Do you worry about our hobby dying?

[exitmusicgreen]

Very interesting thread. I'm a 31-year-old collector who returned to the hobby late last year after about a 21-year hiatus. I know I'm not the only one.. in particular, many "born again" collectors stumble upon the world of modern cards via searching for collectibles of their favorite players via ebay, then finding it odd that modern cards are selling at unimagined prices, then doing research. That moment when things make sense opens up a whole new world.

So I think modern collecting has a role in producing + sustaining future interest.

As some have pointed out, the allure of vintage can emerge given the oft-maddening unpredictability of modern cards. I still collect modern due to the excitement factor plus feeling very connected to the game's current crop of players. But my (tiny yet growing) vintage collection gives me equal, if not more pride.

[bravesfan22]

Modern card collecting is very popular. Prospects are what people collect the most now, well invest in i should say. However even the "investors" usually have a player or team that they collect as well. The prospect buy and sell usually is what funds their personal collection pieces.

If you get on the blowout cards board or just look at ebay at modern topps or panini certified autograph card prices then you will see the hobby is alive in kicking and this side of the hobby holds a wide age group. Also a big bonus is I see a lot of parents that are involved with the hobby sharing it with their kids and doing the hobby together. Which is great!

I'm 26 and i mainly dabble in modern cards but my love for the history of baseball brought me to this board and started to get me into vintage cards as well. I think as people around my age learn more about the modern cards they end up looking into the vintage cards and wanting to learn and maybe collect them as well so I would say as long as card collecting on some aspect is happening then people will always end up supporting vintage cards as well.

I think the biggest movement we may see is people getting into vintage football cards instead of baseball due to the popularity of the NFL and modern football cards but who knows.

Between topps, bowman, panini and leaf there are well over 20 baseball products out per year. Same with football and basketball probably has atleast 10 products if not more and people open these by the case not just the box. I actually think the hobby is getting more popular in recent years thanks to things like case breaks. So again I guess to sum it up I think as long as modern card collecting is doing well their will be a steady flow of new vintage collecters as well. Just like most things, you start with the new stuff but you always go back to the roots.

-Adam

[mrvster]

great perspective

[yankees23]

I'm 36 and like others, just started collecting again about 3 years ago. I don't think cards will ever in my lifetime become completely irrelevant. As long as there are a few collectors prices will always at least hold. Look at the prices nowadays compared to 20 years ago when there was so many more collectors...not a huge difference. Collecting of anything is booming now partly IMO because of the ease of buying online. I watched a collectors show recently featuring Corbin Bernsen and his snow globe collection. They valued his collection at like $600k. How many snow globe collectors are out there? If snow globes can keep their value baseball cards will be fine.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by yankees23

I watched a collectors show recently featuring Corbin Bernsen and his snow globe collection. They valued his collection at like $600k. How many snow globe collectors are out there? If snow globes can keep their value baseball cards will be fine.

These "appraisals" always have to be taken with a grain of salt and understand what they are really saying here. There is a HUGE difference between sale value and replacement value. In this instance as an example, I doubt he would get close to $600K if he sold his collection, but it could easily cost him $600K to put this collection together should he need to replace it.

I think many times the amount seems high because those touting the value are referring to replacement (intentional or not).

[1880nonsports]

and prices dropping while sharing common elements and dependencies are two different things. Price fluctuations and availabilty are each a function of the other after the imact of an economy. I think the hobby as a tangent of all collectibles will go on forever as beyond being a commodity cards are a somwhat tangible piece of the past. I doubt card collecting will ever approach the levels of the cash rich 1980's and 1990's nor the level of interest it received as a new investment concept. It was an explosive time - selling was about the sizzle AND the steak. Enough time and a few reality checks have precipitated in the OVERALL decline of the prices we are experiencing in all but the finest material and whatever specific issues are "hot" at the moment.
Lower prices at some point restricts cards from coming to the market so it's a good thing/ bad thing for me as a collector. As a dealer - at least in theory - one's buying is dictated by the availabilty of the product their customers will pay for.
The hobby isn't dying - just experiencing a correction. I do see it becoming a smaller hobby - perhaps mirroring the journey of stamps and coins. Cards, coins, bottle-caps, and similar things from pre-hyper-technological times were more of an activity for the participants - more relevent as well.
Please feel free to provide me with details when and if the end comes as I'll want to let the person holding my N167 Buffalo Bill know. In any event I suppose I'll continue to collect until the question of my demise is broached. Hopefully not on a thread in a chat board The best thing about having a lot of people doing the same thing you are is you feel less stupid but it also makes the room crowded.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by 1880nonsports

