Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

[barrysloate]

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

agreed 100%

[Mark]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

I agree that things have changed. Thanks to the last 25 years the hobby has a status that it didn't have before. And if it is a fact that things change, then they will keep changing. Interest in the hobby may peter out or the country's ever-expanding population could be caught up in a new wave of interest in vintage baseball. But I still think that in any event the small number of cards that exist for most vintage sets will make them hard to find and will prevent prices from falling through the floor (Does anyone have a Hereclitus card for sale or trade?)

[barrysloate]

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

[vintagetoppsguy]

Just want to comment on a few different things I have read in this thread.

Yes, the hobby needs more collectors. More collectors = higher prices. Like it was mentioned, all it takes is one other bidder to drive up the price of a given auction.

True, there was a large influx of people that came into the hobby from 1980-2005. However, the majority of those weren’t true collectors - they were people looking for a quick buck or thinking their baseball cards was going to fund their kid’s college tuition, their retirement, etc.

I don’t think people’s discretionary income is lower than it used to be. My discretionary income is still the same. Nowadays I just choose to save more money than I used to and spend less. It’s a personal choice, not a matter of having less to spend. That will change as the economy changes.

[rdixon1208]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I don’t think people’s discretionary income is lower than it used to be. My discretionary income is still the same. Nowadays I just choose to save more money than I used to and spend less. It’s a personal choice, not a matter of having less to spend. That will change as the economy changes.

David,

People's discretionary income is way down. For those of us in south Texas is seems like the economy isn't too bad, and it isn't here, but we're the lucky ones. Much of the country is hurting. Families that depend on two incomes are down to one, people are being forced to take pay cuts to keep their jobs, and in some cases people are depending 100% on government benefits to survive. I got a nice raise this year, but I'm sending a good bit of it to my wife's family in Illinois. Some of them have moved here for work.
In my opinion this is the most significant reason that prices are dropping.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

I agree to some extent. Certain issues (E cards come to mine) got hotter'n'hell for a while and everyone starting grabbing every example, even if they didn't like the cards much, just to be in position to flip them. That was definitely a bubble.

[nebboy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

Oh I do agree that there has been a bubble poping for a few years, the only thing that does'nt come down is the expection that their cards price should be that same as it was at its highest. Going back to what a card sold at in a major auction house 2-5 or more yars ago and thinking that should be what mine is worth (or thats what I want for it). Never seems to change. The price guilds support this every month with the numbers they qoute.

[Bosox Blair]

I'm not sure I can agree with the original premise. I subscribe to VCP and follow the pricing on certain items with interest.

Most recently, pretty much everything I've tracked on Ebay sold at a price not far off the pre-crash 2008 levels, according to VCP data. Not just the T207s everyone mentions, but a grouping of T206s last night on Ebay with common backs in PSA 5-6. I monitored a few of the HOFers and a couple other notables and all of them sold at prices consistent with early 2008 sales.

For the last several months, each time I try to score a "deal" on a pre-war card on Ebay, I get seriously outbid.

Now I agree that when I first got VCP, I was shocked at how far prices had come down in late 2008 to early 2009 when compared to the prior couple years. But I believe that was the low point. A lot of what I look at appears to have rebounded more recently.

Put it this way - I'm a buyer and not a seller. I consider 2009 to have been a banner year for me adding to my collection for prices I was really happy about. As for 2010...definitely not so much.

Cheers,
Blair

[ErikV]

Just read this in the Wall Street Journal this morning.

How have you redefined luxuries and necessities in the past two years?
http://on.wsj.com/bYaTmI

One of the most impressionable comments that was left is as
pertinent to this conversation as any that's been brought up yet...

"A luxury now is a weekend getaway near home. Dining out is a luxury.
Having a job is a luxury!"

For those of us who on the board that are out of work, baseball card
collecting is probably the furthest thing down on our priority list.....

ErikV

[mark evans]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

[rdixon1208]

Originally Posted by mark evans

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

While there is no doubt some truth here, there also seems to be a large group my age (30) that are coming into pre-war now. We all have the same story. There was a card shop in our town. We collected cards, and so did all of our friends. We longed for the '89 UD Griffey. Then we got out of cards as teenagers and young adults. Now we have jobs and we want to get back in. The cards we have at our moms' house are worthless, and we want to make sure that whatever we spend our money on now won't be trash in a few years. This naturally leads to vintage and/or pre-war. Think about it...how many of the recent "New to the board" threads are from guys just like me. There was a thread a few months ago that said something like "Who will buy our cards twenty years from now?" My favorite answer....."I Will"

[Matt]

I think card values are and will be fine. At any time, in a healthy market, there will be things that perform well and things that perform poorly, which is where we are now with cards. True a few years ago there was growth across the board on almost all pre-war issues, but that has settled out now to leave us a healthy situation.

