OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

pbspelly · #1 09-23-2014, 08:26 AM

Really it comes down to this, which would you rather have? I just don't think it's close.

packs · #2 09-23-2014, 09:21 AM

I don't know what happened but John Olerud in my opinion was clearly the better player. Better peak seasons, hit over .350 twice compared to Hernandez not ever doing it, more power, higher OBP and SLG.

Econteachert205 · #3 09-23-2014, 09:34 AM

If anyone involved with the creation of and initial inductions in the Hall were still alive they would be apoplectic about a conversation including names like Dunn, Hernandez and Olerud. Just because a bunch of marginal guys were voted in in the 1960's and 70's by the veterans committee does not mean its ok to continue the policy. Reggie Jackson: He is a no brainer yes on so many levels. To be honest, post WWII, Rookie card prices (minus rare series premiums) are the best indicator for Hall Of Fame worthiness. The market is the best judge of all.

btw Will Clark was as good as Olerud and Hernandez, which is to say NOT good enough for the hall.

packs · #4 09-23-2014, 09:38 AM

I think the discussion is really about how there's one guy who is no doubt a HOFer or just outside of being a HOFer in the eyes of many but for each of those players there is someone else who is only slightly less productive and seen as not even being close. So now we're talking about guys on the fringe or in and players that mirror them but are for one reason or another not even in the conversation.

I think the take away is that if a guy isn't exceptional in every sense of the word he has no business in the HOF.

Peter_Spaeth · #5 09-23-2014, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I think the discussion is really about how there's one guy who is no doubt a HOFer or just outside of being a HOFer in the eyes of many but for each of those players there is someone else who is only slightly less productive and seen as not even being close. So now we're talking about guys on the fringe or in and players that mirror them but are for one reason or another not even in the conversation.

I think the take away is that if a guy isn't exceptional in every sense of the word he has no business in the HOF.

Yep. You could let in 25 or more players on the ground that they were better, as good or very nearly as good as someone already in, and then you would have to let 100 more in by the same logic. It never would end.

bn2cardz · #6 09-23-2014, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yep. You could let in 25 or more players on the ground that they were better, as good or very nearly as good as someone already in, and then you would have to let 100 more in by the same logic. It never would end.

The discussion deffinatly needs to be done with what is considered the minimum. If a guy is middle of the pack of HOFers and better than player that most would discredit then you have a case. For instance you can't ever compare a new guy to Schalk, L. Waner, Mazeroski or high pockets Kelly. Even some less debatable players may not make comparable like Brock who was mainly in for being a stat leader.

Paul S · #7 10-01-2014, 01:25 PM

"Adam Dunn, 34, calls it a career":

http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2014...league-seasons

bn2cardz · #8 09-23-2014, 10:10 AM

Wow this "Dunn" thread really has many transitions and debates coming out of it. The Hernandez and Olerud is an interesting one. They are both similar. A stat that I have been looking at more is RAA (Runs above average, this looks at offense and defense combined).

Olerud 17 season career RAA: 273
Hernandez 17 season career RAA: 291

Olerud 7 Season RAA (His highest RAA seasons totaled): 244
Hernandez 7 Season RAA (His highest RAA seasons totaled):230

Olerud 10 Season RAA (His highest RAA seasons totaled): 275
Hernandez 10 Season RAA (His highest RAA seasons totaled):285

Olerud best RAA season: 57 in 1998, 55 from Rbat (Runs from batting above average)
Hernandez best RAA season: 50 in 1979, 40 from Rbat (Runs from batting above average)

Looking at this Olerud was the better batter, but his dominance over Hernadez drops after their 7 year bests. Olerud's 10 year is better than his career. Meaning he had 10 great years (not consecutive) but those were peak years in a 17 year career. Hernandez total gets larger even after his 10 best years, this to me shows that he was more consistent leading to a better career total.

I am still working a 7 and 10 year stat into all of the HOFers, but just comparing the two to the other 17 year career HOFers here is where their career RAA lines them up:

Name	Position	RAA	# Seasons
Bill Mazeroski	2nd	38	17
Rollie Fingers	P	60	17
Pie Traynor	3rd	115	17
Harry Hooper	RF	148	17
Monte Ward	SS	152	17
Orlando Cepeda	1st	159	17
Heinie Manush	LF	164	17
Roger Bresnahan	C	206	17
Chuck Klein	RF	224	17
Jim Bunning	P	234	17
Hugh Duffy	CF	240	17
Ernie Lombardi	C	243	17
Frank Chance	1st	257	17
John Olerud	1st	273	17
Joe Medwick	LF	285	17
Keith Hernandez	1st	291	17
Joe Kelley	LF	301	17
Hal Newhouser	P	314	17
Roberto Alomar	2nd	320	17
Bill Dickey	C	340	17
Bob Gibson	P	376	17
Eddie Plank	P	388	17
Harry Heilmann	RF	409	17
Johnny Bench	C	422	17
Christy Mathewson	P	470	17
Eddie Mathews	3rd	578	17

As seen they would be in good company with Joe Medwick in between the two of them and not a single 1st baseman above them. Looking at RAA/season average we can do a quick comparison to all the 1st basemen (but I do believe a 7 and 10 year comparison would be more accurate once I get that completed but as of now have only done aprox 30 HOFers).

