My Unique Goudey 1933 High-Grade Pop Report Rankings

[h2oya311]

My only comment is that people generally get the HOFers and low numbers graded in greater numbers than other commons. Perhaps percentages (by player) would give you another list w/r/t high-grade scarcity.

For full disclosure, I am neither a 1933 Goudey collector nor an actuary, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!

[RGold]

The low numbers are #1-40 and #45-52. These were the cards on the first two sheets. Remember, Goudey cards were printed on ten 24 card sheets, and as Goudey liked to do, not in strict numerical order. Theory has it that this was a marketing ploy to fool kids into trying to find cards that had not yet been printed and distributed.

Greg, I think any type of analysis such as you are attempting does not make sense. This is a very thin market with low supply, few collectors, and thus not enough transactions.

May I suggest a different approach. Most of the low number commons have a population of 8-15 in PSA 8. Most commons from the higher series number 10-20 in PSA 8.

Now look at the PSA Registry and you will find that there are only 5 sets at 8 or higher and they are complete. So these are not potential buyers. There are currently no sets being built in PSA 8. So no buyers there. Certainly, there are no player set builders for common players.

I know there are buyers of PSA 8 Goudeys that are not on the Registry because I sell to them. But they are never going to attempt to complete the set at $500,000 plus, and they have little interest in buying $1,000 low series commons.

Last month you bought a #21 Collins at a fair price because you weren't bidding against anybody other than dealers or people like you looking for a deal. That is not a recipe for record prices unless the auctions are sham sales as we see many cards being sold and then offered again in a short time.

The only supply of high grade Goudeys is coming from set breaks. The cards on eBay from last night, were highly desirable low population cards. The prices were good but certainly not pre-2008 type prices. As you observed though, the Goudey market does seem a little stronger lately.

It seems to me that the only way to predict prices on Goudey auctions is to identify the potential buyers, knowing that in a thin market you might not see the two or three serious bidders necessary to get a fair reading on prices.

[GregMitch34]

RG, good points, but I would respond that the ranking of relative "scarcity" in high grades is hardly irrelevant, since some, from prices, seem to be going to pop report themselves and bidding accordingly--not totally consistently but close enough. Of course, you never know what might happen in future and I have made no claims on pricing--I was simply providing a ranking. Contrary to what you say, there have been plenty of "transactions" lately.

It's odd that you suggest no one is really collecting for sets, yet the commons are selling readily and at record prices--at least post-2008. Comparing the prices to 2008 as you do is unfair--if you compare to a few months ago the prices have jumped a lot, even if that's only temporary.

You suggest no one would pay 1000 for a low-series common but someone paid 980 for one last night. Also last night a large number of PSA 8 commons that were higher numbers went for 750 to 950--in most cases, seemingly, based on pop reports. And many that were not "highest graded" still went for over $500--or $150-200 more than they did recently. So "something" is going on...even if, again, briefly.

BTW, I have exactly two PSA 8s so I am hardly deeply invested in this...

[RGold]

Well, I was trying to help, not wanting to argue.

I AM heavily invested in Goudeys so I hope your impression of the market is true. Goudey prices have shown a glimmer of strength in the last two months. Goodwin Auctions had a very successful offering of SGC high grades that were newly graded.

The PWCC eBay auctions were ok. The ones a few weeks ago were mostly your run of the mill commons, SMR $385, and that's pretty much what they brought. Last night's auctions included some very tough low pop commons and the prices were good but not records. But believe me, I was glad to see good prices because 1930's card prices have been so stagnant the last 5 years.

Another positive for the Goudey market has been the increase in Babe Ruth SMR prices.

As for your analysis, whatever works for you.

[GregMitch34]

Yes, I noted SGC prices for those also rose--a sure sign of...something. As you know, they are far from favored for the '33s. Maybe that is changing slightly.

[GregMitch34]

Finally took closer look at that Goodwin auction last month with all those SGCs for Goudey 33s and impressed more than ever with price hikes. Only for the 8s or 8.5s but that's only what I'm interested in, anyway. And again, people do seem to, loosely, follow pop reports (and HOFers).