Auction Houses and blind bidding

Originally Posted by alanu

Shill bidding is wrong, unethical, illegal, etc., but my biggest problem is I'm addicted to the auctions and bidding and buying cards, the only way to stop shill bidding is if no one would overbid for cards and let the shillers get stuck for the cards.

Definitely. And this is really the only current way that things are kept from flying apart at the seems as they currently are.

Only issue is, again for high profile cards, what is an "overbid"?

People get their concept of fair prices from previous sales. But if all of the previous sales came from the same suspicious forum, well then you have a problem. This is precisely why many high profile cards never make it to ebay, because sellers know they would take a dive ... or when they do make it to ebay, they consign the card so that they can bid on it. Now at least on ebay some detective work can be done when this happens.

You're gonna see some people lash out at me personally here, and that's because I'm challenging something that is probably near and dear to their hearts ... something they've based a lot of their collection on and now is being questioned ... and they simply can't handle it. It's just what happens ... and is fine. Thankfully this board has a nice ignore function

It's always clear to me when someone has a weak argument because they result to personal attacks, name calling and general immature behavior. This is the kind of stuff that got a lot of the same bad seeds either kicked off CU or reprimanded there. I'm glad PSA instituted their forum rules and have found posting their a lot more enjoyable since.

But yeah, as for overbidding, thankfully there are a lot of resources to use to come up with a comfortable price ... and it's easy enough to filter out the obvious balloons. A good example is the 1978 Topps #707 Rookie Shortstops PSA 10 card:



You can clearly see how this card took a dive after coming back to reality on ebay after a stint at 2 of the AHs. Now it's reasonable for the card to have a certain increase in value as unopened material has dried up a lot, but this kind of pattern of buy high at AHs and sell low on ebay isn't uncommon for premium cards ... and there's certainly a reason for this.

The unfortunate thing is some online publications will take this latest hammer price and use that as an indicator of the new "value" of the card, when in this case, it's most likely just another balloon waiting to pop.

[yankeeno7]

I see a lot of beating on the keyboard by BBG but yet there are no solutions offered. Maybe an axe to grind with AH cuz of lost auctions? Maybe sold something and didnt get the priced expected?

Im getting a headache from all the banging but who has the Motrin?

I still say that all the transparency in the world will not do anything to stop shilling.

All anyone can do is be smart with their money. If they believe they are being shilled, be smart enough to step away from the auction. If you are bidding the price you are happy to pay, keep bidding, shilling or not.

An opinion doesnt mean squat unless you have a solution to go with it.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by yankeeno7

An opinion doesnt mean squat unless you have a solution to go with it.

This most definitely isn't true. Talk about incredible leaps in logic.

What is true is that most of the posts in this thread carry an hyper defensive tone. That is often a result of postings that hit too close to home.

Interesting thread.

[yankeeno7]

It may not be true in all cases but it fits here. But the fact is, what is an opinion without solution? It's called complaining or whining.

People can have their opinions and express them and that is always encouraged. Maybe they are looking for solutions. But when you have so much to say about it over and over again and offer nothing, its beating that dead horse and that doesnt appear to be so encouraged.

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

This most definitely isn't true. Talk about incredible leaps in logic.

What is true is that most of the posts in this thread carry an hyper defensive tone. That is often a result of postings that hit too close to home.

Interesting thread.

Well said John.

[smtjoy]

Thanks for posting the Munson cards as an example and looking at those they do look very suspect and I would refrain from bidding when I see things like that.

As I stated above, shilling and other crap happens everywhere but imo much more so on ebay. He is an example of a card I am currently watching that the pattern brings up a lot of red flags. Heck the card is for sale the 3rd time in less than 30 days, check out the bidders on the past auctions, also that many bidders with less than 100 feedback is more red flags, current bidding on new listing even more red flags, etc. You can find this daily on ebay and if not for services like VCP that can help point out these listing, I would be getting burned like I did in the past. I just wonder how many other collectors out there are getting taken in deals sales like this.

