Tim Kurkjian and the greatest SS's

[howard38]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

First of all, why was Ichiro's season "one of the best seasons we have ever seen"?

The only two statistics that were exceptional were his 242 hits, and his 56 stolen bases. 127 runs scored is a nice total, but it's nowhere near the best all-time. In fact, since just 2000, there have been 27 seasons where a player scored 127 or more runs scored.

He had 242 hits. That's a really great figure. But he had a whopping 738 plate appearances. Only 24 players in the last 113 seasons have had more plate appearances in a season. So while he was very good, hitting .350, his hits total wasn't anything Earth shattering, either. It was part the product of a great season, and an even bigger part an incredible number of plate appearances.

So while the number of hits he had was certainly great, again, it's nothing mind blowing. And his 56 stolen bases? He had 70 stolen base attempts. That's a fine total, and it's certainly something we don't see as often as we used to. But again, 56 stolen bases is nowhere near the best individual total ever. In 114 games this season, Dee Gordon has 54 stolen bases. And he's only had 503 plate appearances.

So you'll excuse me if I question your claim that Ichiro had one of the greatest seasons in baseball history. No, he really didn't. For the first 50 games the game was played, there were players that were hitting for averages much higher than .350, scoring much more than 127 runs, and stealing more than 56 bases.

The rest of his numbers are actually quite pedestrian. He only walked 30 times. So while he had a lot of hits, he got on base a total of 280 times, which was good for the 11th best total in 2001. Barry Bonds in 2001 got on base 342 times. He had 156 hits, 177 walks, he was hit by 9 pitches. Jason Giambi got on base 320 times. Luis Gonzalez got on base 312 times. Sammy Sosa got on 311 times, and Todd Helton 300. Lance Berkman, Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Jeff Bagwell and Carlos Delgado all got on base more times than Ichiro, too. And even terrible old Dan Uggla got on base 223 times. He only had 138 hits, but he also had 77 walks, and got hit by 8 pitches.

So, what about the rest of Ichiro's offensive production? 34 doubles, 8 triples, 8 home runs. 69 RBI.He slashed .381/.457/.838.

Dan Uggla scored 97 runs, he had 37 doubles, a triple and 32 home runs. As far as how many times he struck out, 171, so what? An out is an out is an out. One of Ichiro's outs counts the same as one of Uggla's outs. Ichiro made 458 outs in 2001. Uggla only made 396 outs.

So, while Ichiro was having "one of the greatest seasons in MLB history!", he only scored 30 more runs than Uggla. And he drove in 23 fewer runs. That is reflected in runs created:

Runs created (source Baseball America, under more stats)
Ichiro 2001 127
Uggla 2008 100

Runs created per game

Ichiro 7.2
Uggla 6.5

Ichiro, for having one of the greatest seasons ever, wasn't that much more productive than Uggla. Look at the runs created per game. When you consider that Ichiro had 119 more plate appearances than Uggla did, they'd be even closer if with the same number of opportunities.

And one more thing. Dan Uggla is a second baseman. You took a player from what is typically the least productive offensive position in baseball for your comparison.

In summary, not only is Ichiro's 2001 season not one of the greatest of all time, your comparison of Ichiro and Uggla did nothing to show that OPS is a meaningless stat. It is not all encompassing, as it does not take into consideration stolen bases, and there are metrics that do. But OPS is an outstanding metric to determine a player's contributions with the bat. The reason Dan Uggla's OPS 2008 OPS is higher than Ichiro's 2001 OPS is because Uggla thrived in both getting on base, and generating power. Both are vital to team success. Ichiro got on base slightly more often, but his power numbers compared to Uggla's were nowhere close.

