OT: Trout vs. Mantle

Runscott · #1 08-29-2014, 07:46 PM

Larry, watching all the sales of modern cards at nearby booths in Cleveland this year, I would love to get in on that money. But trying to figure out the logic behind these prices is so much more difficult than pre-war. I'd rather live on food stamps and enjoy my collecting/dealing than tie my brain in a knot by getting involved in modern stuff. I nearly had a seizure when I finally figured out what 'refractor' meant.

chaddurbin · #2 08-29-2014, 08:06 PM

a pre-war board not getting modern cards...what a suprise! having a thorough understanding of prewars and dabbling in the speculative nature of modern card collecting, i can say i enjoy both spectrums.

trout early in his career is already producing peak-year rate of many hof heavyweights and it's hard to think he's going to continue at his 10war rate every year...but he has the potential to! even if he settles into the 7-8war for the next 10 years which is totally plausible he'd still be an all-time great. living in socal i get to experience possibly 2 of the all-time greats in their primes, and it's NIRVANA for a baseball fan like me.

...and harper, nothing's wrong with him! he's still younger than most of the top 100 prospects list they put out every year. he'll be fine if matt williams would stop jerking him around (baseball is seemingly in decline because nobody relates to these hard-ass white guys with their unwritten rules...give it a rest brian mccann-types).

t206blogcom · #3 08-29-2014, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

...and harper, nothing's wrong with him! he's still younger than most of the top 100 prospects list they put out every year.

+1

ls7plus · #4 09-04-2014, 05:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Runscott

Larry, watching all the sales of modern cards at nearby booths in Cleveland this year, I would love to get in on that money. But trying to figure out the logic behind these prices is so much more difficult than pre-war. I'd rather live on food stamps and enjoy my collecting/dealing than tie my brain in a knot by getting involved in modern stuff. I nearly had a seizure when I finally figured out what 'refractor' meant.

Hi, Scott. The "logic" behind it is that if you get a hot card, preferably with a very low print run, of a player who seems at a very early stage to have top flight HOF potential, pick a number to sell it for immediately, then put 4 zeros behind that number before the player sustains a serious injury, simply loses it overnight as the pitchers adjust to him and he fails to return the favor, or he is exposed as a PED user! Prices are based upon speculation (with an overly large % of buyers intending not to keep the card for a collection, but to flip it for profit asap), or transient demand which is quick to depart for the next latest and greatest thing! IMHO, if you're going to buy current players, buy them when they are in their downslide in their late 30's (assuming they are good enough to still be around by then), when most of the above transient demand has departed the scene.

Best of luck,

Larry

Runscott · #5 09-04-2014, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Hi, Scott. The "logic" behind it is that if you get a hot card, preferably with a very low print run, of a player who seems at a very early stage to have top flight HOF potential, pick a number to sell it for immediately, then put 4 zeros behind that number before the player sustains a serious injury, simply loses it overnight as the pitchers adjust to him and he fails to return the favor, or he is exposed as a PED user! Prices are based upon speculation (with an overly large % of buyers intending not to keep the card for a collection, but to flip it for profit asap), or transient demand which is quick to depart for the next latest and greatest thing! IMHO, if you're going to buy current players, buy them when they are in their downslide in their late 30's (assuming they are good enough to still be around by then), when most of the above transient demand has departed the scene.

Best of luck,

Larry

Thanks Larry - I didn't realize it was so simple!

Quote:

Originally Posted by tedzan

A huge DITTO to what Bob says here.

Fortunately, I'm old enough to have seen Mickey play when I was growing up (1951-1968).

Does anyone here believe Ted stopped growing up in 1968?

