Biggest changes in the past 5 years?

[vintagecpa]

I took some time away from collecting at various points. From my observation, I have noticed the following changes. 1. Rare-backs and rare colors for some Carmel issues have gone wild. 2. Red Sox Ruth cards now require a second mortgage. 3. The number of Unscrupulous people doesn't seem to ever go down on EBay. 4. Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, etc. hold their value. 5. When you are bidding on a high-value card, you better find a picture of the same card in a past auction or on VCP to make sure it is the same card. 6. The infield fly rule now goes back to the warning track. (sorry, just a bitter Braves fan).

[Brian Van Horn]

Guys,

What I am seeing is fewer collectors. The ones that remain, I have known for a good percentage of them for years.

Also, it is 2012. We are talking in a lot of cases cards that are a 100 years old. Fame is fleeting. Ruth, Cobb, Johnson, Wagner and Mathewson (the original five HoF inductees) being the exceptions.

Finally, what are the three sets that get the most attention from a new collector? T206, Cracker Jack and Goudey. Why? The colors.

So, the question is how to make collecting appealing to a younger generation of fans who have a lot of distractions.

The profile you need of a collector is someone who is curious about history, who is also a huge sports fan, especially baseball. He then needs to expand that curiosity to other sets and to develop a fondness for black and white. Otherwise.......

[sesop]

Exactly- how to make collecting appeal to a younger generation. That's my concern. I'm excited to get back into the hobby, but in a weird way, am kind of discouraged by the discount pricing- meaning- the market, in general, seems soft. As nice as it is to think that the e98 Hippo Vaughn I sold for $500 could be bought back for half that today, part of me worries that even though its a bargain, if my kids don't care about my cards wne I die and they sell it, they'll get $12, so the "bargain" I jumped on was actually a loser. If I do this in scale, picking up scads of cards because they're so "cheap" nowadays, I'd be upset that I sold at the peak of the market, got back in as it was declining, and rode the wave to the basement. Again- I'm not into cards "for the money," but I'd be lying if I said there wasn't some semblance of hope that at the very least, the cards will keep their value better than, say, a hamburger.

Yeah- so many young people with so many distractions, and who the hell cares about Gordon Hickman (T206 SLer) a hundred years later? (Did anyone care about him much in 1911?)

As excited as I was to get back in, I hate to admit it, but I kind of have cold feet now. This is a hobby, but its also an obsession. I know I won't be happy with one or two cards- I buy what I like, so I'll have a collection, which costs money, soon enough if I get back into it, and something about the notion of less people having less money to spend on cards, less general interest, etc, makes me worry that it can l only go downhill- which may be ok if my taste was crappy condition 1990's cards, but I like nice, 100+ year old cardboard, and I'd be remiss to start "investing" in something that will only be worth less (not "worthless") however many years down the road.

Am I the only one in this boat?

As for the black swamp find- I just checked it out. My house is old- why haven't I ever found a box of e98s lying around? Even beat up and creased and stained with caramel would be fine. Ha!

It's really fascinating to come back after such a long break. I truly do appreciate all of your input and am starting to get a sense of what the hobby looks like from the board, VCP, various auction houses, recent eBay prices, BINs, and stuff ending tonight, etc. No matter what, this is an amazing hobby and even if I don't get back into it with the veracity I had years ago, surely I'll find a few cards which suit my fancy- although the E105 Mello Mint Knight was pulled out from under me last night at B-L...

Thanks again. This is great stuff!

[Big Ben]

I think that some of the recent realized prices in the hobby are a result of the demographics of collectors, but I also think that you need to consider the economy over the past few years. I know how you feel about getting back into the hobby after a prolonged absence. I would dabble with things here and there, but for the most part, I was away from the hobby for 20 years! Talk about a lot of catching up!

[Leon]

In today's environment you really have to be careful on the buy side of our gems. As long as you can get the card at a good price then the resale, if you must, wont be too bad. As mentioned before, it's the cards that were bought 4-8 yrs ago that are under water, for the most part (with exceptions to the cards mentioned that have gone up in value). I am having the time of my life right now as it's a great time to be collecting. There are plenty of 20 somethings and 30 somethings coming into our space too. I would say we are safe for the next generation or two, as far as the population of vintage collectors....after that I don't know. Nice posts in this thread. Welcome back David, glad I was able to help a bit.

[Matthew H]

Hi David,

I was introduced to pre-wwii cards at a very early age by those Dover reprint books. I've posted that before and a few people in my age group (30ish) PM'd me to share their version of the same story.

Today, I believe it's Topps that has taken on this role. A lot of us here have mixed feeling's about these 'chase' cards inserted into modern products, many featuring items mangled game used items. The most popular items in terms of value seem to be of players like Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

They've also released products like Topps 206 where the cards look like t206 and they also randomly insert t206s into the product. I know there are a few board members that got into vintage this way.

Here is a cool thread with a poll outlining the general age groups of those who participated:

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...light=age+poll

[rainier2004]

David - Leon pretty much summed it up, but it sounds like the dealers at the National were pretty pleased this year. The turnout was better, I bought more than I ever have at one place and it was nice to see some kids back at a show. There was even a small feature on ESPN about it. It seems the marker is coming back with the economy.

Also, I feel some of the problem w/ cards is MLB. The Tigers/A's game yesterday was not available on our cable and I had to listen to it on AM RADIO, a playoff game at noon. Also, some games simply start too late and kids go to bed. When I was a boy, the latest a game started was 730pm except for the west coast. $$$ isn't everything as youth is the key to any sustainability. All that and attendance records continue to be broken. BB also had a great year IMO.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by vintagecpa

*** 6. The infield fly rule now goes back to the warning track. (sorry, just a bitter Braves fan).

Right on! That ball was out in no-man's land, where a lot of "you've got it" "no, you take it" habitually occurs between outfielder and infielder--quite a few of the balls hit there drop, and thus it was ludicrous to contend that it could have been caught with reasonable effort. Secondly, the rule was intended to prevent the fielder from intentionally dropping a pop-fly to bring about an easy doubleplay. There is no way that intentionally allowing that ball to land in that location could have produced an easy double play. The infield fly rule had no application there at all.

But back to the main subject of the thread--I think that what we've seen in the last 5 years, along with the down economy reducing discretionary income, is the fact that collecting trends and the popularity of various cards and sets has and will continue to change over time. The same thing happened repeatedly in coins, which have had an organized market since the late 1850's, far longer than the organized baseball card market has been around. Items that rode the crest of the popularity wave in one decade slipped to a position way down the list in the next! Various issues in coins consequenty waxed and waned in value, and continue to be subject to price cycles (although truly rare and significant pieces in both collecting fields have tended to bear consistently upwards in price, sometimes astonishingly so--1914 Baltimore News Ruth, anyone? And sometimes the shear overwhelming significance of a card alone is enough--see the M101 Ruth rookie, a card that might be characterized as somewhat scarce, but is certainly not rare). Look for emerging significant rarities (I like the T206 rare-back HOF'ers here, although I don't collect T206, along with a number of the rare cards I do own of upper tier HOF'ers but won't tout here) to continute to increase in price dramatically. The only real trick is to spot them before they get out of reach price-wise!

I certainly share your appreciation for the expertise of a vast number of the members of this board, and its good to have you back!

Larry