OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[Peter_Spaeth]

[QUOTE=vintagetoppsguy;1318369}
I realize we're only 3 games into the month, but isn't 4 for 8 with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs is a pretty good start to September, or am I missing something?[/QUOTE]

How's Adam doing, we haven't heard from you?

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How's Adam doing, we haven't heard from you?

Since joining the A's, he's batting .278 (better than his career average) with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Adam will be gald you asked about him

[packs]

I still believe that 500 homers is the magic number and should be a lock. The only players to eclipse that mark and not be voted in are suspected or admitted cheaters. If you have to cheat to accomplish a feat like 500 homers, then that must mean there is some significance to the accomplishment.

Craig Biggio reached 3,000 hits without ever being a great player. No MVP awards, though he did receive votes. Since he didn't make it, is the new number 3,500 hits? 3,250?

[pbspelly]

Originally Posted by packs

I still believe that 500 homers is the magic number and should be a lock. The only players to eclipse that mark and not be voted in are suspected or admitted cheaters. If you have to cheat to accomplish a feat like 500 homers, then that must mean there is some significance to the accomplishment.

Craig Biggio reached 3,000 hits without ever being a great player. No MVP awards, though he did receive votes. Since he didn't make it, is the new number 3,500 hits? 3,250?

Biggio will eventually make it. He only missed by two votes, and no player has debuted on the ballot with more votes and been shut out in the end. And besides Gil Hodges and Jack Morris, every player who has ever received at least 50 percent of the vote has ultimately landed in Cooperstown — either by election or via the veterans committee.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Gary, I've said it before but I think you missed it: the statement that 500 HR's is a lock for the HOF is FAILED LOGIC. '500 HRs' is not why these guys got into the HOF - it is only part of it. The guys with 500 HR's did a lot more than just hit 500 HR's. Adam Dunn has done a lot less.

I agree that 500 is not a lock. Adam Dunn is a liability to a team and should hold the record for the worst season in 2011 (but the manager played the stats game and kept him out of 6 extra at bats to make sure it didn't go down as a full season).

Originally Posted by packs

I still believe that 500 homers is the magic number and should be a lock. The only players to eclipse that mark and not be voted in are suspected or admitted cheaters. If you have to cheat to accomplish a feat like 500 homers, then that must mean there is some significance to the accomplishment.

Craig Biggio reached 3,000 hits without ever being a great player. No MVP awards, though he did receive votes. Since he didn't make it, is the new number 3,500 hits? 3,250?

Craig Biggio contributed a lot more to his team than Dunn did. Biggio's RAA (runs above average) is 306, with 257 coming from batting. Dunn's RAA is -82, he even has a worse number with batting than Biggio at 217.

The HOF should be smarter than looking at one stat, and they have been. No one has gotten in as a player with a negative RAA that I have seen (I could have missed someone EDIT - I looked through every HOF and there is one with a negative RAA: Lloyd Waner had a -4).

Here is a list of everyone with more career home runs than Dunn and their RAA. The lowest is 136 with Canseco. The lowest HOFer is 213 with Winfield.

RAA		# HR
1243	Barry*Bonds*(22)	762
862	Hank*Aaron+*(23)	755
1327	Babe*Ruth+*(22)	714
1041	Willie*Mays+*(22)	660
796	Alex*Rodriguez*(20, 38)	654
482	Ken*Griffey*(22)	630
383	Jim*Thome*(22)	612
301	Sammy*Sosa*(18)	609
613	Frank*Robinson+*(21)	586
379	Mark*McGwire*(16)	583
280	Harmon*Killebrew+*(22)	573
291	Rafael*Palmeiro*(20)	569
313	Reggie*Jackson+*(21)	563
363	Manny*Ramirez*(19, 42)	555
681	Mike*Schmidt+*(18)	548
788	Mickey*Mantle+*(18)	536
695	Jimmie*Foxx+*(20)	534
274	Willie*McCovey+*(22)	521
393	Frank*Thomas+*(19)	521
949	Ted*Williams+*(19)	521
692	Albert*Pujols*(14, 34)	518
284	Ernie*Banks+*(19)	512
578	Eddie*Mathews+*(17)	512
719	Mel*Ott+*(22)	511
270	Gary*Sheffield*(22)	509
242	Eddie*Murray+*(21)	504
862	Lou*Gehrig+*(17)	493
188	Fred*McGriff*(19)	493
809	Stan*Musial+*(22)	475
239	Willie*Stargell+*(21)	475
157	Carlos*Delgado*(17)	473
562	Chipper*Jones*(19)	468
213	Dave*Winfield+*(22)	465
152	David*Ortiz*(18, 38)	463
136	Jose*Canseco*(17)	462
-82	Adam*Dunn*(14, 34)	462

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Since joining the A's, he's batting .278 (better than his career average) with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Adam will be gald you asked about him

Don't sell that pile of Dunn rookies just yet!!

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Don't sell that pile of Dunn rookies just yet!!

That's my retirement fund. Who needs a 401k?

[sayhey24]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Since joining the A's, he's batting .278 (better than his career average) with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Adam will be gald you asked about him

Those numbers translate to 21 HR and 75 RBI over the course of a 150 game season -- those aren't the numbers you're looking for from a player whose only calling card for the Hall of Fame is his power.

Greg

[nolemmings]

"Adam Dunn is a liability to a team and should hold the record for the worst season in 2011 (but the manager played the stats game and kept him out of 6 extra at bats to make sure it didn't go down as a full season)."

I had forgotten just how awful he was in that 2011 season--his AL debut. He actually had more strikeouts than batting average points 177 to 159. .159? That's below the Mrs. Mendoza line.

EDITED to add: I see where he followed that up with another season of Ks>avg, when he whiffed 222 times and hit .204 in 2012.

[packs]

There's no defending that season. But if you're going to knock him for it then Reggie should be in the conversation too:

1983: hit .194 with 140 K's in 397 AB's with a .290 OBP.

At this point Reggie had not yet hit 500 homers.

[nolemmings]

Conversation maybe, but Reggie still had 11 more hits than Dunn in 99 fewer at bats, and had more HR, RBI and 60 OPS points on Dunn. Oh, and he was 37 years old, not 31 like Dunn, who was coming over to own the AL once he got to put his glove away. Or not.

EDITED TO ADD: Dunn finished 6 plate appearances from qualifying for the batting title. Assuming he went 1-6, a slight increase in his average, he would have finished with the worst BA by a qualifying hitter in 100 years.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

There's no defending that season. But if you're going to knock him for it then Reggie should be in the conversation too:

1983: hit .194 with 140 K's in 397 AB's with a .290 OBP.

At this point Reggie had not yet hit 500 homers.

HAHA that is reaching. Reggie Jackson had already played 15 seasons after his rookie year debut. He was 37 years old.

Also Dunn has 3 worse season's than Jackson's second worst full (or aprox full, I dropped the requirement to more than 400PA, instead of the 502) in 1984.

Dunn's came 11 years after his rookie year debut and was 31. Also Jackson only got 458 PA due to injuries. Dunn only got 496 so that he wouldn't be considered the worst player in history. Again look at the overall RAA for the two players in their career, Jackson was at 313. He still attributed more than the average player did.

[Centauri]

By 1984, Reggie had 13 All Star appearances, 7 top tens in the MVP voting, winning in 73. Plus some medium level of success in the post-season, if I understand it right.