OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

Runscott · #1 09-02-2014, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Huh? Balboni is 3 inches shorter, 60 lbs lighter, and even their stats are far apart. I realize you were exaggerating, Scott, but as the previous poster pointed out, Dunn wasn't the person that everybody is making him out to be.

David, I wasn't exaggerating - I was being ludicrous.

My earlier (prior to my ludicrous one) post did not say that Balboni and Dunn are the same. Please re-read it. I realize that you guys are sensitive about Dunn, but my opinion is that he is not HOF material. That's all I'm saying. Sure he is desirable on a major league team. Sure he has had some great years. Sure he hits with power. But personally, I don't think his overall performance is HOF-worthy. I think that letting him in would be further watering down the HOF. That's all I was saying.

Back when Lefty Grove was voted in, I could have said "What's next, Phil Niekro?". Obviously that would not have been stating that Niekro and Grove are exactly alike, or even that they compare - only that Niekro is clearly a step or more below Grove.

pbspelly · #2 09-02-2014, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Runscott

I realize that you guys are sensitive about Dunn, but my opinion is that he is not HOF material. That's all I'm saying. Sure he is desirable on a major league team. Sure he has had some great years. Sure he hits with power. But personally, I don't think his overall performance is HOF-worthy. I think that letting him in would be further watering down the HOF. That's all I was saying.

I like the guy, but I don't know that I'm particularly sensitive about Dunn.

What I said was that he is NOT Hall of Fame material, but that if he had had a few more great years (like he did from 2004-2010) his overall performance would have been higher, and then he would have been HOF material. Which sounds a lot like what you just wrote.

Unless you are saying that someone who hits 40 homers, 35 doubles, and walks 100 times a year can NEVER be HOF material--no matter how many times he does it--so long as he's slow and strikes out a lot. Which may be a legitimate point of view, although it might mean we'd have to kick out people like Ralph Kiner and Harmon Killebrew. (Killebrew, by the way, has stats that are somewhat comparable to Dunn in his prime, but Killebrew maintained the high level of play for longer.)

But again, I specifically said that Dunn is not HOF material. Just that he could have been.

packs · #3 09-02-2014, 01:50 PM

I would add Reggie Jackson to that list too. Reggie only made it to 500 homers by playing 4 more seasons after hitting .194 for the Angels in 1983. He is as much of a compiler as anyone but was voted in first ballot and by 93 percent of voters.

I don't think Dunn is a HOFer either but I like him and think his abilities should be more respected than they are. He was only 4 homers away (two straight seasons of 38) from hitting 40 homers seven years in a row. Only Babe Ruth has ever done that in the history of the game.

Runscott · #4 09-02-2014, 02:45 PM

Also, I think it's great that Dunn was almost able to do one thing that Babe Ruth did, and I also am gleaning from this thread, that everyone is in agreement that Dunn can hit a lot of HR's. If HR's were the only aspect of baseball that counted, then Dunn would be a HOF'er for sure.

Ruth lifetime batting average: .342
Dunn lifetime batting average: .237

nolemmings · #5 09-02-2014, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Killebrew, by the way, has stats that are somewhat comparable to Dunn in his prime, but Killebrew maintained the high level of play for longer.

Although I agree with your response generally, the comparison to Killebrew is weak. Not only did he play in a pitching-rich era, he dominated and was considered among the elite. He won an MVP, finished second in the voting once--to a triple crown winner--finished third twice, fourth twice and received MVP votes five other seasons. Dunn never dominated nor approached dominating his league even once, and as mentioned, seldom received any MVP votes. By way of comparison, Killer received 15 MVP votes in 1965, a year when he was hurt and only played in 113 games. Dunn has received 15 MVP votes in 14 years. So not only did Killer put up big numbers longer, he did so at a much higher level than Dunn and at a time when pitching was better overall.

EDITED TO ADD: Also, Dunn never even led his league in HRs, while Killebrew led the MAJORS in HR three times, tied for first one year and finished 1 behind Mays in another.

vintagetoppsguy · #6 09-02-2014, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nolemmings

EDITED TO ADD: Also, Dunn never even led his league in HRs, while Killebrew led the MAJORS in HR three times, tied for first one year and finished 1 behind Mays in another.