You see to get stuck on batting averages, Jason. Batting average is still a good metric. It shows how well a hitter is able to get on base with his bat. But if a player's job is to get on base ahead of the power hitters, which pretty much matches Ichiro's job description, he's only marginally better at that then Uggla. Ichiro hit .350 in 2001, and Uggla hit only .260 in 2008. But Ichiro's OBP of .381 is not a lot better than Uggla's .360. Why? Because Uggla walks a lot. When he's not hitting home runs, he provides value to his team by getting on base. Ichiro's OBP was only 31 points higher than his batting average because he only walked 30 times in 738 trips to the plate. That's actually pretty bad for a leadoff hitter. It wasn't enough to keep him out of the lineup because he was obviously a great hitter at that time. But again, Uggla in 2008 had a higher OPS than Ichiro did in 2001 because he provided more value to his team. Instead of this example your provided showing why OPS is meaningless, it has had the opposite effect. It has done a great job of showing exactly why it is such an accurate metric. You looked at things like batting average and strikeouts while completely ignoring walks. Uggla in 2008 got on base nearly as much as Ichiro, and he provided much more power. So, upon further review, Ichiro's season wasn't as spectacular as you made it out to be, and Uggla's 2008 season wasn't as bad as it was made out to be.

Ichiro's WAR was only 7.7. That's a very good figure, but hardly indicative of a monumental season.

I would add that Ichiro was not even the best player on his own team that year and that the tremendous hype surrounding him helped vault him to the MVP award. Bret Boone, IMO, was the best Mariner that year and should have been the MVP. He may have been using PEDs but that was not an issue to MVP voters in 2001.

[Peter_Spaeth]

ichiro hit .350 and had on OBP of .381. That has to be one of the lowest differentials ever. The same year, same team, Olerud and Martinez were higher, at .401 and .423.

[Mountaineer]

Love him or hate him, Arod has to be considered in the top 3 of all-time (ignoring his PED use). He was a machine and if he wouldn't have been injured a lot here over the years and if he didn't test positive for PED's, he could have made a very strong argument as being the best SS of all-time.

I am a Yankees fan, but I do not have Jeter in my top 5. He has been consistent through the multitude of playing years just like Ripken was. The longevity factor has helped increase Ripken's and Jeter's places on top SS lists. Jeter is a top 10 SS though.

[the 'stache]

Jeter has been a very productive shortstop, and he's been a productive shortstop for a long time. There haven't been a lot of shortstops in the game's history that hit .330 or .340. Jeter could do that for you. He could hit the occasional home run. He could steal the occasional base. It just seemed to me, anyway, that when Jeter was doing these things, it was always at the most critical moment. So while Jeter may not have hit a lot of home runs, I can think of a few that he hit that were absolutely huge, and so important to his team's success.

But one thing that gets overlooked. Jeter had some pretty exceptional talent around him throughout his career. He wasn't winning those games alone. Put it this way. Since 1995, Derek Jeter's first season, through 2014, the New York Yankees have done this:

1,877 wins
1,299 losses
3 ties
.591 winning percentage, or 96 wins a season for 20 years
5 World Series titles

When we're looking at how Derek Jeter has been as a player, let's not forget the absolutely spectacular talent that has surrounded him. To his left, he's had probably the best second baseman in the game, Robinson Cano, since 2005. He's had Alex Rodriguez to his right at third base. He's had talent everywhere. He has been a great player, of course, but he's scored 2,000 runs because he's had some of the biggest bats in the game behind him. He's gotten on base, and ya, he's stolen a few bases. But he's scored a lot of runs, and the Yankees have won a lot of games because they've had a roster filled with stars.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

ichiro hit .350 and had on OBP of .381. That has to be one of the lowest differentials ever. The same year, same team, Olerud and Martinez were higher, at .401 and .423.

It's actually not. Rob Picciolo, believe it or not, once had a season with a LOWER OBP than batting average. Who cares if it was just 14 games? He was so impressed with that feat he did it again the next year in 87 games. Picciolo walked just 25 times in 1720 PAs.

Here's a great page on this topic:

http://www.captainsblog.info/2012/05...average/15300/

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Tabe

It's actually not. Rob Picciolo, believe it or not, once had a season with a LOWER OBP than batting average. Who cares if it was just 14 games? He was so impressed with that feat he did it again the next year in 87 games. Picciolo walked just 25 times in 1720 PAs.

