Do you worry about our hobby dying?

[bigtrain]

Are you a baseball fan to the exclusion of all other sports?
I am not and I am guessing that few are. Considering the growth
Of the US population, I would guess that there are
more baseball fans today than ever. I have no concerns about
baseball or the hobby going away.

[Al C.risafulli]

Not at all.

More than 73 million MLB tickets were sold in 2014. Just north of 30 million were sold in 1974. This past season, the team ranked lowest in attendance - Tampa Bay - drew 1,446,000 fans. That would have ranked them 7th in 1974. This past season, 11 teams outdrew the #1 ranked team in 1974.

None of that factors in all the heavy cable TV contracts, 24-hour sports news networks, sports talk radio, and big money transactions in our hobby that make news on a regular basis. I think there's more awareness, exposure, an interest in our hobby than ever before, and as people get older and want to reconnect with nostalgia, I think that's only going upward.

-Al

[Brian Van Horn]

Just perusing the comments.

If we are talking about baseball, no problem.

If we are talking about card collecting, and in particular before WWII card collecting, there is a problem.

For the hobby of Pre-WWII card collecting to continue-not so much flourish-you need new blood. You also need a combination of historically curious combined with baseball enthusiast. That mindset has been shrinking and to an extent dying. It's not a large group these days. Just hoping for some new fans of old collecting.

[JollyElm]

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

[Mountaineer1999]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

+1 spot on

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

+1

Then all the scammers are getting much better at what they do. I do not think it will be long before even the grading companies can not tell the difference between real and fake. Even graded cards now are a crap shoot, SGC and old PSA slabs are super easy to crack and put in a reprint, trimmed, or lower end card and then you have the guy in Mexico from the PSA scam.

[tschock]

I think it also depends on what is meant by the hobby dying. The only way it will guarantee to die of is if NO new blood comes into the hobby. None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

Even if the new blood is only 1% of what it is now, I seriously doubt that pre-war cards will just "disappear". Someone will buy them up. Now that could mean that you might only get $100 for a card you spent $10K on years ago, but it won't mean the hobby of COLLECTING cards will die off. Unless your heirs plan on burning the cards for fuel rather than getting $0.01 on the dollar.

So if you mean the hobby as card COLLECTING, then no. If you mean the hobby as a business or means to make money, then maybe.

[Section103]

If it would hurry up and die, then I'll be able to buy a lot more cards for a lot less money.

[sbfinley]

The hobby isn't going anywhere. I was talking with an old dealer a couple weeks ago and he complaining about the falling sky and how the hobby would be dead in 50 years. The whole "90's Bubble/Remember When/We're all dying off" story.

Sorry, but the hobby isn't dying. It's changing. Just because show attendance and brick n' mortar sells are down doesn't mean the hobby is. Pre-War and vintage cards are at an all time high and something is always pumping value wise. In modern issues companies push and sell anything from $1 packs to $800 boxes and they are all popular in some respect. Heck, a card shop out in California buys up graded cards and memorabilia and repackages it as mystery product and charges up to $8,000 a box for the stuff and it sells out almost instantly. The hobby is as strong as it ever has been. It's just different.

Is baseball the most popular sport in America now? Nope, and it likely won't be a long while at the least, but attendance remains strong in most baseball cities and from a earnings standpoint the franchises are exceptionally well off. It has become a regional sport with loyal fan bases who will sustain it for the immediate future. Importantly to MLB, the popularity of college baseball continues to grow incrementally it seems each year, which will increase MLB popularity in the future as fans with college allegiances will follow alumni in the pros. The length of time spent in the minors will dampen this fascination somewhat, but more and more prospects are MLB ready faster then in the past. Plenty of kids in baseball cities, and outside baseball cities, collect and more and more often adults are driven to the hobby even if they didn't collect in their youth. Many of these collectors start with modern issues and work their way back to vintage issues.

[mrvster]

+1...

baseball here to stay .

I see the future of card collecting to go toward vintage once the younger population develop....they will realize the actual "history" of these cards...

just will be evolution...

[Centauri]

I agree with whoever said the next 30-40 years are solid. I worry about the kids who are 10-15 years old right now.

I started collecting in 1986 because everyone else I knew also collected. We would get together and trade, discuss, try to build sets, etc. I think much of the hobby today is made up of my generation still buying the new cards, but now it is like buying scratch off lotto tickets - open a pack not aiming for the set, but the inserts, and the REALLY RARE inserts (hurl).