True, but Killebrew wasn't competing with PED users and Dunn was.

Dunn may have never led the league in HRs, but I would bet my left testicle that he never used PEDs either.

Peter_Spaeth · #7 09-02-2014, 03:37 PM

So far, the tally:

Not a HOFer: 100+??
a HOFer if he hits 500HR: 1

A brave man stands alone.

CMIZ5290 · #8 09-02-2014, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So far, the tally:

Not a HOFer: 100+??
a HOFer if he hits 500HR: 1

A brave man stands alone.

101+, no way is Dunn a HOFer, not even close...

jhs5120 · #9 09-02-2014, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

101+, no way is Dunn a HOFer, not even close...

I agree that Adam Dunn is not a Hall of Fame caliber player, but to say it's "not even close" is a bit of a stretch in my opinion.

nolemmings · #10 09-02-2014, 03:42 PM

Adam Dunn reached the 40 HR mark five times, once in the AL where he finished behind Bautista, Hamilton, Encarnacion and Curtis Granderson - hardly juicers row.

On one of the four occasions in the NL, Dunn didn't finish in the top 10 in MLB, and couldn't even pass Carlos Beltran or Andruw Jones (among others) in his own league.

The three other times he fell short of Adrian Beltre, Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols, not Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Other seasons he chased the likes of Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder. His failure to rise to the top of his own league much less all of MLB is not a story attributed others' PED use.

pbspelly · #11 09-02-2014, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nolemmings

Although I agree with your response generally, the comparison to Killebrew is weak.

You may be correct. I didn't spend a lot of time analyzing the numbers.

vintagetoppsguy · #12 09-02-2014, 04:21 PM

I've stated that if this is indeed Dunn's last year, then he doesn't make the HOF. But let's say this isn't Dunn's last year. Let's say he goes on to play 3 more years and averages 30 HRs a year and finishes his career with around 550 HRs. Is he a HOFer then?

packs · #13 09-02-2014, 04:35 PM

Dunn not making the cut aside, I don't see how someone can say that if a player hits home runs well that doesn't warrant a HOF induction. Until the very recent past there was a number of home runs you could hit and make the HOF automatically.

Runscott · #14 09-02-2014, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

Dunn not making the cut aside, I don't see how someone can say that if a player hits home runs well that doesn't warrant a HOF induction. Until the very recent past there was a number of home runs you could hit and make the HOF automatically.

Quote:

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Because, as mentioned above, there used to be a number (500) of homeruns that a player could hit and automatically make the HOF. I believe that still exists.

That's flawed logic. Just because players who hit a certain number of home runs made the HOF, doesn't mean they would have done so if their batting average had sucked.

David - I'm not trying to be contentious here. I think that Dunn's batting average could suck, but there could be other things he does, above and beyond what the other 500+ guys did, that could make up for it. For example, if he was a great-fielding second-baseman, or stole bases and scored a lot of runs. I think his OBP is worth considering, but I don't think that's enough.

CMIZ5290 · #15 09-02-2014, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I've stated that if this is indeed Dunn's last year, then he doesn't make the HOF. But let's say this isn't Dunn's last year. Let's say he goes on to play 3 more years and averages 30 HRs a year and finishes his career with around 550 HRs. Is he a HOFer then?

Just curious, would you put Dunn in the Hall instead of someone like Dale Murphy? Home runs are not everything. This guy's career batting average can't be a lot higher than .220, and he strikes out at a ratio of more than anyone I have ever seen. Defensively, I've never heard much about him either. So, it's home runs and that's it?

vintagetoppsguy · #16 09-02-2014, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Just curious, would you put Dunn in the Hall instead of someone like Dale Murphy? Home runs are not everything. This guy's career batting average can't be a lot higher than .220, and he strikes out at a ratio of more than anyone I have ever seen. Defensively, I've never heard much about him either. So, it's home runs and that's it?

Because, as mentioned above, there used to be a number (500) of homeruns that a player could hit and automatically make the HOF. I believe that still exists.

