Tim Kurkjian and the greatest SS's

[ksabet]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

1. Ken Griffey Jr was clearly better than Jeter.
2. Barry Bonds, even before he bulked up, was clearly better than Jeter.
3. Rickey Henderson, greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history, I think he was clearly better than Jeter, also.
4. Tony Gwynn, highest career batting average since Ted Williams at .338. 8 batting titles, led the National League in hits seven times, five of which were over 200. And where Jeter's Gold Glove Awards were questionable, nobody questioned Tony Gwynn's defense. He won 5 Gold Gloves. In the first half of his career, before he added weight, he was a fantastic athlete.
5. Albert Pujols. .318 lifetime batting average, 514 home runs, 1,571 RBI in 14 seasons. His average season is .318, 40 HR, 123 RBI. He has 554 doubles, a total of 1,083 extra base hits in 14 seasons. He's also won multiple Gold Glove Awards. I'd take him over Jeter in a heartbeat.
6. Miguel Cabrera. Triple Crown winner. Has won the last three American League batting titles, and the last two MVP Awards. 12 seasons, lifetime .320 AVG, 382 home runs and 1,344 RBI. I would take him over Jeter, too.

Griffey Jr.
Bonds
Henderson
Gwynn
Pujols
Cabrera

There's no way that Jeter cracks the top 5 players in the last thirty years.


I'm going to leave Frank Thomas out, even though I think he's one of the greatest right handed power hitters the game has ever seen.

For the sake of the arguments I will concede top 7. Close enough.

Funny how much Yankee bias (for and against) crops up in these discussions.

[Al C.risafulli]

It is awarded to the best player in the league.

I believe it is not. It is awarded to the player that the sportswriters in the BWAA think had the best season.

In 1991, those writers thought that Terry Pendleton's season was better than Barry Bonds', despite the fact that Bonds outperformed Pendleton in virtually every meaningful statistical category.

In 2006, the writers thought that Justin Morneau had a better season than Derek Jeter, despite the fact that he played a much easier position, had a lower WAR, fewer runs, fewer hits, a batting average .20 points lower, and on base percentage .42 points lower, and scored 21 fewer runs. But, you know, Morneau had more RBIs.

History is littered with examples where the rightful winner of the MVP was overlooked by writers who simply don't get it. They value RBI too highly, they value home runs too much, they usually discount defense and modern analytics, they place inordinate emphasis on whether the team was a winner, and they take character into consideration (which is why Albert Belle never won an MVP despite being one of the greatest players in the game in the 90s).

-Al

[ksabet]

Don't forget that somehow Andre Dawson won on the worst team in baseball despite Ozzie outplaying him in every statistical category except HR and RBI and having a worse War by almost 3 points.

[sycks22]

Originally Posted by Al C.risafulli

I believe it is not. It is awarded to the player that the sportswriters in the BWAA think had the best season.

In 1991, those writers thought that Terry Pendleton's season was better than Barry Bonds', despite the fact that Bonds outperformed Pendleton in virtually every meaningful statistical category.

In 2006, the writers thought that Justin Morneau had a better season than Derek Jeter, despite the fact that he played a much easier position, had a lower WAR, fewer runs, fewer hits, a batting average .20 points lower, and on base percentage .42 points lower, and scored 21 fewer runs. But, you know, Morneau had more RBIs.

History is littered with examples where the rightful winner of the MVP was overlooked by writers who simply don't get it. They value RBI too highly, they value home runs too much, they usually discount defense and modern analytics, they place inordinate emphasis on whether the team was a winner, and they take character into consideration (which is why Albert Belle never won an MVP despite being one of the greatest players in the game in the 90s).

-Al

Let's look at how valuable a player is to their team: If you take out Morneau in 2006 you have:
Jason Bartlett
Nick Punto
Lew Ford
Rondell White
Luis Castillo

If you take Jeter out of the Yanks you still have:
Cano
A-rod
Damon
Giambi (When he was good)
Posada
Abreu
Matsui

Jeter was 6th on his own team in Hr's, 3rd in RBI's

[nolemmings]

Now now Pete, be fair. While I agree with you completely that Morneau fully deserved the 2006 MVP (and Jeter is my favorite player), you left out Mauer, who himself was 6th in MVP voting, Torii Hunter (31 HR) and a decent Michael Cuddyer (24 HR) from your list. Justin had some helpers in that lineup and some decent pitching with Johann and Liriano-- they won 96 games after all.

