Manufactured scarcity vs. actual rarity

[steve B]

It's hard to say how they'll be looked at years from now. What's popular changes with time and I've seen a few things that were easy to get years ago become really good items. I've also seen some really popular stuff fade a bit or barely hold value.

Modern created rarities are cool in a way, and generally they're just what the serial number says. Having something that there's only 1 or 10 or 25 of is pretty cool.

But the downside is that there are so many of them they aren't seen as being anything special. And the current climate for modern stuff is more of a lottery ticket mentality. It's actually cheaper to buy the base sets from someone that opened a bunch of whatever it is. And the common inserts are really better bought that way if it's a set you're after.

I think some of the second tier stuff will actually do better in the long run. Almost nobody has a real shot at completing a set of the 1/1s or event the 1/25s. So they'll probably fade to being curiosities. But stuff like the retail specific inserts - The white paper framed GQs, or the ones with a border specific to a chain - Red for target, usually purple for Wal-Mart are something that's possible to complete. As time goes by they're also a bit tougher to come by, and I think underrated. I've done some quick approximations and they're likely tougher than anyone thinks. At least as tough as similar inserts like the more common paper framed GQs which are numbered to 499.

As far as manufactured rarity being a modern thing goes, There's a number of prewar sets and even postwar sets with manufactured rarities that get respect. R300 Ivy Andrews, US Caramel Lindstrom, The winner cards from the Atlantic oil set, In some ways most of the post/jello sets. A lot of sets had deliberately shortprinted cards.

Some of the most interesting stuff to me is the stuff marketed to collectors outside of the normal dealer channels. Shop at home exclusives and sometimes catalog retail exclusives. I lucked into a basketball set that was only done through Sears catalogs. The ones they showed were the normal cards, but it was a set of 100. It was in the catalog for well over a year. Then mom noticed a flyer with them on closeout. Figuring the "set " might be a picked group of stars and better players assembled by a company like treat I said sure, for a couple bucks each I may as well get a couple. When I got them they were a totally different set. Yellow borders, different checklist, pretty cool. I've only seen a couple sets offered since, at silly prices. Of course I missed the Topps/Nestles baseball because the ad showed sheets of normal Topps cards.


Steve B



Steve B