Name	Position	RAA	# Seasons	RAA/Season avg
High Pockets Kelly	1st	57	16	3.56
Jim Bottomley	1st	98	16	6.13
Tony Perez	1st	155	23	6.74
Orlando Cepeda	1st	159	17	9.35
Eddie Murray	1st	242	21	11.52
Willie McCovey	1st	274	22	12.45
Harmon Killebrew	1st	280	22	12.73
George Sisler	1st	208	15	13.87
Ernie Banks	1st	284	19	14.95
Frank Chance	1st	257	17	15.12
Jake Beckley	1st	320	20	16.00
John Olerud	1st	273	17	16.06
Keith Hernandez	1st	291	17	17.12
Rod Carew	1st	424	19	22.32
Bill Terry	1st	334	14	23.86
Cap Anson	1st	667	27	24.70
Johnny Mize	1st	442	15	29.47
Hank Greenberg	1st	393	13	30.23
Dan Brouthers	1st	652	19	34.32
Jimmie Foxx	1st	695	20	34.75
Roger Connor	1st	648	18	36.00
Stan Musial	1st	809	22	36.77

This would show them as midlevel 1st baseman HOFers even above the previously debated Killebrew.

PS I am sorry about the spacing issue between the tables and the other text, but without using a table it is hard to keep it organized to be readable.

clydepepper · #9 10-01-2014, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Wow this "Dunn" thread really has many transitions and debates coming out of it. The Hernandez and Olerud is an interesting one. They are both similar. A stat that I have been looking at more is RAA (Runs above average, this looks at offense and defense combined).

Olerud 17 season career RAA: 273
Hernandez 17 season career RAA: 291

Olerud 7 Season RAA (His highest RAA seasons totaled): 244
Hernandez 7 Season RAA (His highest RAA seasons totaled):230

Olerud 10 Season RAA (His highest RAA seasons totaled): 275
Hernandez 10 Season RAA (His highest RAA seasons totaled):285

Olerud best RAA season: 57 in 1998, 55 from Rbat (Runs from batting above average)
Hernandez best RAA season: 50 in 1979, 40 from Rbat (Runs from batting above average)

Looking at this Olerud was the better batter, but his dominance over Hernadez drops after their 7 year bests. Olerud's 10 year is better than his career. Meaning he had 10 great years (not consecutive) but those were peak years in a 17 year career. Hernandez total gets larger even after his 10 best years, this to me shows that he was more consistent leading to a better career total.

I am still working a 7 and 10 year stat into all of the HOFers, but just comparing the two to the other 17 year career HOFers here is where their career RAA lines them up:

Name	Position	RAA	# Seasons
Bill Mazeroski	2nd	38	17
Rollie Fingers	P	60	17
Pie Traynor	3rd	115	17
Harry Hooper	RF	148	17
Monte Ward	SS	152	17
Orlando Cepeda	1st	159	17
Heinie Manush	LF	164	17
Roger Bresnahan	C	206	17
Chuck Klein	RF	224	17
Jim Bunning	P	234	17
Hugh Duffy	CF	240	17
Ernie Lombardi	C	243	17
Frank Chance	1st	257	17
John Olerud	1st	273	17
Joe Medwick	LF	285	17
Keith Hernandez	1st	291	17
Joe Kelley	LF	301	17
Hal Newhouser	P	314	17
Roberto Alomar	2nd	320	17
Bill Dickey	C	340	17
Bob Gibson	P	376	17
Eddie Plank	P	388	17
Harry Heilmann	RF	409	17
Johnny Bench	C	422	17
Christy Mathewson	P	470	17
Eddie Mathews	3rd	578	17

As seen they would be in good company with Joe Medwick in between the two of them and not a single 1st baseman above them. Looking at RAA/season average we can do a quick comparison to all the 1st basemen (but I do believe a 7 and 10 year comparison would be more accurate once I get that completed but as of now have only done aprox 30 HOFers).

Name	Position	RAA	# Seasons	RAA/Season avg
High Pockets Kelly	1st	57	16	3.56
Jim Bottomley	1st	98	16	6.13
Tony Perez	1st	155	23	6.74
Orlando Cepeda	1st	159	17	9.35
Eddie Murray	1st	242	21	11.52
Willie McCovey	1st	274	22	12.45
Harmon Killebrew	1st	280	22	12.73
George Sisler	1st	208	15	13.87
Ernie Banks	1st	284	19	14.95
Frank Chance	1st	257	17	15.12
Jake Beckley	1st	320	20	16.00
John Olerud	1st	273	17	16.06
Keith Hernandez	1st	291	17	17.12
Rod Carew	1st	424	19	22.32
Bill Terry	1st	334	14	23.86
Cap Anson	1st	667	27	24.70
Johnny Mize	1st	442	15	29.47
Hank Greenberg	1st	393	13	30.23
Dan Brouthers	1st	652	19	34.32
Jimmie Foxx	1st	695	20	34.75
Roger Connor	1st	648	18	36.00
Stan Musial	1st	809	22	36.77

This would show them as midlevel 1st baseman HOFers even above the previously debated Killebrew.

PS I am sorry about the spacing issue between the tables and the other text, but without using a table it is hard to keep it organized to be readable.

Continuing the Adam Dunn discussion, that's great research Andy - do you think maybe you left just one HOF 1B out of your list?

I'm glad to see my two GA boys, Bill Terry and Johnny Mize fair so well against the competition.

Adam Dunn was a fun guy to watch and a humerous interview, but he has no place in the HOF - and, in his on self-effacing manor, he has frequently said so. I'll miss his modesty and his Kingman-esk or Balbonic style.

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