The future of rare backs/variations...

poorlydrawncat · #1 03-14-2014, 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Unfortunately...I predict NO! While I agree with you...in that the allure of these cards is their relative scarcity as compared to their American counterparts...the mass majority does not seem to agree! No set will ever achieve the ridiculous analysis/paralysis...hyperinflation of T206...NONE!

What do you think it is about the T206 set that makes people analyze it the way they do? Do you think it's a passing fad or is it just the natural progression of the hobby as people run out of things to talk about and obsess over?

I can't think of another set anywhere near as esoteric as the T206 set has become.

ullmandds · #2 03-14-2014, 07:09 AM

I'd surmise that having the most famous card in the hobby in the set would be a good starting point to explaining the progression of the "success" of t206.

poorlydrawncat · #3 03-14-2014, 07:16 AM

Totally true. Although I feel something like a Mickey Mantle Venezuelan should still be in more demand, given his popularity. Not that I'm complaining, I love being able to afford them

ullmandds · #4 03-14-2014, 07:23 AM

Sure...a venezuelan MM would be very desirable to a hardcore yankee/mickey mantle collector...but to anyone else...not so much!

ullmandds · #5 03-14-2014, 07:24 AM

If T206 were only issued with 1 brand/type of cigarette...it's popularity would not come close to what it is now.

I Only Smoke 4 the Cards · #6 03-14-2014, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds

If T206 were only issued with 1 brand/type of cigarette...it's popularity would not come close to what it is now.

That's an interesting thought.

darwinbulldog · #7 03-14-2014, 09:13 AM

If Burdick hadn't classified them as one set there wouldn't be as much interest.

Bestdj777 · #8 03-14-2014, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Sure...a venezuelan MM would be very desirable to a hardcore yankee/mickey mantle collector...but to anyone else...not so much!

Agreed. Personally, I would love to own all of the Venezuelan Mantles (3 short right now), but I believe I am in the minority. I don't view the Venezuelans as a variety but rather a separate set, and I think most others agree. So, people working on a run of Topps Mantle cards do not need to get the Venezuelan versions to complete their sets. And, if you don't need it, why spent PSA 8 U.S. Topps prices on a Venezuelan card that would grade authentic or PSA 1 at best? There just isn't the incentive.

Plus, as an aside, I believe there are a substantial number of casual collectors that are unaware there was even a set produced in Venezuela. I got into a discussion with one of the employees at my local baseball card shop, and he had no clue about the set either.

I do not see there ever being the interest in these sets. And, I am pretty happy about that. The prices are insane for Venezuelans, and I don't think I'd ever be able to complete that run if they picked up in popularity.

darkhorse9 · #9 03-14-2014, 09:49 AM

I agree that Burdick is to blame.

I never understood why T206 should all be in one set, yet things like the MSA discs of the 1970's are all separate issues.

ullmandds · #10 03-14-2014, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse9

I agree that Burdick is to blame.

I never understood why T206 should all be in one set, yet things like the MSA discs of the 1970's are all separate issues.

to hell with canada...blame Burdick!!!

Leon · #11 03-14-2014, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse9

I agree that Burdick is to blame.

I never understood why T206 should all be in one set, yet things like the MSA discs of the 1970's are all separate issues.

Burdick passed away in 1963. He didn't have much to say about 1970s sets.

Rich Klein · #12 03-15-2014, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse9

I agree that Burdick is to blame.

I never understood why T206 should all be in one set, yet things like the MSA discs of the 1970's are all separate issues.

You can kind of; sort of; blame me for those carousel discs, etc. When back in the day I was editing the Beckett Almanac of Baseball Cards and Collectibles; a couple dealers asked for those cards to be broken out by back. Since that was easier for everyone then multiplier and easy to do in our system, voila all those 70's disc sets were created. T-206 no as easy.

Rich

poorlydrawncat · #13 03-14-2014, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bestdj777

I do not see there ever being the interest in these sets. And, I am pretty happy about that. The prices are insane for Venezuelans, and I don't think I'd ever be able to complete that run if they picked up in popularity.

Amen to that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve B

I think Pete's right, the other sets won't really be examined as closely, and the varieties won't bring the sort of premiums some of the T206 varieties bring.

I think there are a few reasons.
T206 is massively popular. Partly because of the Wagner, partly because it's so available. And being a big set it can be collected many ways. subsets, all one back, teams, just Hofers.
It also has the couple things going for it that make it fascinating over a longer stretch. Even the 520 or 518 set has the appearance of being "easy" And with a decent budget it is. But it can also be challenging, especially on a budget or if you're somewhat picky about any aspect of the grade. Some are really tough with good registration and centering. Some are tough in anything over vg-ex.
Any of the subsets are challenging, but not impossible.

