Insane signings prices at the Sun Times show

isaac2004 · #1 10-30-2012, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimStinson

Just my "take" on this based on passed experience. I hope I am wrong about this but the whole contemporary autograph scene seems to be heading in the same direction as a phenomena I witnessed when I was actively doing baseball card shows in the 1980's.

I never had much to do with baseball cards except when I was a kid, but I'd set up at shows with my display cases full of vintage autographs. Most of the time I was the only autograph dealer in the room and would always get alot of "Oh's and Wow's" from people viewing what I had to sell but very little in the way of actual sales. I felt like a museum curator.

In the meantime the card dealers on either side of me , had STACKS AND STACKS of unopened boxes of baseball cards , their biggest complaint was that "They couldn't get enough product" and my biggest complaint was being afraid one of those 20 foot high stacks was going to fall on me and kill me.
I watched throughout the course of a 3 day show , customers actually loading up HANDTRUCKS full of unopened boxes of cards and wheeling them out to their cars while talking about the cards being an "INVESTMENT" in their kids college fund or retirement, or stuff like that.

I became friends with some of the card dealers and innocently asked "What are they buying so many boxes of cards for ?" I got alot of different answers but basically the condensed common theme was this.......If you had bought boxes of Topps or Bowman cards in the 1950's and then never opened them and sat on them for 30 years they would be WORTH A FORTUNE ! So the theory was to buy up all the 1980's cards you could find and just stack them in the basement and wait 30 years and they too would be worth a fortune. WRONG !!!!

At the end of the show the card dealers would ask me how I did and I'd check my wallet and tally my autograph sales and would usually end up with about $150.00 , They would laugh almost to tears. I'd ask them the same question and the numbers were staggering the guy to the right of me took in $7,000 and the guy to the left maybe $8,000 and I would shake my head and wonder why I wasn;t a baseball card dealer.

Well, most of us know what happened to all those baseball cards pristine sitting in their unopened boxes 30 years later.
Slowly I've begun to see many of the same parallels happening with autographs , I shutter when I hear the word "investment" , I'm asked all of the time "What will this autograph be worth 10 years from now ? 20 years from now ?" and my answer is usually always the same "How the heck do I know....smile, maybe if you are lucky you might be able to trade your whole collection for a cup of coffee and a loaf of bread".

But I'm afraid many of todays collectors (and dealers) somewhere along the line got stuck in the same mind set as those same card "investors" mentioned above. Buy it, slab it, stash it away for future "investment". Because its SURE to be worth more someday. Money is nice , to be sure , And collecting autographs is great fun , for a fact. But if your collecting today is motivated by "whats it gonna be worth tomorrow" well .....just think about those unopened boxes of baseball cards from the 1980's and 1990's that were mass produced to supply an artificial demand. Or that athlete sitting at a table somewhere signing 1,000 autographs a day every single weekend and maybe the two comparisons have something in common.
__________________________________
Buying and Selling Vintage autographs for over three decades
jim@stinsonsports.com

Great comment Jim and I agree with you completely, but here is my take on what you said. Those boxes of cards sitting there having no value is 100% because of the market at the time. You are right, people bought those cards by the hand truck because of the 50s and 60s and the somewhat perceived value of those cards based on scarcity. So people bought cards, and that increased demand. Card companies saw those hand trucks of cards as potential dump trucks of cash, so they kept printing cards, hence flooding the market with cards and lowering the perceived value of them. We still see this today, and that is why card companies have added inserts to "raise the stakes" so to speak because they sell so many boxes.

Autographs are different in that aspect because there isn't "mass production" of them (we are talking thousands of cards a minute), the worst you get are guys like Rollie Fingers who sign 15 times a year, lowering the value of his signature because of the sheer volume in the market. But for most players, they sign once or twice a year and their "value" of their signature stays the same, until they die, and based on volume, typically rises again, or at least levels out.

Its my 2 cents but I see a difference between the 2. The issue I have is that the figures to sign at these shows is grotesquely higher than the value of that person's signature, even including overhead for everything because the agency that represents the player wants a little more on the top.

FWIW, Willie Mays does his own thing, no agency, rarely appears at huge shows, and charges $100 for his autograph, straight profit for him with some kick back to the venue he is signing at. No chance in hell I pay $200 for Strasburg or $80 for David F'in Freese...

Mr. Zipper · #2 10-30-2012, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by isaac2004

Autographs are different in that aspect because there isn't "mass production" of them (we are talking thousands of cards a minute), the worst you get are guys like Rollie Fingers who sign 15 times a year, lowering the value of his signature because of the sheer volume in the market. But for most players, they sign once or twice a year and their "value" of their signature stays the same, until they die, and based on volume, typically rises again, or at least levels out.

I'm not so sure I agree with this. I suspect autographs are being produced in mass quantities (and I'm not even counting the endless forgeries that water down the market).

Jeter may only do one or two private signings a year, but he is cranking them out for the Steiner warehouse year round. Between private signings, direct deals with dealers, etc., etc., supply will far outweigh demand for the majority of today's players (and retired ones on the circuit).

