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#1
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Craig, that's almost too huge a scenario to get my brain around, but I believe the reason these TPA's have been successful is not because they are authenticating real autographs (and thus rendering forgeries valueless), but rather because they have allowed more product into the hobby, the result being that more people who want 'Ruth' (and other) autographs can buy them. The TPA's give us more autographs, cheaper autographs, and a false sense of security.
The market for autographs of dead people is getting bigger, but the dead people are no longer signing anything. Because of this, I believe that if the TPA's go away, more TPA's will arise.
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...and a sort of related comment: this forum allows us to protect ourselves, but I don't think it usually does much for the rest of the autograph collectors out there. If it did, we'd be hearing back from guys who win items that we have deemed to be forgeries. Instead, we are only hearing whining from consignors who don't want us questioning them.
A forum member's getting REA to force the consignor of the recent pile of Ruth pictures into a corner, and withdraw them, is a big step forward for the hobby. I hope we see more of that - then we really will be influencing collectors who are outside this board.
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