Chipper jones first ballot hofer?

majordanby · #1 09-06-2012, 01:20 PM

Baseball reference compares him to Eddie Mathews, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle, and Billy Williams (other comparable players are either still playing or are his contemporaries). Mathews and Williams were not first ballot, while schmidt and mantle were.

If you look at career fWAR, Jones ranks 33rd, which is pretty darn good considering his injuries (and fWAR is a cumulative stat). Players around him include Ripken, Kaline, Boggs, Brooks Robinson, Dimaggio, Brett, Clemente, Cap anson, Gehringer, George Davis, Luke appling, and Bench. Eliminating the pre war players, Ripken, Kaline, Boggs, Robinson, Brett and Bench were first ballot guys. Griffey is also pretty close to him and my gut tells me he's a first ballot.

Include other circumstances that appear to favor him - well liked by the media, stayed with one team the entire time, many of his contemporaries, though potentially deserving, wont be inducted because of steroid implications, and he hasnt been linked to steroid usage (like griffey, whether we like it or not, many will point to his injuries as proof).

My guess is that he'll get in first ballot, not just because of his numbers, but the "other stuff" will help push him in. Just his numbers alone - no doubt HOF'er, but first ballot there is an argument against it (unlike with henderson in 09, ripken and gwynn in 07). The argument largely being the injuries over the last 8 seasons. But, an MVP and 5 other top 10 finishes is pretty darn convincing. And he did quite a bit in 07 and 08 (according to WAR, his two best seasons) despite the injuries.

tiger8mush · #2 09-06-2012, 04:29 PM

I think he's a HOFer. But if ballot # sorta ranks where you stand amongst your HOF peers, I'd put him in the 2nd tier, so 2nd ballot.

His "Wins Above Replacement" for positional players was in the top 10 only 5 times in his 18 year career (highest finish 3rd). By comparison, Pujols was #1 6 years in a row. Thats first ballot. Bonds was #1 eleven times in WAR for positional players. Schmidt and Morgan, 4 times they were #1. Those guys are first ballot HOFers. Mays, Hornsby, Ruth, Mantle, Cobb, Ted Williams, Lajoie were all #1 AT LEAST 5 times each. A dozen or so others were #1 multiple times. Chipper was never #1, nor #2 in his own league.

Not first ballot (maybe to poor defense), but easily has enough career achievement to make him a certain HOFer, probably 2nd ballot.

Just my opinion

Rob

Jlighter · #3 09-06-2012, 07:46 PM

Also he is top 50 all time in WAR, just sayin.

Touch'EmAll · #4 09-06-2012, 08:26 PM

Was he a dominant power hitter leading the league many a season?

Was he a dominant Batting Average hitter leading the league many a season?

Was he a dominant fielder leading the league in fielding stats many a season?

Was he a dominant runner leading the league in steals many a season?

Was he a perennial All-Star appearing on 15 +/- All star teams as a starter?

I always thought, in my humble opinion, that a player needs to be dominant to merit first ballot.

A very solid, good player with leadership skills - YES! Like I said before, he can play on my team anytime. But back to the question if he is a FIRST ballot HOF'er, jeesh.

Chris-Counts · #5 09-06-2012, 09:57 PM

Yes, Chipper is a first ballot Hall of Famer as a THIRD BASEMAN. And no, you can't compare him to outfielders and first basemen. If you think that's a valid comparison, try fielding a team without a real shortstop, third baseman or catcher. Your team won't get very far.

By the way, there are half as many third baseman in the HOF than any other position. That proves the voters have know idea what a Hall of Fame third baseman looks like.

Based on his stats, Chipper is clearly a Top 5 all-time third baseman. How many third basemen can you name with a .300 career batting average. 400 career home runs, an MVP award, a batting title and a World Series championship?

glchen · #6 09-07-2012, 01:02 AM

In my opinion, I don't think Chipper is a first ballot HOFer. To me, a first ballot HOFer would mean that you are in the "inner" circle in the Hall of Fame. That is, you absolutely dominated the game. I don't think Chipper meets that critieria. In the modern era, it would be players like Jeter, Rivera, Pujols, Randy Johnson, and perhaps Pedro Martinez. I think Chipper is a good player who eventually deserves to get into the Hall, but not on the first ballot.