Still, shame on Al for taking a pot shot at Morneau's award

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Al C.risafulli

I believe it is not. It is awarded to the player that the sportswriters in the BWAA think had the best season.

The best season on a playoff contending team, too.

Player A hit .319 scoring a league leading 108 runs, with 41 a league leading HR and 112 RBI in 2012. Led the league with a .987 OPS. Finished second in the MVP because his team was only 83-79.
Player B hit .317 scoring 97 runs, with 24 HR and 84 RBI in 2013. Finished the season with a .911 OPS. Won the MVP.

Now, granted, Ryan Braun probably should have won the MVP over Buster Posey in 2012. But the Giants were a better team, and Ryan Braun tested positive for elevated testosterone in the 2011 playoffs. Posey did have a great year, winning the batting title (doing so while coming back from a horrific leg injury the year before). But it shows how crazy the MVP race is.

[the 'stache]

If you ask me, this is how the MVP should have gone, and should go this year:

2011: Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp co MVP
2012: Ryan Braun
2013: Paul Goldschmidt
2014: as of right now, Clayton Kershaw

Braun's positive test had no bearing on the MVP, which is a regular season award. Dodger fans have been so incensed that Braun won, even before the test. But their numbers are so close, Braun's leading his team to the postseason was the difference:

Braun .332 AVG, 109 runs, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 33 for 39 (85%) stolen bases. 77 extra base hits. 58 walks, 93 strikeouts. .597 SLG .994 OPS.
Kemp. .324 AVG, 115 runs, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 for 51 (78%) stolen bases. 76 extra base hits. 74 walks, 159 strikeouts .586 SLG. .986 OPS.

Braun lost the batting title on the last day of the season. He went 0-4. Jose Reyes, the winner, dragged a bunt in his first at bat, then got pulled out of the game.

The way I look at it, both men put up Triple Crown worthy numbers. I think Kemp was outstanding, and should have shared the award.

In 2012, while everybody was talking up Cabrera's Triple Crown, Braun was chasing one of his own. He won the home run title. Chase Headley was ahead of Braun by one RBI on the last day of the season, and he got two more. The one Braun had really no chance at was the Batting title. He ended at .319, and Posey hit .336. But if you compare Braun and Cabrera's numbers, they were pretty close.

Average:
Cabrera: .330
Braun: .319

Runs scored:
Cabrera: 109
Braun: 108

Hits:
Cabrera: 200
Braun: 191

Home runs:
Cabrera: 44
Braun: 41

RBI:
Cabrera: 139
Braun: 112

Stolen Bases:
Braun: 30
Cabrera: 4

On Base:
Cabrera: .393
Braun .391

Slugging:
Cabrera: .606
Braun: .595

OPS:
Cabrera: .999
Braun: .987

Total Bases:
Cabrera: 377
Braun: 356

Runs created:
Braun: 142
Cabrera: 139

Extra Base Hits:
Cabrera: 84
Braun: 80

Offensive win %:
Braun: .773
Cabrera: .745

Compare those seasons to the one that McCutchen had last year and won the MVP. His season isn't even close.

[the 'stache]

Oh, I'm going to get into the Jeter vs Griffey Jr discussion. There is no comparison between them. Ken Griffey Jr may be one of the top 5 offensive players of the last 50 years. Jeter..isn't.

Here's something to chew on.

Seasons with 100 + strikeouts:
Derek Jeter 9
Ken Griffey Jr 5

Career home runs:
Derek Jeter 259
Ken Griffey Jr 630

Derek Jeter is 14th all-time in strikeouts. How does a guy who has hit more than 20 home runs in a season 3 times have 1,819 strike outs?

Oh yes, we're going to dive deeply into this.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Bill James has an interesting analysis where, as of 2002, he claims Craig Biggio was better than Griffey Jr. I will see if I can find it online. But the essence of it was that he pointed out a lot of categories where Griffey didn't do so well, aside from HR and RBI. Yeah, perhaps like asking other than that Mrs. Lincoln how was the play.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bill James has an interesting analysis where, as of 2002, he claims Craig Biggio was better than Griffey Jr. I will see if I can find it online. But the essence of it was that he pointed out a lot of categories where Griffey didn't do so well, aside from HR and RBI. Yeah, perhaps like asking other than that Mrs. Lincoln how was the play.

That's so wrong, Peter. Shame on you.

Of course, I have been known to use that one...from time to time. Hey, it's been nearly 150 years now. Once you cross the hundred year mark, I think the "too soon?" question no longer applies.