In my opinion, if the person was alive and signing in 1990 or after, there more supply than you can imagine. Of course there are rare exceptions, but not many.

isaac2004 · #3 10-30-2012, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Zipper

In my opinion, if the person was alive and signing in 1990 or after, there more supply than you can imagine. Of course there are rare exceptions, but not many.

I agree with your statement, I was just comparing it to baseball cards in the 80s, where the stuff was everywhere..

Totally agree on signatures from people signing 1990 forward there is crazy supply for.

I guess my underlying thought is, unless Strasburg goes on to be better than Nolan Ryan (and even if he does), you will never recoup the $175 you spend on his auto, even with the COA. And I bet if he does end up better than Nolan Ryan, his auto on the circuit in the future will only go up. Would not be surprised that in 10 years, every star on the circuit will ask $150+ for their autos.

Big Dave · #4 10-30-2012, 01:37 PM

Also...if you pay the extra fee for a TPA ....you have to assume that authentication will actually add value later down the road and not become a worthless piece of paper......as in GAI .... which once was a top rated company too.

Scott Garner · #5 10-31-2012, 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Dave

Also...if you pay the extra fee for a TPA ....you have to assume that authentication will actually add value later down the road and not become a worthless piece of paper......as in GAI .... which once was a top rated company too.

So true. Who's to say what piece of paper will have ANY value in 20 years.
Collect what you like...

Exhibitman · #6 10-31-2012, 11:39 AM

I remember similar situations, Jim, when I used to set up at local shows in the early 1990s here in L.A. I'd eke out my table fee and a profit in vintage cards while yahoos would buy 100-count bricks of modern rookies. The key then, as in any pyramid scheme, was to get out before the whole thing cratered. The guys who were in and out for the quick profits did fine; the people who thought they were investing got killed.

If I want a signed item from a current signer I am probably going to go with a company-certified autographed insert card. You can get them surprisingly cheaply, esp. for the "average" HOFers, and have an item that looks good and isn't worrisome from an authenticity standpoint [I had them put into the SGC holders because I like how they look].

I don't by any means intend to criticize anyone who thinks it is worthwhile to pay for meeting a celebrity; if I came off that way I apologize. I just feel that for me, personally, it isn't worth it. That said, if I manage to get to the National next year and if there is a certain boxer/actor there again, as he has been for two years now, I will probably pony up the dough and have him sign an item for me that I think would make a great display, esepcially if his bankrupt opponent hits the signing circuit to raise some income and I can get him too:

otismalibu · #7 10-30-2012, 01:43 PM

I've mailed in a few items over the years to have signed. I'll only send an item that I feel I can get my money back out of, somewhere down the line.

As long as you're comfortable with your own authenticating skill, you really can't beat eBay. That's where most of my autos come from. I've picked up dozens of cards/flats for $25-40 that would cost approx. $130 to get signed via mail in.

drc · #8 10-30-2012, 01:51 PM

I have a friend I work with who is an old time celebrities autograph collector (mostly non-sport, but some sport), and he just enjoys going to conventions, signings and celebrity parties. That's entertainment for him. If there's a local celebrity book signing or gala, he'll attend. He has a photo album of him with all sorts of celebrities, from Dizzy Dean to Linda Lovelace. He's probably been collecting for 40 years and hasn't sold a thing-- so the resale value isn't a pressing issue.

So there's a normal collector who's in it for more than just the autograph.

A humorous thing is he has an executive position with a small but respected neighborhood non-profit playhouse (I volunteer there, which is how I know him). His job position is totally and completely unrelated to his autograph collecting, but I told him it would sound good to bidders if/when he went to sell his collection. He's never met anyone famous through his job, but 'from the estate of a playhouse executive' would sound like great provenance for celebrity autographs to many bidders.

JimStinson · #9 10-30-2012, 02:10 PM

BINGO ! and let me add to that by saying if it is worth $300.00 to anyone to meet Shaq and get his autograph (Or any other celebrity) Go for it, Nothing wrong with that at all. As long as you collect what you like and have a good time doing it

Cfern023 · #10 10-30-2012, 03:24 PM

At this point, I'd settle for $500 since Piazza rarely signs. It's driven me nuts. The last time the guy refused my money saying he needed to get his jersey's signed for his store.

Scott Garner · #11 10-31-2012, 05:51 AM

"FWIW, Willie Mays does his own thing, no agency, rarely appears at huge shows, and charges $100 for his autograph, straight profit for him with some kick back to the venue he is signing at. No chance in hell I pay $200 for Strasburg or $80 for David F'in Freese..."

Isaac,

I don't believe that Willie Mays has signed for $100 in quite a while. Plus, because of him losing his vision and health issues, his sig has become pretty sketchy at best.

I'd have to agree with you on the price of the two guys that you mentioned. If you pay those prices you will absolutely own them forever, IMHO.

Gary Dunaier · #12 11-04-2012, 01:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by isaac2004

No chance in hell I pay $200 for Strasburg or $80 for David F'in Freese...

If I had the money, AND if I were so inclined, I MIGHT consider paying $80 to have David Freese sign THIS image...

...a screen capture showing him making the final out of Johan Santana's no-hitter!

GKreindler · #13 11-04-2012, 07:25 AM

Gary, That Jaffee sketch is AMAZING. Take it with you to the grave.

Seriously, what a talent he is.

Graig

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