CMIZ5290 · #7 09-07-2012, 01:49 PM

I think there has been some very good feedback, but another reason why i think he is in on first ballot is how well he is liked by the overall media. He is never a smart ass, and he is normally quick and cordial about giving interviews and answering questions. I know this has nothing to do about his numbers, but trust me when i say it will be a big factor. So many of these pro athletes are complete jerks, and give no respect to the fans and media.....

BradH · #8 09-08-2012, 09:03 PM

Maybe I�ve missed it, but I�m surprised no one has commented on Chipper as a switch hitter. He�ll end as one of the top 3 or 4 all time, and this is what sets him apart to me. His ranks among all-time switch hitters:

Average:
.304 � 2nd behind Frankie Frisch (Chipper ranks ahead of Rose, Mantle, Alomar, Murray, Schoendienst)

Home Runs:
468 � 3rd behind only Mantle and Murray

RBIs:
1,619 � 2nd behind Murray

Yes, the great and honest relationship with the media and staying with one team his whole career will help him, but his numbers as a switch hitter are what I hear as the number one reason among writers as to why they�ll vote for him in the first year.

A fun �Did you know� stat that has nothing to do with switch hitters: Chipper and Albert Pujols are the only two active players with at least 450 career home runs and who still have more career walks than strikeouts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Was he a dominant runner leading the league in steals many a season?

100backstroke- Please don�t think this is a shot at your comment, because it isn�t, but your comment did remind me of something. I know you were referring to base stealing and I believe Chipper only had a couple 20-steal seasons, so he certainly wasn�t a league leader in that regard. However, Chipper has long been regarded as perhaps one of the best �base runners� in the National League. He was called �the best and smartest base runner I ever had� by Bobby Cox and others such as Tony LaRussa and Jim Leyland have offered similar sentiment over the years.

A quick story � I remember a game a few years ago when Chipper was at first base with two outs and on a hit to right field he stopped at second. Some questioned why he didn�t go ahead and take third on the play. The next batter got a hit and Chipper scored. Later in the game, with one out, he went from first to third on a hit to LEFT FIELD. The next batter hit a sac fly and the Braves beat the Cardinals by one run. After the game, Cards manager Tony La Russa said Chipper�s base running had made all the difference in the game. A young player would have likely done things in reverse of what Chipper did, but he was smart and knew when to take third and when not to.

I know guys don�t get in the Hall based on their base running, but in this little part of baseball that is usually overlooked, he�s clearly considered one of the best by those who play and manage against him.

howard38 · #9 09-08-2012, 10:06 PM

,

Chris-Counts · #10 09-09-2012, 03:23 PM

Can somebody please explain to me what the criteria of a "first ballot" Hall of Famer is? Is this criteria any different from that of a "second ballot" Hall of Famer? And where exactly is this criteria written down?

It's my theory that all this nonsense about first ballot vs. second ballot-and-beyond is nothing but the invention of the voters, who just happen to be sports writers looking for something controversial to write or talk about � and some reason to place more importance on their roles in the process.

Jlighter · #11 09-09-2012, 06:55 PM

I believe the difference is that, if it's a first time player on the ballot, does he deserve to be voted ahead of players who while deserving have been waiting a few years. You also have to consider the players competition during the voting period. instead of just saying he's a first ballot

HRBAKER · #12 09-09-2012, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Counts

Can somebody please explain to me what the criteria of a "first ballot" Hall of Famer is? Is this criteria any different from that of a "second ballot" Hall of Famer? And where exactly is this criteria written down?

It's my theory that all this nonsense about first ballot vs. second ballot-and-beyond is nothing but the invention of the voters, who just happen to be sports writers looking for something controversial to write or talk about � and some reason to place more importance on their roles in the process.

I agree, it's almost as crazy as arguing about what a "rookie" card is.
It's a purely artificial hobby or media construct that gives people something to talk about.

jp1216 · #13 10-06-2012, 03:35 PM

Chipper will be an easy in. First ballot - probably a 75% chance. One team helped. Thanks to the prior posts about Maris. Let's hope he will get in - in time...

toppcat · #14 10-06-2012, 03:56 PM

As a Mets fan I hate the guy but he is first ballot without a doubt.

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