And that goes a long way for popularity.

I also really like the less popular sets. But I don't have much beyond a type card for most of them. Trying to collect them as sets I think would be a real challenge. Especially the Venezuelan cards. WWG seems available, but not as readily available as T206 or Goudeys.

There also hasn't been the effort to figure out the varieties in those sets. And that's possibly because those sets and T206 were originally looked at differently. T206 has always had varieties that were sort of the stars of a collection. Magie, the STL Demmitt and O'Hara, three tough cards that are variations.
None of the other sets really had any "big" variations. Yes, Goudey has a few diferent Ruths and Gehrigs, but they're different numbers so clearly not variations. And there isn't a huge difference in difficulty.
So for lack of a better term, looking for varieties was and is part of the culture of collecting T206, but isn't for other sets.

Some sets are simply too tough. If a needed card comes up once in maybe 5-10 years, most people become bored and move on to other things.
Oddly that's not always a problem in other hobbies. Some collectors of stamps might only ever have one chance certain items in their life. The stuff I specialize in right now has stuff I know I'll never own. Either because of cost or because it's both expensive and owned by someone about my age. The next time some of it will be sold might be 20 years from now.

Steve B

I think this sums it up pretty nicely. I've never found the T206 set at all appealing, and I'm really just trying to gain an understanding of why its legions of fans spend so much time analyzing it. This goes a long way in explaining it. But now I'm wondering whether people think the T206 variations craze is a bubble or if it's a reflection of how the hobby has changed (something along the lines of the emphasis on condition and rookie cards that arose 30-40 years ago and never went away)? And are there any existing sets besides T206 that you can see the variation craze infecting? Or is T206 just a totally unique set that can't really be compared to others?

In other words, do you see the T206 rare backs as a stable, if not rising, commodity or do you see the whole thing crashing at some point?

ullmandds · #14 03-14-2014, 01:10 PM

"In other words, do you see the T206 rare backs as a stable, if not rising, commodity or is there the potential for a lot of fluctuations or a crash of some sort? "

Yes! Just like anything else!

Republicaninmass · #15 03-14-2014, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I'd surmise that having the most famous card in the hobby in the set would be a good starting point to explaining the progression of the "success" of t206.

Ok I'm running to the woodshed after this

IMO it is the only reason people contemplate chasing that set. Too many variations, too many backs and just about impossible to "complete" unless you have a disposable 400k for a Wagner. So you have the "Set" minus the Big Four. I just wish I could see the face of their friends when they share their collection

"Look at my set, it is the one with the famous Honus Wagner"

"Wow that's incredible. I'd love to see your Honus Wagner?"

"I don't have a Wagner"

"Oh nice cards. Got any beer?"

As far as backs, I think tough ones will be sought out, but I think they are close to their peak. I think t205 backs have more upside

steve B · #16 03-15-2014, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Ok I'm running to the woodshed after this

IMO it is the only reason people contemplate chasing that set. Too many variations, too many backs and just about impossible to "complete" unless you have a disposable 400k for a Wagner. So you have the "Set" minus the Big Four. I just wish I could see the face of their friends when they share their collection

"Look at my set, it is the one with the famous Honus Wagner"

"Wow that's incredible. I'd love to see your Honus Wagner?"

"I don't have a Wagner"

"Oh nice cards. Got any beer?"

As far as backs, I think tough ones will be sought out, but I think they are close to their peak. I think t205 backs have more upside

No need to run, that was almost exactly the reaction to my collecting that some of my friends had years ago.

More like

"what sets have you completed?"
"none, there are too many and the coolest ones are way too expensive"
"................oh, .......................So , ummmmm you're not really serious about it right?"

That's when I switched to showing a range of cards first and putting them into the context of their time to show the coolness. The ones that got it are the ones I still hang out with. Not because of that, but more the overall outlook has made it work out that way.

I used to keep track of how many cards etc I had that were tougher than the Wagner, but obviously worth far less. I don't bother anymore. (If only rarity was all there was to price! )

When I saw a Wagner in person, the reflected glow lasted all of about 30 seconds. The I realized it was a worn, wrinkled T206 with writing. One that would cost someone more than what many people my age made in a year. And more than every car I'd owned up to that point put together. Enough for a very nice downpayment on a house.

Then I wandered off to look at the stuff I could actually buy that I'd probably enjoy just as much.

Steve B

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