Here's a great page on this topic:

http://www.captainsblog.info/2012/05...average/15300/

How is that mathematically possible, if you start with BA and then add the same number to the numerator and denominator (walks plus hit by pitch, right?) you necessarily come up with a higher number, no?

[howard38]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How is that mathematically possible, if you start with BA and then add the same number to the numerator and denominator (walks plus hit by pitch, right?) you necessarily come up with a higher number, no?

Sacrifice flies count as plate appearances when calculating OBP.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by howard38

Sacrifice flies count as plate appearances when calculating OBP.

Ah. Thank you.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Tabe

It's actually not. Rob Picciolo, believe it or not, once had a season with a LOWER OBP than batting average. Who cares if it was just 14 games? He was so impressed with that feat he did it again the next year in 87 games. Picciolo walked just 25 times in 1720 PAs.

Here's a great page on this topic:

http://www.captainsblog.info/2012/05...average/15300/

I thought that name rang a bell. The Brewers acquired him in '82 to back up Yount at shortstop.

I have no idea how he was able to stick around as long as he did. I don't remember him having any special defensive skills, and he was deplorable with a bat in his hands. He was a lifetime .234 hitter. His career slash line was, are you ready? .246/.312/.558. Yet somehow he was able to remain in the Majors for 9 seasons. He played in 730 games, and totaled 1,720 plate appearances. I guess he was able to play a lot of defensive positions. But would that explain how somebody with a -1.8 career WAR was able to hang around for nine years?

[Tabe]

Picciolo is the first modern player I've seen that challenges Ray Oyler for worst hitter of all-time. Oyler as a lot worse but he at least walked once in awhile. Oyler was also an elite defender.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Picciolo is the first modern player I've seen that challenges Ray Oyler for worst hitter of all-time. Oyler as a lot worse but he at least walked once in awhile. Oyler was also an elite defender.

Chris,

If we're talking the worst hitter of all-time, we need to include the originator of "the Mendoza line". Mario Mendoza ended his career with a .215 career batting average. As terrible as Picciolo was, he did hit 17 home runs in 1,618 ABs. Mendoza managed a mere 4 in 1,337. Ironic that he end his career with 1,337 at bats. The kids today like to use those numbers to spell the word "leet". There was nothing elite about Mendoza.

Picciolo's extra base hits: 1,628 ABs, 56 doubles, 10 triples, 17 home runs
Mendoza's extra base hits: 1,337 ABs, 33 doubles, 9 triples, 4 home runs

Picciolo's slash line: .246/.312/.558
Mendoza's slash line: .245/.262/.507

Picciolo's career OPS +: 56
Mendoza's career OPS +: 41

If Picciolo was terrible with a career -1.8 WAR, what does that make Mendoza, he of the -2.5 WAR.

Surprisingly, Mendoza had a 4.0 dWAR his career. He played short, third base and second base for Pittsburgh, Texas and Seattle in his 9 year career. Picciolo's dWAR was a 1.9.

Again, the question begs asking. How do Picciolo and Mendoza last 9 years each in the Majors? Mendoza from '74 to '82, Picciolo from '77 to '85.

They're both pretty awful, but only Mendoza's name is brought up when a player threatens to fall below the .200 batting average.

He might just be the worst hitter ever.

[the 'stache]

Ok, I had to run a report. It turns out that Mendoza is almost the worst ever. I ran a report for the modern era (1919 was the end of the dead ball era, so 1920 to current day). Mendoza has the second worst career OPS of non pitchers who have had 1,000 or more at bats. The winner? Luis Gomez, he of the career .500 OPS. His OBP of .261 is better than the other guys. Gomez walked 86 times in his career. But his slugging percentage was downright embarrassing. In 1,251 at bats, Gomez hit 26 doubles, 5 triples and no home runs. His career slugging percentage? .239. I didn't know a percentage could get that low.

Here is the wall of shame:

[sago]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

ichiro hit .350 and had on OBP of .381. That has to be one of the lowest differentials ever. The same year, same team, Olerud and Martinez were higher, at .401 and .423.

Pretty sure it helped that Ichiro was already on base and was a major stealing threat.