What the future holds in the autograph industry

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Brent, I'm missing you and Dan's point. If there were no forgers, everything would be authentic, so of course you wouldn't need anyone (TPA) to identify something as being a forgery. And since TPA's are businesses, they have to make money. To me it's all about how they run their business. Even if you assume they are completely honest, they aren't doing the job we are paying them to do.

I spoke with Ben yesterday and gave him a detailed example from my personal experience, where I am absolutely positive that a TPA authenticated forgeries, and when I asked them to take a second look they said they did, but they absolutely did not. Why? Because the time it would take to actually examine the autographs would kill their profit. That's what I find disgusting, and that's why their LOA's are absolutely worthless to me.

I think what Dan was stating that sometimes there comes an item that the TPA knows it's a forgery, and certify it because of the rarity of the specific item and potential historical significance. Like the PSA 8 Wagner, everyone knew it was trimmed, and that was the very first card I believe PSA certified, so it was huge in regards to marketing PSA.

I hope that helped explain our stance a little.

[mschwade]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I think what Dan was stating that sometimes there comes an item that the TPA knows it's a forgery, and certify it because of the rarity of the specific item and potential historical significance. Like the PSA 8 Wagner, everyone knew it was trimmed, and that was the very first card I believe PSA certified, so it was huge in regards to marketing PSA.

I hope that helped explain our stance a little.

Fitting because it sounds like the Steroid Era of baseball to me... Not thinking about the long term hit to their character when the truth comes out, only that they were the big thing when they played.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I think what Dan was stating that sometimes there comes an item that the TPA knows it's a forgery, and certify it because of the rarity of the specific item and potential historical significance. Like the PSA 8 Wagner, everyone knew it was trimmed, and that was the very first card I believe PSA certified, so it was huge in regards to marketing PSA.

I hope that helped explain our stance a little.

Gotcha - thanks. I know TPA's holder trimmed cards, and based on what others (with better eyeballs than me) have said, if accidental it's through employee ineptitude, and if an experienced employee did it, it's criminal. But I don't agree with you that the TPA's intentionally holder high-$ forged autographs. I believe it's simply ineptitude.

edited to add - the above is in regard to PSA and JSA - certainly many of the other TPA's are fraudulent.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Gotcha - thanks. I know TPA's holder trimmed cards, and based on what others (with better eyeballs than me) have said, if accidental it's through employee ineptitude, and if an experienced employee did it, it's criminal. But I don't agree with you that the TPA's intentionally holder high-$ forged autographs. I believe it's simply ineptitude.

edited to add - the above is in regard to PSA and JSA - certainly many of the other TPA's are fraudulent.

I agree, it's certainly not as common, and ISA and all the other crap slab reprints. I guess I miss-spoke saying intentionally certify, but it just seems like it with how many Ruth's have been withdrawn for HA

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I agree, it's certainly not as common, and ISA and all the other crap slab reprints. I guess I miss-spoke saying intentionally certify, but it just seems like it with how many Ruth's have been withdrawn for HA

A lot of people do believe that the slabbing is malicious, and with the TPA's refusing to address their image problem (although I doubt they see it as a problem), believing it is intentional is reasonable. All the TPA's have to do is state that it's ineptitude and that they will try to hire better authenticators.

I was digging around, looking for an example of a particular Babe Ruth style signature, and found this site. Others have probably already discussed it:

http://www.angelfire.com/biz5/puru777/ruthpiece.htm

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by Runscott

A lot of people do believe that the slabbing is malicious, and with the TPA's refusing to address their image problem (although I doubt they see it as a problem), believing it is intentional is reasonable. All the TPA's have to do is state that it's ineptitude and that they will try to hire better authenticators.

I was digging around, looking for an example of a particular Babe Ruth style signature, and found this site. Others have probably already discussed it:

http://www.angelfire.com/biz5/puru777/ruthpiece.htm

Well said, Scott. I wish there could be more interaction with the graders when you submit, like getting a reason for the grade or pass/fail (I understand it would cost more). I have submitted a card to get numerically graded, and thought it came half a grade or two grades less than what it should have, and I called and had them re-look it (no bump ) and the customer service rep explained to me what they told her and put a sticky note on the slab with an arrow pointing to the issue.

I feel like reasoning behind the madness would help out so much more with many of these issues.

But I really do appreciate everyone's posts and thoughts so far, it's very insightful in helping me with my decision.

