Is the baseball card market a "perfect" market? The Demise of the "price guide"

novakjr · #1 06-27-2013, 10:08 AM

I've always thought that the standard catalog(and most price guides) did a poor job of pricing. Obviously, I don't think that their intentions was to necessarily have accurate pricing though. For what it is, I think they did a good job. But it's fairly obvious that for the most part the cards in any set were pretty much just priced in "suggested tiers"... common, semi, low end HOF, typical HOF, and then the high end guys (like Ruth, Gehrig).. Very little attention payed to specifics(especially in pre-war) for things like Rookie consideration... In many pre-war listings, there are rookies of HOFers(or cards that could be considered a rookie depending on an individuals criteria) that are just lumped in with the typical comparable HOFer price-wise. When in reality, they seem to command a little more of a premium in the open market, due to their being a growing number of rookie collectors. I'm sorry, but a (reasonably considerable) "rookie" of a HOF player is worth more than a comparable HOFer who is in his 16th season...

Yes, I know the rookie thing in terms of pre-war is somewhat subjective, and almost a taboo topic with some collectors, but to completely ignore it as a factor in this suggested pricing is kinda silly.. If a premium can be given to Yankees/Dodgers in the pricing, then one should also be given to actual (or potentially acceptable) rookies...

If this same pricing were applied to modern cards, then I guess a 1982 Topps Cal Ripken rookie would be worth the same a 1982 Topps Nolan Ryan.. Or the 1978 Topps Paul Molitor rookie would be worth the same as a 1978 Topps Rod Carew... Ridiculous, right?

For the record, I really only use these as checklists too...

Leon · #2 06-27-2013, 10:12 AM

The last Beckett guide I looked at, 1 yr ago, was spot on for vintage pricing. I tried my hardest and couldn't find an error. We gave out around 10-20 of them at the last dinner and I never heard from anyone that said there were glaring errors in the vintage section. I didn't look at the newer cards as I have no interest in them. As for the Krause big book, it's hit or miss, imo.....LL

glchen · #3 06-27-2013, 10:27 AM

I think the prices in the price guides are still good from a relative standpoint. For example, you might not realize that the Stengel is a short print in the Maple Crispette set unless you saw the price for that card relative to the other cards in the price guide. Another example is Moe Berg in the 1933 Goudey set, who a collector new to the set may just think should be priced like a common.

Rich Klein · #4 06-27-2013, 11:02 AM

No, no guide can ever be perfect because we are in many cases shooting at a moving target.

In addition, especially in the thinly traded sets, one or two big sales or sales below expectiations can certainly change the perception of what something is worth.

As for VCP remember that not all "6's" are truly alike as some may be technically a six but not look as nice as cards which are 4's.

Where cataloguers and pricers have to make sure they are correct is in the checklisting of information. Because pricing can always be adjusted but bad data is much harder to fix.

For those thinly traded vintage sets my goals were thus

1) Get the checklist IN and correctly
2) Get an image for the card so we could see what said card in a set looked like
3) Get the pricing right.

Remember Step 3 is easier to do when steps 1 and 2 are completed.

And for Beckett, getting Steps 1 and 2 right are even more important since BGS and COMC, among others, needs to use those checklists.

Step 3 is also important but can wait for 1 and 2

Rich

arc2q · #5 06-27-2013, 11:52 AM

I agree they are growing in obsolescene from the days when a price guide was the primary source of such information. It seems almost comical when you see auction descriptions say something like, "The card is worth $1500." It is worth what it sells for at auction -- something you will find out conclusively in 6d23h. Auctions are not a perfect market but they are far more reliable as a price determination than a price guide which may be based on total speculation.

I wonder why price guides like SMR have to be published every month? They seem to be using up a lot of content space for reprinting the same list (which is dubious to begin with) each month -- and they never change. They only list certain sets and then refer you online for other sets. Why not vary which sets are included in the price guide each month?

The thing that bugs me in price guides are the modern card listings (I have said this before so it is almost like my mantra). They throw around values that you know are totally made up and it is what leads to ridiculous bubbles. How does anyone know what the limited edition, signed, orange chrome, refractor card of the next supposed superstar rookie would really be worth when it has only been printed and available for two weeks and has never properly been exposed to the market? Yet they'll stick some number like $10000 next to it. Who would pay $10000 for a card printed last week of a player who probably has 3,000,000 different cards in print anyway?