I don't believe that same number will be used to measure players that used PEDs. But for players that didn't use PEDs (and I truly belive Dunn has not), I believe that is still the magic number.

I believe that any player that hits 500 HRs and is not associated with PEDs should automatically make the HOF regardless of any other statistics. If you disagree, that is fine. That's just my opinion.

the 'stache · #17 09-05-2014, 01:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I've stated that if this is indeed Dunn's last year, then he doesn't make the HOF. But let's say this isn't Dunn's last year. Let's say he goes on to play 3 more years and averages 30 HRs a year and finishes his career with around 550 HRs. Is he a HOFer then?

No.

I respect that you are an Adam Dunn fan. I think he's been a great power hitter, and I also think he's been more than just a power hitter with the walks he's taken. And I think if he reaches 500 home runs without taking any PEDs in an era when many did, he is to be commended.

But I still don't think he's a Hall of Famer. If he manages to hit 500 home runs, he did it by being one of the top home run hitters in the Majors for quite some time. But he was never the best home run hitter. He never led the American league in runs, home runs, RBI, average, slugging average, OBP, or OPS. Not once. In 14 seasons, he never led his league in any of the premier hitting metrics.

He's never won an MVP. But not only has he not won an MVP, he's never finished in the top 5 of any MVP vote. He's never finished in the top 10, or the top 15, or even the top 20 of any MVP vote. His best finish in an MVP race was 21st in 2010. That means every single one of the fourteen years he played, the Baseball Writers thought there were at least 20 other players in the American League...not even in all of baseball, but just in the American League, that were better than Adam Dunn.

Adam Dunn has never won a Silver Slugger. That means he was never even the best power hitter at his position in the American League. There was always somebody better.

There just isn't anything remarkable about Dunn's career. He gets points for longevity, and consistency.

I am a baseball fanatic. I watch 100 games at least every year. I watch the races. I read the newspaper. I subscribe to Baseball America, and MLB.tv, and watch the MLB channel religiously. At no time in the near decade and a half since Adam Dunn has been a Major Leaguer did I consider him a superstar, or Hall of Fame worthy. Again, he walks more than people probably were aware of. But besides the walks, Dunn is a home run hitter with a nearly 35% career strikeout rate. There isn't anything more to him.

You know how many 30 home run seasons there have been between 2001 and 2014?

371

Hitting 30 home runs is good. It is nothing special, however.

What about 40 home run seasons?

There have been 83 40 home run seasons between 2001 and 2014. Ok, that's, of course, tougher to do. Dunn appears on this list six times. Dunn's best season is good for 33rd on the list of best individual home run seasons since 2001. There have been 13 seasons of 50 or more home runs.

But typically, people that hit a lot of home runs and make the Hall of Fame did other things well. Mays and Aaron, Ruth, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Jimmie Foxx, Willie McCovey, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Matthews, Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds. The other guys were great hitters. Some were elite fielders. Most of them were the best players in baseball at least once or twice in their career.

Dunn never finished in the top 20 of any MVP vote!

Adam Dunn should, and will be remembered as a great power hitter. But he wasn't, at least in my educated opinion, an elite baseball player. He could hit the ball out of the park. When he wasn't hitting a home run, he really wasn't contributing to his team much in an other way.

I just don't see him in Cooperstown.

Edit: by the way, JAWS (Jaffe War Score System) has Adam Dunn listed as the 133rd best left fielder of all-time.

vintagetoppsguy · #18 09-05-2014, 08:05 AM

Bill,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question while others overlooked it. Although it was a hypothetical question (but a realistic possibility), I thought it was a valid question.

You may be right, 550 HRs may not be enough to get him into Cooperstown, who knows? But regardless of all his other stats (low BA, all the SO, etc), there has to be a point where they have to let him in just because of the number of home runs overshadows all the other stats. For example if he ends up playing another 5 years (puts him at 39 years old - again a realistic possibility) averaging 30 HRs a year, he would end up in the ballpark of 600 HRs. I don't think you can keep him out at that point, I don't care if his BA drops to .200 and he SO on every 4/5 ABs. 600 HR is HOF worthy no matter what (again not considering PED issues) in my opinion.