[mr2686]

I believe the future of the hobby depends on what you're in it for. If you're looking for your own personal collection to keep and enjoy, you're probably going to be looking to purchase from the well known dealers (Stinson, Simon, Corcoran, Keating, etc etc) and you'll be happy knowing that you have a high probability of having authentic autographs that you didn't have to see signed. If, however, you're looking to be able to flip an autograph and want the average Joe to feel comfortable buying your "product" at a higher price, then you'll probably look for the alphabet authenticators and you'll be less likely to have an authentic autograph (not all, but more will fall through the cracks due to high volume, lack of knowledge/exemplars and negligence).
For me, the future is going back to the beginning. I started out collecting hof balls and having hof'ers signed my hof book. I branched out to famous teams and famous players and deceased hof'ers, but I'm finishing up a lot of those projects and feel with the state of the hobby that I'll be going back to getting signed balls of living hof'ers. I have a backlog of players to get over the last few years and of course there's always new ones each year, so it will still be fun.
While a lot of these threads have been going on the last several days, I was reminded how much fun this hobby is by two events. The first was that I started working on getting a lot of my stuff matted and framed (about 12 new ones done so far and another 10 or so in que for the next week or so...by the way, get yourself a good frame shop that can do your matting and then wait for some good sales at any chain frame shop and you can get a lot of your stuff up on the walls, looking good, for pretty cheap). The actual process of getting your stuff matted/framed and deciding what would look good together as displayed is so enjoyable, and of course sitting back and looking at the result is priceless.
The second thing was an unsilicited copy of the SCD that showed up in the mail (3 years after discontinuing my subscription, I guess they want me back). Anyway, the magazine is smaller in size but thicker than in recent years which reminded me of the 80's when it was the size of the old Sporting News and about an inch think. Man those days were fun...getting the new issue on a Thursday and spending the next several hours looking for things for your collection. A lot of old hof'ers that would sign at shows that you could mail order (some didn't seem to come out to the West Coast so that was really cool). Fun days indeed.
Anyway, I've blathered long enough, but before I go, I have a Babe Ruth for sale...

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by mr2686

I believe the future of the hobby depends on what you're in it for. If you're looking for your own personal collection to keep and enjoy, you're probably going to be looking to purchase from the well known dealers (Stinson, Simon, Corcoran, Keating, etc etc) and you'll be happy knowing that you have a high probability of having authentic autographs that you didn't have to see signed. If, however, you're looking to be able to flip an autograph and want the average Joe to feel comfortable buying your "product" at a higher price, then you'll probably look for the alphabet authenticators and you'll be less likely to have an authentic autograph (not all, but more will fall through the cracks due to high volume, lack of knowledge/exemplars and negligence).
For me, the future is going back to the beginning. I started out collecting hof balls and having hof'ers signed my hof book. I branched out to famous teams and famous players and deceased hof'ers, but I'm finishing up a lot of those projects and feel with the state of the hobby that I'll be going back to getting signed balls of living hof'ers. I have a backlog of players to get over the last few years and of course there's always new ones each year, so it will still be fun.
While a lot of these threads have been going on the last several days, I was reminded how much fun this hobby is by two events. The first was that I started working on getting a lot of my stuff matted and framed (about 12 new ones done so far and another 10 or so in que for the next week or so...by the way, get yourself a good frame shop that can do your matting and then wait for some good sales at any chain frame shop and you can get a lot of your stuff up on the walls, looking good, for pretty cheap). The actual process of getting your stuff matted/framed and deciding what would look good together as displayed is so enjoyable, and of course sitting back and looking at the result is priceless.
The second thing was an unsilicited copy of the SCD that showed up in the mail (3 years after discontinuing my subscription, I guess they want me back). Anyway, the magazine is smaller in size but thicker than in recent years which reminded me of the 80's when it was the size of the old Sporting News and about an inch think. Man those days were fun...getting the new issue on a Thursday and spending the next several hours looking for things for your collection. A lot of old hof'ers that would sign at shows that you could mail order (some didn't seem to come out to the West Coast so that was really cool). Fun days indeed.
Anyway, I've blathered long enough, but before I go, I have a Babe Ruth for sale...

I do a majority of my purchases on the bay, but I always research first or ask for opinions. I'm not in it for the money, just strictly collecting, and at times I may sell to upgrade etc. I do a lot of trading/buying/selling with collectors here which I highly prefer over over avenues.

I mainly do cards, but have a couple of really cool pieces I have framed. Back in the '80's, Donruss inserted puzzle pieces into packs of cards. I completed all of the puzzles from the players (like Musial, Spahn, Snider, Stargell etc.) and glued them to a mat and got them signed and framed, so they look pretty cool.

[mr2686]

Brent, I too loved those puzzles as well as those HOF Heroes cards from Donruss. Great things to have signed.

[shelly]

Not only the forgers win but so do the TPA's it becomes there world is all about the money and you can believe me with out each other they all fold up. I said that on the other page.
The next thing is if you start to believe the feel good stories that are poping all over the place with no real back ground but the consigner says. You will also be in for a world of hurt. I
I don't mind being ignored I do mind my ideas being steped on.

[mighty bombjack]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

Back in the '80's, Donruss inserted puzzle pieces into packs of cards. I completed all of the puzzles from the players (like Musial, Spahn, Snider, Stargell etc.) and glued them to a mat and got them signed and framed, so they look pretty cool.

I loved those, but don't think I've seen any signed. Got photos?

[shelly]

Originally Posted by mighty bombjack

I loved those, but don't think I've seen any signed. Got photos?