My son is 12, plays 4 sports, and I haven't heard or seen him or any of his friends talk about cards. Right now the hobby has leveled off from a steep decline, led by people like me who collected as a kid but now have some disposable income to chase their dreams from childhood. I plan to collect for a long time yet. But 40 years from now, who will be the buyers?

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Section103

If it would hurry up and die, then I'll be able to buy a lot more cards for a lot less money.

+1 Hopefully I can outlive the hobby. But I doubt it.

[chipperhank44]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

I think there are a number of younger collectors on this board (myself included) who obsessed over perfect corners, serial numbers, shiny refractors, and strong sub-grades. But sooner or later the allure of owning something that is actually rare and not just manufactured to create the appearance of rarity takes over and vintage collecting is the next step. Also, getting burned by a few can't miss prospects or dealing with the inevitable depreciation of modern cards eventually turns collectors eyes to the appealing predictability of the vintage market. Then, once you buy your first vintage card, you experience the history and the work of art you are holding and it's hook line and sinker. IMO, as long as there is a modern card market, there is a pipeline of new vintage collectors.

[kamikidEFFL]

From my experience I basically started my collecting in the 90's. It basically was a bunch of 99cent packs of cards and looking for the hot rookie card 89 UD Griffey oh was that the card to have. Anyway I watched the hobby change from looking to collecting the sets n hot rookie cards or inserts to trade with friends. Then it went to game used memorabilia cards and autographs. Very tough cards to pull, something like 1:150,000 packs haha. It was fun but now seeing the new hobby all people care about are the 3 color patch autograph rc #'d to 5 to be worth something. I could see the new stuff pricing themselves out. My opinion obviously.

Anyway, I wish I listened to my uncle when I was real young and focus on the vintage stuff nope I was a stupid kid. what I'm trying to say is I changed my train of thought and figured go back to where things were simple and easy. I think we may see the same thing. Plus I have been to a few shows and see a bunch of young kids interested in the 50's stuff and even earlier. If you have a small amount of young ones interested and fathers/mothers showing their own kids the hobby it will continue to move forward. We can only hope.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by bigtrain

Are you a baseball fan to the exclusion of all other sports?
I am not and I am guessing that few are. Considering the growth
Of the US population, I would guess that there are
more baseball fans today than ever. I have no concerns about
baseball or the hobby going away.

This. Tom nails it. The idea that baseball is losing fans to football, hockey, basketball, soccer, etc is flawed. I love football, though I do admit that I've lost interest somewhat recently because of rule changes, and the scandals going on with some of the players. I also think the NFL Commissioner is an idiot that needs to step down. But, I've been a die hard Green Bay Packers fan pretty much since birth. I think my first word was Lombardi. I will love the Packers until the day I drop dead, and therefore, I will support the NFL, too. But I have loved the game of baseball, and the Brewers, for nearly as long. I love going to baseball games. I love watching it on television. I love reading about it, watching documentaries about it. Seeing old clips. And, of course, I love collecting baseball cards.

Baseball attendance in 2014 was about 74 million people. That's the seventh highest in the history of the game. Viewership of baseball might be down, but I think it's because there are so many more choices now. The game itself is not hurting at all. In fact, I would say that it's thriving.

I'm not worried about the hobby, either. I see new people joining the forum, and a good portion of them are much younger. That's encouraging. They're not only getting into the hobby, they're expressing an interest in the history of the game, and the vintage and pre-war periods. And if these new members are having fun, they're telling their friends, and some of them will join, too. When they come here, I will welcome them. I will offer to do whatever I can to help them. If I can provide advice, or education to help them make smart decisions, I will do that. I encourage people to send me messages with questions they might have. I will spend all the time needed to help them, and if I don't know an answer, I will work with them to find that answer.

Life is too short to worry about something that is beyond my control. I will enjoy the hobby as much as humanly possible while I am here. I will do everything I can to help my fellow hobbyists of all ages do the same. For my part, I will treat the people I meet with respect. I will deal with them honestly. I will do everything I can to set a good example, and I will report people I see that are trying to cheat, or steal from other hobbyists. That is all I can do. If everybody on this forum pledges to do the same, then I think our hobby will continue on for a long time. Baseball is always going to have a following. And naturally, there will always be people who want to learn about the game's history. And as long as there are baseball fans interested in the game's history, our hobby will continue on.

[MattyC]

I agree the whole "losing fans to NFL" logic is specious. They are not mutually exclusive. Not to mention the problems plaguing the NFL at the moment. In fact, my broader circle of friends and I have grown disinterested in the NFL in our 30's and more interested in MLB and NBA.

The "hobby future" thread seems to surface every few months in one form or another. There are enough passionate collectors out there to sustain it for many, many years. America's pastime, its fans, and the collectors of its historic memorabilia will be doing just fine in the decades to come.