Mantle was already LEGENDARY when I was a kid in the early '60s, as was Willie Mays. Even at the tail-end of his career, the word 'Mantle' or 'Mays' meant something other-worldly to kids my age. Of course, 'Maris' had almost-similar status until he got traded to the Cardinals, as it took quite a long time for the '61' thing to wear off. 'BABE RUTH' was the other legendary baseball name, but you could still get a Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays baseball card when I was a kid, which made them even more special. As far as comparing Trout to Mantle, versus Mays, I think Mays would also be a valid comparison. I really don't understand how a lot of people put Mays and Mantle in different categories as far as 'legendariness' (coined term - one nickel to me if you decide to use it). Kids my age were awed by both equally, but maybe that was only in Texas since we had no particular affinity for things from either coast. And race really played no part in it - the pitchers who inspired us were Marichal, Gibson, Drysdale and Koufax, and Denny McLain for the one big year.

I've said this before, and I don't think anyone really gets it - if the kids weren't all that excited about pulling a player's card from a wax pack, then he shouldn't even be considered for the HOF. I know, it's not based on statistics, but believe me - kids took their statistics very seriously, so that also played into it. I can't remember a kid ever saying, "But Niekro for Drysdale is a great deal - look at how steady Niekro is performing over a long period with a team that no one cares about", or "Oh boy! I pulled a Blyleven!!!" Didn't happen.

I digress, but my point is that Mantle was the man (as was Mays). If Trout is 'the man' 10 years from now, and his name is mentioned in the same sentence as either Mantle or Mays, then you've got your answer. Hopefully we won't be hearing it mentioned with Bobby Murcer.

ctownboy · #6 09-04-2014, 10:58 AM

I have told this story before but it seems worth telling again. When I was first out of college, had a job and had some money to spend on baseball cards, I put advertisements in small town local papers looking to buy.

I bought two different collections of cards from two different guys. Both had collected the cards as boys and both had collected from the late 1950's until the early 1960's. Both were selling to raise money for one thing or another.

Both collections had star cards and high number cards. Both guys didn't mind selling the star cards and high numbers. However, both guys wanted to keep the cards of one player - Mickey Mantle.

So, even though the Mantle cards were some of the highest value cards and the guys were selling to make money for other things, they just couldn't part with their Mantle's.

David

Runscott · #7 09-04-2014, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctownboy

So, even though the Mantle cards were some of the highest value cards and the guys were selling to make money for other things, they just couldn't part with their Mantle's.

David

There was always something magical about pulling a Mantle from a pack. I don't think finding a chunk of gold would have been any more satisfying for a kid back then.

Peter_Spaeth · #8 09-04-2014, 12:46 PM

As has been often discussed, Mays of course was just as wondrous a player, and eventually his numbers were better. And he played a number of years in New York. Yet his cards in a typical year sell for a fraction of a Mantle. I suppose one could say race is the difference, but I think (and hope) that it's not that simple.

Runscott · #9 09-04-2014, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As has been often discussed, Mays of course was just as wondrous a player, and eventually his numbers were better. And he played a number of years in New York. Yet his cards in a typical year sell for a fraction of a Mantle. I suppose one could say race is the difference, but I think (and hope) that it's not that simple.

Peter, 'race' is often the card played when logic eludes. I think 'Yankee' is a more likely explanation. Regarding the card price comparison, it's the same for autographs.

tedzan · #10 09-04-2014, 02:05 PM

Peter

Those of us who followed the three New York teams back in the 1940's and 1950's rooted for our teams. Regardless, of which team you favored back then......
everyone in our neighborhood rooted for Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Don Newcombe, Willie Mays, Monte Irvin, Elston Howard, etc, etc.

Furthermore, I'll never forget when (as an 11-year old) in the Fall of 1949 when we were in the schoolyard opening up fresh packs of 1949 Bowman cards; and,
one kid shouted out...."I got a Satchell Paige card" !

This was exciting, as all of us gathered around him to see Paige's rookie card, and hold it, and read his bio. Also, when these Hi #'s were more available, we got
excited to get a Larry Doby card (since he was a local Jersey boy).

As much as he was a fan favorite, the problem with Mays is that he has become quite a bitter person in recent years. And, he is turning off a lot of his fans. I see
Mays in Cooperstown every Summer on HOF weekend, and he is not a "friendly" guy.

TED Z

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