I doubt card collecting will ever approach the levels of the cash rich 1980's and 1990's nor the level of interest it received as a new investment concept. It was an explosive time - selling was about the sizzle AND the steak. Enough time and a few reality checks have precipitated in the OVERALL decline of the prices we are experiencing in all but the finest material and whatever specific issues are "hot" at the moment.

Since the question was posted on the Pre-War forum, I'm assuming the "hobby" refers to collecting Pre-War cards.

If this is the case, I don't understand the quote above at all. I was collecting these cards in the 1980s and 1990s. I can't think of any baseball card made between 1887 and 1930 that could be had for less today than it could have been in the 1980s or 1990s. The prices continued to explode through until about the Fall of 2008. Even when the market for these cards "crashed" in 2008, the prices were still a heck of a lot higher than they were back in the 1980s and 1990s. And today a lot of those cards are way up from 2008-2009 again.

Cards from the major sets of the 1930s did soften when people realized they were not that scarce. In truth, I think some 1933 Goudey and 1934-36 Diamond Stars actually sold for more in the late 1990s then they would fetch today - especially commons and low-level stars and HOFers.

The part of the "hobby" that died in the 1990s was largely comprised of thousands of speculators trading case quantities of 1989 Upper Deck, 1987 Donruss and the like. When that garbage pile collapsed, those people left. So what? Good riddance.

The value of Pre-War cards was not hurt a bit by any of that.

Cheers,
Blair

[yankees23]

Originally Posted by tschock

These "appraisals" always have to be taken with a grain of salt and understand what they are really saying here. There is a HUGE difference between sale value and replacement value. In this instance as an example, I doubt he would get close to $600K if he sold his collection, but it could easily cost him $600K to put this collection together should he need to replace it.

I think many times the amount seems high because those touting the value are referring to replacement (intentional or not).

I agree these appraisals are usually inflated but I was just illustrating the point that other collectibles that are not anywhere near as popular as baseball cards still seem to hold their value. On that same show there was a guy who collected vintage phones and his collection was appraised at like $200k. Seems like anything that is "vintage" is being collected these days.

[SAllen2556]

The hobby won't die. Ever. There's way too many geeky people like all of us too enamored in the history of baseball and history itself. And that will never change. People like old stuff - they always have and they always will. Hell, people collect old barbed wire for crying out loud!

The big advantage kids have today is the internet and the instant access to learning. The history of the Detroit Tigers is a click away. And that allure is powerful. I can learn how Gehringer, Cochrane, and Greenberg brought Detroit its first world championship and soon enough the thought of owning a card, or a photo, or an autograph of that player will lure me in. In short, there will always be new collectors of old stuff.

And with the technology of today I can buy a card from a guy in Florida after examining it in a hi-res scan and then have it shipped right to my door, all at a competitive price.

The internet with ebay and sites like this have put virtual museums right in front of our eyes - expert opinions and access to research all included. And the technology will only get better. I suspect that one day in the future we will be able to accurately date cards and detect alterations as well as absolutely verify autographs, all for cheap.

Think about it, 25 years ago if you wanted to buy a '34 Charlie Gehringer Goudey card or a Mantle signed baseball, how exactly would you have gone about it? And how risky would the venture have been? Go to a show? Mail order?

Parting thought: I wouldn't worry (or care) if every card company went out of business tomorrow. I don't think it would have any negative effect on the value of someone's collection.

[packs]

Funny you should mention barbed wire. I'm reading "Inherent Vice" by Thomas Pynchon right now and there's a detective character in it that brags about the pristine barbed wire he just bought for his collection.