And as someone else above said so well, our own health and well-being is much more likely to encounter problems-- so we better enjoy our cards while the getting's good.

[dru724]

Here's an interesting article on ESPN about how the decline/ death of baseball has been written about for about as long as the game itself:
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/th...line-articles/

[BearBailey]

Not really, I think there has been an uptick in the last 5 years, I know it will never be what it once was with shows every weekend and shops in every town but the shows I do go to Philly and the National seem to be better than they had been since the mid to late 90s.

[ValKehl]

"IMO, as long as there is a modern card market, there is a pipeline of new vintage collectors."

Trey, I think you hit the nail on the head!
Val

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I agree the whole "losing fans to NFL" logic is specious. They are not mutually exclusive. Not to mention the problems plaguing the NFL at the moment. In fact, my broader circle of friends and I have grown disinterested in the NFL in our 30's and more interested in MLB and NBA.

The "hobby future" thread seems to surface every few months in one form or another. There are enough passionate collectors out there to sustain it for many, many years. America's pastime, its fans, and the collectors of its historic memorabilia will be doing just fine in the decades to come.

And as someone else above said so well, our own health and well-being is much more likely to encounter problems-- so we better enjoy our cards while the getting's good.

Well said as usual, Matt. Funny, I almost used the same mutually exclusive wording, but I reworked my post.

When I was a kid, I loved basketball. I used to go see the Bucks at the old Mecca Arena in Milwaukee. The Bucks were really good then. But they always seemed to get knocked out by the Celtics in the playoffs. But now the game just isn't as good as it used to be. It's like fundamentals are a thing of the past.

With football, the rule changes are ruining the game. You can't even fart around the quarterback without a penalty being called. And on a deep ball, the cornerback has no room for error whatsoever. The refs call defensive pass interference at the drop of a hat. I know the league wants higher scoring games, but it's ridiculous right now.

I've decided to start watching hockey again. I've always loved it, and I need something else to get into. So, I'll follow the Penguins again, and I guess the Stars.

[EvilKing00]

I don't worry about that at all. Although most here love the game, some here do not, and just love collecting. And as far as the game relating to collecting im not sure it does. Im a huge met fan....sadly. I haven't been to a game now in a few years as the ownership is depressing. Even though I even get free season tix from the wifes job. Though I do read a met blog all the time.

But, in the last few few years I have bought more cards then I ever have, found net54, started collecting prewar & babe ruth cards amongst other things. So even though im not paying the attention to the game as I once did, im more into the hobby then ever.

I also think its more about collecting "old stuff", owning rare pieces of history if you will.

I know the main question is, will the 15-20 year olds now get older and start collecting? My answer would be yes. When I was that age I was in school, paying attention to girls and getting into trouble, the money I had was spent on that not a $500 piece of cardboard. but once a collector settles down, stops the fooling around hes got to collect something!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by EvilKing00

I don't worry about that at all. Although most here love the game, some here do not, and just love collecting. And as far as the game relating to collecting im not sure it does. Im a huge met fan....sadly. I haven't been to a game now in a few years as the ownership is depressing. Even though I even get free season tix from the wifes job. Though I do read a met blog all the time.

But, in the last few few years I have bought more cards then I ever have, found net54, started collecting prewar & babe ruth cards amongst other things. So even though im not paying the attention to the game as I once did, im more into the hobby then ever.

I also think its more about collecting "old stuff", owning rare pieces of history if you will.

I know the main question is, will the 15-20 year olds now get older and start collecting? My answer would be yes. When I was that age I was in school, paying attention to girls and getting into trouble, the money I had was spent on that not a $500 piece of cardboard. but once a collector settles down, stops the fooling around hes got to collect something!

I agree with this. I don't care for MLB whatsoever but I love the game (and play softball this evening, in a weekly league). I think our hobby is fine. With the advent of the internet I think it actually grew exponentially. I also equate it more to collecting antiques, but with more purpose, than I do collecting cards like we (us old guys) did as a kid. Today's new card collecting is pretty much nothing like what we did. (as far as I remember ).

[z28jd]

If you want to help, buy some cheap box of cards and hand out packs during Halloween. You can buy a box of Donruss on ebay for as low as $10 and I'm sure other stuff from that era can be found around that same price or less. Give the kid cards that are 25+ years old, maybe you get them hooked on the hobby or their dad sees it and remembers collecting and gets back into it. Do your part. By reading this far, you agree to do this and if you don't, the penalty is a crease on your favorite card(non-negotiable).