[jhs5120]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Oh, I'm going to get into the Jeter vs Griffey Jr discussion. There is no comparison between them. Ken Griffey Jr may be one of the top 5 offensive players of the last 50 years. Jeter..isn't.

Here's something to chew on.

Seasons with 100 + strikeouts:
Derek Jeter 9
Ken Griffey Jr 5

Career home runs:
Derek Jeter 259
Ken Griffey Jr 630

Derek Jeter is 14th all-time in strikeouts. How does a guy who has hit more than 20 home runs in a season 3 times have 1,819 strike outs?

Oh yes, we're going to dive deeply into this.

I don't think it is fair at all to compare two players ONLY using home runs and strikeouts. I think everyone here will agree.

Besides, Ken Griffey Jr. struck out MORE that Derek Jeter did. Griffey struck out 1,779 times in 11,304 plate appearances; or 15.7% of the time. Jeter struck out 1,819 times in 12,435 plate appearances; or 14.6% of the time. The amount of 100+ strike out seasons is as relevant as the amount of 172 hit season. It isn't relevant at all.

Here is a comparison of the two players over their 162 game average:

Hits:
Derek Jeter: 205
Ken Griffey Jr.: 169

Runs:
Derek Jeter: 115
Ken Griffey Jr.: 101

Doubles:
Derek Jeter: 32
Ken Griffey Jr.: 32

Home Runs:
Derek Jeter: 15
Ken Griffey Jr.: 38

RBI:
Derek Jeter: 77
Ken Griffey Jr.: 111

Stolen Bases:
Derek Jeter: 21
Ken Griffey Jr.: 11

Strike Outs
Derek Jeter: 109
Ken Griffey Jr.: 108

Batting Average:
Derek Jeter: .311
Ken Griffey Jr.: .284

OPS:
Derek Jeter: .821
Ken Griffey Jr.: .907

The two are nearly identical except Griffey hit more home runs, Jeter hit more singles and stole more bases. It's a toss up as to which a coach would prefer. From purely a statistical standpoint, Derek Jeter wins out. He has a marginally higher Offensive WAR, but it's so close that it's almost negligible. Personally, I would take Jeter because he plays shortstop, but they would both help a team.

[Peter_Spaeth]

FWIW, in my opinion Griffey was a GREAT center fielder, whilst Jeter was an above average shortstop. I would take Griffey over Jeter, but overall I rank Jeter high among SSs.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by jhs5120

I don't think it is fair at all to compare two players ONLY using home runs and strikeouts. I think everyone here will agree.

Besides, Ken Griffey Jr. struck out MORE that Derek Jeter did. Griffey struck out 1,779 times in 11,304 plate appearances; or 15.7% of the time. Jeter struck out 1,819 times in 12,435 plate appearances; or 14.6% of the time. The amount of 100+ strike out seasons is as relevant as the amount of 172 hit season. It isn't relevant at all.

Here is a comparison of the two players over their 162 game average:

Hits:
Derek Jeter: 205
Ken Griffey Jr.: 169

Runs:
Derek Jeter: 115
Ken Griffey Jr.: 101

Doubles:
Derek Jeter: 32
Ken Griffey Jr.: 32

Home Runs:
Derek Jeter: 15
Ken Griffey Jr.: 38

RBI:
Derek Jeter: 77
Ken Griffey Jr.: 111

Stolen Bases:
Derek Jeter: 21
Ken Griffey Jr.: 11

Strike Outs
Derek Jeter: 109
Ken Griffey Jr.: 108

Batting Average:
Derek Jeter: .311
Ken Griffey Jr.: .284

OPS:
Derek Jeter: .821
Ken Griffey Jr.: .907

The two are nearly identical except Griffey hit more home runs, Jeter hit more singles and stole more bases. It's a toss up as to which a coach would prefer. From purely a statistical standpoint, Derek Jeter wins out. He has a marginally higher Offensive WAR, but it's so close that it's almost negligible. Personally, I would take Jeter because he plays shortstop, but they would both help a team.

Griffey battled one injury after another in the second half of his career from diving all over the outfield, and over walls to rob home runs. The point is that Jeter shouldn't have struck out as much as he has. He's struck out more than every single member of the 3,000 hit club. That Jeter has struck out more than Griffey is absolutely funny.

You skipped OBP. Jeter's OBP is only 7 points higher than Griffey Jr's.

