The next five years- what do you see for the future of the hobby?

[ullmandds]

Steven...I agree...but when our dads are gone...I don't see mantle rookies continuing to fetch prices in the 4 figures minimum range for beaters...let alone close to 6 figures for high grade.

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Steven...I agree...but when our dads are gone...I don't see mantle rookies continuing to fetch prices in the 4 figures minimum range for beaters...let alone close to 6 figures for high grade.

Peter - I agree with ya completely. It looks like its just the 2 of us though. I think it will take longer than 5 years for this slide as well, but not 20.

[mark evans]

I think the value of vintage cards will decrease gradually over time, with rarities performing better than more common issues. I think the reasons are two-fold: economic measures taken to address the national debt (tax increases, reduction in 'entitlements'...this is not intended to provoke a political discussion) and aging of baby boomers. On the latter point, I can't help but believe that the value of Mantle cards is directly related to the fact that he was the sports hero of most kids who like myself grew up in the 50s and 60s.

[Brian Van Horn]

I'm hoping to see more guys like Chris and Steve. Another generation needs to be great in numbers.

The one thing less likely to be seen is reasonable pricing.

[Big Ben]

Ok, I'll throw in the unthinkable to some people on this thread. I believe that there will be a rotation away from T206's as the prices of those cards peak.
I very much agree with a previous post about grading firms coming under greater scrutiny.

[cmcclelland]

In general, I believe the long term trend will always be that good vintage sports collectibles will appreciate in value. There will undoubtedly be short term swings up and down, but I believe the long term trend will always be up.

At a minimum, I would expect most quality vintage cards to keep pace with inflation. More likely, I would expect the "good stuff" such as rare pre-war cards and high quality vinatge HOF cards that were produced before the mass production era, will outpace inflation considerably.

As for the 1952 Topps Mantle and Mantle cards in general, I believe they will always be in demand and perform just fine as an investment over time. Did any of us see most of the pre-war HOF players that we place such a high value on play the game? No. I did not see a baseball game until 1976, but I still love to collect cards of famous players going back to 1800's.

Regardless of how this plays out, I would rather have my money in old cardboard than the dollar bills that are being printed by the US Gov't at an astonishing pace. The only thing better would be if baseball cards were printed on precious metals like gold, silver and platinum.

[tbob]

I think the guys like Bruce Crandall and the collectors of highest ended slabbed cards will suffer the most. I also think collectors buying cards like the blue Old Mill will see a serious downward spiral in years to come.
As a baby boomer, I see a time in the next 15-20 years when much of my collection will be sold at auction as will the collections of many other baby boomers. This will depress the prices with a glut of cards coming on the market. The flip side is true collectors will be able to afford more of the cards they love.
I plan on enjoying my cards until the day I pass and hopefully a lot of other collectors will do the same. Personally I don't care if my 1909 Obak set is worth $25,000 or $250. I love the cards and that's why I got in the hobby in the first place. Sure it would be nice to have a nice nest egg for the sunset years but its all about the cardboard- either you love the cards or you don't.