I think this is why people dont learn or care to learn anything.
What does this have to do with the subject.
This is a perfect way of showing your concern.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by mr2686

I have a Babe Ruth for sale...

Is it on a card

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I think what Dan was stating that sometimes there comes an item that the TPA knows it's a forgery, and certify it because of the rarity of the specific item and potential historical significance. Like the PSA 8 Wagner, everyone knew it was trimmed, and that was the very first card I believe PSA certified, so it was huge in regards to marketing PSA.

I hope that helped explain our stance a little.

I was thinking more along the lines of the symbiotic relationship they have...how hard do they really want to rid the hobby of forgery since they basically make their living off of it. It makes me ponder the secretive nature of this business.... I don't believe that JSA or PSA intentionally holder bad autos though. Obviously there are TPA's that are the go to guys for the forgers and these autos usually end up at CC or in your local "estate" auction.

[Runscott]

Please don't yell at me for going off-topic, but all this discussion of bad autographs, blind collectors and unscrupulous TPA's and forgers made me think of this:

[shelly]

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

I was thinking more along the lines of the symbiotic relationship they have...how hard do they really want to rid the hobby of forgery since they basically make their living off of it. It makes me ponder the secretive nature of this business.... I don't believe that JSA or PSA intentionally holder bad autos though. Obviously there are TPA's that are the go to guys for the forgers and these autos usually end up at CC or in your local "estate" auction.

No on is saying on purpose. I am saying once a forger can get them to authenticate his items they are his for life. There are people on here that no the story of he miniture autograh Rurth balls. That well know authenticator has been chaseing those ball to be the authenticator to protect himself. People like Richard, Jim, Ron and few others laugh when we see it happen. It is hard to go back and admit a mistake. I think the difference between the go to guys is price. Garbage is Garbage.

[packs]

I know I'm having a great time looking for pieces that I like. JSA and PSA don't hinder me from doing that. I couldn't care less about the "future" as I am only interested in the past.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by packs

I know I'm having a great time looking for pieces that I like. JSA and PSA don't hinder me from doing that. I couldn't care less about the "future" as I am only interested in the past.

They may be indirectly hindering you. Jim S has said that he thinks forgers are getting better and better, to the point that they can create forgeries that are indistinguishable from the real deal. If their quality has at least improved a great deal, that may be because the legitimate TPA's (JSA and PSA) forced them to get better.

I don't know for sure, as I wasn't collecting autographs back then, but to me it's reasonable to believe that before JSA and PSA, people HAD to buy from honest, good sellers, and/or if they were willing to study legitimate exemplars and become experts themselves (as opposed to blindly relying on TPA's and AH's), their chances of purchasing a real Ruth were much better than they are today, since the forgeries weren't as good. I hope that makes sense, but perhaps I'm completely incorrect.

[shelly]

Originally Posted by Runscott

They may be indirectly hindering you. Jim S has said that he thinks forgers are getting better and better, to the point that they can create forgeries that are indistinguishable from the real deal. If their quality has at least improved a great deal, that may be because the legitimate TPA's (JSA and PSA) forced them to get better.

I don't know for sure, as I wasn't collecting autographs back then, but to me it's reasonable to believe that before JSA and PSA, people HAD to buy from honest, good sellers, and/or if they were willing to study legitimate exemplars and become experts themselves (as opposed to blindly relying on TPA's and AH's), their chances of purchasing a real Ruth were much better than they are today, since the forgeries weren't as good. I hope that makes sense, but perhaps I'm completely incorrect.

Hello, that is what I have been trying to say. The are getting better than the authenticators. Once that happens your sunk. I think the advice of getting better equipment and doing data testing might help. If they keep on doing like they are there percentage of real vs fake will drop below fifty percent. When that happens you can flip and coin and save yourself a lot of money.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by shelly

Hello, that is what I have been trying to say. The are getting better than the authenticators. Once that happens your sunk.

I think it's worse than that, and it's the crux of why we have so many fights on this forum - it's true that forgers are passing a very high % of bad Ruths and Gehrigs (etc.) right by the two legitimate TPA's, but what's worse is that when we bring these up for discussion on this forum, where we have experts who are better than those that the TPA's use, some of our guys give the bad autographs the green light And because of the massive egos, disagreement=fight.

Take that '700 HR' Ruth ticket - many say it's good, many say it's not. But the same guy who started off by saying he's 100% positive it's bad, is the only expert (maybe there are two - also a non-board member?) here who thinks the green-ink '27 Yankees ball is good. It's really mind-boggling how much disagreement there is right here.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by shelly

No on is saying on purpose. I am saying once a forger can get them to authenticate his items they are his for life. There are people on here that no the story of he miniture autograh Rurth balls. That well know authenticator has been chaseing those ball to be the authenticator to protect himself. People like Richard, Jim, Ron and few others laugh when we see it happen. It is hard to go back and admit a mistake. I think the difference between the go to guys is price. Garbage is Garbage.

I agree Shelly, I was just addressing something that was brought up in this thread that I wrote in another thread. Don't want people to misunderstand my words.