The Psychology of Bidding.......

[MattyC]

Leon,

With centering like that, if you get it and don't like it I will happily work out a deal on it from ya.

Matt

[bobbyw8469]

Nice card Leon....just looks like trash in the scanner to me.

[Republicaninmass]

I'd drive to REA to look at some of the lots!

[CW]

Prior to two years ago, 90% of my card purchases were through eBay, with the other 10% being from private deals. Now that I've been dabbling a bit with online auction houses (eg. REA, Love of the Game), it's been interesting to see the differences in bidding psychology between a fixed time ending format like eBay, and a live auction format like we see from AH sites.

With eBay, it's all about the snipe. You bring your best bid, input it to register a few seconds before ending time, cross your fingers, and pray you win the card (but hope you're not overpaying).

With auction houses and the extended bidding format, I can see how things can get more competitive. Sometimes it's best to place a high bid very early, to occupy that top bidding slot which would force the next bid increment to overpay. Other times it might be better to wait until 4am to get in that last bid while some other poor sucker is drooling on his keyboard because he couldn't stay awake.

The bid increments with auction house auctions also play a big role compared to eBay auctions. The smaller bid increments on eBay allow you to fine tune a bid, sometimes down to the penny. With auction houses, however, once bidding on an item gets up into the higher levels, the larger bid increments can cause an item's price to increase significantly with each bid (plus BP).

With eBay, once an item has ended, that's it -- you either won or lost. But with the auction house format of extended bidding, all it takes is one more bid within that 15 minute time frame, and the item could still be yours. The auction isn't over until you say it's over, and sometimes that can be a dangerous (and costly) thing.

[Leon]

Nice synopsis Chuck. And you are correct of course. When I take a place at my final bid on a card it is where I want to be and I usually won't go over it...unless I know I won't see it again, or for a long time. This Ruth card, at the spot I was at, is about 15%-20% over what nice ones sell for...so I was fine with that as long as that print dot wasn't there . But that was also my last bid increment. With such common cards there is quite a bit of comparative market analysis.....and I was willing to pay a record price (or almost record) for the right card, as we have so often seen on the board. Had this card been on ebay I probably would have been in the same area on it but wouldn't have had the chance to re-bid, regardless of my mindset, as I almost always snipe too. AH's can be dangerous places to collect. And yes, MattyC, I did think about your recent Mick purchase too.... I guess we both have similar views, though mine was on a much smaller scale on this one.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Leon,

With centering like that, if you get it and don't like it I will happily work out a deal on it from ya.

Matt

+1. Yeah, it reminds me of the 1935 Diamond Stars "Greenburg" error I purchased from Steve Verkman (excellent seller, by the way) last year--near perfect centering, with slightly whiter borders than Leon's Ruth, and an ink mark on the back that would probably come out if soaked by someone on the board who knows what they are doing. A bit less corner wear than this Goudey Babe. I had previously sold the same Greenberg error version in ExMt several years ago to help pay off some credit cards, and I like the eye appeal of my present one just as well!

Great collecting to all,

Larry

[GregMitch34]

My "psychology" is buying only cards with perfect or at least great centering. In my mind--part true, part fantasy--that makes every card I get at a fair or market price ACTUALLY a nice bargain since I figure (hope) that it's at least 10-20% more valuable than the average price for the card due to centering. This often proves true, which only encourages me...

Wonder if you folks agree...

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

My "psychology" is buying only cards with perfect or at least great centering. In my mind--part true, part fantasy--that makes every card I get at a fair or market price ACTUALLY a nice bargain since I figure (hope) that it's at least 10-20% more valuable than the average price for the card due to centering. This often proves true, which only encourages me...

Wonder if you folks agree...

Greg, I think you and Leon have nailed it in your posts here. People love to look at the "average" price on VCP, but that is just what it is-- the average. It is not at all what the very best card in its grade will go for.

