Card prices tipping point?

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

That's because you didn't lose $3 million. I don't think anyone spends a lot on any collectible and thinks: "gee, I hope this loses 40% of its value in the next two years."

What do I care about that person? And I'm sure that's chump change to them, anyway. You really think this result, or the previous result, was indicative of anything? A bubble, a bursting of a bubble, whatever? How about just one guy speculating on a high-profile card, now he's gone so it lands where it would have the first time without him? That's all it says to me.

[gregndodgers]

One thing I do now is trade cards. Remember we did this in the 70s! I have built up a cache of hundreds of raw vintage HOF cards of Aaron, Mantle, Mays, etc that are all well centered with very light, if any, corner wear. These are extremely liquid assets. So I propose trades with other collectors for their pre war cards that I want, and quite often we are able to make deals. It saves my cash to buy other cards I want.

EDIT: many shows have trading sessions after the show!

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by gregndodgers

One thing I do now is trade cards. Remember we did this in the 70s! I have built up a cache of hundreds of raw vintage HOF cards of Aaron, Mantle, Mays, etc that are all well centered with very light, if any, corner wear. These are extremely liquid assets. So I propose trades with other collectors for their pre war cards that I want, and quite often we are able to make deals. It saves my cash to buy other cards I want.

EDIT: many shows have trading sessions after the show!

I’d love to work some trades with you if you have cards that you’re looking for

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

What do I care about that person? And I'm sure that's chump change to them, anyway. You really think this result, or the previous result, was indicative of anything? A bubble, a bursting of a bubble, whatever? How about just one guy speculating on a high-profile card, now he's gone so it lands where it would have the first time without him? That's all it says to me.

I think you’re right about it being a unique situation.

At the same time, about the time that everyone insists that prices only go up is a sign that we’re due for some nice declines. And I suspect many of us would welcome some declines.

[sb1]

I believe the BN Ruth was entirely a matter of someone(actually two counting the underbidder) paying too much the first time around. The recent sale was much more indicative of true value. It is just a one off in a market that is otherwise pretty healthy and steadily moving forward.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by sb1

I believe the BN Ruth was entirely a matter of someone(actually two counting the underbidder) paying too much the first time around. The recent sale was much more indicative of true value. It is just a one off in a market that is otherwise pretty healthy and steadily moving forward.

I agree with this.

Although the BN Ruth sales made for some nice Internet click-bait, we're still just talking about one card. It would be foolish to infer anything over the two sales of that one card. Now, if Ruth cards across the board dropped 40% over the past two years, that would be an entirely different conversation.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by sb1

I believe the BN Ruth was entirely a matter of someone(actually two counting the underbidder) paying too much the first time around.

With a little help from the Collectable website who valued it at 10M and then the auction house doing a ton of promotion for the sale. It was the first one to have been made available in a public auction in quite some time too.

Heritage did next to no promotion, not that they needed to, since the card was being offered again in way too close proximity of the first sale.

I am still not 100% sure that what we all saw (in both sales) reflected what actually happened.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by raulus

About the time that everyone insists that prices only go up is a sign that we’re due for some nice declines. And I suspect many of us would welcome some declines.

I was interested in the posts detailing the periods in the 90s, aughts, and teens when prices of cards stalled or even backtracked some. We tend to forget about those. At the same time, like everything else in our lives, prices of our collectibles has indisputably made a steady march upward since about 1970 or so. I'm not sure this has been more on a percentage basis than cars, houses, candy bars, gold, electricity, cheeseburgers, etc., etc., etc., but the graph would look quite similar, I'm sure. Is the recent run-up on the top-tier items a bubble? Is gold? Are stocks? I have no clue. Clearly, there is a sh*tload of money floating around the world (see "Debt, U.S. Treasury, seemingly endless supply of buyers for..."), but that can change virtually overnight once things start to contract in a serious pullback of the overall economy. Personally, I wouldn't want to be jumping into any of these markets right now, but what do I know? On the other hand, that gorgeous Superman #1 that went for 9M a few days ago is high art, for sure, and I think even a young man could die waiting for it to come down from there. Some of our stuff is also in that class, I believe.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Some of our stuff is also in that class, I believe.

If only all of our stuff was in the same class as the highest graded Superman #1.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by raulus

If only all of our stuff was in the same class as the highest graded Superman #1.

I wish my stuff was in the same class as a low grade Superman #1.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by raulus

If only all of our stuff was in the same class as the highest graded Superman #1.

