Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

[barrysloate]

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

[vintagetoppsguy]

Just want to comment on a few different things I have read in this thread.

Yes, the hobby needs more collectors. More collectors = higher prices. Like it was mentioned, all it takes is one other bidder to drive up the price of a given auction.

True, there was a large influx of people that came into the hobby from 1980-2005. However, the majority of those weren’t true collectors - they were people looking for a quick buck or thinking their baseball cards was going to fund their kid’s college tuition, their retirement, etc.

I don’t think people’s discretionary income is lower than it used to be. My discretionary income is still the same. Nowadays I just choose to save more money than I used to and spend less. It’s a personal choice, not a matter of having less to spend. That will change as the economy changes.

[rdixon1208]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I don’t think people’s discretionary income is lower than it used to be. My discretionary income is still the same. Nowadays I just choose to save more money than I used to and spend less. It’s a personal choice, not a matter of having less to spend. That will change as the economy changes.

David,

People's discretionary income is way down. For those of us in south Texas is seems like the economy isn't too bad, and it isn't here, but we're the lucky ones. Much of the country is hurting. Families that depend on two incomes are down to one, people are being forced to take pay cuts to keep their jobs, and in some cases people are depending 100% on government benefits to survive. I got a nice raise this year, but I'm sending a good bit of it to my wife's family in Illinois. Some of them have moved here for work.
In my opinion this is the most significant reason that prices are dropping.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

I agree to some extent. Certain issues (E cards come to mine) got hotter'n'hell for a while and everyone starting grabbing every example, even if they didn't like the cards much, just to be in position to flip them. That was definitely a bubble.

[nebboy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

Oh I do agree that there has been a bubble poping for a few years, the only thing that does'nt come down is the expection that their cards price should be that same as it was at its highest. Going back to what a card sold at in a major auction house 2-5 or more yars ago and thinking that should be what mine is worth (or thats what I want for it). Never seems to change. The price guilds support this every month with the numbers they qoute.

[Bosox Blair]

I'm not sure I can agree with the original premise. I subscribe to VCP and follow the pricing on certain items with interest.

Most recently, pretty much everything I've tracked on Ebay sold at a price not far off the pre-crash 2008 levels, according to VCP data. Not just the T207s everyone mentions, but a grouping of T206s last night on Ebay with common backs in PSA 5-6. I monitored a few of the HOFers and a couple other notables and all of them sold at prices consistent with early 2008 sales.

For the last several months, each time I try to score a "deal" on a pre-war card on Ebay, I get seriously outbid.

Now I agree that when I first got VCP, I was shocked at how far prices had come down in late 2008 to early 2009 when compared to the prior couple years. But I believe that was the low point. A lot of what I look at appears to have rebounded more recently.

Put it this way - I'm a buyer and not a seller. I consider 2009 to have been a banner year for me adding to my collection for prices I was really happy about. As for 2010...definitely not so much.

Cheers,
Blair