I get what you're saying about no MVP, SS, GG, etc. But there are other players in the HOF that never one any of those titles either. Look at Nolan Ryan. He never won a CY, won only 20 or more games twice in his 27 years, an ERA title only once and lost more games than he won 7 years. Yeah, he won 324 games in his career, but when you consider he played for 27 years, that's only 12 wins a year. He never had any of the accolades that you're (and others) saying Dunn never had. Don't get me wrong, I love Ryan and think he is great. We're from the same home town and I even played ball with his oldest son. But all I'm saying is that all of these titles you're (and others) saying Dunn has never won, well the same can be said for many HOFers.

Regards,

David

Quote:

Originally Posted by the 'stache

No.

I respect that you are an Adam Dunn fan. I think he's been a great power hitter, and I also think he's been more than just a power hitter with the walks he's taken. And I think if he reaches 500 home runs without taking any PEDs in an era when many did, he is to be commended.

But I still don't think he's a Hall of Famer. If he manages to hit 500 home runs, he did it by being one of the top home run hitters in the Majors for quite some time. But he was never the best home run hitter. He never led the American league in runs, home runs, RBI, average, slugging average, OBP, or OPS. Not once. In 14 seasons, he never led his league in any of the premier hitting metrics.

He's never won an MVP. But not only has he not won an MVP, he's never finished in the top 5 of any MVP vote. He's never finished in the top 10, or the top 15, or even the top 20 of any MVP vote. His best finish in an MVP race was 21st in 2010. That means every single one of the fourteen years he played, the Baseball Writers thought there were at least 20 other players in the American League...not even in all of baseball, but just in the American League, that were better than Adam Dunn.

Adam Dunn has never won a Silver Slugger. That means he was never even the best power hitter at his position in the American League. There was always somebody better.

There just isn't anything remarkable about Dunn's career. He gets points for longevity, and consistency.

I am a baseball fanatic. I watch 100 games at least every year. I watch the races. I read the newspaper. I subscribe to Baseball America, and MLB.tv, and watch the MLB channel religiously. At no time in the near decade and a half since Adam Dunn has been a Major Leaguer did I consider him a superstar, or Hall of Fame worthy. Again, he walks more than people probably were aware of. But besides the walks, Dunn is a home run hitter with a nearly 35% career strikeout rate. There isn't anything more to him.

You know how many 30 home run seasons there have been between 2001 and 2014?

371

Hitting 30 home runs is good. It is nothing special, however.

What about 40 home run seasons?

There have been 83 40 home run seasons between 2001 and 2014. Ok, that's, of course, tougher to do. Dunn appears on this list six times. Dunn's best season is good for 33rd on the list of best individual home run seasons since 2001. There have been 13 seasons of 50 or more home runs.

But typically, people that hit a lot of home runs and make the Hall of Fame did other things well. Mays and Aaron, Ruth, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Jimmie Foxx, Willie McCovey, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Matthews, Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds. The other guys were great hitters. Some were elite fielders. Most of them were the best players in baseball at least once or twice in their career.

Dunn never finished in the top 20 of any MVP vote!

Adam Dunn should, and will be remembered as a great power hitter. But he wasn't, at least in my educated opinion, an elite baseball player. He could hit the ball out of the park. When he wasn't hitting a home run, he really wasn't contributing to his team much in an other way.

I just don't see him in Cooperstown.

Edit: by the way, JAWS (Jaffe War Score System) has Adam Dunn listed as the 133rd best left fielder of all-time.

Runscott · #19 09-02-2014, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pbspelly

Unless you are saying that someone who hits 40 homers, 35 doubles, and walks 100 times a year can NEVER be HOF material--no matter how many times he does it--so long as he's slow and strikes out a lot.

I have no idea how you made that leap of logic from what I posted.

pbspelly · #20 09-02-2014, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Runscott

I have no idea how you made that leap of logic from what I posted.

No great leap on my part, I don't think.

