REA as the "State of the Hobby"

[MattyC]

As usual, Leon, you and I are on the same wavelength. I think on a very basic level that if multiple cards are being sold for six digits and up, that shows that the hobby is healthy. Does that mean that 70s and 80s cards or a low pop 1960's common will shatter historical prices when next offered? Of course not.

Ultimately though, a card can sell for X amount of dollars...

"Collector A" can say to himself, "What a steal! Wish I bid higher!"

"Collector B" can say, "I can't believe someone paid that much for that!"

"Collector C" of stamps, can say, "I wouldn't pay a penny for any card; they're all worthless to me."

Everybody has their own expectations and valuations. One man's trash is another man's treasure. I've never called girls back who are wives today.

Bottom line, all it ever takes is two who agree, to make something worth a great amount.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Bottom line, all it ever takes is two who agree, to make something worth a great amount.

Only problem with this logic is when it comes time to sell.....ruh roh! Better hope you find the other guy who thinks it's still worth it or else you're the one absorbing a massive loss on the resale. It's awesome if you NEVER EVER plan on selling it.....not so awesome when you don't want it anymore

[MattyC]

Agreed, and it all depends on the item. If it was just two guys that drove it initially and no one new has decided to pursue the item in the intervening years, then yes, that could be a problem. But that dreaded scenario is specific to the case of two bidders and only those two interested parties all the way until resale. I'd venture that more often than not, with time, and with high-end items that are desirable to many, there will always be at least two to tango and make sure the price stays in the ballpark. The resale scenario also brings into account one's expectations. Some guys take the loss of even a dollar as a debacle. Others think breaking even is a triumph, when they have gotten such joy out of owning a cherished piece. So there are a lot of variables in play.

[sb1]

A couple of things to consider, baseball cards/memorabilia bought at auction are usually bought at full retail and the secondary resale market is not factored in the price, where as cars, antiques, etc are bought at wholesale at auction and then marked up for retail resale. The sportscard/memorabilia market can be a very thin market with many ebbs and flows, and not as transparent as the coin or stamp hobbies(who each have 100's to 1000's of collectors for every vintage baseball collector) with printed buy/sell spreads(of which the buy is often back of bid and only fully priced on very liquid issues).

I guess my point is, that this entire hobby can be a very difficult morass for many people to traverse. Many times you roll the dice or go with your gut, results are not guaranteed!

None of this should be taken as criticism on any parties or feeling of right or wrong, just putting out some thought provoking rhetoric. If you buy something and feel you paid what it was worth to you, you should be happy and enjoy it. If at some point you need or want to sell it, one can only hope that the investment holds it's own or appreciates. Some people buy with no intention of ever selling, others the horizon is much closer.

Oh, and to answer the question posed by the OP, the market appears to be very strong in most areas of pre-war, especially select 19th Century Memorabilia and Cards. Whether post-war high grade material will make a comeback remains to be seen. As in any collectible, rarity and condition will hold value or appreciate faster.

[wonkaticket]

All thought provoking inputs here. I'm not sure what to think anymore but if any of you know roughly when the bottom will fall out of this thing. Can you please email me a few months prior? Thanks in advance.

Cheers,

John

[sb1]

I don't see the bottom falling out anytime soon. We had a period of 2008-2011, mirroring the economy where prices got softer, but most issues have recovered and several have surpassed prices realized at that time. It's like land "they ain't making it anymore". For those hoping of a crash and sweeping up bargains, I don't think they will ever see it. Unless you want to go on Craig's List and buy "Old Baseball Cards" all the 1980's/90's sets and wax you can haul home for chump change.

[bcornell]

Originally Posted by sb1

I don't see the bottom falling out anytime soon... For those hoping of a crash and sweeping up bargains, I don't think they will ever see it.

REA is *always* an anomaly, in my opinion. This is a small hobby and just a few players (or their absence) can have a huge affect on prices. However, the knives come out every spring with REA and makes it look like we're back on an upswing. I'm not sure that's the case.


Bill

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by sb1

I don't see the bottom falling out anytime soon. We had a period of 2008-2011, mirroring the economy where prices got softer, but most issues have recovered and several have surpassed prices realized at that time. It's like land "they ain't making it anymore". For those hoping of a crash and sweeping up bargains, I don't think they will ever see it. Unless you want to go on Craig's List and buy "Old Baseball Cards" all the 1980's/90's sets and wax you can haul home for chump change.

Hi Scott,

I never say never, but I pretty much agree with what you wrote. I also feel the bargain prices of 2008-2011/12 are behind us, and the 2014 prices seem much stronger for quality pre-war material.

In terms of the OP, I'm mostly a card collector, so most of my attention was there. I put in placeholder bids on 21 lots I liked. A mixture (mostly cards) of E-cards, W-cards, T204s, 19th C display pieces and HOF autographs. Every single one one of my card lots went too high for me...almost all well above VCP-recorded transactions in the 2008-2012 period.

I ended up getting a lovely 19th C display piece for a relatively low price...no cards.

Cheers,
Blair