Rich Klein · #6 06-27-2013, 11:57 AM

there are far more people interested in those happy shiny cards then they are in vintage cards -- and the market is actually very active on those cards.

While we can discuss the merits of planned scarcity/rarity against the natural selection of scarcity/Rarity; just remember that is a very active market (obviously not on this site) and those cards and players are traded very actively.

In many cases (not all) a Mike Trout signed to 25 is going to be priced farily closely to another signed Trout of 25. This does not work for all sets but more than you think there is.

In oither words, for about 99 percent of the market; NEW is where it is at and if you don't get pricing up ASAP -- the natives get very restless.

Rich

glynparson · #7 06-27-2013, 12:40 PM

in the vintage market on many/most items.

arc2q · #8 06-27-2013, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

there are far more people interested in those happy shiny cards then they are in vintage cards -- and the market is actually very active on those cards.

While we can discuss the merits of planned scarcity/rarity against the natural selection of scarcity/Rarity; just remember that is a very active market (obviously not on this site) and those cards and players are traded very actively.

In many cases (not all) a Mike Trout signed to 25 is going to be priced farily closely to another signed Trout of 25. This does not work for all sets but more than you think there is.

In oither words, for about 99 percent of the market; NEW is where it is at and if you don't get pricing up ASAP -- the natives get very restless.

Rich

Rich-
You're absolutely right; I am being a vintage card snob in my comments. It is true that they are very popular (and I like them too -- I have a couple of the latest higher value cards of players I like). It just seems that reliance on pricing guides was more relevant/necessary when knowledge was harder to obtain. But with eBay and other online sites that track actual sales it would seem more appropriate to base value on what these cards actually sell for rather than what one magazine says it ought to be worth.

I shouldn't disparage modern card so much though. I do secretly still buy them.
Andy

tschock · #9 06-27-2013, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arc2q

I wonder why price guides like SMR have to be published every month? They seem to be using up a lot of content space for reprinting the same list (which is dubious to begin with) each month -- and they never change. They only list certain sets and then refer you online for other sets. Why not vary which sets are included in the price guide each month?

I think there are at least 3 reasons for this.

A ) To promote TPG (specifically, PSA).
B ) To promote the idea that there is "real" value to TPG cards.
C ) To act as an actual TPG "price guide".

This is my view on order of intent, but that can be argued.

And speaking of never changing...

I have March 2003 (monthly) Beckett VINTAGE magazine (remember those?) that I carry around to shows. Not as a price guide, but more as a reference. The interesting thing about the price guide aspect, as it relates specifically to POST-war cards, is that for all but a few star cases and some commons, the prices are NO different in this 10 year-old magazine than they are in one of the latest monthly baseball Becketts. Food for thought as to the "value" of those cards or the necessity for monthly "update" price guides.

Rich Klein · #10 06-27-2013, 01:35 PM

There has been movement in the vintage card world and that will eventually get into the magazine and annual guides as well.

Some cards will move up. some will move down -- but overall if you think about that, a 1960 Hank Bauer is not really going to change much in price for a long long time.

Ridh

Julz24 · #11 06-27-2013, 11:07 PM

And speaking of never changing...

I have March 2003 (monthly) Beckett VINTAGE magazine (remember those?) that I carry around to shows. Not as a price guide, but more as a reference. The interesting thing about the price guide aspect, as it relates specifically to POST-war cards, is that for all but a few star cases and some commons, the prices are NO different in this 10 year-old magazine than they are in one of the latest monthly baseball Becketts. Food for thought as to the "value" of those cards or the necessity for monthly "update" price guides.[/QUOTE]

Interesting. I actually do the same thing In a way. The only price guide I use as a reference is a modern card checklist from 1999. If the price in the checklist is around $50, I know I should be able to pick it up for less than $10. If the price is $100, I can probably find it for $10-25. There are however a handful of cards that are actually worth more than they used to be.

My wallet is always thanking me for not collecting heavily during the late 90's - early to mid 00...

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