You wrote that Dunn had some great years and hit a lot of homers yet his "overall performance" was not HOF-worthy. So the question is, what does the word "overall" mean. It either means (a) his overall career stats, in other words, the number of great years where he hit a lot of homers, or (b) his overall skillset (his game apart from homers and doubles and walks). Since I conceded in my original post that he had not had enough great seasons, it seemed that you had to be arguing that his overall skillset was not HOF-worthy, not that he hadn't had enough great years. In which case, you are saying that averaging 40 homers, 35 doubles, and 100 walks a year (Dunn during his prime) does not make you a Hall of Famer if the rest of your overall performance is unexceptional. Which is a perfectly legitimate point of view. Just not one that I share.

Runscott · #21 09-02-2014, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pbspelly

No great leap on my part, I don't think.

You wrote that....

Rather than dealing with exactly what I said, you added "Unless you are saying". Now you are stating "You wrote that..." There is no need to put words in my mouth - I was saying exactly what I said - no straw man, no twists, just plain simple English. So we disagree - no big deal. The HOF if full of guys who shouldn't be there - add Adam Dunn. What the heck.

pbspelly · #22 09-02-2014, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Runscott

Rather than dealing with exactly what I said, you added "Unless you are saying". Now you are stating "You wrote that..." There is no need to put words in my mouth - I was saying exactly what I said - no straw man, no twists, just plain simple English. So we disagree - no big deal. The HOF if full of guys who shouldn't be there - add Adam Dunn. What the heck.

Quoting what you wrote is not putting words in your mouth. Unless someone hacked your account ...

whatever

#23 09-02-2014, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pbspelly

Killebrew, by the way, has stats that are somewhat comparable to Dunn in his prime, but Killebrew maintained the high level of play for longer.

Yikes - I'm a big Killebrew fan, and I cringe whenever I see him compared to players like Dunn, or even Thome. Even if you double Dunn's prime stats, he ain't no Killebrew.

Killebrew won an MVP, Dunn hasn't.
Killebrew was in the top 5 in MVP voting 6 times, Dunn never has been.
Killebrew was an 11-time AS, Dunn was twice.

Killebrew was a 6-time HR champ, Dunn never has been.
Killebrew was a 3-time RBI champ, Dunn never has been.
Killebrew was in the top 5 in RBI 9 times, Dunn never has been.

Killebrew was in the top 5 in SA 10 times, Dunn was once.
Killebrew's BA was 3 points below the league average, Dunn's is 30 below.
Killebrew's SA was 116 points above the league average, Dunn's is 66 above.
Killebrew's OPS was 160 points above the league average, Dunn's is 94 above.

Killebrew led the league in strikeouts just once to Dunn's 4 times
Killebrew was in the top 5 in SO only 5 times to Dunn's 11
Dunn has struck out an incredible 64% more frequently than Killebrew (despite Harmon's hit-or-miss reputation, his strikeout frequency was only 3 percentage points higher than the league average during his career)

My favorite stat for Harmon is one I've never seen published anywhere: In 10 different seasons he hit 25 or more home runs in an 82 games or fewer stretch, with 33 in 81 games in 1964, 30 in 82 games in both 1959 and 1969, and 29 in just 75 games in 1967.

pbspelly · #24 09-02-2014, 05:28 PM

I will concede that Killebrew was a better player. Certainly over his career.

My point was about individual seasons in their prime. Take a look below at typical seasons in their prime and see if you can tell which are Dunn and which are Killebrew and you'll see what I meant.

106 runs, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 49 hrs, 140 rbi, 145 walks, 84 strikeouts, .427 on base pctg, .585 slugging average

107 runs, 34 doubles, 0 triples, 46 hrs, 102 rbi, 108 walks, 195 strikeouts, .388 on base pctg, .569 slugging avg

79 runs, 23 doubles, 0 triples, 40 hrs, 100 rbi, 122 walks, 164 strikeouts, .386 obp, .513 sa

85 runs, 21 doubles, 1 triple, 48 hrs, 126 rbi, 106 walks, 142 strikeouts, .366 obp, .545 sa

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