I think far too many collectors get hung up on "overpaying" based on the "average," as if that average is the real market price. And that is a gross misinterpretation of what that VCP average really is. Staring at that average and fear of overpaying will only lead one to miss out on and lose the very elite cards for any given grade.

If one really wants a card that blows away others in its grade, and even those with bigger sticker numbers, one has to be prepared to pay a premium over the VCP average. If I know how rare a card is to find centered or without some usual endemic flaw, and I see that rare, standout example, then I want it. And I will pay what it takes to get it in my collection. I never, ever see this as overpaying. Not when the alternative is losing out on the top specimen for the grade, or paying a bit less hard-earned money for an inferior example, when I will forever know very well that there's a better one out there. To me, overpaying is actually paying any amount for a lesser card, just to save a couple bucks.

And the proof is in the happiness. I would bet the farm that when it comes to cards like the ones you mention, and the Ruth in this thread is a prime example, there is far more underbidder's remorse than winner's remorse.

But of course the philosophy you mention only makes sense when one does not view all cards in the same grade as identical. There is a real danger in getting hung up on wanting 'Grade X,' as much as there is in getting hung up on the VCP average. That danger can lead to one buying downright ugly cards that, in the future, will never perform or appreciate the way the best looking ones in the grade will.

Leon's Ruth in the initial post here is just such an elite example for the grade. Should he ever want to sell it, he will be able to find many more buyers for this example that has elite centering, as compared to had he paid closer to the VCP average for an ugly example. And I'd bet the proverbial farm that his 4 will appreciate at a greater rate than the usual looking 4.

[GregMitch34]

Good comment. I NEVER consider VCP average--I will look at all sales listed to see fluctuation, and latest, and follow links to see photos if provided. Same at Card Target, which has photos of EVERY card, even the backs, so it's easy to see why prices were higher or lower for each example. That way you can usually see the "premium" your card deserves (and has often gotten). As I wrote, sometimes it's only a small amount--but still very real. And enough to get me to take the plunge on a card I might normally pull back from.

[ullmandds]

i DON'T KNOW WHAT MOST PEOPLE DO...BUT i BID WHAT i AM COMFORTABLE PAYING FOR A CARD...USUALLY WITHOUT CONSULTING ANY PRICE GUIDES/vcp.

[h2oya311]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i DON'T KNOW WHAT MOST PEOPLE DO...BUT i BID WHAT i AM COMFORTABLE PAYING FOR A CARD...USUALLY WITHOUT CONSULTING ANY PRICE GUIDES/vcp.

I sure hope you and someone else w/ your buying philosophy are bidding on my consignments!!! It's amazing how many graded cards sell for close to VCP, even for rare cards w/ only a few graded specimens.

I use VCP, but always look at the actual sales, photos, and avenue of sale when thinking about a fair price. It can be dangerous though. I once purchased a few t205 from a small AH thinking I got some bargains, but t205 prices realized had recently fallen and I was using 2012 values for some of the rarer ones. I didn't take a bath, but I certainly didn't get any return on my investment. This serves as a constant reminder to me of three things: (1) I am not a dealer, (2) only but cards you want, need, or for which you have expertise, and (3) exercise caution when using VCP, even when used appropriately.

Remember, a card needs only two bidders to realize a certain price...if one of those two guys no longer needs a card or isn't paying attention, the subsequent sale will invariably be much lower than the previous sale...the laws of supply and demand can be a bitch sometimes!!

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i DON'T KNOW WHAT MOST PEOPLE DO...BUT i BID WHAT i AM COMFORTABLE PAYING FOR A CARD...USUALLY WITHOUT CONSULTING ANY PRICE GUIDES/vcp.

Same here (or +1 for plus one types). Sometimes this can cause friction...a few years ago I really ticked off one board member when I offered 1/4 of what he thought his card was worth. Ends up he was closer to the going price at the time. I guess I was just working off of old brain 'fo, which will happen if you have been in the hobby long enough.

Brian

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i DON'T KNOW WHAT MOST PEOPLE DO...BUT i BID WHAT i AM COMFORTABLE PAYING FOR A CARD...USUALLY WITHOUT CONSULTING ANY PRICE GUIDES/vcp.