That's the top, of course. A Wags 9 would probably bring 2 or 3X that much. At least one card and some memorabilia has done even better, so we're right there with it.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

What do I care about that person? And I'm sure that's chump change to them, anyway. You really think this result, or the previous result, was indicative of anything? A bubble, a bursting of a bubble, whatever? How about just one guy speculating on a high-profile card, now he's gone so it lands where it would have the first time without him? That's all it says to me.

Geez, I thought I was a hardass.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Geez, I thought I was a hardass.

I'm no hardass, I'm a real softie. But I'm supposed to feel sorry for someone who can afford to spend 7M on a card just to flip it and make more? Say what?

[wilsonracquet]

Hi, I went to a card show in Raleigh about a year ago and prior to that, many card shows up in Massachusetts. Prices are always higher at the shows. Understandably so. Dealers need to make money as many of them make this their living. I have gone to card shows without buying anything, but I really enjoy attending them to see the cards the dealers have. I think everyone gets frustrated when you attend a show and you walk out with nothing but after a few minutes, I think everyone has a tendency to pretty much get over that.

I will say that if I find something that is overpriced, and I really want it, I'll pay for it. Particularly if lack of supply exists for that particular item. However, that probably won't be the case for me for a while as I recently lost my job (through no fault of my own) and I've entered the ranks of the retired. Going forward, I'm going to need to be more frugal with my purchases.

That being said, I like seeing the prices of cards going up in value. That bodes well with what I've purchased over the last couple years, and I've already taken advantage of that selling one particular item on E-Bay (Ohtani 2013 BBM) where I was able to capture a sale that was over four times what I paid for originally.

I plan on attending more shows, now that I have the time to do so. In fact, I'd like to attend the 4th Annual Vintage Show in Dulles in February. I really don't care how much the cards are when they are displayed at that show. Just viewing them and seeing them for myself is one of the big joys I get attending such things.
Steven

[Johnny630]

Here is a good question... everyone on here is talking about card prices tipping points...

Since prices are high across the board, at shows and auctions and we all know that if you want it you're going to have to overspend for that item. Where would you rather over spend?

At a card show or online/in-person auction house?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Here is a good question... everyone on here is talking about card prices tipping points...

Since prices are high across the board, at shows and auctions and we all know that if you want it you're going to have to overspend for that item. Where would you rather over spend?

At a card show or online/in-person auction house?

I'd rather overspend at a show. It's a physical experience and I can have my card in my hands immediately. You also get the opportunity to speak to fellow members of the Hobby.

[Rhotchkiss]

Steven, great post (#94). We would love to see you at the trade show. One point of clarification- it is not a “card show” , with dealers set up trying to sell cards to customers. It’s more of a hang out, of collectors, displaying and showing things from their personal collections and making friends and confections. If deals happen, great! But that’s not the purpose of the show (at all). See you there.

Ryan

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by wilsonracquet

I think everyone gets frustrated when you attend a show and you walk out with nothing but after a few minutes, I think everyone has a tendency to pretty much get over that.

For years, I attended shows with zero expectation of finding anything. Still, it was difficult to get over walking out with nothing almost every time, especially when time and travel expenses were taken into account. I finally had enough of it and stopped traveling to shows unless there were money-making opportunities that I had advanced knowledge of. While I wish it didn't have to be this way, I had to accept it. It doesn't help that my interests pertain to a niche market within a niche market within the overall market!

On the flip side, I attended my first local show in 35 years this summer. Considering its location, I was expecting even less than nothing, so you can imagine my surprise when I found a $1400 item for $450 and ended up flipping it two booths down for a tidy profit and a high grade set I was after! It was a shocker, and I wouldn't expect it to ever happen again, but I'll keep trying locally if the shows plan on sticking around!

And to Ryan: I sure wish that your gathering was much closer for me. Would love to join everyone and meet so many of you for the first time. But, being in Canada, I don't think I'll venture across the border until the world calms down a bit. I have very strong faith that a lot of our current Can/Am issues will disappear with time, hopefully sooner rather than later. Sure do miss my trips to the USA, seeing that beautiful land and connecting with friends.

[jsfriedm]

I primarily go to shows for three reasons:
1)to buy raw commons for my sets, which I'd prefer to examine in person and avoid paying $5 shipping for a $20 card
2)to see what the auction houses have or will have up for sale
3)to drop off cards in person for grading (not anymore, now that SGC no longer does shows

I have bought graded, more expensive cards at shows but that's rare, since the selection and prices are generally better online and at auction.