Here you go-
1911 Sporting Life TY COBB M116 (Pastel)

Current listing-
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-11-Spor...item1c2fb6c057

VCP-


Link to last two sales-
1/24/13 Sale-
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-11-Spor...p2047675.l2557

1/13/13 Sale-
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-11-Spor...p2047675.l2557

Funny how all three auctions have the exact same titles.....

Interested to see what others think about this as its not clear cut shilling but imo looks more like possible manipulation of pricing/value.

[Matthew H]

Paul,

When you consign something to an auction house they promote it, take it to shows and mail out catalogs. The prospective buyer sometimes has months to prepare. Listing on eBay is like dropping a needle in a haystack and hoping someone notices it within 7 days. Whoever notices it also needs to have the cash ready. You can't really compare the two as a level playing field.

[Jaybird]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

Paul,

When you consign something to an auction house they promote it, take it to shows and mail out catalogs. The prospective buyer sometimes has months to prepare. Listing on eBay is like dropping a needle in a haystack and hoping someone notices it within 7 days. Whoever notices it also needs to have the cash ready. You can't really compare the two as a level playing field.

agreed. What if I'm a big whale on a particular item and I'm on vacation for a week. If it was an auction, I would have received the catalog and had time to look at the preview. Discussions on message boards would have taken place and in the end I would know exactly when it was ending (date and time). Hard to compare that to someone listing an item on ebay on Tuesday at 8PM amongst their garden tools and tube socks.

[Wymers Auction]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

Paul,

When you consign something to an auction house they promote it, take it to shows and mail out catalogs. The prospective buyer sometimes has months to prepare. Listing on eBay is like dropping a needle in a haystack and hoping someone notices it within 7 days. Whoever notices it also needs to have the cash ready. You can't really compare the two as a level playing field.

Well stated Matthew. Millions of bidders, but your auction only gets 100 views.

[smtjoy]

Originally Posted by smtjoy

Thanks for posting the Munson cards as an example and looking at those they do look very suspect and I would refrain from bidding when I see things like that.

As I stated above, shilling and other crap happens everywhere but imo much more so on ebay. He is an example of a card I am currently watching that the pattern brings up a lot of red flags. Heck the card is for sale the 3rd time in less than 30 days, check out the bidders on the past auctions, also that many bidders with less than 100 feedback is more red flags, current bidding on new listing even more red flags, etc. You can find this daily on ebay and if not for services like VCP that can help point out these listing, I would be getting burned like I did in the past. I just wonder how many other collectors out there are getting taken in deals sales like this.

Here you go-
1911 Sporting Life TY COBB M116 (Pastel)

Current listing-
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-11-Spor...item1c2fb6c057

VCP-


Link to last two sales-
1/24/13 Sale-
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-11-Spor...p2047675.l2557

1/13/13 Sale-
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-11-Spor...p2047675.l2557

Funny how all three auctions have the exact same titles.....

Interested to see what others think about this as its not clear cut shilling but imo looks more like possible manipulation of pricing/value.

Funny so the auction above ended not reaching the reserve with this winner below, lol and already listed again-

4***p( 0 )
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 31
Items bid on: 15
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 87%
Bid retractions: 0
Bid retractions (6 months): 0

Originally Posted by smtjoy

Funny so the auction above ended not reaching the reserve with this winner below, lol and already listed again-

4***p( 0 )
30-Day Summary
Total bids: 31
Items bid on: 15
Bid activity (%) with this seller: 87%
Bid retractions: 0
Bid retractions (6 months): 0

That's messed up, and thanks to what I call "semi-transparency", ebay allows you to see this, and at least have some info to go on.

With the AHs this can be happening anywhere, and you'd have no idea, and no recourse.

[whitehse]

Originally Posted by bubblebathgirl

Definitely. And this is really the only current way that things are kept from flying apart at the seems as they currently are.

Only issue is, again for high profile cards, what is an "overbid"?

People get their concept of fair prices from previous sales. But if all of the previous sales came from the same suspicious forum, well then you have a problem. This is precisely why many high profile cards never make it to ebay, because sellers know they would take a dive ... or when they do make it to ebay, they consign the card so that they can bid on it. Now at least on ebay some detective work can be done when this happens.