OBP:
Griffey: .370
Jeter: .379

OBP is a much better metric than batting average. While batting average will always be considered, and important, on base percentage is the best metric. And Jeter, who's got a much higher batting average, has almost the same on base percentage as Griffey. So, Griffey gets on base nearly as often as Jeter.

When it comes to power, though, there is no comparison:

SLG:
Griffey: .538
Jeter: .432

And again, his slugging dropped, as did most of his metrics, because of the injuries he fought through. At age 31, Griffey's SLG was .568.

Jeter is a singles hitter. Griffey, who has 370 more home runs, has nearly the identical number of doubles.

Doubles:
Jeter: 538
Griffey: 524

And one thing we haven't mentioned that puts Griffey way way ahead of Jeter-defense. Griffey Jr is defensively one of the best center fielders of all-time. Jeter is an average, maybe slightly above average defensive shortstop. Griffey, who is overall a better offensive force than Jeter, is a much better defensive contributor.

There is simply no contest. Griffey is the superior player. Again, Jeter is great, but Griffey Jr was a mega star.

Consider their best seasons by WAR. Remember a WAR of 5+ is All Star level. A WAR of 8+ is MVP level (these are per Baseball Reference)

Jeter's best WARs:
1999 8.0
1998 7.5
2009 6.5
2006 5.5
2001 5.2

Griffey Jr's best WARs:
1996 9.7
1997 9.1
1993 8.7
1991 7.1
1994 6.9
1998 6.6
1992 5.8
2000 5.5
1990 5.2

Jeter had 5 seasons with a WAR of 5.0 or higher. Jeter had one season (1999) that, per WAR, would be at an MVP level.

Griffey Jr had 9 seasons with a WAR of 5.0 or higher. Griffey Jr had three seasons (1996, 1997 and 1993) that, per WAR, would be at an MVP level.

So, to summarize:
Derek Jeter is an outstanding hitter with excellent speed. He won the 1996 American League Rookie of the Year. He is a lifetime .311 hitter. He has hit 259 home runs, and stolen 356 bases. His 3,432 hits is sixth all-time, and his 1,914 runs scored is 10th all-time. He is a 14 time All Star. He has won 5 Silver Slugger Awards and 5 Gold Gloves. He has never won an MVP, but has finished in the top 5 in MVP voting 3 times. He has led the American League in runs scored once, and in hits twice in his 20 year career. Derek Jeter has struck out more times than any other member of the 3,000 hit club. He has had 5 seasons with a WAR figure of 5.0 or higher (which is considered All Star level). He has had one WAR figure of 8.0 or higher (which is considered MVP level).

Ken Griffey Jr was a complete player with great power, speed and defensive ability. Griffey is a lifetime .284 hitter with 630 home runs and 1,836 RBI. His 630 home runs is sixth best all-time, and he is thirteenth in RBIs. Griffey is a 13 time All Star. He has won 7 Silver Slugger Awards and 10 Gold Gloves. He has led the American League in runs scored once, RBI once, Slugging once, and total bases twice. He has also won 4 home run titles. Ken Griffey Jr's 382 home runs were the most by an American Leaguer in the 1990s. Only Mark McGwire hit more in the decade (405). McGwire played in both leagues. Ken Griffey Jr was the 1997 American League MVP. He has finished in the top 5 in voting four other times. Griffey Jr has finished with a WAR figure of 8.0 or higher 3 times (which is considered MVP level). He has had six other seasons with a WAR of 5.0 or higher (which is considered All Star level). He also had a 4.9 WAR rating in 1999. Ken Griffey is a member of the Major League Baseball All-Century Team.


Jeter is a great player. But Griffey across the boards is just better. He has more Silver Slugger Awards, twice as many Gold Glove Awards (and Jeter's are questioned by many). Jeter has been selected to the All Star Game one more time. Griffey Jr has won an MVP while Jeter has not, though Jeter may have been a better choice in 2006 than Justin Morneau. Still, Griffey Jr has had more WAR 8+ (3 to 1) and WAR 5+ (9 to 5).

JAWS (Jaffe WAR Scoring System) has rated these players:
Derek Jeter 12th best shortstop behind Alan Trammell. Top 5: Honus Wagner, Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken Jr, George Davis, Robin Yount

Ken Griffey Jr 5th best center fielder (behind Mickey Mantle). Top 5: Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr.

7 year peak WAR:
Derek Jeter 42.2
Ken Griffey Jr 53.9

Pretty much any way you slice it, Griffey is simply better.