury, seemingly endless supply of buyers for..."), but that can change virtually overnight once things start to contract in a serious pullback of the overall economy. Personally, I wouldn't want to be jumping into any of these markets right now, but what do I know? On the other hand, that gorgeous Superman #1 that went for 9M a few days ago is high art, for sure, and I think even a young man could die waiting for it to come down from there. Some of our stuff is also in that class, I believe.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Some of our stuff is also in that class, I believe.

If only all of our stuff was in the same class as the highest graded Superman #1.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by raulus

If only all of our stuff was in the same class as the highest graded Superman #1.

I wish my stuff was in the same class as a low grade Superman #1.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by raulus

If only all of our stuff was in the same class as the highest graded Superman #1.

That's the top, of course. A Wags 9 would probably bring 2 or 3X that much. At least one card and some memorabilia has done even better, so we're right there with it.

[unamuzd1]

Originally Posted by Brent G.

I didn't want to walk out with nothing, and never have at a show, but being 20-minutes away helped that need, I suppose.

I had that happen for the first time this weekend as well (different show). Dealers I've known for decades are retiring and their spots are being filled by bulk-buyers who advertise 5-figure bankrolls on Staples-printed banners.

Which is fine, I guess. More power to 'em.

It was weird, though. And kinda settled that, yeah, after collecting for 45 years, it's probably time to actually figure out how to sell off what I've accumulated.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by sb1

I believe the BN Ruth was entirely a matter of someone(actually two counting the underbidder) paying too much the first time around.

With a little help from the Collectable website who valued it at 10M and then the auction house doing a ton of promotion for the sale. It was the first one to have been made available in a public auction in quite some time too.

Heritage did next to no promotion, not that they needed to, since the card was being offered again in way too close proximity of the first sale.

I am still not 100% sure that what we all saw (in both sales) reflected what actually happened.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

What do I care about that person? And I'm sure that's chump change to them, anyway. You really think this result, or the previous result, was indicative of anything? A bubble, a bursting of a bubble, whatever? How about just one guy speculating on a high-profile card, now he's gone so it lands where it would have the first time without him? That's all it says to me.

Geez, I thought I was a hardass.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Geez, I thought I was a hardass.

I'm no hardass, I'm a real softie. But I'm supposed to feel sorry for someone who can afford to spend 7M on a card just to flip it and make more? Say what?

[wilsonracquet]

Hi, I went to a card show in Raleigh about a year ago and prior to that, many card shows up in Massachusetts. Prices are always higher at the shows. Understandably so. Dealers need to make money as many of them make this their living. I have gone to card shows without buying anything, but I really enjoy attending them to see the cards the dealers have. I think everyone gets frustrated when you attend a show and you walk out with nothing but after a few minutes, I think everyone has a tendency to pretty much get over that.

I will say that if I find something that is overpriced, and I really want it, I'll pay for it. Particularly if lack of supply exists for that particular item. However, that probably won't be the case for me for a while as I recently lost my job (through no fault of my own) and I've entered the ranks of the retired. Going forward, I'm going to need to be more frugal with my purchases.

That being said, I like seeing the prices of cards going up in value. That bodes well with what I've purchased over the last couple years, and I've already taken advantage of that selling one particular item on E-Bay (Ohtani 2013 BBM) where I was able to capture a sale that was over four times what I paid for originally.

I plan on attending more shows, now that I have the time to do so. In fact, I'd like to attend the 4th Annual Vintage Show in Dulles in February. I really don't care how much the cards are when they are displayed at that show. Just viewing them and seeing them for myself is one of the big joys I get attending such things.
Steven

[Johnny630]

Here is a good question... everyone on here is talking about card prices tipping points...

Since prices are high across the board, at shows and auctions and we all know that if you want it you're going to have to overspend for that item. Where would you rather over spend?

At a card show or online/in-person auction house?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Here is a good question... everyone on here is talking about card prices tipping points...

Since prices are high across the board, at shows and auctions and we all know that if you want it you're going to have to overspend for that item. Where would you rather over spend?

At a card show or online/in-person auction house?

I'd rather overspend at a show. It's a physical experience and I can have my card in my hands immediately. You also get the opportunity to speak to fellow members of the Hobby.

[Rhotchkiss]

Steven, great post (#94). We would love to see you at the trade show. One point of clarification- it is not a “card show” , with dealers set up trying to sell cards to customers. It’s more of a hang out, of collectors, displaying and showing things from their personal collections and making friends and confections. If deals happen, great! But that’s not the purpose of the show (at all). See you there.

Ryan

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by wilsonracquet

I think everyone gets frustrated when you attend a show and you walk out with nothing but after a few minutes, I think everyone has a tendency to pretty much get over that.

For years, I attended shows with zero expectation of finding anything. Still, it was difficult to get over walking out with nothing almost every time, especially when time and travel expenses were taken into account. I finally had enough of it and stopped traveling to shows unless there were money-making opportunities that I had advanced knowledge of. While I wish it didn't have to be this way, I had to accept it. It doesn't help that my interests pertain to a niche market within a niche market within the overall market!

On the flip side, I attended my first local show in 35 years this summer. Considering its location, I was expecting even less than nothing, so you can imagine my surprise when I found a $1400 item for $450 and ended up flipping it two booths down for a tidy profit and a high grade set I was after! It was a shocker, and I wouldn't expect it to ever happen again, but I'll keep trying locally if the shows plan on sticking around!

And to Ryan: I sure wish that your gathering was much closer for me. Would love to join everyone and meet so many of you for the first time. But, being in Canada, I don't think I'll venture across the border until the world calms down a bit. I have very strong faith that a lot of our current Can/Am issues will disappear with time, hopefully sooner rather than later. Sure do miss my trips to the USA, seeing that beautiful land and connecting with friends.

[jsfriedm]

I primarily go to shows for three reasons:
1)to buy raw commons for my sets, which I'd prefer to examine in person and avoid paying $5 shipping for a $20 card
2)to see what the auction houses have or will have up for sale
3)to drop off cards in person for grading (not anymore, now that SGC no longer does shows

I have bought graded, more expensive cards at shows but that's rare, since the selection and prices are generally better online and at auction.