You're gonna see some people lash out at me personally here, and that's because I'm challenging something that is probably near and dear to their hearts ... something they've based a lot of their collection on and now is being questioned ... and they simply can't handle it. It's just what happens ... and is fine. Thankfully this board has a nice ignore function
It's always clear to me when someone has a weak argument because they result to personal attacks, name calling and general immature behavior. This is the kind of stuff that got a lot of the same bad seeds either kicked off CU or reprimanded there. I'm glad PSA instituted their forum rules and have found posting their a lot more enjoyable since.

But yeah, as for overbidding, thankfully there are a lot of resources to use to come up with a comfortable price ... and it's easy enough to filter out the obvious balloons. A good example is the 1978 Topps #707 Rookie Shortstops PSA 10 card:



You can clearly see how this card took a dive after coming back to reality on ebay after a stint at 2 of the AHs. Now it's reasonable for the card to have a certain increase in value as unopened material has dried up a lot, but this kind of pattern of buy high at AHs and sell low on ebay isn't uncommon for premium cards ... and there's certainly a reason for this.

The unfortunate thing is some online publications will take this latest hammer price and use that as an indicator of the new "value" of the card, when in this case, it's most likely just another balloon waiting to pop.

I think this (and you) are now laughable.

A bit about me.......

I have NEVER placed a bid in an auction house auction. I honestly do not have the money to do so due to my spouse's illness.

I rarely bid in Ebay auctions and when I do it is usually a 10 dollar item so shill bidding is normally not an issue with me. My collection comes directly from what I have in my possession over my 40 years of collecting and face to face transactions at card shows.

Since I DO NOT bid in any auction house auctions and I rarely bid on Ebay I honestly dont give a crap about this issue. I am even more happy about the way I purchase anything for my collection after seeing the various Probstein threads on many boards and seeing how Mastro and others have treated bidders in their auctions. My beef with you is how you continue to beat the drum on this issue and REFUSE to even listen to anyone else's opinion and your continued resolve to show everyone else how freaking right you are.

You have made your point now move on. You have now posted your crap on two sections of the Net54 boards and all over the CU boards. Whats next? Blowout? FCB?

As for the ignore button on these boards....you dont need it because it seems your brain has everyone who doesnt buy into your way of thinking on ignore anyway!!

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by bubblebathgirl

It's always clear to me when someone has a weak argument because they result to personal attacks, name calling and general immature behavior.

I recommend some other method for determining the strength of opposing arguments. Sometimes people 'result' to such tactics because they simply don't like you very much.

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by bubblebathgirl

Definitely. And this is really the only current way that things are kept from flying apart at the seems as they currently are.

Only issue is, again for high profile cards, what is an "overbid"?

People get their concept of fair prices from previous sales. But if all of the previous sales came from the same suspicious forum, well then you have a problem. This is precisely why many high profile cards never make it to ebay, because sellers know they would take a dive ... or when they do make it to ebay, they consign the card so that they can bid on it. Now at least on ebay some detective work can be done when this happens.

You're gonna see some people lash out at me personally here, and that's because I'm challenging something that is probably near and dear to their hearts ... something they've based a lot of their collection on and now is being questioned ... and they simply can't handle it. It's just what happens ... and is fine. Thankfully this board has a nice ignore function

It's always clear to me when someone has a weak argument because they result to personal attacks, name calling and general immature behavior. This is the kind of stuff that got a lot of the same bad seeds either kicked off CU or reprimanded there. I'm glad PSA instituted their forum rules and have found posting their a lot more enjoyable since.

But yeah, as for overbidding, thankfully there are a lot of resources to use to come up with a comfortable price ... and it's easy enough to filter out the obvious balloons. A good example is the 1978 Topps #707 Rookie Shortstops PSA 10 card:



You can clearly see how this card took a dive after coming back to reality on ebay after a stint at 2 of the AHs. Now it's reasonable for the card to have a certain increase in value as unopened material has dried up a lot, but this kind of pattern of buy high at AHs and sell low on ebay isn't uncommon for premium cards ... and there's certainly a reason for this.