My approach is the same in that I only bid what I'm comfortable paying. However, that's always a function of what other people are paying. I can't imagine, for example, that I'd feel comfortable giving someone $500 for a nice D304 common if no one else ever paid more than a few bucks. I don't see much difference in using VCP versus the price guides versus just tracking sales for a while myself in order to figure out approximately what other people would be likely to pay for the card. They're just slightly different measures of the same construct. Sometimes I'm willing to pay more than that estimate, sometimes less, but I've never just looked at card and said, "I have no idea what anyone else would pay for that -- $1? $1,000,000? -- but I'll bid $325 without trying to estimate what others might pay first."

[glchen]

Originally Posted by MattyC

...
Leon's Ruth in the initial post here is just such an elite example for the grade. Should he ever want to sell it, he will be able to find many more buyers for this example that has elite centering, as compared to had he paid closer to the VCP average for an ugly example. And I'd bet the proverbial farm that his 4 will appreciate at a greater rate than the usual looking 4.

Hi Matt, I don't know if I fully agree with this at least for cards in grade 4. (Great card, btw, Leon!) Leon's 4 will probably appreciate at a greater rate than a typical 4, but I doubt that it would generally surpass the grade of a typical 5. So there will still be band that it will be locked into. Cards graded Authentic or Poor, are very different, on the other hand, like your M101-5 Ruth. There can be a huge difference in eye appeal among these cards, as cards can have NM visual appeal, but just have a pinhole or slight back damage that drops the cards technical grade to Authentic or Poor. These cards can appreciate far faster than cards graded multiple levels above it.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by glchen

Hi Matt, I don't know if I fully agree with this at least for cards in grade 4. (Great card, btw, Leon!) Leon's 4 will probably appreciate at a greater rate than a typical 4, but I doubt that it would generally surpass the grade of a typical 5. So there will still be band that it will be locked into. Cards graded Authentic or Poor, are very different, on the other hand, like your M101-5 Ruth. There can be a huge difference in eye appeal among these cards, as cards can have NM visual appeal, but just have a pinhole or slight back damage that drops the cards technical grade to Authentic or Poor. These cards can appreciate far faster than cards graded multiple levels above it.

Thanks for the kudo Gary. I have a different opinion. I will absolutely pay more for a card that looks better, in a lower grade, than one that doesn't look as nice in a higher grade. My guess is that it is mostly registry collectors that will pay more for a higher grade than a nicer looking card. Most collectors I see commenting on this board don't share your view (I don't think).....Nice discussion and though I gave my particular example for me I was hoping members would give their view of how/why they bid on a card. Thanks again.....(you and I have a lot of the same thoughts on cards)

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Stonepony

Any thoughts on bidding incements in the larger auctions? Specifically the 10% increment rule. I wonder at times if this hurts the consignor and final gavel price. For instance in Goodwins last auction an item went to "X" amount and closed there. I was willing to up the bid a couple hundred dollars but the 10% required increment ( plus the 20% buyers premium) was more than I wanted to go. If I had been allowed to up the bid at a lower increment its possible the eventual buyer would have outbid me again. Either way- consignor and aution house lost out on $ because 10% was too big a jump for me personally. Is there data showing that higher increments of bidding = higher gavel prices?

The 10% increases is a huge problem. Another issue is when you are allowed to put in a ceiling bid but it only does every other increment. This happened on an auction recently where I really wanted a card and wanted to put in the bid where it would make the next amount too high... yet the bid I wanted was between two ceiling bid options. I was very frustrated when someone outbid me with that between amount. I knew that was the amount I wanted but couldn't do it. Yet the next bid was way too high due to the increments.

[mrvster]

I could see where that "dot" would be a distraction, but a beauty of a card
especially when condition will outweigh any rarity....
I have the 181 classic pose....in good cond.....

CONGRATS!

Chuck, you just explained that perfectly