[smtjoy]

I think what Barry said is right on the money. I think everyone got the feeling that pre war and some high grade post war card prices were going to continue to go up and poured money in to get a piece of the action. I remember auction results 3-4 years ago and nearly every lot was a new all time high. This year it seems like you see a few items getting great numbers but the rest is off. 4 years ago I was lucky to win anything at the auctions, this year I have had to hold back recently as I have won cards in 9 auctions and the budget is busting and I have the same budget as I did then.

That also makes me wonder how much of that was shilling and other funky stuff. I find it interesting that a few auction houses are no longer reporting their results to VCP, I get the feeling they dont want to advertise the lower prices they are bringing in or they are worried about shilling/FBI and leaving a price trail that people like Jeff can use as an example of "how can that price be good when the same card has sold 6 times this year for 20% of that price each time" and those result do really make me wonder and im sure many others do. Are the auction houses partly to blame for a bubble, I know things like shilling, extending crazy amounts of credits to buyers so they can flip on ebay then pay for their winnings have had an adverse effect on true values.

I mainly collect exhibits and I can say that most of the common cards have been selling very soft (off 20-40%) but as soon as a tough card like (26-29 plain backgound, 31-32, 33's) go for sale they get big numbers. I also collect Clemente cards and his Topps cards in 8 or 9 are all down as well as many of his common stuff but when you see his Plak selling for major money and some of his much harder stuff goes big it makes you think scarcity is playing a huge part too.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by smtjoy

I mainly collect exhibits and I can say that most of the common cards have been selling very soft (off 20-40%) but as soon as a tough card like (26-29 plain backgound, 31-32, 33's) go for sale they get big numbers.

+1

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by rdixon1208

While there is no doubt some truth here, there also seems to be a large group my age (30) that are coming into pre-war now. We all have the same story. There was a card shop in our town. We collected cards, and so did all of our friends. We longed for the '89 UD Griffey. Then we got out of cards as teenagers and young adults. Now we have jobs and we want to get back in. The cards we have at our moms' house are worthless, and we want to make sure that whatever we spend our money on now won't be trash in a few years. This naturally leads to vintage and/or pre-war. Think about it...how many of the recent "New to the board" threads are from guys just like me. There was a thread a few months ago that said something like "Who will buy our cards twenty years from now?" My favorite answer....."I Will"

This post is spot on. And the first step into pre-war will likely be 1933 Goudey or T206. The abundance of both sets mirrors the abundance of modern cards, so you can get your quick fix on ebay every day if you like. But 33 Goudey and T206 provide more stability and long term enjoyment than the shiny stuff. I definitely see both sets as a natural progression for the shiny collectors burned by the drop in value and enthusiasm for modern cards.

The biggest issue will be if people just stop collecting cards generally -- as a society. I suspect that the overwhelming paradigm shift into an all digital era will actually create more collectors -- even if they cannot recall when media was transmitted on paper.

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

This post is spot on. And the first step into pre-war will likely be 1933 Goudey or T206. The abundance of both sets mirrors the abundance of modern cards, so you can get your quick fix on ebay every day if you like. But 33 Goudey and T206 provide more stability and long term enjoyment than the shiny stuff. I definitely see both sets as a natural progression for the shiny collectors burned by the drop in value and enthusiasm for modern cards.

The biggest issue will be if people just stop collecting cards generally -- as a society. I suspect that the overwhelming paradigm shift into an all digital era will actually create more collectors -- even if they cannot recall when media was transmitted on paper.

I also agree with the previous posts. While pre-war collectors tend to scoff and mock the shiny cards, I find that the vast majority of modern card hobbyists are very appreciative of T206 and Goudey. The "digital age" has left many like me (I'm 34) longing for that simpler time. I love tanglible things that I can hold and appreciate like records, books with covers and baseball cards.

[jimm]

Good points all, as long as there is baseball there will be baseball collectors. Value will rise and fall, as always. Collect what you want for as long as you want (or can) I feel there will always be a market for quality baseball items.