The unfortunate thing is some online publications will take this latest hammer price and use that as an indicator of the new "value" of the card, when in this case, it's most likely just another balloon waiting to pop.

Or maybe it's a case of once the buyer with the most money bought his copy, he didn't need to bid on the second one. Then when the buyer with the second most money got his, he didn't need to bid on the third one.

[OTWCards]

Originally Posted by bubblebathgirl

You're gonna see some people lash out at me personally here, and that's because I'm challenging something that is probably near and dear to their hearts ... something they've based a lot of their collection on and now is being questioned ... and they simply can't handle it. It's just what happens ... and is fine. Thankfully this board has a nice ignore function

It's always clear to me when someone has a weak argument because they result to personal attacks, name calling and general immature behavior. This is the kind of stuff that got a lot of the same bad seeds either kicked off CU or reprimanded there. I'm glad PSA instituted their forum rules and have found posting their a lot more enjoyable since.

Ignore is a convenient excuse to avoid answering.

Just because someone disagrees doesn't mean they are resorting to insults or can't handle your assessment.

Knowledge is key. In many instances, there isn't enough recent information to extrapolate price points from "recent" sales. Sure, traveling in the modern circle presents a myriad of sales, but a majority on this board consider modern to be anything manufactured after WWII, not 1990...

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by bubblebathgirl

Almost five racks for a Paul Molitor RC

The market is literally begging for card doctoring.

[MikeU]

Originally Posted by bubblebathgirl

Definitely. And this is really the only current way that things are kept from flying apart at the seems as they currently are.

Only issue is, again for high profile cards, what is an "overbid"?

People get their concept of fair prices from previous sales. But if all of the previous sales came from the same suspicious forum, well then you have a problem. This is precisely why many high profile cards never make it to ebay, because sellers know they would take a dive ... or when they do make it to ebay, they consign the card so that they can bid on it. Now at least on ebay some detective work can be done when this happens.

You're gonna see some people lash out at me personally here, and that's because I'm challenging something that is probably near and dear to their hearts ... something they've based a lot of their collection on and now is being questioned ... and they simply can't handle it. It's just what happens ... and is fine. Thankfully this board has a nice ignore function

It's always clear to me when someone has a weak argument because they result to personal attacks, name calling and general immature behavior. This is the kind of stuff that got a lot of the same bad seeds either kicked off CU or reprimanded there. I'm glad PSA instituted their forum rules and have found posting their a lot more enjoyable since.

But yeah, as for overbidding, thankfully there are a lot of resources to use to come up with a comfortable price ... and it's easy enough to filter out the obvious balloons. A good example is the 1978 Topps #707 Rookie Shortstops PSA 10 card:



You can clearly see how this card took a dive after coming back to reality on ebay after a stint at 2 of the AHs. Now it's reasonable for the card to have a certain increase in value as unopened material has dried up a lot, but this kind of pattern of buy high at AHs and sell low on ebay isn't uncommon for premium cards ... and there's certainly a reason for this.

The unfortunate thing is some online publications will take this latest hammer price and use that as an indicator of the new "value" of the card, when in this case, it's most likely just another balloon waiting to pop.

Instead of the blanket term auction houses, research across multiple cards and see if there is some statistical significance with a certain auction house(s) that appears shill friendly. At the same time, which auction house(s) appear to be non-shill friendly. If a shill friendly auction house surfaces, the obvious statement will be that we have the best reputation and marketing department in the land and thus have the most big shark accounts in the industry and these sharks don't like to buy on eBay. This may have some validity actually. So the data can be misleading and dangerous.

How about make a software program that cross references registered bidders i.e. phone numbers, addresses and if they are match they are black balled and published in perpetuity as shills. Doesn't help friends and family. Could do a reference for last names or maiden names of spouse, which all gets a little dicey, but could be refined. Then the auction house can claim they are the best in the business at ousting and preventing shilling and truly wants to help the hobby with sharing the information.