Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

[mark evans]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

[rdixon1208]

Originally Posted by mark evans

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

While there is no doubt some truth here, there also seems to be a large group my age (30) that are coming into pre-war now. We all have the same story. There was a card shop in our town. We collected cards, and so did all of our friends. We longed for the '89 UD Griffey. Then we got out of cards as teenagers and young adults. Now we have jobs and we want to get back in. The cards we have at our moms' house are worthless, and we want to make sure that whatever we spend our money on now won't be trash in a few years. This naturally leads to vintage and/or pre-war. Think about it...how many of the recent "New to the board" threads are from guys just like me. There was a thread a few months ago that said something like "Who will buy our cards twenty years from now?" My favorite answer....."I Will"

[Matt]

I think card values are and will be fine. At any time, in a healthy market, there will be things that perform well and things that perform poorly, which is where we are now with cards. True a few years ago there was growth across the board on almost all pre-war issues, but that has settled out now to leave us a healthy situation.

[smtjoy]

I think what Barry said is right on the money. I think everyone got the feeling that pre war and some high grade post war card prices were going to continue to go up and poured money in to get a piece of the action. I remember auction results 3-4 years ago and nearly every lot was a new all time high. This year it seems like you see a few items getting great numbers but the rest is off. 4 years ago I was lucky to win anything at the auctions, this year I have had to hold back recently as I have won cards in 9 auctions and the budget is busting and I have the same budget as I did then.

That also makes me wonder how much of that was shilling and other funky stuff. I find it interesting that a few auction houses are no longer reporting their results to VCP, I get the feeling they dont want to advertise the lower prices they are bringing in or they are worried about shilling/FBI and leaving a price trail that people like Jeff can use as an example of "how can that price be good when the same card has sold 6 times this year for 20% of that price each time" and those result do really make me wonder and im sure many others do. Are the auction houses partly to blame for a bubble, I know things like shilling, extending crazy amounts of credits to buyers so they can flip on ebay then pay for their winnings have had an adverse effect on true values.

I mainly collect exhibits and I can say that most of the common cards have been selling very soft (off 20-40%) but as soon as a tough card like (26-29 plain backgound, 31-32, 33's) go for sale they get big numbers. I also collect Clemente cards and his Topps cards in 8 or 9 are all down as well as many of his common stuff but when you see his Plak selling for major money and some of his much harder stuff goes big it makes you think scarcity is playing a huge part too.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by smtjoy

I mainly collect exhibits and I can say that most of the common cards have been selling very soft (off 20-40%) but as soon as a tough card like (26-29 plain backgound, 31-32, 33's) go for sale they get big numbers.

+1

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by rdixon1208

While there is no doubt some truth here, there also seems to be a large group my age (30) that are coming into pre-war now. We all have the same story. There was a card shop in our town. We collected cards, and so did all of our friends. We longed for the '89 UD Griffey. Then we got out of cards as teenagers and young adults. Now we have jobs and we want to get back in. The cards we have at our moms' house are worthless, and we want to make sure that whatever we spend our money on now won't be trash in a few years. This naturally leads to vintage and/or pre-war. Think about it...how many of the recent "New to the board" threads are from guys just like me. There was a thread a few months ago that said something like "Who will buy our cards twenty years from now?" My favorite answer....."I Will"

This post is spot on. And the first step into pre-war will likely be 1933 Goudey or T206. The abundance of both sets mirrors the abundance of modern cards, so you can get your quick fix on ebay every day if you like. But 33 Goudey and T206 provide more stability and long term enjoyment than the shiny stuff. I definitely see both sets as a natural progression for the shiny collectors burned by the drop in value and enthusiasm for modern cards.

The biggest issue will be if people just stop collecting cards generally -- as a society. I suspect that the overwhelming paradigm shift into an all digital era will actually create more collectors -- even if they cannot recall when media was transmitted on paper.

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

This post is spot on. And the first step into pre-war will likely be 1933 Goudey or T206. The abundance of both sets mirrors the abundance of modern cards, so you can get your quick fix on ebay every day if you like. But 33 Goudey and T206 provide more stability and long term enjoyment than the shiny stuff. I definitely see both sets as a natural progression for the shiny collectors burned by the drop in value and enthusiasm for modern cards.

The biggest issue will be if people just stop collecting cards generally -- as a society. I suspect that the overwhelming paradigm shift into an all digital era will actually create more collectors -- even if they cannot recall when media was transmitted on paper.

I also agree with the previous posts. While pre-war collectors tend to scoff and mock the shiny cards, I find that the vast majority of modern card hobbyists are very appreciative of T206 and Goudey. The "digital age" has left many like me (I'm 34) longing for that simpler time. I love tanglible things that I can hold and appreciate like records, books with covers and baseball cards.

[jimm]

Good points all, as long as there is baseball there will be baseball collectors. Value will rise and fall, as always. Collect what you want for as long as you want (or can) I feel there will always be a market for quality baseball items.